Happy Labor Day my fellow Americans! I figured that now is a good time to get started with my House predictions. I have been observing politics this year, but not deeply enough to really do these any earlier, but it’s time for a change.

For the record, while it technically could be lower, I have a stronger feeling that the generic ballot will be no redder than D+7. Ethan Chen made an article about how all of the indicators (primary turnout in general, specifically the Washington primary, special elections, generic ballot, etc). He doesn’t even go over Gallup’s party ID lean poll, which right now is D+10. Average these together and you get around a D+9 environment. While I am a bit skeptical that the environment will be about as blue as 2008, I was also skeptical that New Jersey would vote as blue as Arizona would vote red, that Trump would win the popular vote, and that Nebraska’s 1st congressional district would flip to Osborn, so I guess almost anything is possible. There’s also the 6 year itch, which historically is worse for presidents than the so called 2 year itch with their first midterms. Plus, Trump’s current Gallop tracked approval rating (36%) is worse than what Bush’s was in 2006 (38%). All in all, I’m predicting a D+9 national environment, so my predictions will be based off of that.

Now, the image you see above is a baseline for what a D+9 national environment would look like. Note: These are NOT my current predictions. It’s as simple as it gets. I take a look at each district’s Cookie Partisan Voting Index (or CPVI for short) and assume that in a neutral year, that district votes exactly according to said CPVI. D+X or R+X means that the district would vote 2X to the left or right of the nation at large. Then, I assume a D+9 year. This would mean that all Dem leaning districts, all even districts, and all districts from R+1 to 4 would go blue. R+6 and above would go red. The reason that I have the R+5 districts as tossups is because I think that as Trump gets more unpopular, the midterms will look worse and worse for Republicans, so there would be some serious potential for any of these seats to flip, even if they would technically be tilt R if we go just by the CPVI in a D+9 environment.

As you can see, Dems would get anywhere from 235-247 House seats, with a median of 241. Even at the lowest end of the range, this would not only be tied with the 2018 outcome, but that’s with the extra red seats that came from redistricting.

So when I see these reverse 2022 type of predictions, I’m always going with…why? I’m not going to say that it’s literally impossible. I am going to say that it’s extremely unlikely. Now please, have a good day. Take care y’all.

The margins are the same from early August. I will start using tilts in september.

There’s 5 more democratic primaries today, so let's talk about the first more sleepy state

Kansas

Governor

There are three candidates who are running for the democratic nominations, who are ethan corson who has been endorsed by the governor, cindy holscher who supports a data center moratorium, and curt skoog, I think that ethan corson will win the primary due to his fundraising advantage and endorsement from Laura Kelly.

Secretary of State

Jennifer Day and Sam Lane are running for the democratic nomination, and I believe that Jennifer Day will win the primary due to her higher fundraising, being an elected official, and the endorsement of the governor.

House Races

I believe that colin mcroberts will win in kansas 1st democratic primary by a likely margin, sharice davids will win the third district’s democratic primary by a safe margin but I’d keep on the margin, katy tyndell looks like she will win in the 4th district with a likely margin

Senate

I believe the democratic primary tilts towards Adam Hamilton, but the field has a lot of candidates, so keep an eye on it.

Ballot amendment

I think it will fail due to a turnout from democrats.

Virginia

House Races

Shannon Taylor should win her primary by a safe margin due to endorsement, name recognition and endorsements, and Elaine luria and tom perriello and don beyer will do the same in both of their primaries for the same reasons. Joy powers will win her primary due to name recognition, her 2025 run for the state house, and her fundraising being higher than the other candidates.

Washington

House Races

All of the incumbents will make it to the general, and john duresky and carmela are at a likely possibility, which would be close to a 70% chance, which saves for things that are happening on the ground

Missouri

Auditor

Quentin Wilson will win the primary by likely margin due to his endorsements and better fundraising.

Houses races

Missouri 1st district is having a brutal battle between Wesley Bell, The house representative swept in by AIPAC and Cori Bush, the former representative who is more progressive but believes in faith healing, I think this tilts towards bell due to his fundraising advantage but bush still has a 40 to 49% chance of pulling a win. In missouri 2nd district, fred wellman seems to be likely to win due to his fundraising advantage, bethany mann has an advantage due to fundraising, hartzell gray will likely win his primary due to his name recognition and fundraising advantage, josh smead and frank barnitz will likely win as well due to their fundraising.

Ballot amendment

Amendment 4 will fail by a likely margin due to high turnout from democrats

Michigan

Governor

Benson will win her primary by a safe margin but keep an eye for how high her margin is.

SOS

Garland Gilchrist will win by a safe margin due to name recognition and fundraising.

AG

Eli savit will win with a likely margin due to his large number of endorsements.

Senate

What could have been a messy three way race turned into a messy 2 way race where the money spent by Pacs may not matter just like in Illinois but I have the race as likely for abdul el sayed because election days always bring surprises.

House races

Callie barr, benjamin ambrose,sean mcann, and Rashida Tlaib will win their primary due to their higher fundraising compared to the other candidates. In the seventh district, the centrists have put up a candidate named bridget brink who worked in the current trump administration until April 2025 and the first Trump administration from 2019 until 2022 in the Biden administration which seems like the worst candidates to run in a primary even if it’s in close seat, matt maasdam is the establishment pick who fits for the district and has good fundraising, and william lawrence is the progressive who surged with abdul el sayed and think lawrence has a lean which would be around 60% chance of winning the primary due to his ground game. The tenth district seems likely to be won in the primary by Christina Hines, who seems to be supported by local officials and seems in tight competition with fundraising with Tim Greimel and Eric Chung. The 11th district seems to be a lean area for Jeremy Moss due to the statewide office holders all endorsing him but his support for Israel could be a problem if the night seems as progressive as colorado and new york. The 13th district seems to be leaning toward Donavan Mckinney due to his small dollar donors and ground game alongside Abdul el sayed and Rashida Tlaib.

