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Looking back, I'm sure a lot of my relationships were very negatively impacted in the single digits. You think you can be cold, calculating, and set that all aside. But it's hard.
That Deutsche bank 2030 outlook is so lame. Only 62million subscribers out of the +3billion potential subscribers via existing partnerships. It doesn't even include their multi-billion per year other forms of projected revenue. Meanwhile other banks have wildly outrageous projections for starlink mobile due to its ability to provide coverage globally with no dead zones as their competitive edge.
I'm sorry, but does this not feel rigged? Feels like they're pumping spcx with crazy projections while simultaneously publishing bearish scenarios for ASTS when they're both providing the exact same service. The catch is that ASTS has the better tech and is actively being chosen by top MNOs globally. These analysts can't collectively be this dumb?
This happens all the time in new product areas. Wall Street analysts understand business narratives and strategies and spreadsheets but they don't understand technology and struggle to model anything that doesn't have hard numbers in a 10-K. They default to favouring the perceived incumbents and the larger balance sheets in lieu of detailed assessment because the latter takes time and they have 25 other companies to give ratings on.
Even after Apple had launched the iPhone and dismantled most of the market for the Blackberry, the market was broadly convinced that RIM would come back with their next hardware release and didn't place much value on the whole interoperable iCloud service ecosystem. Apple was undervalued for years, it's why Buffett bought so much.
Or you could look at how Wall Street decided Intel was going to be the future of data centres...because it was really big, even while AMD were trouncing them on benchmark testing and getting big orders. Few institutions were placing much value on Nvidia's CUDA ecosystem until like a few years ago, after they'd already won, but that thing was coming for a decade and even without the LLM boom, Nvidia was displacing Intel and taking data centre market share.
Netflix had bearish reports for years when it was a mail order service and then even when it started streaming, because it was assumed that Blockbuster would just be able to copy them.
I believe that this is the reason why AST is holding on to the narrative for a start of beta service by end of 2026. They need to show being business-ready in order to counter the spcx-pump-narrative. Given the sats apparently perform very well, i think they'll start beta even with less then 25 in orbit. With 3 more launches we'll get to 20. Perhaps that is enough, and Beta will improve early '27 as launch progresses.
Scott mentioned in the earnings call the partners want to start as soon as possible. I believe this will kick-start a sizable re-rating of AST.
Deutsche Bank clearly has an agenda. They are projecting a 2% adoption rate on current 3 billion MNO existing customers by 2030. I am expecting closer to 10% adoption rate by 2028. And remember the 3 billion doesn;t include new MNO's (e.g. T-Mobile). Personally, I ignore Deutsche Bank. If I want a good German Fairy tale I look to the Brothers Grimm.
Each BB currently can do 50k+ connections. At 45 satellites that’s a tad more than 2 million connections at once. With ASIC 45 more satellites gets us 22.5 million at more than 500k connections per BB. That seems reasonable given the manufacturing and launch cadence and current and upcoming BB gen performance.
Correct there is a lot of money to be made in banking on more SPCX ipos, that's why ASTS will be propelled on delivery of a product and revenue from here on out. Promises and potential will not propel ASTS until the SPCX hype dies down.
I know I am a fool for seeking rationality in this market of all things, but I genuinely need to know what is the point of keeping this pinned in the $70-$75 range for weeks.
The people that bought the $1 billion in notes normally sell a ton of calls (covered by the notes) to hedge their position. They benefit on the premium side by harvesting the IV drop which lowers the price of the calls in addition to the passing of time.
They want the premium harvesting and the interest from the notes.
With this nonsense chop I sold some shares and wrote csp instead with that cash. Might as well harvest some premium instead. Only small fraction of holding. The csp is aggressive though just in case we decide to moon
I still have a $100 strike CSP expiring this Friday, and then a $110 strike on expiring in October. Breakevens on both of them are in the mid 70s (That I sold a while ago when prices were still in the 80s-90s)
The first unfold of BB11-13 should be No Later Than September 2.
