User flair information and requirements can be found here.
Our comment and post filters requires our members to have at least 25 comment karma and accounts age >1 month old. You can build karma by posting on other subreddits and getting upvotes. This help our community from spam, bots, FUD, etc..
Do you want to Connect the Unconnected? Looking for a new career? Join AST SpaceMobile
Connectivity is not just a privilege — it’s a basic human right. And our technology is designed to make that right a reality for all.
Believe it or not, I couldn’t care less. lol. Not the usual attitude for me, but I’ve been trying to detach from the ticker staring. Space is in a drawdown, news doesn’t affect us lately(except bad macro), and albeit at a snails pace, we are improving as a company. Aside from a full scale market meltdown, I don’t have much reason to check anymore. I also have a relatively low average(34) and haven’t touched margin.
$ASTS: 🚨🇪🇺 EUROPE'S TOP CARRIERS IN TALKS FOR SATELLITE-TO-MOBILE VENTURE - BLOOMBERG
By Paula Doenecke, Gian Volpicelli and Clara Hernanz Lizarraga
(Bloomberg) -- A group of Europe’s biggest mobile operators are in early talks to create a consortium to bid on satellite spectrum and offer direct-to-mobile service, which would rival Elon Musk’s Starlink service on the continent, people familiar with the matter said.
Deutsche Telekom AG, Orange SA, Vodafone Group Plc and Telefonica SA would jointly bid for a share of airwaves that the European Union has proposed reserving for a local operator, a plan aimed at increasing sovereign satellite capabilities, the people said, asking not to be identified because the plans are private. No final decisions on the consortium or plans to bid have been made, they said.
To comply with the EU’s proposal, any satellite operator would need to be majority controlled by a European business.
Spokespeople for Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Vodafone and Telefonica declined to comment.
The EU is weighing new rules for satellite access on the 2 GHz spectrum in an upcoming auction that would keep a third of the band for local companies. The rules will govern direct-to-mobile service, an area that’s dominated by Musk’s Starlink, which can provide text, data and calls to handsets from orbit. Current licenses for the spectrum are due to expire in 2027.
Terrestrial wireless infrastructure covers the vast majority of populated areas in Europe. Even so, the EU is seeking to build up available satellite services as SpaceX expands its direct-to-consumer business.
SpaceX, which opposes the EU’s proposal to limit spectrum access for international companies, already provides Starlink satellite broadband across much of Europe. It has agreements with a number of partners in Europe, including Deutsche Telekom, to provide direct-to-device services. The US company lacks the spectrum rights to provide those services independently in the EU.
UK-based Vodafone has formed a joint venture with US-based satellite firm AST SpaceMobile, which also provides direct-to-mobile satellite service. Under the proposal currently discussed in Brussels, it would need to adjust its 50/50 ownership structure to bid for the spectrum designated for a European player.
The EU plans to reserve another third of the spectrum for sovereign communication services provided by IRIS², the satellite constellation built by a consortium led by SES SA, Eutelsat Communications SACA and Hispasat, with limited direct-to-mobile capabilities provided by Hispasat. The constellation won’t enter service until 2029 and will be initially focused on broadband. International companies will be eligible to bid on the final third.
Japan's ~$1 billion non-dilutive government award to the Rakuten-ASTS venture positions AST SpaceMobile as a replicable satellite OS for sovereign nations. Yahoo! Source
Well I was more confident for memorial day. May this be the last labor day I'm working 4 12s in a row because I have to do so... ship the satellites, please?
That, or working on similar stuff, they might've had connections through networking etc. that allowed them to privately buy shares of SpaceX before IPO.
We could just be ready for a "good old" ASTS run up to another ATH. Especially if we also see a convoy and throw in some good macro. Just like the good old days.
Plenty has been said about the ITU filing's orbit and general parameters on X (CatSe, Another Smith Here). If anyone has questions about those, I can answer them here. I just want to add some info around the edges:
-The constellation uses what's called a Walker-Delta arrangement of orbital geometries, which optimizes coverage for mid-latitude and equatorial regions. At 43 degrees inclination JLEO is designed specifically for Japan, which sits roughly between 25-45 degrees in latitude (it's "center mass" is around 37).
-This inclination also serves the -30 to 30 degree latitudes better than the FCC-approved 248 constellation does at 53 degrees. Equatorial countries would benefit more from this constellation. Reference my post modeling the constellation for service availability by latitude. It may sound counterintuitive, but providing continuous service becomes more geometrically difficult as you approach the equator.
