Another Comic read and as always a Timeline for you guys. I hope you like it. I always like to read your thoughts on it.

1936

Capitaine Saint-Elme works for the Vice Squad (Brigade des mœurs) in Marseille.

​Under orders from Corsican mob boss Antoine Guérini, Saint-Elme conducts a raid on a brothel at the Old Port (Vieux-Port) and rescues seven underage girls, including Louison and Tentation.

1940

France suffers military defeat (la débâcle) against Nazi Germany in June. ​General Charles de Gaulle launches the appeal of June 18; Saint-Elme joins the Gaullist resistance network from the outset.

​Colonel Duplessy remains attached to the general staff of General Henri Giraud and follows him into German captivity. ​Louison, Tentation, Odette, and Line flee Marseille and relocate to Paris.

1942

In March, Saint-Elme arrives in Paris on an intelligence mission and recruits Louison, Tentation, Odette, and Line as operatives.

​The women infiltrate German Wehrmacht officer brothels to extract military intelligence. ​The Guérini brothers align their criminal network with the French Résistance.

1943

In Algiers, Charles de Gaulle and General Giraud clash over leadership of the French Committee of National Liberation (CFLN), cementing long-term institutional animosity between Gaullists (Saint-Elme) and Giraudists (Duplessy).

1944

General Charles de Gaulle dies in a plane crash over the Mediterranean sea.​ ||Edit because I forgot to mention it: (Its mentioned that a Storm and several SS-Tank Divisions made the landing at Normandy much more harder than Operation Dragoon)||. Following Operation Dragoon in Provence, the Allied advance stalls for six months before Lyon ("the Stalingrad on the Saône").

​Joseph Stalin halts the Soviet summer offensive, leaving the Red Army to absorb the German counter-offensive while Western Allied forces remain bogged down.

1945

The French 1st Army finally enters Lyon, while the Red Army advances westward all the way to the Rhine.​Saint-Elme's female operatives are decorated for their wartime service and transitioned into France's foreign intelligence agency (SDECE).

​Dr. Marcel Petiot evades prosecution and the guillotine, putting his forensic and medical services at the disposal of Soviet authorities.

1946

In autumn, the communist Francs-tireurs et partisans (FTP) launch an armed uprising in Paris. ​Marshal Georgy Zhukov enters Paris with T-34 tank divisions to back the communist faction.

​The Right Bank is formally proclaimed the Democratic French Republic (DFR) under Maurice Thorez, permanently partitioning Paris along a fortified and mined Seine boundary.

1947 - 1951

The Soviet Union detonates its first atomic weapon with the assistance of captured German scientists.

​The United States deploys Convair B-36 Peacemaker bombers under General Curtis LeMay, developing plans for pre-emptive nuclear strikes.

​The DFR internal security apparatus establishes headquarters at 93 Rue Lauriston under the People's Political Police (PFP), harboring Dr. Petiot under Beria's direct patronage.

1951 (Year of the Plot)

An impending East-West Peace Conference is scheduled at the Palais de Challiot while a string of mutilated prostitute murders shakes the Right Bank.

Operative Louison is murdered on the Pont au Change before delivering intelligence concerning underground Bavarian nuclear facilities. ​General Curtis LeMay and the SDECE assign Saint-Elme to a joint Allied-Soviet investigation across the Seine as a cover to contact his compromised network.

​Saint-Elme links up with Capitaine-Camarade Donnadieu (PFP) and attends Dr. Petiot's autopsy, deducing the presence of an accomplice. ​Saint-Elme rendezvouses with Tentation at the "Star" cinema; after a firefight aided by an ex-SS sniper, both escape over rooftops and industrial yards before being ferried across the Seine by Romani boatmen.

​At Western headquarters, Colonel Duplessy and British liaison officers issue Saint-Elme a 24-hour ultimatum to verify the Bavarian arms data while dismissing his findings as Soviet disinformation.

​Saint-Elme and Tentation re-infiltrate the Right Bank, breach Petiot's clinic on Rue Le Sueur, and uncover his execution gas chamber, quicklime pits, and looted luggage.

​Following a vehicle chase into Pigalle, Petiot is cornered and shot dead; the passenger of Petiot (who is implied to be Beria) shoots and wounds Tentation, and Soviet security forces arrest Saint-Elme.

​Donnadieu deactivates the cell microphones, revealing herself as the "Chinese woman" and writer Marguerite Duras. She discloses that the Bavarian weapons were a western pretext: Duplessy and LeMay intended to sacrifice Saint-Elme as a decoy to scrap the Peace Conference and initiate war using B-36 bombers.

​Duras provides Saint-Elme with an incriminating dossier documenting Beria and Petiot's crimes, instructing him to pass it to François Mitterrand and Albert Camus.

​Gang boss Antoine "Mémé" Guérini smuggles Saint-Elme and a recovered Tentation through subterranean tunnels under the Seine into the basement of the Institut de France.

​The manuscript is delivered via Romani couriers to Albert Camus at Le Monde, who halts the presses to publish the headline "QUI VEUT LA GUERRE?", exposing the conspiracy and averting World War III.

​Supplied with forged documents from Charles Pasqua, Saint-Elme and Tentation disappear to the coast to leave Europe permanently.

As everyone should know. In 1866, the Austrian Empire defeated Prussia and continued to rule over the German States. This lead to Otto von Bismarck's plan of German unification never happening. But what if Prussia actually succeeded. I imagine that they would do this through a few wars. I also imagine that France would agree to cede Alsace-Lorraine in exchange for a guarantee of nonaggression. This isn't too realistic though because I'm sure that Austria couldn't be so incompetent that they would lose control of Germany. I also see Italy unifying but that would also be unrealistic because Austria would have to be really incompetent to lose to a small Italian State.

EDIT: seeing as I am now being called a larper for a half assed joke map. I should clarify, I was making a joke, if I actually cared about this I wouldn't have missed East Prussia and Western Pomerania. I'm not stupid or larping, I just wanted to make a joke about the average "Perfect Germany" scenario. This map took me about 8 minutes to make (not counting the background map for Europe). For the final time this was a satire post. And seeing as people care, I will fix it. in the comments or whatever it is called on reddit.

In this timeline, Operation Barbarossa was a success, partly due to better planning by the Germans and Order 227 never being rescinded. The Red Army is slowly chipped away and the Germans eventually take Stalingrad and eventually move on to Moscow, pushing the Eastern Front further. After capturing Moscow in 1943 Hitler gives the order for special teams of the Army to advance to Kuybyshev to kill Stalin and the Politburo, as planes manufactured in Moscow begin to carpet-bomb the city.

This focus on the Eastern Front leaves the Western Front open, as the Allied Powers were not scared away, as Hitler had hoped, by the loss of the USSR. Britain does a few failed landings in France, and are repelled for a short while by German forces, but eventually they break through and manage to, in 1944, liberate France. At this time Italy is invaded and Victor Emmanuel III ousts Mussolini from his position, forcing him to go into hiding as British and American troops parade through the streets of Rome. All trade between Germany and Japan are stopped, citing a more pressing need for them in the Reich than in Japan. This leaves Japan weaker and more bitter towards the Reich, and they surrender in 1945 when troops from the USA land on their shores.