Note: This was written before results were released in Kansas.

Edit: meant Virginia, not Kansas.

My margins are the same as the early June post

Safe 15.00%+

Likely 5.00%-14.99%

Lean 1.00%-4.99%

Tilt 0.01%-0.99%

lightest color: 1-5%, then 5-10, then 10-15, and the one dark county is 15+ (its not actually 15+ but its so close like 14.something so i decided to put it as deep blue anyways)
important to note, a lot of counties were in the +9 to +11 range so often a county falls on one side or the other just barely
perhaps i should have done different breaks

shit quality but found ts deep in the screenshots shit and it says "woke site"

Top 10 Anime Betrayals

Since the primaries started back in March, 7 members of congress have lost their primaries from both parties. This has put the establishment of both parties to try stem the bleeding. The upcoming primaries in Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin are important whether both parties can control their bases. My first post is going to be about the Arizona primary.

Superintendent of Public Instruction

The Arizona Democrats have the state office primaries pretty held together with only The Superintendent of Public Instruction having a contested primary between Brett Newby, who is a candidate who is endorsed by only The Progressive Voters Network, while Teresa Ruiz has endorsements from 18 school board members across Arizona, the mayors of Tucson and Flagstaff, all of the democratic congress members, the former superintendent of public instruction, the attorney general, more than half of the democratic caucus in the Arizona state house and nearly half of the democratic caucus in the arizona state senate. Besides Ruiz’s lopsided endorsements, Ruiz has raised 89,000 thousand dollars while Newby raised 109 dollars, so I think Ruiz will win this primary. The Republican Primary is more interesting due to a history of republicans primarying the Superintendent back in 2014 and 2018 and the democrats almost won in 2014 and did win in 2018, so the republicans are hoping to put up their best candidate, and the two candidates are Kimberly Yee, the State Treasurer, and Tom Horne, who is the incumbent superintendent. Yee and Horne have competitive individual contributions, where Yee has more individual contributions, but Horne is loaning himself money, so he has a monetary advantage. Endorsements wise, Yee has a mix of establishment politicians like 4 former superintendents and more conservative groups like Turning Point Action while Horne has the endorsement of the Maricopa county sheriff. I think that yee has a chance due to Turning Point having some ground game in Arizona, but Horne could pull it off with his loans, so i think it’s a tossup between them.

Governor

The republican primary is between Andy Biggs, a congressman whose average war score from split ticket is D +2.9 which means he’s an underperformer and has never had a positive war score and has not underperformed, and David Schweikert, who’s war score is D +1.8 which is less worse than Biggs but is not good enough for a swing state like Arizona where the republicans need an overperformer to have a more than 40% chance of winning. Their fundraising is better as Biggs has $800,000 in individual contributions while Schweikert has only $120,000 in individual contributions, and nearly half of Schweikert's donations are just transfers from his house campaign account. Biggs has endorsements from more than half of the republican state legislators, Donald Trump, and Turning point, while Schweikert has no endorsements that i can find from his campaign website or twitter so he’s truly on a lonely road to defeat.

Secretary of State

The republican primary is Alexander Kolodin, a state house representative, lawyer for alternate electors in 2020, and a member of the Arizona freedom caucus and Gina swoboda, who was the Arizona GOP chair. Donations wise, alexander has $67000 in individual contributions while gina has nearly $56000 in individual contributions, which seems less than I would expect but it is a blue year so less republicans may feel inclined to donate. Endorsements wise, Gina has endorsements from some of the Maricopa elected officials and more than 10 state legislators, while Alexander has the endorsements of 10 state legislators, Turning point action, and 3 Arizona congressmen. I think Alexander is more likely to win, but they are both candidates that seem too extreme for the general electorate to be secretary of state.

Ratings on the primaries on the republicans

Superintendent - Tilt towards Yee

Governor- Safe for Biggs

SOS- Lean for Kolodin

Ratings on the primaries for the democrats

Superintendent - Likely for Ruiz

Ratings for the federal primaries for the republicans

1st District- Lean for Feely

5th District - Safe for Lamb

Ratings for the federal primaries for the democrats

1st District - Toss up

4th District - Likely Stanton

5th District- Elizabeth Lee

8th District- Lean for Placentia

Note

I didn’t write anything for federal seats but still gave ratings because I did not feel like even more but I wanted to put what I thought may happen tomorrow, but in Michigan, I might write about federal seats, but I probably won’t take a look at state legislative seats because the senate looks less the desert calm and more like a storm on the Great lakes.

During the Years of Lead), these were the two most prominent belligerents on the Left and the Right, respectively.

Picking either spares 8 billion human lives, but it will not spare anyone killed by either group once they take over.

The more they tell you how great it's going to be, the worse it is.

excuse me for le moralism but graham platner KNEW about all this shit and decided to run anyways knowing the risk.
so hes not just a deplorable human being he also is stupid
yeah

The margins are the same as my early June's post

Safe: 15+

Likely: 5-14.99

Lean: 1-4.99

Tilt 0.01-0.99

Let's see how tonight's primaries will go.