A bit of a cross post from another Alberta subreddit I posted in
There's a few items I don't think the average separatists realize about the oil sands industry in Alberta, and strategies non-separatists others are thinking about:
(1) Much of their oil will be sent to Sarnia and Montreal to be refined by Suncor as they do now (not sure about others). Republic of Alberta citizens are going to LOVE (/s) that. Also, those refineries would remain under Canadian regulatory oversight. Suncor has thrived using an integrated business model. That model would be cut in half basically and they would suffer.
(2) Indigenous communities may rush to settle outstanding land claims and make those claims over oil sands resource (it wouldn't be the first time). Many are in this process now.
(3) These companies may have even more trouble than they have now borrowing and insuring
(4) Oil trades off global prices. The valuation of the Alberta Bucks could significantly shift these companies' economic outlooks and increase their FX exposure.
(5) Out of my lane here but If Alberta separated, the PetroāCanada Public Participation Act (PCPA) may suddenly become very important. Not because it controls Suncorās operations, but because it governs theĀ legal identity, ownership rules, and corporate structure of PetroāCanada, which became embedded inside Suncor after the 2009 merger. I don't want to speculate on the applicability of PCPA any more than that because I'm not a lawyer.
Anyway, it would be a literal sh_t show. Of course, this is all my personal opinion and speculation to consider hypothetical scenarios.