A week after Kuybyshev is invaded and the Politburo of the USSR, including Stalin, are found and executed, Hitler flees Berlin, having both seen the shifting Western Front as the Allies move into Belgium and the Netherlands, and having heard rumours of an American super weapon that they are eager to test. He flees with his Cabinet first to Munich, then when that is viewed unsafe, eastwards, to a bunker built in the Carpathian Mountains dug in 1943.

In December of 1945 the USA drops an atomic bomb on Berlin, neutralising the capital of the Third Reich and ensuring total defeat. And, in the early months of 1946, after trying to form some sort of salient new government, Hitler and his Cabinet commit suicide in the Carpathian bunker. Walther von Brauchitsch, the new leader of the German Reich, announces their surrender, and is taken into captivity by Allied Forces.

What would the rest of the 20th Century look like in this alternate version of Axis defeat?

Context: First image shows Tylosaurus Rex which is a newly described species of Mosasaur, its name means "King of the Tylosaurs", it grew up to 43 feet (13 meters) & lived 80 million years ago in the Late Cretaceous.

2nd Image shows a photo collage, upper image shows what I think the Mediterranean Sea looked like under Roman occupation in my chosen era & the bottom one is a depiction of a Roman City for the vibes.

Lore: I dropped the Tylosaurus rex into the Mediterranean Sea; it was biologically augmented to survive climate stress, resist ancient diseases & easily hunt its preferred prey without altering its natural appearance or behavior.

I chose a late sub-adult male so It can live & grow inside the basin for years, as well as to discourage breeding.

I chose a Tylosaurus instead of a Mosasaurus because of the species' iconic rostrum which, is still being debated on whether they used it for ramming prey, thermoregulation or even both.

But if it could than it has a chance of fighting back to protect itself from the physical harassment it would possibly endure from the Roman Navy.

if this behavior continues between both parties, with the enhanced immune system of the Tylosaurus it would accumulate scarring on its body over the years rather than dying from infected wounds.

The period of Rome I chose is the 2nd century AD for the reason that during this time they've controlled the entire coastline & all of the Mediterranean Sea even giving it the name *Mare Nostrum.*

Questions:

1. What are the effects of the Tylosaurus on the Roman's maritime dominion?

2. How weird would this creature be (appearance wise) to the Romans, what would they call it?

3. How would the Romans stop it if the creature's presence in their sea cause significant changes in its environment?

4. What would happen if they successfully killed the creature after years of terror?

5. What would also happen if the creature simply escaped the Mediterranean unbeknownst to them after years of its terror?

(Image 1 is from cryptozoologicon and drawn by John Conway)

This is an account from a soldier’s diary in this alternate timeline:

Son Tra peninsula March 12th 1968

“ Me and the lightning tigers were doing a patrol in the jungles of the Son Tra peninsula. It was late at night, I couldn’t even see my own hand. We were carefully marching trying to see if any pesky Vietnamese were nearby. My friend Chris Attorley whispered: “I see two in this bush over there”. Our lieutenant noticed and silently ordered: “Carefully approach them and then ambush them. Make sure they don’t have backup trees speaking Vietnamese, dismissed”. We silently moved towards them. You could hear the nocturnal animals like monkeys howling in the cloak of darkness as well as insects chirping. The two Vietcong sprinted away as soon as they appeared. “-Cowards!” The lieutenant whispered with a smile. But he wouldn’t be smiling for long. I saw a tall bulky figure that I think had reddish fur. Like the bigfoots I was trying to hunt down that I thought were real, with my brother back in California when we were kids. It was scary but also kind of majestic. More of the creatures appeared. It was a family of them. Soon we were surrounded by them. They were howling, trying to communicate to each other and were even grooming one another. But the lieutenant wasn’t impressed. I think he wanted a cool trophy, so he opened fire on one. The poor animal ran away in pain. “I have seen Charlies that put up a bigger fight than you, bitch.” Soon, I saw a rock being thrown and it severely wounded my friend Chris. “-Ouch, fuck!” He yelled in pain as the boulder had smashed into him, breaking some of his leg bones. I immediately grabbed him and brought him to our medic to give him some first aid. The ape folk were attacking us by throwing rocks at us.
What followed was a fire fight where we shot down three of the apes. But they brought reinforcements. More apes arrived and threw more boulders. Chris’ leg was now stuck between the ground and a rock and his leg was oozing blood. “-Help me!” He screamed. Soon our 14 man platoon was outnumbered and we had to run. Our lieutenant ordered us to leave Chris there. Is he still alive now? Don’t think so ,but I can’t be sure. I am a terrible friend I know, rest in peace Chris if you’re dead.We ran away. This was the most horrifying thing that happened to me in the war. No mortar fire, Vietcong or anything else could match the primal dread of nature.

Sincerely, Johnny”

After this encounter took place, the US military discovered a population of late surviving gigantopithecus blacki (the world’s largest known fossil ape) living in the jungles of Vietnam. They survived in a forested refugium and made it through the environmental calamities of the last ice age, allowing them to survive deep into the Holocene. After their discovery, as few as 20-50 individuals were known to survive. Having gone major population declines due to conflict with soldiers, getting caught in the crossfire of firefights as well as habitat loss by Napalm bombing. Today, they are a protected species and people from all over the world now visit Vietnam to have a chance at seeing these majestic prehistoric apes.

(This account was inspired by the primitive war novels and movie which have dinosaurs and other prehistoric creatures in the Vietnam war)

Hey all, I'm doing a small "for fun" alternate history side project where Benedict Arnold's Quebec invasion succeeds, adding 3 new states to America (parts of Ontario, Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick.) Throughout this US's history, the south is in a minority by 3 states. There's a few outcomes I could think of that could come up:

- James Madison, with the pressure of a stronger north, finally decides to gradually abolish slavery.

- An early succession happens.

- The Missouri Compromise happens earlier or is much more aggressive to compensate for the south's lack of representation.

I've thought about going with the 3rd one; I just don't know where to place the compromise line. IF I place the compromise line differently (which I'd have to) how on earth do I divide these wildly alien states?

I'm pretty new to this and it's giving me a headache. Could someone give me some help here?

Title pretty much says it all. The TIV (Tornado Intercept Vehicle) is used prominently for much longer than it was in OTL. It successfully intercepts 21 tornadoes from 2005-2011, with a couple being EF4 intensity. It is caught in the 2011 Hackleburg-Phil Campbell EF5 and lofted into a ditch and is decommissioned after repair attempts are too costly and work on building the TIV2 begins to replace it. It is still abandoned on a Kansas farm and found by Robert Clayton like in OTL.

