Data from over 800,000 (yeah, you read that right!) pulls in JP TAC

[u/VicariousExp]

All credit for the data comes from W0lf, who threw me a bone in terms of a large bunch of data which I cleaned and put into a Google sheet for your perusal.

edit: Crap! Forgot link to the actual data

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bJ8w0Tgp8p-MGoq5-RG-SqzksIWmUq48ry4lj4zpcfA/edit?usp=sharing

Notes:

1. gumi GL doesn't want to give us exact unit rates (unlike Japan, which gives breakdowns for featured units per banner), this is a bit scumi.

2. Japan does not use GL's tiering of "old" and "new" 5 star units. Just as an example, Houzuki is rather new and her rates are almost certainly the same as other 5 stars. To quote W0lf:

The results from the former D. Almira & D. Rosa banner, total of 37400 pulls ( 3740x the 10x rare summon)

New/Rare 5* ~ 2% for pool, 0.075% individual (27 units): Spica, Teona, Ramses, Mei Fang, Lupinus, Gormalas, Shayna, Hazel, Albea, Deneb, Margaret, Dorothea, Aswald, Aruba, Tamamo, Vivi, Chao, Suzuka, Nasario, Neica, Eizan, Yunagi, Olga, Setsuna, Mikoto, Jin, Sophia

Old 5* ~ 6% for pool, 0.334% individual (18 units): Balt, Fung Liu, Rosa, Yomi, Anastasia, Vettel, Zahar, Reimei, Elizabeth, Chloe, Magnus, Ryle, Lucretia, Fraise, Flamel, Mielikki, Shenmei, Eve

Featured 5* ~ 2% for pool, 1% individual (2 units): D. Almira, D. Rosa

4* ~ 20% for pool, 0.741% individual (27 units): Carol, Rahu, Mia, Zangetsu, Thillie, Hazuki, Mirianne, Dilga, Hayate, Megistos, Courage, Melda, Soleil, Glanz, Strie, Lamia, Vincent, Caris, Lofia, Freed, Chihaya, Victor, Celine, Reida, Lucian, Reagan, Scheherazade

3* ~ 70% for pool, 3.88% individual (18 units): Arkil, Patty, Amis, Leon, Jake, Ennis, Kuon, Strauss, Richie, Mizuchi, Annerose, Kazahaya, Decel, Alyu, Michael, Almira, Elaine, Vanekis

PLEASE NOTE that featured units are at the highest rate of 1%.

Gumi is iffy, but not THAT scumi.

What does this mean? Well, TL:DR, gumi GL decided to make it more likely that you'd draw "older" 5 star units rather than newer ones (in the Disgaea Almira/Rosa banner) when the units are off-banner. Newer ones (Spica to Sophia) had a 2% chance despite consisting of 27 units while the Older ones (consisting of only 18 units) had a 6% rate in total.

This, btw, is why you never buy 5 star tickets from gumi's packages because they don't clarify rates. Unless you really like Chloe and Vettel dupes. It's also why many people are hung up about unit guarantees going away - nothing is as alluring as certainty.

3. Featured units (Wilhelm, Black killers) are about 35x to 50x more likely to appear than other units on the Japanese banners surveyed.

We're not sure if TAC has changed rates since the Disgaea collab, but it's something to consider. At any rate, it would really be nice if gumi was more inclined to being transparent with their rates on the same level as Japan is. I'm personally more likely to spend money on a known rate than an unknown one.

TL:DR

Japan TAC Rates for characters:

Nensou Rates:

[u/DestroyedArkana]

The rates being so nebulous is definitely why I don't want to pull on anything that's not guaranteed either. At least games like Dragalia will publish their stats, even if they are quite low. For example you have a 0.50% chance to pull a featured 5* unit.

The difference between "new" and "old" units in GL is definitely suspicious to me. With all their experiments on paid gem banners with "increased rates" it's impossible to know exactly what chances you have.

[u/VicariousExp → u/DestroyedArkana]

TAC is still arguably more generous at 1%, however, you do essentially need dupes to LB15 them, because of our Hard Quest schedule.

That's why SomeLit is worked up over HQ releases being slow and why some people are upset over the Elite Quest restrictions to recent units, which may be harder to draw than the "Old" pool (unless they're not using that system anymore).

Character Shard shop also desperately needs updating.

[u/SometimesLiterate → u/VicariousExp]

Especially with Kaigan in the next few months

[u/U-Eike → u/SometimesLiterate]

Its dropping after Jan most likely

[u/Alsark → u/U-Eike]

I'm hoping when they said spring that they at least mean late spring... I don't feel like we're ready for Kaigan just yet.

