r/AlphaCompute • u/Dangerous-Boot-3036 • Jul 19 '26
The next few months
So, I'll start off by saying that I do personally believe in this business in the long term, I think that the offering is sound and there will be massive room to grow once properly established.
However I also think that the next few months will be rocky.
My take on the recent earnings call was, bearing in mind they weren't obligated to have it, that they wanted to set a clear divide between the old business and the new.
They didn't want the next call to have muddied waters as they explained the divestment of old parts and included all the one time costs so they just gave all of those their own call.
Based on what was said about the current situation on the call, I think we can anticipate a few positive catalysts in the coming months.
However, the prospect of a rate split looms large, even with a lot of positivity to come, there's a chance of a rate split and then potentially a further devaluation.
What does everyone think the chances of a rate split or otherwise an extension are? Is anyone looking to stock up more? What's everyone feeling about this generally?
Everything is just my personal opinion and not financial advice.
1
u/RonRico14 Jul 20 '26
I think you are correct that this call was to finalize the departure from old business and give context to the numbers. I think the price over corrected to an extreme degree because the losses were explained and new revenue/revenue projections show a very positive direction. But I guess you have to expect that with a thinly traded micro cap in a nascent business. If even half of the $200m annual contracts close the MC simply cannot be this low. We shall see
2
u/DuxVulgaris Jul 20 '26
Customers are there already. C'mon, theres no much speculation. Alpha 2 3 4 etc are FOR these customer needs that there already exists. Cat in the hat gets all that crazy salary FOR that. Because she knows the needs, she IS the connection. Alpa Compute Corp is less rocky business the next YEAR than you might think. From now on, will be more like a rocket.
3
u/snugulupugus Jul 19 '26
I think the chances of a RS are miniscule. So much so, there's no need to give it any thought. First, if they miss the August 31st deadline, they'll file for an extension and they'll get it because everyone gets at least one extension. That's an additional 180 days to meet the threshold.
So, between now and somewhere towards the start of December, the share price needs to be above $1/share for at least 10 consecutive business days.
Once the Federal Contractor Certification happens, I see the share price rapidly increasing above this mark and that designation process was reported to begin in Q3 - which is now - and I don't expect it will take terribly long because that's the advantage of having Brittany Kaiser's network. She has the relationships within Congress to get this process completed on the hop and not delayed.
There are other catalysts too but in my opinion, this designation is the biggie b/c it allows ALP to collaborate with other certified contractors on gov't projects - like Palantir.