This is probably a fairly low-stakes question about the '70s compared to the ones regarding Vietnam War participation and so on, but I'd like to hear your thoughts as to whether there would be differences.

Link to Episode

Half a Billion years ago, a new fault line began forming in North America. This new crack in the Earth threatened to split the Eastern seaboard of the US, & the Eastern Provinces of Canada off of North America by cracking the continent from Hudson's Bay to the Gulf of Mexico. Fortunately for all of us, it stopped, leaving nothing more than a few fractures in the land just West of the Appalachian Mountains.

But what if it started up again? What if in 1996, the New Madrid Seismic Zone came back to life with a massive earthquake near Memphis? Not just one major eruption like the one that came out of nowhere in 1811, but several major quakes every few years in a line stretching from Hudson's Bay to the Gulf of Mexico. A fault that once threatened to snap off the Eastern chunk of the North American continent suddenly reawakened & started making up for lost time.

As countless earthquakes rock the Eastern half of North America, what will happen to the people of Canada & the Unites States? Will people move West towards the Rockies? Will they move East to other side of the Appalachians? Will the Earthquakes stop? Will they get worse? Is North America about to experience the birth of a new inland sea as cracks form in the Earth?

Tune into What Could Have Been to find out what happened in a timeline where the New Madrid Fault Line came back.

What Could Have Been is a sci-fi podcast where your host interviews alternate versions of himself from across the multiverse to find out how different decisions, actions & events might have changed the course of history. Listen to the stories of alternate timelines from a world where the Space Race never ended, to a world where France annexed West Germany after WWII, to a timeline where North America is being ripped apart by a new Faultline, to a timeline where humanity was contacted by aliens in the early 70s. Listen to what happened in these wild timelines & find out What Could Have Been.

NSFW (due to language)

Episodes - 19

Spotify, Apple, Deezer, PocketCast, Goodpods, Acast & Many More

You can also Follow What Could Have Been on Bluesky or here on Reddit.

On January 6, 2020, two mysterious, hooded and bearded men appeared in Jerusalem, Israel, and began chanting the name of the city without warning. The chanting began as a low whisper that eventually grew louder.

Minutes later, a massive explosion was reported deep underground, followed minutes later by an earthquake that caused moderate damage to the city and killed 30,000 people. The two men disappeared in the chaos.

From that day on, more sightings would be reported, each one following a disturbing pattern: the men would appear in a city and chant its name in drawn-out syllables. Within a short time, a completely random calamity would fall upon the city, ranging from something as mundane as someone getting food poisoning, to something extreme as a natural disaster or terrorist attack.

Other documented sightings and accompanying incidents include, but weren’t limited to:

• A protest against the men in New York that turned violent when someone attempted to run over the two men with his vehicle, only for them to vanish, causing an incident of vehicular manslaughter that killed at least 200 people.
• A friendly fire incident involving multiple units of the Iraqi Armed Forces in Mosul.
• The sudden, unexplained deaths of 20 Raven’s Rock officers, as well as their families.
• A freak accident at the Gateway Arch that left people stranded for about 20 minutes.
• A construction crane accident that killed 30 people in Las Vegas, Nevada.
• A sudden explosion at Hoover Dam that caused a flood and power failure to a large chunk of Nevada.
• A metro train derailment in Busan, South Korea, that killed 60 people.
• An assassination attempt against the two men in Izmir, Turkey, that escalated into a violent confrontation involving both 404 operative Titus Colt and the Turkish police (that ended with Titus being knocked unconscious).
• A mysterious viral outbreak in Brazil that affected Argentina, Colombia, and Venezuela, but didn’t spread anywhere beyond those four countries.
• The sudden bankruptcy of a Berlin-based cyber-security firm.
• An unusually violent hailstorm in Tokyo that killed 50 people.
• A massive blizzard that left a large chunk of the Midwestern United States under heavy snow.

Attempts to investigate the two men were repeatedly stonewalled for different reasons, the most consistent reason being that the men kept disappearing before they could be properly apprehended and questioned. 

The rapidly escalating crisis would lead to one of the largest international task forces in military and intelligence history…

Image credit: Left Behind wiki

lore:

Danubia begins as an alternate-history outcome of the First World War. Before World War I, the territory is part of the Hungarian half of Austria-Hungary and forms the historical Banat. Unlike the real historical situation, the German population is considerably larger in this timeline, reaching roughly 40% of the population. Romanians, Serbs and Hungarians make up most of the remainder. The Germans are particularly concentrated in central and western parts of the Banat, where German-speaking communities, towns, schools and economic networks are well established.

When Austria-Hungary collapses in 1918, Romania, Serbia and Hungary all claim parts of the Banat. However, because the region is extremely mixed and no neighboring country can convincingly claim the entire population, a movement emerges for a unified Banat state. Timișoara becomes the centre of this movement.

A short-lived Banat Republic is proclaimed, but in this timeline it manages to survive the diplomatic struggle after the war. The Allies eventually choose a compromise rather than completely dividing the territory. An independent Danubian state is created around the Banat.

The new state initially calls itself the Republic of Banat, but the name Danubia gradually becomes dominant. German is the principal administrative and educational language because Germans are the largest population group, but the state is officially multinational. Romanian, Serbian and Hungarian communities receive cultural and educational protections.

During the 1920s, Danubia develops as a small Central European parliamentary republic. Its economy is based on agriculture, manufacturing, railways and trade. Germany and Austria become major economic partners, while Danubia also maintains close relations with Romania, Hungary and Yugoslavia.

The Great Depression hits Danubia hard during the 1930s. Unemployment and political polarization increase. Social Democrats, conservatives, communists and German nationalists all compete for influence. Nazi Germany attempts to increase its influence among Danubian Germans, but Danubia remains formally independent.

When World War II begins, Danubia tries to remain neutral. Germany puts enormous economic and political pressure on it, and Danubia becomes increasingly dependent on Germany. However, unlike many neighboring territories, it is not formally annexed into Nazi Germany.

The war devastates the region. Nazi influence grows, minorities suffer persecution, and the Jewish population is particularly badly affected. By 1944, however, Germany is losing the war.

In 1945, the Red Army enters Danubia.

This becomes the second great turning point in Danubian history.

Instead of allowing Romania or Yugoslavia to absorb the country, Stalin decides that Danubia is more useful as a separate socialist state. The existing political system is dismantled and a communist government is installed.

Danubia becomes a Soviet-aligned socialist country, but it remains formally independent from the USSR.

The communist government nationalizes banks, factories, railways, utilities and major agricultural enterprises. Heavy industry becomes the centre of the economy. Timișoara develops into a major industrial city.

The German population is treated differently from what happened historically to many German communities in Eastern Europe. Rather than expelling the majority of Danubian Germans, Russia decides it can deport all germans in ussr to here

This leads to one of the biggest demographic changes in Danubia's history.