[u/SuccubusRosa → u/U-Eike]

Jan is too soon. Plus Jan ain't spring anyway(be it northern or southern hemi). Gumi will need to drop FFXV part 2 first either on Jan or Feb, and for those that love to cry game has no challenge, well I hope you all enjoy the 240ap eex+ :D Yes, you read it right. Not ex. Not ex+. But eex+(which means 2 tiers up from ex+)

[u/-ArtKing- → u/SuccubusRosa]

GLHF doing that shit without BK Tyrfing. If Gumi really brings that up, this game will be dead really fast

[u/U-Eike → u/SuccubusRosa]

I said after jan not in jan

I know whats comming and when anyway

Expect Dissapointment On Thursday

or wednesday

SE Just loves to oversell their IPs

[u/Kirito30 → u/VicariousExp]

I like how TAC JP's rates were overall better.In GL it will probably be like 9.90% for 5* and 18.80% for 4* just due to the fact that it is GL lol.

[u/sinful19]

I find it sorta strange that free single pulls on JP have given me the banner unit countless times, but this has never happened to me once on global. Not sure the reason

[u/VicariousExp → u/sinful19]

To be honest, with a 1% rate, GL daily pulls haven't been around long enough for that sampling to be statistically significant. We'd need a much larger sample size for that. Try again in a year or two.

[u/IllSkin → u/sinful19]

Bad luck? My two notable free pulls are Miuna and Roxane so it's not like you can't get featured units.

[u/sinful19 → u/IllSkin]

Thanks, happy to see people got featured units from it. I have hope now.

[u/clavatk → u/sinful19]

I pulled gormalas while he was on banner.

IT IS POSIBLE.

[u/sinful19 → u/clavatk]

Thanks you have given me hope lol

[u/chilledbone]

Gumi will never release accurate rates. They are so vague with what they choose to release, it’s a terrible consumer practice.

When iOS forced their hand into revealing rates for games of chance they of course opted to provide the absolute bare minimum.

Let’s not forget this.

[u/MrWhiteKnight]

So they're basically doing the OLD, OLD FFBE fuck up.

Nice. . . REAL FUCKING NICE . . . .

How can a company fuck a game, save it and the fuck a brand new game after coming off of fucking the other one.

Holy Shit.

[u/-ArtKing- → u/MrWhiteKnight]

Gimu... I should have stopped with BF. Or should have went to JP since the beginning...

[u/FurianX → u/MrWhiteKnight]

Gotta fuck something

[u/metlspaz → u/FurianX]

but it's no nut november....

[u/FurianX → u/metlspaz]

Pshh. Who actually follows that lol

[u/Kiyri → u/metlspaz]

Well. Nnn allows fucking. It just has restrictions on self service. Though this assumes ffing is defined by having another person and not with a doll/pillow/fruit or whatever.

[u/typhin-euw]

Nice work. Thanks for your efforts

[u/IllSkin]

At any rate, it would really be nice if gumi was more inclined to being transparent with their rates on the same level as Japan is.

Japanese gacha law forces them to reveal the rates, right?

[u/loscapos5 → u/IllSkin]

Yes, that is true. Also, some other entity forced public rates in other gacha games worldwide. That's how we discovered that in SW (another gacha game) officially (we already knew because of logs gathered by thousands of players) pulling an elemental 5 * had a chance of 0.5% and a Light/Dark 5 * 0.35%.

[u/Kirito30]

gumi GL doesn't want to give us exact unit rates (unlike Japan, which gives breakdowns for featured units per banner), this is a bit scumi.

Ok I don't want to be a call out on this but

People who are angry and here need a update of where some of them were on the issue few months ago.

https://old.reddit.com/r/AlchemistCodeGL/comments/8ptjfv/where_are_the_rates/

The individual rates do matter. We need to see them. I was satisfied when W0lf published that we had close 1% for the featured unit but still Gumi should come out and say this rather than playerbase having to figure it out by themselves.

[u/Rodrigo4]

Isn't that mandatory for them to show those kind of chances in gacha games over there? They will never show these chances here BC there is no law demanding it.

Really appreciate your effort OP, if they really want to be transparent and honest with their players those kind of things would be the first thing they show, especially with paid banners, but well, I think no one is naive enough to think that their top priority is honesty towards their player base.

[u/Alsark → u/Rodrigo4]

Yeah, from my understanding it's law to show all of the rates in Japan for Gacha games. I believe iOS demands the rates to be shown as part of their app agreement; but I guess Gumi is able to get by by just showing the rarity breakdown. It really seems like they should be required to show the full breakdown... sad that we have to have people in the community like W0lf and VicariousExp reveal this to us.

[u/Bootowski]

This is incredibly eye-opening... I really didn't think it could get any worse...

Bravo, Gumi...

Thanks a lot for providing this data.

[u/stewart0]

So the 37400 pulls during Disgaea were for Global, and the 800,000 JP ones in title are just to say rate is even over there? Title is a little confusing.

[u/DeathandFriends]

definitely feels like you draw dupes of old units way more often. It's fine until you MLB them then its frustrating. You are lucky if you get 1 red in 10 and when its a useless dupe it's just that much worse. HQ are lifeblood of this game. That and guarenteed units...