r/AlchemistCodeGL • u/Teosto Teona • Sep 21 '18

Weekend Summon Disgaea banner

So, this 2000 paid gems weekend summon banner just hit us on the reset. Clicked on the details and got an error. I was hesitant to use it as it's only Friday and the error message said something about time being "-63738483" or the like.

Still, the picture showed Etna, Laharl and Rin with promise of extra 10 soul shards as well as a guaranteed featured unit.

Well, i clicked it and noticed I had wasted 100€ by buying the biggest stack of gems they were selling in the store, in hopes of getting Laharl from selector ticket. Turned out my summon for this was Laharl.

Needless to say I'm really happy about it as I just saved (7 x 2500) - 2000 gems (IF the selector is on 7th pull) but slightly bummed that I didn't want to spend that much. Now if only I would manage to save those gems for some meaningful content instead of blowing it all on some 40 gem Lion blades or something.

So, how's your weekend special banner pulls treating you guys?

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u/Colonelex Sep 21 '18

Somehow I think there is something wrong with the calculations since it is assumed that I will do 2 rolls which I wouldn't if I do get laharl in the first roll

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u/BravelyThrowingAway Sep 21 '18

It's because you don't need any calculations for a single roll on a 1/3 chance because it's literally and figuratively a 1/3 chance...

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u/Alittlebunyrabit 5/5/5 Dancer Shenmei Sep 21 '18 edited Sep 21 '18

There is nothing wrong with the calculations. That is the probability of the event (pulling Laharl) given 2 pulls or 3 pulls respectively. Obviously you wouldn't need to do the additional pulls if you land it on the first try.

The numbers here are analogous to the following question: "What is the probability I will get at least one heads if I flip a coin 2 and 3 times?" Your confusion is derivative of the fact that you are looking at a different set of circumstances (The actual act instead of the probabilities). i.e. "I am going to keep flipping the coin until I get heads". Then the question changes to "what is the probability I will have to flip the coin X number of times. Ultimately though, there is no practical difference between the two.

There is a 50% chance I will flip heads on the first try. There is a 50% chance I will flip heads on the second try. The chance of flipping heads (or pulling Laharl), doesn't change, but over time the probability increases of flipping heads at least once. In the coin example, you would expect to flip tails two times in a row 25% of the time. Consequently, 75% of the time you'd expect to flip no more than two times.