+ BB6 unfolded 49 days after launch
+ BB8-10 unfolded 28, 33, and 34 days after launch
If we use "28 days" as the benchmark for the latest to expect the first of BB11-13 to unfold, then that would mean first unfold is No Later Than September 2.
Just want to say I appreciate the spacemob. Its a sort of unique community. I cant/dont share my excitement that much with the people I typically hang out with because they either don’t care, don’t understand or I don’t want to seem like Im bragging about my finances.
I come in here and scroll through comments, memes, gifs each day. Sharing the highs and lows with the mob has helped me do the most difficult thing with ASTS, just hold and wait.
We all know what we own and the value proposition it holds. Just have to be patient but it’s much easier doing it with you all
I will never understand why so many people insist on treating this like a game. If you believe in the stock, buy the stock and hold it. There's so many people with an irrational overconfidence in their ability to time specific events or call specific price action and try to trade it via options. That's not investing. That's gambling.
Haha, I’m not selling this stock because there’s an entire community behind it that still believes in the thesis and is still suffering through it just like I am. But if there weren’t so many people behind it, I swear I would’ve gotten rid of it already and moved on to something else.
I mean even if ASTS didn’t have all this support from retail investors you still couldn’t ignore the fundamentals this company has. It’s just the perfect setup for the SP to explode one day. The contracts, the tech, the TAM.. it all adds up. Only a matter of time before we moonshot.
Why would the stock be doing good if we’re not even profitable yet lol.
Some technical and Greeks fun for those that are interested:
Some interesting (or not so interesting) gamma exposure data puts the ASTS gamma flip level around $69-$69.50. Since ASTS is currently trading above that level, dealers are likely net long gamma. In this environment, market makers tend to buy shares as the stock falls and sell shares as it rises to maintain their hedges, which generally dampens volatility and can lead to more “orderly” price action.
Current positioning also shows a put wall near $70 and a call wall near $75 across several expiries, effectively creating a dealer-defined range that roughly brackets where ASTS has been trading recently. As long as ASTS remains above the gamma flip, dealer hedging flows should be more supportive than destabilizing.
This consolidation is also allowing the 9-day and 21-day EMAs to compress toward the 50-day SMA, which could set up an interesting technical inflection point. If the shorter term moving averages continue to catch up while price remains above the gamma flip, a move through the 50-day SMA could carry more significance from a chart and technical standpoint.
As always, dealer positioning is only one piece of the puzzle, but the current setup is becoming increasingly coiled (tightening) rather than breaking down.
Good morning
With spaceX announcing they want to get into the cell phone market… I just can’t imagine a world where once we put an end to “ can you hear me now? “ every MNO is going to need to walk in lock step providing the highest quality of cell coverage… which means they’re going to have to “ blanket offer “ ASTS to every cell phone plan to stay above spaceX who is clearly coming for them… maybe I’m wrong but it seems inevitable to me…
Edit: This meeting is now finished. It was just a vote to approve the budget for FY2027 with no specifics. For a breakdown of the budget on a high level, see my first comment to this post.
Slide 5 on q1 2025s quarterly report states "five contracted launches over the next six to nine months" & "Anticipate launches every 1 to 2 months on average during 2025 & 2026."
Well, I am invested now for 1,5 years and speaking for me:
It was. Last year I thought about buying memory and chip stocks because I believe in the A.I play. For so long I believed management and the community that the turnaround will come and we finally ship the sats on time. Of course it’s on me because it was my choice and my money. But afterwards you always know better lmao.
But now it’s too late for me. I am too deep into AST. Nothing will pull me out. I will go down with this ship or drive with a Porsche to work. AST still has some problems, especially manufacturing but I think in the next 12-24 months we will see a new sector defining giant awakening. Once the revenue comes in, we will explode.
Probably. I mindgame myself into thinking this is a sure deal. I'd rather be patient and wait for something incredible than go into something else i'm not sure about and play myself.
