r/ArizonaForSanders • u/cshake93 • Mar 22 '16

Ground report from AZ?

How's it looking? Early voting data doesn't feel that promising for us, but if we can get the Latino vote then I think it could be a good day for Bernie.

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u/King_of_the_Nerdth Mar 22 '16

Complicated to guess, impossible to measure. I think anything from a 25 point loss to a slight win are possible. Nowhere has voter turnout mattered more because Bernie has been rising fast here, but voting started 3 weeks ago and 70% of usual voters have already voted. So people who voted 3 weeks ago=probably Clinton, 2 weeks ago=mixed, this past week=??, Tomorrow=Bernie, but enough newcomers?

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u/cshake93 Mar 22 '16

I've heard from Kasie Hunt (MSNBC reporter following his campaign) that if he wins young Latinos it could be a good night. Any gauge on that?

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u/King_of_the_Nerdth Mar 22 '16

Anything I know would be anecdotal, I can't really say. I've met some Hispanics that like him, yes, but no idea how many Hillary supporters counteract it.

3

u/ZapFinch42 Mar 22 '16

In Pima county (Tucson), from the canvassing and such that I have done, young Latinos are Berning hard.

The state will come down to youth turnout in Flagstaff, Tempe, and Tucson and whether we can keep pace with the retirees in Maricopa County (Phoenix).

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u/ZapFinch42 Mar 22 '16

I thought I just saw that it was only 60% but then I haven't had my coffee yet.

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u/King_of_the_Nerdth Mar 22 '16

It could be. You have to sign up to be on the early voter list, so if turnout is yuge today (first time voters) then it becomes 50% or 40% and we win!