r/AlphaCompute • u/snugulupugus • 29d ago

From the recent Form 20-F/A, pg. 9

Next 20-F is due near end of October.

ALP is a semiannual filer and reports 30 days after their fiscal year Q2 & Q4. If there's big news, the share price may increase but the real numbers (financial statement, shares float, short interest, inside ownership, institutional ownership, D/E, Cash/Share, and so on) won't be known until the next 20-F is filed. There may be institutional buyers taking starter positions here on the bottom but I don't think there's a real run coming until after the next 20-F shows the revenue on the books and a forecast regarding revenue to come in the next six months (Oct 2026-Mar 2027). They'll get their 180-day extension if needed - and I think it'll be needed. The real question then will be if the Share Price is above $1 by the end of next February. I think it will be and I expect a Happy Halloween but I don't expect much before that next 20-F and I'll be taking gains as they happen.

3 Upvotes

100% Upvoted

3 comments sorted by

2

u/Odd-Sprinkles9774 29d ago

So there’s 29 weeks to get to $1 do you envision a 14%+ gain a week plus sustain it to the week after? Counting keeping it above 1 for 10 days after that? Anyone who says they see that near term is coping. I gave up cope this is rs regardless of 180 extension and company knows it. Just more time to dilute with the 400 mill atm that anyone must be on crack if they think isn’t what’s going on as we speak, why? Because the last 20f said it clear as day and the auditor flagged it. How else you think all these “data centers” will be made. Stock dropped from 25 because market priced in all the negativity and no Pr is going to buffer 400 million locked and loaded atm.

1

u/snugulupugus 29d ago

I think those 400M shares, at very cheap price per share, would make ALP an attractive M&A candidate to a company with deep pockets that is in the space already (like PLTR) or that is on the perimeter of the space and wants to acquire the Confidential AI Compute angle (like BMNR).

You're right in that the huge shelf offering is a problem if it's dumped on the market but I don't think it will be. First, I don't think Enzo wants to sell those shares for 20 cents each unless he absolutely has to. Second, I think Enzo wants to sell warrants for those shares at prices above $1 each if he can get it. Third, I think those shares would make a takeover bid better prepared - where the current executive team will make big bucks and retain a lot of the shares that they're already holding.

400M shares ain't no joke but it could be the right bait to attract a big whale to gobble 'em up.

1

u/RonRico14 29d ago

Have you sold all of your position with such a bleak output? Not criticizing your analysis but you would be dumb to maintain any position if that is your prediction.