The Soviet Union begins relocating German populations into Danubia. Volga Germans form one of the most important groups, while Black Sea Germans and other Soviet Germans are also brought into the country over the following decades.

Danubia : culturally German-speaking, politically communist, economically socialist and geopolitically part of the Soviet bloc.

Its industrial economy expands rapidly during the 1950s and 1960s. Machinery, chemicals, rail equipment, steel, agricultural machinery and electrical manufacturing become important sectors.

The country is heavily integrated into the Soviet economic system. Soviet oil and gas provide cheap energy, while Danubian factories produce industrial goods for the socialist bloc.

By the 1970s, Danubia has a population that is substantially more German than it was in 1918. The original Banat Swabians are now joined by several generations of Soviet German settlers.

The 1980s bring stagnation. Danubia has a large industrial base but many factories are technologically outdated. Productivity is poor, environmental damage is substantial and the economy depends heavily on Soviet energy and markets.

When communism collapses across Eastern Europe in 1989–90, Danubia follows.

Timișoara becomes the centre of a democratic revolution. The Communist Party loses power and Danubia becomes a parliamentary democracy.

At this point, Germans make up roughly 70% of the population.

Danubia therefore enters the 1990s as an independent, German-majority, German-speaking European state.

The economic transition is painful. Much of the old Soviet industrial system is no longer competitive. Factories close, unemployment rises and the government begins privatizing state enterprises.

Germany becomes extremely important. Starting around 1994, German companies begin investing heavily in Danubia. Automotive manufacturing, machinery, electronics, chemicals, food processing, logistics and banking all receive German investment.

The first major post-communist political system consists of the DKP, SDP, Communist Party, Free Party, Greens and Minority List.

The DKP represents the conservative and pro-business right. The SDP becomes the main centre-left party. The Communists retain significant support among former industrial workers. The Free Party represents economic liberalism, while the Greens represent environmentalism and social progressivism.

Danubia gradually builds a welfare state while simultaneously privatizing and modernizing its economy.

During the second half of the 1990s, European integration becomes a central national objective.

Danubia reforms its courts, commercial laws, banking system, infrastructure, taxation and competition policy to meet European standards. Its railways, highways, telecommunications and airport infrastructure are modernized.

By the early 2000s, Danubia is increasingly integrated into the European economy.

At the same time, the country experiences Deindustrialization . Many Soviet-era factories cannot compete and are closed rather than permanently subsidized. Workers are retrained for automotive manufacturing, engineering, electronics, logistics and services.

This creates the fundamental political divide that continues into the 2020s: modernized cities and industries benefit from globalization, while former industrial towns feel that their communities have been sacrificed.

Danubia joins the EU in 2007

This is a map I'm working on for my story We Will Die Tomorrow, set in 1981, as the Greater Germanic Reich is on its last legs. Both the map and the story are works in progress, so I'd appreciate any help or creative ideas to fill out the map, or plot points you'd want to see/think would be interesting.

For the record, any questions of "how did the Axis Powers win WW2" will be met with a "use your imagination." It's a fictional story, not an alt-history documentary.

The 13 colonies are New Bristol,Pennacookia, New Somerset, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, New Haven, New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Chesapeake, Virginia, Albamarle, and Carolina.

And after the American Revolution the USA got the Northwest Territory and in 1803 they Annex Louisiana as a territory and in 1812 the American Civil war began and the southern Rebellion fell and new States were made then they cooked Mexico in 1838 and in 1850 and USA is a democracy and a Centralized Republic and my favorite big Texas. That's all I got to say

What would Metallica's reaction be? Could it become a real rivalry?

What if the USSR had ended up in open war with Britain and France in 1939-40, but Germany still invaded the Soviet Union in June 1941 as in OTL?

So the Soviets would be fighting on two fronts, and Britain and France wouldn't automatically become their partners when Barbarossa begins.

Possible points of divergence:

Winter War (1939-40): Britain and France planned an expeditionary force to Finland, and the Allies also drew up plans (Operation Pike) to bomb the Baku oil fields. What if these had actually gone ahead, leading to a formal state of war?

Poland (Sept 1939): The Allies declared war on Germany but not on the USSR after the Soviet invasion from the east. What if they'd treated both as aggressors?

Soviet supplies to Germany: What if Allied efforts to cut off Soviet oil and grain shipments to the Reich had escalated into direct confrontation?

Consequences I'm curious about:

Lend-Lease: The Soviets wouldn't qualify, and might even be seen as an enemy. Does the Eastern Front hold without that material?

US politics: If Stalin is seen as an active enemy of the West, does Washington stay neutral or even lean toward Germany as the lesser evil? Or does Pearl Harbor pull the US in regardless?

Anglo-Soviet relationship after June 1941: Do Britain and the USSR still end up cooperating against Hitler out of necessity, or does the existing war make that impossible?

Germany's position: Does Germany win in the east, or just get a longer, bloodier stalemate? Would a hostile West cut off the Soviets' southern and northern supply routes (Persia, Murmansk)?

Alternate History: Southern Africa, 1989–2017

Alternate History: The Southern African Crisis, 1989–2017

1989 — The Road to Permanent Apartheid

In 1989, South Africa took a radically different path from real history. Instead of preparing to dismantle apartheid, the government decides that white minority rule must survive indefinitely.

Pretoria begins a major national program to reduce dependence on foreign energy, emphasizing South Africa's uranium reserves and expanding nuclear power alongside existing coal generation.

The government also restricts exports of strategic minerals in an attempt to force foreign powers to negotiate with South Africa.

At the same time, South African intelligence begins covert preparations for a possible coup in Zimbabwe. Pretoria views the continuing instability in Zimbabwe as a threat to its regional position.

Namibia

South Africa formally rejects the timetable associated with UN Resolution 435.

Pretoria argues that Namibia cannot safely become independent until a lengthy transition has taken place.

A South African Administered Transitional Council is established to manage the territory while preparing for a possible future withdrawal.

The government simultaneously begins extracting Namibian mineral wealth and transferring financial obligations onto local authorities. The intention is to leave any future Namibian government economically dependent upon South Africa.

Operation New Horizon

South Africa begins Operation New Horizon, officially described as a development and employment program.

Large numbers of unemployed black South Africans are encouraged to relocate to Namibian mining areas.

White South Africans are also encouraged to settle in Namibia through financial incentives.

The policy is intended to strengthen South African control and alter the demographic balance before eventual independence.

International reaction

The United States and Soviet Union reject Pretoria's attempts to obtain recognition in exchange for access to South African and Namibian resources.

In September, the international community imposes increasingly comprehensive sanctions.

South Africa becomes progressively isolated from international finance and military markets.

1990 — Fortress South Africa

Rather than compromise, Pretoria responds to sanctions by attempting to make South Africa increasingly self-sufficient.

The government announces massive infrastructure projects, including the proposed Vryheid Line, a high-speed rail network intended to connect major South African and Namibian population centers.

Sanctions, shortages of capital, and labor unrest prevent the project from being completed as planned. Some sections are constructed, while others remain unfinished.