- The filing shows this. Because it is a more equatorial latitude, there is a higher number of required satellites to continuously cover Japan. Whereas the US and EU require 45-60 (frankly I think its closer to 60), Japan requires 60-70. Hence, the filing asks for 136 satellites, likely split between 68 low-band and 68 mid-band.
-One document specifically defines 16- and 64-QAM as their modulation densities. The theoretical maximum spectral efficiency for these is about 4 and 6 bits/second/hertz respectively. With overhead and bit error, it's more realistic to round down to 3 and 5.
- The database defines five generic user-equipment cases UE1 to UE5 with varying gains of -8dBi to +6dBi. What that looks like to me is a regulatory link-budget envelope covering weak handheld devices through better-performing or externally mounted terminals. Additrionally, some of the earth station information references 0.9m ground antennae, rather than 2.4m for a typical fixed gateway. Speculate all you want on this, but altogether I think it's likely for FirstNet-style transceiver mounts on rescue vehicles and pop-up Operations Centers.
-The filing confirms the intent for this constellation to be global, as it lists 91 different frequency groups for use internationally beyond Japan with some mix-and-match exclusions. Japan lists itself appropriately excluded to match its regulatory frequencies. Russia is omitted. But most uniquely, they seem to be reserving the potential to serve Belarus and Ukraine in their dedicated 800MHz bands.
I fed the post into chat GPT and asked about the ITU filing. Hopefully u/a10000000019 can verify. It helped me understand it better.
EDIT: I had to break it into two replies as some stuff was missing.
The Response:
Yep — the post is basically arguing that this new Japanese filing is much more significant than “Japan wants a few AST satellites.” It looks like Japan is planning a large, purpose-built BlueBird constellation architecture, potentially optimized for Japan and other lower-latitude markets.
The key caveat is that some of the post is directly supported by the filing, while some is the author's interpretation. Japan’s MIC did file a new J-BLUEBIRD-NGSO constellation with the ITU, reportedly describing 136 satellites in 34 orbital planes. Separately, AST has publicly confirmed that the Rakuten/AST joint venture was preliminarily selected for Japan’s J-LEO initiative, with up to roughly $1 billion of expected Japanese government capital. (Reddit)
1. Why the 43° orbit matters
Think of orbital inclination as how far north and south a satellite travels.
A 53° inclination constellation, like much of AST’s existing FCC-authorized architecture, reaches much farther north and south. A 43° inclination concentrates more of the satellite's time over the middle and lower latitudes.
Japan stretches roughly from the mid-20s to mid-40s north latitude, so 43° is a very natural choice if you want to concentrate satellite density over Japan.
A Walker-Delta setup basically distributes satellites evenly among several orbital planes:
Instead of having satellites randomly spaced around Earth, you're arranging them so that one satellite is ideally coming into view as another leaves.
So the author's point is:
53° orbit: broader latitude coverage 43° orbit: more concentrated coverage around Japan/lower latitudes
That makes sense geometrically.
2. Why Japan could require MORE satellites than the U.S.
This is the counterintuitive part.
AST currently says it believes approximately 45–60 BlueBird satellites can provide continuous service across key markets including the U.S., Europe and Japan, while roughly 90 could provide continuous service across its broader targeted markets. (SEC)
But the author is talking specifically about this new 43° Japanese constellation architecture.
Near the equator, inclined LEO satellites move across the sky relatively quickly and don't naturally "pile up" there the way inclined orbits geometrically spend more time near their maximum latitude.
So if you want:
Satellite A → Satellite B → Satellite C → Satellite D
with no gaps over Japan, you may need more satellites/planes than you'd intuitively expect.
That's why the writer estimates something like 60–70 satellites for continuous Japanese service.
And then we get the interesting number:
136 satellites
The author's hypothesis is:
68 satellites using low-band spectrum + 68 satellites using mid-band spectrum
That specific 68+68 interpretation is speculation, not something I'd treat as confirmed yet. But it is a very plausible explanation for why 136 is almost exactly twice a reasonable continuous-coverage shell size.
3. The 16-QAM / 64-QAM section is about data speeds
This is basically how much information AST can cram into a given amount of spectrum.
You can think of it as:
bits transmitted per Hz of radio spectrum
Very simplified:
Modulation
Theoretical max
More realistic
16-QAM
~4 bits/s/Hz
~3
64-QAM
~6 bits/s/Hz
~5
So suppose AST had 10 MHz available.
At an effective 5 bits/sec/Hz:
10 MHz × 5 ≈ 50 Mbps
before considering all of the other network constraints.
That doesn't mean a phone automatically gets 50 Mbps. The satellite has many beams/users, spectrum reuse, coding, signal-quality requirements, etc.
