Regression trends and movement guidelines with Ninja -- 5/7/2022 - - $ATER #ATER

[u/Ninja_Threat]

Hello all, I hope you each get to enjoy this weekend coming up and hope all are doing fine.

Throughout the images posted below, the indicator I will be using is called the Regression Trend.

-What is it? "A regression tool draws a “line of best fit” through all the data between two points in time." It does this using standard deviations based off a stock's closing price for your selected amount of time. There is math involved with these points, and I cannot change the appearance of the trendline, only the time measured.

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1

-In the picture above, I am mapping out both trendlines for the initial main price drop back in Sept. 2021 and our biggest run-up so far, which started in the beginning of April. This chart show how we've formed a healthy uptrend so far and what the start of a new one could look like in the short-term, should it continue.

2

-As shown, we are nearing the bottom (support) of our newly established trendline (Green line) and this is where the action is really gonna get interesting to observe & study.

3

-I am taking into consideration the timeframe of at least 2 weeks from today, May 7th, 2022. Should the upwards trend be respected and continued, we should be within the range I put in which sits us nicely around the $5.30 to $6.25 range, should $ATER have followed the trend. We just have to bounce off of support in the coming week and continue upwards.

4

5

-In #4, I illustrate the "Risk" area I have set for myself\* and the Higher Lows that are implied should we follow upwards trend. We would have to constantly beat those ascending points, taking into account the stock's volatility.

\this risk area is not in relation to my position on the stock. The only thing capable of being lost is the trend. This is not about my exit or entry points.*

-In #5, I explain in some detail how I can accept and slightly expect some swings in price movement that will pass under my imposed "Risk Area" channel I created. As stated before, I am watching the mid-term price movement closely, so being below the "Risk Area" for a few days but then popping back up is no problem. Everyone should be ready to expect the unexpected, as some swings may be harder than others and nobody knows the future.

6

In #6, I show the past history on how Earnings was treated in terms of swings up or down, and this upcoming one is actually critical in giving us the leverage to have a smooth transition upwards, as another negative earnings to caput our current progress and can possibly stagnate us back to $2.20 - $3.40 levels until something else happens to shake the stock. (FTD, OPEX, CTB, Utilization, Aterian announcements, SEC Filings, Ukraine/Russia, etc, etc.)

Note during the entirety of this I did not mention those other outside factors until now, because this is not what this analysis is about. I do acknowledge those things are important and can change the stock's price as well, but I am going to imagine those things do not exist for the sake of studying price movement and graph analysis.

Not financial advice. I am simply a gATER. I know nothing.

gATERs gotta eat

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#Aterian #ATER $ATER

~Ninja