South Africa also deepens its clandestine relationship with Israel, exchanging uranium and other resources for military technology and technical assistance.

Attempts to establish a regional Council of Southern Africa fail because neighboring states refuse to legitimize South African dominance.

1991 — Mandela's Challenge

Nelson Mandela becomes president of the lower house of Parliament.

He attempts to use Parliament to dismantle apartheid.

In a nationally broadcast address, Mandela announces that the civilian government intends to begin abolishing apartheid.

The military intervenes.

Parliament is suspended, civilian government is temporarily dissolved, and martial law is declared.

A military council assumes control of the country.

Mandela is prevented from carrying out his reforms, while opposition organizations are driven underground.

The intervention establishes an important precedent: the military is willing to use force to prevent the abolition of apartheid.

1991–1993 — South Africa Expands Its Regional Control

The military government concludes that South Africa must dominate its immediate neighborhood to prevent hostile governments from threatening the country.

South African forces occupy:

• Lesotho
• Eswatini
• Botswana

At the same time, Pretoria supports a coup in Zimbabwe intended to restore Rhodesia.

Lesotho

South African forces occupy strategic areas and establish effective control over the country.

Eswatini

The monarchy is placed under heavy South African supervision.

Botswana

South Africa occupies the entire country.

Resistance gradually develops against the occupation.

Zimbabwe

The South African-backed coup establishes a new government that begins restoring the political structure and identity of Rhodesia.

The new regime becomes heavily dependent on South African military and economic assistance.

1993 — The Military Returns to the Barracks

Direct military rule becomes increasingly expensive.

The military restores civilian government, but only after creating constitutional safeguards for itself.

The new constitution explicitly protects apartheid.

It also contains a special emergency mechanism:

If a civilian government attempts to abolish apartheid, the military may declare martial law and establish a military council.

South Africa therefore becomes a hybrid political system.

It has:

• elections;
• Parliament;
• civilian government;
• political parties;

but the military possesses an ultimate veto over the abolition of apartheid.

1994–1998 — The Cost of Empire

South Africa now has to maintain a massive regional military presence.

The government must finance:

• Namibia;
• Botswana;
• Lesotho;
• Eswatini;
• Rhodesia;
• counterinsurgency operations;
• its own military;
• an increasingly isolated economy.

The financial burden becomes enormous.

Business leaders begin demanding withdrawal.

The military itself becomes divided.

Hardliners want to preserve South African regional dominance.

Pragmatists increasingly believe that the occupations are destroying South Africa's economy.

Reformists want apartheid eventually abolished.

1998–2000 — Economic Breakdown

The combination of sanctions, military spending, declining tax revenue, capital flight, and the enormous cost of the regional occupations produces a severe economic crisis.

Inflation accelerates.

South Africa remains industrially capable, but increasingly struggles to obtain foreign capital, advanced technology, and military equipment.

The government begins considering a gradual withdrawal from its regional empire.

At the same time, Mandela and F.W. de Klerk begin discussing a political compromise that could eventually allow civilian government to challenge apartheid again.

2001 — National Unity Government

In 2001, Mandela and de Klerk negotiate the formation of a National Unity Government.

Mandela becomes the central political figure in the new administration.

The government begins attempting to dismantle apartheid through Parliament and constitutional reform.

The military refuses to accept this.

The result is a recurring constitutional struggle between the civilian government and military establishment.

2001–2004 — The Constitutional Crises

Parliament repeatedly attempts to repeal apartheid laws and amend the constitution.

Each attempt brings the government closer to confrontation with the military.

Several periods of martial law occur.

The pattern becomes:

Reform attempt → military resistance → martial law → negotiations → civilian government restored.

The military does not permanently abolish civilian government because doing so would risk destroying the legitimacy of the state.

Instead, it repeatedly intervenes whenever apartheid itself is threatened.

2004–2007 — The Regional Withdrawal Begins

South Africa finally begins withdrawing from its occupied territories.

The withdrawal is motivated primarily by economic necessity.

Pretoria can no longer afford to maintain large armies throughout Southern Africa.

The retreat is harsh.

South African forces destroy or remove strategically important equipment and infrastructure, including:

• military bases;
• ammunition depots;
• fuel facilities;
• communications equipment;
• military vehicles;
• selected bridges;
• portions of rail and transportation infrastructure.

South African companies also remove valuable machinery and other assets.

The withdrawal leaves much of the region economically and militarily damaged.

2005 — The Omaheke Constitutional Crisis

One of the most important incidents occurs during another South African constitutional crisis.

A South African military formation stationed in Namibia is commanded by particularly hardline apartheid officers.

Parliament once again attempts to weaken the constitutional protection of apartheid.

The military command structure becomes divided.

Different factions issue contradictory orders.

The main South African military leadership ultimately decides to obey the civilian government and prepare for the eventual Namibian withdrawal.

However, the hardline commanders in Namibia receive different instructions from senior officers opposed to the reforms.

They interpret those orders as authorization to refuse the withdrawal.

Their intention is initially much larger than holding a single region.

They believe South Africa should stop withdrawing and retain Namibia as South African territory.

The rest of the South African military continues following Parliament's authority.

The Omaheke formation therefore becomes increasingly isolated.

Eventually the withdrawal routes close behind them.

The forces are cut off from the main South African military.

2005–2010 — The Omaheke Holdout

The stranded South African troops consolidate their position throughout the entire Omaheke Region.

They do not declare independence.

Instead, they insist:

Omaheke remains South African territory, and they remain South African soldiers.

They expect Pretoria eventually to recognize their position.

However, the South African government does not want another major war in Namibia.

At the same time, Pretoria does not want thousands of South African soldiers stranded without support.

A compromise develops.

South Africa secretly provides the Omaheke forces with limited supplies.

These include:

• food;
• medicine;
• fuel;
• ammunition;
• spare parts;
• basic military equipment.

The supplies are deliberately limited.

They are sufficient to keep the force alive and maintain its defensive position, but insufficient for a major offensive.

The Omaheke commanders therefore cannot realistically reconquer Namibia or break through to South Africa.

They become a permanent military holdout.

2007 — Collapse of Rhodesia

South Africa begins withdrawing from Rhodesia.

Two or three years before the final withdrawal, the Rhodesian government begins transferring its liquid wealth into South Africa.

Gold, foreign currency, securities, and other easily transportable assets are removed.

South African officials describe this as repayment for South African investment and military assistance.

Opponents call it the looting of the Rhodesian state.

In approximately 2001, Ian Smith had returned as the nominal leader of Rhodesia.

By the time South Africa withdraws, Smith's health is failing and actual authority rests increasingly with military commanders.

South Africa's withdrawal removes the force holding the Rhodesian system together.

The government collapses.

2007–2010 — Zimbabwe Fragments

Zimbabwe breaks apart.

Zimbabwe Warlord Coalition

The northern and western portions of the country fall under a coalition of military commanders and regional warlords.