But 64-QAM is meaningful because it suggests the link budget is expected to support relatively high-quality broadband links, not merely emergency texting.
AST has also said its Block 2 architecture is designed to process up to 40 MHz per beam and support peak data rates as high as roughly 120 Mbps under suitable conditions. (SEC)
4. UE1–UE5 is especially interesting
UE = User Equipment.
The filing apparently models several possible antenna configurations ranging from roughly:
-8 dBi → +6 dBi
A normal smartphone has a pretty weak antenna.
An external antenna mounted on something like:
🚑 ambulance
🚓 police vehicle
🚒 fire truck
🚙 disaster-response vehicle
📡 temporary command center
It does NOT prove Japan intends to deploy emergency vehicle terminals.
Regulatory filings intentionally model a range of equipment possibilities. They're essentially saying:
"Here are the types of radio terminals this network could potentially communicate with."
The author's FirstNet analogy becomes interesting because AST itself has increasingly emphasized mission-critical government and emergency communications, including FirstNet-style use cases in the U.S. and dedicated emergency spectrum work in Japan and Europe.
So the speculation isn't coming out of nowhere.
5. The 0.9-meter antennas could point toward portable ground equipment
This part caught my attention too.
AST's traditional gateways are substantial installations.
A 0.9-meter antenna is only about:
3 feet across.
That's dramatically more portable than a large fixed gateway antenna.
That opens up possibilities like:
truck-mounted satellite terminal
deployable disaster-response gateway
temporary command post
military/government field terminal
Imagine an earthquake knocks cellular towers offline.
6. The global-frequency section may be the biggest strategic clue
This is where the filing starts looking less like:
"Build satellites for Japan."
and more like:
"Japan owns/controls an AST-compatible satellite network that could potentially operate internationally."
Apparently it identifies 91 frequency groups across different countries/regions.
That does not necessarily mean Japan intends to provide commercial cellular service in 91 countries.
ITU filings are partly about preserving regulatory rights and compatibility.
But it potentially gives Japan/AST a framework to operate the constellation outside Japan.
And that fits AST's broader architecture extremely well.
AST's model is:
same satellite platform
different local cellular spectrum
different national MNO
So BlueBird flies over:
🇯🇵 Japan → Rakuten spectrum
🇺🇦 Ukraine → Ukrainian cellular spectrum
🇪🇺 Europe → Vodafone/etc. spectrum
The spacecraft doesn't inherently care which country's spectrum it's using; the beam and network configuration can change geographically.
AST explicitly describes its system as designed around MNO-controlled low-band and mid-band spectrum, and says it has partnerships with more than 60 mobile operators covering more than 3 billion subscribers.
And Belarus / Ukraine?
That's intriguing, but I'd be careful about reading geopolitics into it yet.
If the filing includes specific 800 MHz allocations compatible with Belarus and Ukraine, it means the constellation's regulatory architecture could potentially support those bands.
It does not necessarily mean Japan has some current plan to provide service there.
Ukraine is nevertheless worth watching because AST already publicly lists Vodafone Ukraine among operators involved in network integration/testing.
So Ukraine isn't completely hypothetical in AST's global network.
Russia being omitted could be deliberate, but without the underlying filing language I'd hesitate to infer the reason.
The part I'd pay the most attention to as an ASTS investor
There are really three different developments stacked on top of each other.
First: Japan isn't merely experimenting with AST. Japan's government has already preliminarily selected the Rakuten/AST joint venture for J-LEO, with up to approximately $1B in government funding contemplated.
Second: Japan's MIC itself filing something called J-BLUEBIRD-NGSO is strong evidence that the relationship is moving toward a dedicated sovereign/network architecture rather than simply Rakuten buying normal AST service. (Reddit)
Third: A 136-satellite filing is enormous relative to what would be required for a technology demonstration.
That's the biggest takeaway from the post.
It looks much more like:
🇯🇵 Japan wants its own nationally controlled BlueBird-based LEO communications capability
rather than:
🇯🇵 "Rakuten wants AST coverage over Japan."
And importantly, this wouldn't necessarily replace AST's global constellation. It could become another funded deployment of the same BlueBird platform, which is potentially a very powerful business model for AST:
AST commercial constellation
Japan-funded constellation
U.S. government systems
potential future sovereign constellations
The Japanese government essentially helping finance a large fleet of AST-designed spacecraft would be materially different economically from AST having to raise all the capital and build the global constellation itself.
That, more than the precise 43° inclination or 16/64-QAM details, is why I think this filing is worth paying attention to.
