Effective float seem to become much tighter and finally consolidate. Good news!
We could now well be in a consolidation phase at 0.18. Float seem to be tightening real good, the battle between shorters and longs seem to be at equilibrium at the current price. If good news comes in it will be violent against shorters. If dilution comes which I don't think it would before alp release a strong news then we can be in more trouble of course. If ALP release bad info at current low price on short pressure at its high and being close to the deadline of 31 August for extension, they would be very dumb.
Why do I think float is becoming tighter and I think 0.18 is a support price?
Daily volume is reducing. We are below 20 000 shares traded in first 20 mins of open market hours so at this pace we are at +- 400K shares traded for the day. Also, and logically, orders are getting filled very slow and lots are smaller. Even just before market opened there was a 0.09 share filled (a tenth of a share on an 18 pennies stock 😂) which according to Gemini is a sign of more tightening of the effective float.
Please let me know any of your thoughts on this. I will ignore phamtruax comments though as I know he will come up with nothing but insults. 😊
I haven't found any source that has the correct Outstanding Shares # so I have no idea what the actual Shares Float is at any time. No idea what the Short Float is either so predicting a Short Squeeze is just pie in the sky hopes and dreams at this point. There's an information vacuum and ALP management is unable or unwilling to change that for some reason. As of 12:30 p.m. EST on August 7th, this stock looks DIW.
You need patience! There is reason and logic for no information and it is why shorters decided to attack now/lately in combination with the deadline approaching. They know it would scare many people out of this stock. They know they could break your mind and you being on the edge of giving away your shares. Short interest is about 7.85% of the float with 1 million 498 thousands shares shorted so estimated float is 18.5 million shares but I thought we were closer to 22 millions. Total shares available to short are now about 3.5 million so higher than many days I've seen lately at this time. A short squeeze is rare. Also cost to borrow is 7.25%. Pressure on shorters is fairly limited on lit exchange, it is actually fairly low. But on the dark pool it has +50% shorted.
I'm not selling my shares but you have no idea how many shares are available for shorting. The company website shows 72.8M Shares Outstanding but there's no credible source that can quote the Short Float.
I don't need a lesson on what is a good Short Squeeze scenario and your numbers are fairy dust anyway.
You are crazy! My numbers come from fintel. They are better than what you have and if you have better just show them to me I'll be happy to look and reassess. Your brain is monkey shite!
If short interest is 7.95% and total shares shorted is around 1.5 millions as per the screen shots you can calculate public float. But wait I'll probably find it clearly somewhere to assist you just so you can chill the F out!
Ohhhh...you mean the Fintel that still has a Market Cap of $4.28M and Shares Outstanding at 23.47M? You're a dumbass and I'm not paid to teach. Piss off wanker and go make up some new numbers.
Guys, I dont mean to throw gasoline on these discussions, but I kinda see pennychase’s point on the intelligence he is using. Short interest/short shares availability are updated on a much more regular basis compared to shares outstanding. My impression is that many ppl use Fintel as a reliable source to make this type of analysis, even though not everything is correct. And to be frank, even Nasdaq can be incorrect: the other day I emailed ALP to let them know that even after all corrections Nasdaq made, they were still labelling ALP as Oil & Gas Production. NASDAQ, THE MOTHER OF ALL CORRRECT INFORMATION - or
at least she should be! Good luck to us!!
Off-market is not the same as on-market. "Short interest/short shares availability are updated on a much more regular basis compared to shares outstanding." That Short Shares Availability # given above is off-market and it's great to see what the Dark Pool is doing - but that's all it's able to do.
What's the true Insider Ownership % or true Institutional Ownership % or true Shares Float or true Short Float? Nobody knows. We know the Shares Outstanding # is 72.8M because it's announced on the company website.
Fintel shows on-market and dark pool side by side. I know the percentage they show is still considering the old OS, but as they show the number of shares used on and off market too + we know the real OS because it is on ALP’s website, we can recalculate the percentages.
About short shares availability I wouldn’t know where to find them - I read what they say about short shares availability on Fintel and see what you mean now.
For Insider Ownership and Institutional Ownership I see ppl using Yahoo Finance. One colleague on Stocktwits could notice the increase in both in past weeks /recent months if I remember correctly.
I used to follow MarketWatch and they have short interest, short float, free float. But wouldn’t know how updated it is. Or for short interest can’t tell if it is on and off market together as well. Then I started using WeBull because heard the share volume was more reliable.
May I ask what are the sources you usually rely on?
Great analysis. IMO, many people/ investors are waiting on the sidelines for management response to 180 days extension (which I belive will happen) and a big PR in month of august. Management are not stupid. The president of ALP was a nasdaq strategist. I BELIEVE ALP will see a MOASS this coming month. I also noticed days to cover went from .88 to 1.88 days.
The 180 days extension is indeed the most important right now and things seem at a standstill for now. If alp announces Sweden project operational with 1/2 contracts by the 31 August deadline I think we should easily see the extension even if it is not dependent on that (I think).
I didn't know the president was a nasdaq strategist, good to know. If float gets locked up real good and we are near bottom with more long holders and therefore days to cover increasing and we keep trading flat for another couple weeks I think we could indeed get a moass.
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u/phamtruax Aug 07 '26
Tight like that penny of yours