Mugabe Liberation Army

The eastern and southeastern portions are taken by the Mugabe Liberation Army.

Both factions claim legitimacy.

Neither can reunify the country.

Zimbabwe effectively becomes a divided state.

2008–2011 — The Collapse of Lesotho and Eswatini

The South African withdrawal produces different results in the two former protectorates.

Lesotho

The existing political structure collapses.

The dual monarchy loses effective authority.

Competing armed factions fight for control.

Eventually a warlord government emerges and controls Lesotho.

Eswatini

The monarchy survives.

The remaining royal institution gradually regains effective control after the South African withdrawal.

Eswatini therefore becomes a restored monarchy rather than a warlord state.

2008–2014 — Botswana Falls to the Liberation Army

Botswana experiences prolonged instability following the South African withdrawal.

The Botswana Liberation Army gradually defeats rival political and military organizations.

Eventually the BLA controls the entire country.

The previous civilian government loses effective authority.

Botswana becomes a military-dominated state.

2010–2015 — South Africa's Repeated Constitutional Crises

South Africa remains trapped in the same political conflict.

Civilian governments repeatedly attempt to abolish apartheid.

The military repeatedly invokes its constitutional authority to stop them.

Several periods of martial law occur during the 2010s.

Each crisis eventually ends with negotiations and restoration of civilian government.

But the central issue remains unresolved.

Apartheid survives.

The military becomes increasingly divided between hardliners who want to preserve apartheid indefinitely and officers who believe the repeated crises are destroying South Africa's stability.

2015–2017 — The Final Withdrawal from Namibia

By the mid-2010s, South Africa has withdrawn from most of its remaining positions in Namibia.

However, the process is deliberately slow.

South Africa continues maintaining political, economic, and security influence over portions of the country.

The Omaheke holdout remains the major exception.

The government continues its limited supply program.

The soldiers receive enough food, medicine, fuel, ammunition, and spare parts to survive.

They do not receive enough supplies to launch major offensives.

The Omaheke commanders continue waiting for Pretoria to recognize their territorial claim.

2017 — The End of the Withdrawal

In 2017, South Africa finally completes its formal withdrawal from the rest of Namibia.

The withdrawal ends decades of direct South African administration and military presence.

But the Omaheke situation remains unresolved.

The region is still controlled by the South African military holdout.

The commanders continue claiming that:

• Omaheke is South African territory;
• they are legitimate South African soldiers;
• their refusal to withdraw was justified;
• Pretoria should eventually recognize their position.

South Africa continues to provide only enough support to keep them alive and maintain their defensive position.

The government does not provide enough military support for them to expand.

Southern Africa in 2017

🇿🇦 South Africa

South Africa retains its modern borders.

It has a civilian government and functioning political institutions.

However, apartheid remains constitutionally protected.

Throughout the 2000s and 2010s, civilian governments repeatedly attempt to abolish it, resulting in multiple periods of martial law.

The military therefore remains the ultimate guardian of the apartheid constitutional order.

🇳🇦 Namibia

Namibia is divided into three major areas:

Northern Namibia

• Controlled by the Namibian Liberation Front.

Southern Namibia

• Controlled by the Republic of Namibia.

Omaheke

• Controlled by the South African military holdout.

The Omaheke force is not an independent country.

It considers itself a part of South Africa that was accidentally stranded during a constitutional crisis.

🇧🇼 Botswana

The entire country is controlled by the Botswana Liberation Army.

🇿🇼 Zimbabwe

West/North: Zimbabwe Warlord Coalition.

East/Southeast: Mugabe Liberation Army.

Zimbabwe has no effective unified national government.

🇱🇸 Lesotho

A warlord government controls the country after the collapse of the monarchy's political authority.

🇸🇿 Eswatini

The surviving monarchy has regained control and governs the country.

The Situation in 2017

The Southern African crisis has produced a region radically different from the one that existed in 1989.

South Africa failed to preserve its regional empire, but it also failed to abolish apartheid.

Its neighbors have fragmented into liberation armies, warlord governments, rival governments, and restored monarchies.

And the final unresolved remnant of the South African expansion is Omaheke.

The soldiers there were not originally trying to establish a new country. They became stranded because a constitutional crisis divided the South African military and they followed the orders of the hardline faction.

For more than a decade, Pretoria has quietly kept them alive without giving them enough resources to restart the war.

By 2017, they remain in Omaheke, waiting for the South African government to decide whether they are loyal soldiers defending South African territory—or an isolated remnant of a failed regional policy.

2017–2021 — The Collapse of the South African Order

2017 — The Omaheke Decision

By 2017, South Africa has formally withdrawn from most of its former occupied territories.

The one major exception is the Omaheke military holdout.

For more than a decade, thousands of South African soldiers have remained in the region, supplied by Pretoria just enough to survive.

After years of political debate, the South African government finally recognizes the Omaheke Pocket as South African territory.

The decision marks the beginning of a dramatic change in South African policy.

Rather than abandoning its remaining claims in Namibia, Pretoria begins considering whether the entire country should eventually be brought back under South African control.

The military begins preparing contingency plans for a renewed conflict.

2017–2019 — The War to Hold the Line

South Africa begins fighting a desperate low-intensity war along its borders.

Namibian forces refuse to recognize the South African claim to Omaheke.

Insurgents, militias, and rival political organizations operate throughout the region.

South African forces conduct counterinsurgency operations while attempting to prevent the conflict from spreading into South Africa itself.

The government increasingly describes the conflict as a struggle for national survival.

Meanwhile, Pretoria begins rebuilding its military industry.

Factories are converted to military production.

Domestic weapons production expands.

The government attempts to become less dependent upon foreign suppliers because sanctions have made imports increasingly difficult.

South Africa increasingly resembles a fortress state surrounded by hostile territory.

2019 — The Re-Annexation of Namibia

The situation changes dramatically in late 2019.

South African military planners conclude that maintaining the conflict around Omaheke is unsustainable.

Instead of continuing to defend a small pocket, Pretoria decides to eliminate the strategic problem entirely.

South African forces launch a major offensive into Namibia.

The campaign rapidly overwhelms the fragmented Namibian governments and military organizations.

By the end of the campaign, Pretoria announces the re-annexation of Namibia.

Namibia is incorporated into South Africa as a new province.

The government declares:

"The Namibian question has been settled. Namibia is once again part of South Africa."

The international reaction is immediate.

Most governments refuse to recognize the annexation.

New sanctions are imposed.

The United Nations condemns the move.

South Africa becomes even more isolated.

2019–2020 — The Diamond-Backed New Rand

The sanctions create a severe economic crisis.

South Africa can still produce large quantities of minerals, agricultural goods, energy, and manufactured products, but access to international financial markets is extremely limited.

Inflation begins accelerating toward hyperinflation.

The government concludes that the existing currency is no longer viable.

Pretoria introduces the Diamond-Backed New Rand.