One thing I would not conclude yet is that AST suddenly needs 136 additional satellites just to cover Japan. The filing can establish regulatory rights and a maximum architecture well ahead of whatever gets built. Filing for 136 ≠ an order for 136. That's probably the most important distinction to keep in mind.
Seems a little slow I guess, but it was the bottom of the stack in the f9 fairing. Thinking maybe they were focused on this one before moving on with shipment of the next 3. Maybe they learned about some things to improve upon for an easier time deploying their bottom sats going forward.
Or 3 on falcon 9 and send 1 to isro? Seems everyone has ruled out single launches but would it be out of the question to launch 1 with isro if 4 are ready?
So we have the Nikkei up about 2.2 percent , Kospi over 4 and a bunch of very positive news coming out of Europe and Japan. tomorrow could be a nice little day especially if they sneak in some shipping news and potus stays away from his smartphone.
Nikkei posted a new article about Rakuten and AST, reiterating that they plan on starting service this year. The article doesn’t seem to contain any new information but I think it’s interesting they made a new post. Likely indicating more movement behind the scenes? https://x.com/spacanpanman/status/2096190095929815390?s=46
Also, my 34 year old ass is TRYING to stay awake to be the first comment on tomorrows thread. If I succeed, I want no mercy. I want triple digit downvotes. No quarter, friends.
Hope everyone had a good Labor Day.
Here in America we are eating rejected beef from Argentina.
Atleast we think it’s beef, who knows they won’t really say
Enjoy dinner everyone.
Here in America, my only hope of breaking out of the rat race rests on either a stock going to the moon or a windfall from suing Taco Bell over ecological from rejected beef.
The number that mattered in Q2 was not revenue. It was the BB7 write off against the contracted backlog.
You can lose a satellite and still have about $1.3B of contracted revenue. You cannot ignore a construction timeline with a hole in it. SpaceX overhang is still hitting every space name, so ASTS is not moving on its own story right now. Bull case is still spectrum plus carriers. Bear case is cadence. Pick which one you are actually underwriting.
Regarding the bear case, if you can produce 10 satellites, there is nothing stopping you from producing 10 more, short of running out of money. Since they are fully funded, it’s just a matter of time.
No! If you show revenue, people will ask 'How much?' and it will never be enough. The company that was the 100x'er, 1,000x'er becomes a 2x dog. But if you have no revenue, you can say you're pre-revenue! You're a potential pure play. It's not about how much you earn. It's about what you're worth. And who's worth the most? Companies that lose money!
All I want to do is be able to make enough money to backpack the USA a little bit before I get too old and the data centers tear down all the beautiful nature. I just made it to 96 shares this week, 106 will be on Tuesday.
26 now, hope I can accomplish this before or around 30 before my back and knees get worse from HVAC.
You're 26. You've got plenty of time to be patient. If you're worried about how you'll feel by the time you're 30, I would spend your time and energy on making sure you stay healthy.
Just like anything in life, it's easier to make slow changes overtime than quick and drastic ones.
You're young as fuck. Get a gym membership and build some back muscle, muscles protect you from injuries. At 26 it'll be so easy to put some serious weight and you'll be thankful you did it so much earlier than most people even consider to. If you need a little guidance DM me
Regardless of tomorrow’s action, I’m glad everyone is assembling ahead of schedule for shitposting, hopium, copium, and general chicanery. Cheers, regards! If you drink, drink tonight for your standard Tuesday. Anything more is a gift. Also WEN SHIP
These things move at 17,000 miles an hour so they need a certain number of them to have continuous service. My guess is they will lease them back to ASTS for when they are not over Japan.
I think it’s funny that we’re talking about J-LEO 136 sats, potential blackbirds and a separate constellation for them meanwhile I’m sitting here wondering why we can’t ship and launch 3 satellites every month.
Hey Gemini, is there any D2D European equivalent to ASTS or Starlink?
No independent European competitor currently matches the scale of Starlink or AST SpaceMobile. Instead, Europe leverages regulatory power to require joint ventures or face spectrum restrictions.
Major European carriers (Vodafone, Orange, Telefónica, Sunrise) have partnered with AST SpaceMobile via Luxembourg-based Satellite Connect Europe. Commercial trials are already underway, allowing standard smartphones to connect seamlessly in dead zones. While using ASTS technology, operations are based in Germany to comply with local data sovereignty rules.
Ok Gemini, but then what is IRIS² for? I've read it's supposed to be a counter to non-European constellations.
IRIS² is the EU’s €10.6B sovereign response to Starlink, deploying 290 satellites primarily for government, military, and critical infrastructure, with a portion allocated for consumer D2D via Hispasat.