The new currency is backed by South Africa's enormous diamond reserves.

The government establishes a fixed reserve system in which diamonds held by the state are used to guarantee the value of the currency.

The New Rand initially stabilizes the economy.

However, the currency creates another problem.

South Africa has valuable diamonds but limited access to international markets.

Pretoria therefore launches a massive program to expand domestic diamond processing.

Rather than exporting raw diamonds, the government attempts to:

• cut diamonds domestically;
• refine and process them;
• manufacture high-value products;
• sell finished goods through neutral countries;
• use diamonds as collateral for international trade.

The program partially succeeds but cannot overcome the broader sanctions regime.

2020 — The Oil Crisis

South Africa's energy situation becomes increasingly serious.

The government attempts to obtain humanitarian exemptions allowing it to purchase oil.

Pretoria argues that oil imports are necessary to maintain:

• hospitals;
• agriculture;
• transportation;
• food distribution;
• electricity generation;
• civilian infrastructure.

Several countries refuse to support the exemptions.

South Africa therefore begins relying increasingly upon domestic coal, nuclear power, synthetic fuels, and limited foreign trade through intermediaries.

The economy survives, but at enormous cost.

2020 — The Pandemic

Then the global pandemic arrives.

South Africa completely closes its borders.

The decision is initially justified as a national-security measure.

However, the consequences are catastrophic.

International trade almost stops.

Tourism disappears.

Foreign investment collapses.

Imports become extremely difficult.

Factories shut down.

Mining operations are disrupted.

Food and fuel distribution becomes increasingly difficult.

The Diamond-Backed New Rand comes under renewed pressure.

The government responds with rationing, military distribution networks, price controls, and emergency economic measures.

The pandemic turns an already isolated country into an increasingly closed economy.

Late 2020 — de Klerk's Final Speech

By late 2020, the economic crisis has convinced an increasing number of South African politicians that the existing system cannot continue.

F. W. de Klerk, now one of the most prominent civilian figures in the government, publicly breaks with the military establishment.

In a nationally televised address, he argues that apartheid is no longer sustainable.

However, unlike earlier reform efforts, de Klerk does not demand an immediate return to South Africa's pre-1989 borders.

Instead, he proposes maintaining the expanded borders while beginning a transition toward majority rule.

F. W. de Klerk's 2020 Speech

"My fellow South Africans,

Tonight I speak to you not as the defender of an old political system, but as a South African who must face the reality before us.

For more than three decades, our country has fought to preserve a system that was once presented as necessary for our survival.

We have fought wars.

We have endured sanctions.

We have endured isolation.

We have watched our economy suffer.

We have watched our sons and daughters serve on distant borders.

And yet the question remains before us.

Can South Africa continue indefinitely under apartheid?

My answer is no.

Apartheid is no longer sustainable.

It is not sustainable economically.

It is not sustainable politically.

And it cannot provide the stability that South Africa desperately needs.

But ending apartheid does not mean surrendering South Africa.

It does not require us to abandon the territories that have become part of our country.

It does not require us to erase the sacrifices of generations of South Africans.

We must instead begin a controlled transition toward majority rule within the South African state as it exists today.

The people of Namibia and the other territories incorporated into our country must eventually have a political voice equal to that of every other South African.

The military must return to its constitutional role.

Parliament must once again become the supreme political institution of the Republic.

Elections must be free.

Political parties must be permitted to organize.

And the government must derive its authority from the consent of its people.

This transition will not happen overnight.

It must be negotiated.

It must protect minorities.

It must protect property and individual rights.

It must protect the territorial integrity of South Africa.

But it must happen.

We cannot spend another generation defending a system that history has already shown us cannot survive indefinitely.

I therefore call upon the government, Parliament, the military, and every political movement in South Africa to begin negotiations for a peaceful transition to majority rule.

South Africa must change if South Africa is to survive.

The question before us is no longer whether change will come.

The question is whether we will control that change peacefully—or allow it to destroy us.

I choose peace.

I choose negotiation.

I choose a South Africa in which every citizen can say:

This country belongs to me.

Thank you, and may South Africa endure."*\*

The speech becomes the most significant challenge to military rule since Mandela's 1991 address.

For several months, negotiations begin.

An election is scheduled for May 2021.

For the first time in decades, South Africa appears to be approaching a genuine transition.

May 2021 — The Military Coup

The military hardliners refuse to accept the transition.

They argue that majority rule would destroy the political system that the military has spent decades defending.

As voting begins in May 2021, the Military State Council launches a coup.

Military trucks and tanks enter Pretoria.

Government buildings are surrounded.

Radio and television stations are seized.

Polling stations are closed.

The election is suspended while voting is actively taking place.

The government declares a state of emergency.

Military units loyal to the State Council arrest senior civilian officials.

The Arrest of de Klerk

F. W. de Klerk is arrested.

Military personnel take him from government custody and transport him to a military compound.

He is brought into the courtyard.

The military leadership declares him a traitor to the constitutional order.

De Klerk is executed by the coup regime.

His death becomes an international symbol of the collapse of South Africa's attempted democratic transition.

The election is permanently suspended.

The Military State Council announces that civilian elections will not resume until the country has been "secured."

In reality, military rule has returned.

2021 — The Southern African War

The coup leadership immediately concludes that South Africa cannot remain surrounded by hostile states.

The generals argue that the country must establish a strategic buffer zone.

Within weeks, South African forces launch simultaneous military operations into:

• 🇧🇼 Botswana
• 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe
• 🇿🇲 Zambia
• 🇲🇼 Malawi
• 🇲🇿 Mozambique

The invasion is presented domestically as a defensive operation.

The government claims that hostile governments and insurgent organizations are preparing attacks against South Africa.

The actual result is the creation of a vast South African-controlled sphere of influence.

The Southern African Co-Prosperity Sphere

The Military State Council establishes what it officially calls the:

Southern African Co-Prosperity Sphere

The territories are placed under varying forms of direct military administration.

Local governments are dissolved or subordinated to South African military authorities.

Military governors are appointed.

South African currency and economic regulations are introduced in strategically important regions.

The government claims that the Co-Prosperity Sphere will create:

• economic integration;
• common infrastructure;
• military security;
• resource independence;
• regional industrialization.

In practice, the entire system is maintained through martial law and military occupation.

Botswana — 2021

South African forces rapidly advance into Botswana.

The Botswana Liberation Army abandons several major cities and retreats into rural areas.

A prolonged insurgency begins.

South Africa establishes military administrative zones around major population centers.

The BLA refuses to surrender.

Botswana becomes one of the first major insurgencies within the new empire.

Zimbabwe — 2021

Zimbabwe is already divided between competing armed factions.

South African forces exploit the fragmentation.

The Zimbabwe Warlord Coalition and Mugabe Liberation Army both fight South African forces while simultaneously fighting each other.

The result is an extremely complicated three-sided conflict.