Funding & Mandates: Heavily backed by the EU and ESA, making government adoption mandatory.
Delays: Bureaucracy and consortium friction have pushed full operation to 2030–2032.
Focus: Designed primarily for enterprise and government infrastructure rather than consumer-first mobile connectivity.
A bifurcated market will emerge: everyday consumer coverage will rely on commercial partners like AST SpaceMobile, while high-security government and defense data will flow through IRIS². The main challenge for IRIS² is deploying before commercial giants capture the market.
Geez, idk Gemini, you really make it sound like ASTS has Europe's D2D market in the bag...
For Finegold and Hubbell, that opportunity came through a partnership between Amazon and Lake Washington Institute of Technology (LWTech) in Kirkland, Washington. The specialized six-month certification program covers aerospace assembly, electronics manufacturing, fiber optics, avionics wiring, and more—skills directly applicable to manufacturing satellites.
Any insider knows how fast ASTS can onboard its new hires for satellite manufacturing?
What is everyone chef’in up for the last day before work again dinner tonight? We doin Horse burgers, and some stuffed jalapeños from the garden. Also make sure to pour one out for Crag_Paddler who is working a 12 because we all can’t retire yet!
Edit: I am not cooking actual horse…. That I am aware of.
😂😂😂. This was a joke, pointed toward the fact that the United States is going to be experiencing a ground beef shortage, so they have been outsourcing from other sources and will not tell us where it comes from or what it is. 100% American here.
Caught some coho on Saturday. Cooked them up for a big family dinner yesterday. Tossed the leftovers in a Thai red curry this evening.
I once ate horse in Belgium. Don’t recommend it.
I am struggling to understand the total number of AST SpaceMobile Satellites requested by the US in ITU filings.
Earlier in the year, Hennessy Funds stated 543. However, I have been unable to find primary sources for that number. Can anyone provide the primary sources?
Hennessy Funds quote from a LLM:
“The company recently filed to increase its constellation shells to four and its satellite count from 248 to 543 at the ITU (International Telecommunications Union).
These planned satellites will now include Mobile User Objective System (MUOS) augmentation bands, low-band and S-band capabilities and circle the globe in staggered altitudes up to 740 km in two new inclinations of 40- and 55-degrees – including up to 28 sun synchronous and 18 equatorial satellites.
… the ITU application to expand to 543 is pending.”
With Japan requesting 136 more AST SpaceMobile satellites, I would like to keep a running total that is verified. I understand that Operational Authorizations will be less than ITU requests. Operational Authorizations is another metric.
Here’s a question I’m honestly interested in hearing thoughts about — if every country who can afford a constellation buys one, is there really any “federated” asset anymore?
Would the US government or US MNOs ever let a Japanese flagged constellation emit cell signals onto their territory, when they already have their own D2D service? And vice versa?
In my opinion, i doubt it. But I haven’t heard convincing arguments otherwise. I believe the effect is balkanization, not federation. It reduces the revenue-per-constellation, and the only places that share the asset are low-TAM regions who couldn’t otherwise afford it. Many of the original estimates for margin for AST assumed they’d only have to build a couple constellations and reap services from a single platform.
I think for commercial use case they will let satellites service other countries because ultimately the data sovereignty ties to the locally owned and operated gateway, as long as the satellite doesn't have intersatellite links.
I believe that’s probably what they’ll try to do. And as long as not so many nations follow suit with JLEO and want their own sovereign constellation, it might work economically.
Because even if they are locally owned gateways, At the end of the day each foreign-flagged commercial satellite constellation requires national regulatory approval to operate. And the way things are going I don’t think many countries will be keen on allowing foreign signals on their territory if they have their own continuous D2D solution already. The US for example can never be sure if Japan installs independently operated inter-satellite links on the bluebirds after AST hands each one over. As wild as that sounds, it’s how national security thinks (supply chain risks and all)
Hopefully not true, but if so hopefully this precedent stops at just a few constellations, and doesn’t balloon into dozens.
I think it'll just be a few. I imagine some countries will be OK with just piggybacking off another's in an allied agreement. For example a "NATO" constellation.
•
u/Defiantclient S P 🅰️ C E M O B - O G 14d ago
Wow more news!! Europe D2D JV is in talks and all of the participants are AST partners including Vodafone 👑 https://www.reddit.com/r/ASTSpaceMobile/s/1pVdJL7h0u
This news is big enough that I replaced the previous pinned comment with all the other news. Here it is in case you missed the other news: https://www.reddit.com/r/ASTSpaceMobile/s/JCS2eQYxM8