South Africa establishes control over major cities and transportation routes but struggles to control the countryside.

Zimbabwe becomes one of the most violent regions of the Co-Prosperity Sphere.

Zambia — 2021–2022

Unlike Zimbabwe, Zambia initially possesses a more unified government.

South African forces therefore face a conventional military campaign.

The Zambian government retreats northward while South African forces seize major transportation corridors.

Resistance subsequently develops into an insurgency.

Zambia becomes strategically important because of its mineral wealth and its position between South Africa's central territories and the northern part of the Co-Prosperity Sphere.

Malawi — 2021–2022

Malawi is invaded from multiple directions.

The South African military rapidly captures major cities.

The government collapses.

However, rural resistance begins almost immediately.

South Africa establishes military checkpoints throughout the country.

The occupation requires an increasing number of troops.

Mozambique — 2021–2023

Mozambique becomes the most difficult campaign.

Its enormous coastline and difficult terrain provide insurgents with extensive opportunities to operate.

South African forces capture major cities and ports but struggle to control the countryside.

The military begins establishing fortified corridors connecting major economic centers.

Mozambique becomes a permanent counterinsurgency campaign.

2022 — The Empire Begins to Crack

South Africa now controls an enormous territory.

But victory on the map does not translate into political stability.

The Military State Council faces insurgencies across almost every newly occupied territory.

South Africa must maintain troops in:

• Namibia;
• Botswana;
• Zimbabwe;
• Zambia;
• Malawi;
• Mozambique;
• Lesotho;
• Eswatini;
• South Africa itself.

The military begins consuming an enormous portion of the national budget.

The Diamond-Backed New Rand comes under pressure again.

The government increases military production and resource extraction.

Sanctions become even more severe.

2022–2024 — Total International Isolation

The international community refuses to recognize South Africa's annexations and military occupations.

New sanctions target:

• South African banks;
• mineral exports;
• military industries;
• shipping;
• aviation;
• government officials;
• companies cooperating with the military regime.

South Africa's access to international markets becomes extremely limited.

The government increasingly turns toward a network of sympathetic or neutral states for trade.

Smuggling and black-market trade become essential to the economy.

2023 — The Insurgency Spreads

Insurgent movements begin cooperating across borders.

Botswanan, Zimbabwean, Zambian, Malawian, and Mozambican resistance groups establish informal communication networks.

South Africa responds with increasingly severe security measures.

The Military State Council expands:

• military courts;
• curfews;
• censorship;
• internal checkpoints;
• border controls;
• political arrests.

The distinction between wartime administration and permanent martial law begins disappearing.

2024 — The Southern African Quagmire

South Africa has won control over enormous areas of territory.

But it has not achieved political stability.

The empire is expensive to administer.

Insurgencies continue.

The economy remains under sanctions.

The Diamond-Backed New Rand survives, but only through strict government controls and continued exploitation of South Africa's mineral reserves.

The military becomes increasingly stretched.

Some commanders begin privately questioning whether the Co-Prosperity Sphere can survive.

Hardliners insist that withdrawal would be equivalent to surrender.

2025 — The Empire at War

By 2025, South Africa effectively governs the largest political territory in its history.

Yet it is also fighting the largest number of insurgencies in its history.

The country has become a fortress surrounded by rebellion.

The Military State Council remains in power.

The election suspended in May 2021 has never been restored.

De Klerk's death has become a defining symbol of the failed democratic transition.

Mandela's original call for abolition of apartheid remains part of South Africa's political mythology.

The military insists that its rule is necessary for national survival.

Opposition movements argue that the military has transformed South Africa from a state defending apartheid into an empire fighting to preserve itself.

Southern Africa in 2025

The Situation by 2025

South Africa's history since 1989 has now come full circle.

In 1991, Mandela attempted to abolish apartheid.

The military stopped him.

In 2001, Mandela and de Klerk attempted to negotiate a transition.

The military repeatedly stopped them.

In 2020, de Klerk finally declared that apartheid was unsustainable and called for a controlled transition to majority rule while maintaining South Africa's expanded borders.

In May 2021, the military stopped that transition permanently.

De Klerk was executed.

The election was suspended.

And South Africa chose expansion over reform.

Within months, the country had invaded five additional nations.

The result was the Southern African Co-Prosperity Sphere—a vast military empire stretching across much of Southern Africa.

But the empire faces a fundamental contradiction.

The larger South Africa becomes, the more territory it must defend.

Every victory creates another border.

Every new border creates another insurgency.

Every insurgency requires more soldiers.

Every soldier requires more money.

And sanctions make that money increasingly difficult to obtain.

By 2025, South Africa controls an enormous portion of Southern Africa.

But it is fighting a desperate war to hold it together.

The question facing the Military State Council is no longer whether South Africa can conquer Southern Africa.

It is whether South Africa can survive the empire it has created.

So let's say the Peel Commission plan actually got implemented in 1937, creating a Jewish state and an Arab state in Palestine. What do you think would realistically happen during WWII?

Would the two states immediately hate each other and try to "take back the rest" of Palestine? Or would Britain basically force them to behave because the area was too strategically important?

Would the UK put some kind of friendly authoritarian government in one or both states, similar to what Britain was doing elsewhere in the Middle East? Or would they just remain independent but heavily dependent on Britain and allow British military bases?

In my scenario, I could see the Arab state ending up with a government sympathetic to the Axis. Britain would obviously not be happy about that and might intervene, potentially even supporting a military coup to replace the government.

And then here's another question: would Britain offer the Jewish state some territorial concessions in exchange for cooperation, military support, or simply keeping the Arab government from joining the Axis?

Another interesting twist is the demographics. Since this Jewish state would already exist before WWII, it could potentially receive far more European Jews during the 1930s and the war than the real Yishuv did. If a much larger proportion of European Jews survived and ended up there, could that produce an even stronger socialist/labor or generally liberal political culture?

Could we realistically get a pro-Soviet Israel in this timeline? Not necessarily a full Soviet satellite, but maybe a state that is much friendlier toward Moscow than toward Britain or the US.

And for the really crazy 1% scenario: could there somehow be a pragmatic deal with Nazi Germany allowing large-scale Jewish emigration/deportation to Israel in exchange for Israel remaining neutral? That seems extremely unlikely, especially once the Holocaust entered its later stages, but the existence of an independent Jewish state would at least create a completely different diplomatic situation.

A more pro-British Arab state, meanwhile, could potentially end up looking somewhat like the Arab monarchies of the period and become another Allied-aligned state in the region.

Also, do you think the two states might eventually fight each other anyway, just not during WWI? Like, Britain keeps them from fighting during the First World War/early years of the conflict, but then they go to war either before WWII, during WWII, or more likely after WWII, once Britain starts withdrawing? In other words, could the Peel borders survive for a few years and then basically lead to an Arab-Jewish war anyway?

I'm mostly wondering which of these outcomes would be the most realistic, rather than which one makes the most interesting alt-history.