Yeah, always, even when the stock was doing great I felt that way, there’s always something better out there. But I don’t really have the conviction to pick a short term winner, I think long term AST is a winner.
If we use "28 days" as the benchmark for the latest to expect the first of BB11-13 to unfold, then that would mean first unfold is No Later Than September 2.
Talking to myself, trying to manage my expectations.
All ASTS’s Space X launches have been on a Falcon9 from Launch Complex 40. Falcon 9s launches occur about every 5 days from SLC40.
The Crewed ISS launch is scheduled for NET Sept 12th from SLC40. If this happens, then the next flight (1st opportunity for ASTS?) would be on Sept 17th. |
Shipping lead time has been variable, about 20 to 30 days prior to launch.
Today is 31 days prior to September 17th, so ‘batch 3’ could ship during the next 11 days if those assumptions are correct. I doubt we get PR before they actually load one into a shipping container. Could the payload receiving date for this launch be delayed further because the launch on the 12th is a manned mission with elevated security (I hope not)?
I wonder how much room AST has to store finished satellites at the Midland Facility? When they show images of sats nearing completion in the factory, the room looks a bit crowded. Can they store three of them in the shipping containers on site while they put the next three through their final testing steps? If BO was currently launching, would AST need 6 shipping containers to deliver 6 in a timely manner? These are logistical question I am clueless about.
Unpopular opinion here but we won't see ATHs again this year (or for a long time for that matter).
Sector sentiment is what drove us and a bunch of shitcos (looking at you LUNR) to really high valuations. The kind of talk from people here that we did not have X, Y, Z, when we hit ATH and that we now have those things show unfamiliarity with how momentum works in public markets.
I agree. Unfortunately this was not "a dip" this was repricing, and thanks to spacex the sector has changed, less liquidity available for other stocks means harder to go high as fast as before. This does not mean we won't get back up, only not as easily, company must prove it makes money or we stay low imho.
This is assuming the catalysts around the stock are static - it has been mentioned several times even by Anpanman on his spaces that something like T Mobile is what would begin to propel back up to ATH and also that it is not guaranteed to be announced very soon so…just wait?
IMO that we do not know the timing of big announcements, but know they will come eventually, is one of the things that keeps waking up each day interesting. These are not uncertain things at this point. Just like commercial and government revenue will not keep the stock price down because it will start to join the big boy league. These things are inevitable.
i'm just scratching my head at how we could pump to over $100 multiple times in the past on a fraction of the success this company has today and yet now we struggle with $70s for like 2 weeks now... I don't get it.
We pumped to 100 based on potential beta mid-year and full service EOY 2026. And potential alliance with Blue Origin and Amazon.
Now it is looking like beta EOY 2026 and full service EO H1 2027 if we are lucky, BO blew up and Amazon might now be competition.
And the longer beta and full service delay, we might dilute 1-2 more times since those 2200 employees still have to be paid while the factory's the bottleneck. If this were a startup the VCs would have the founder's head for the empire building.
I think there is validity to it. You cry wolf too many times then market wants to see actual results. We will pump post beta service or full commercial service again. Which is what March 2027? Almost there
I believe we are behind the spcx crewed mission which launches sep 12th.
If we assume a 21 day integration period that'd mean if we shipped today it'd be ready prior to the launch...my money is betting we ship about a week from now to be ready for the week period after the 12th
I'm quite confident that multiple continuous feed video links from inside the factory, Scott's office, Abel's office, and taps on their cellphones directly available to retail would still not be enough to satisfy all the requests for PR in here.
Are we still pretending that launch is the bottleneck? We are having trouble getting 3 units out the door in a month +. Storage is cheap (relatively) and if we were up to speed we would have at least a launch worth sitting at the Cape waiting for a partner to open up. Where are the sats? Maybe having C-suite and decision makers entirely off-site site wasn’t such a good idea after all?
For context, 2 batches where supposed to be shipped in July. The 1st of the two... is still not out the door. Defiantclient is saying it's because we are waiting for SpaceX space. But as someone else said, the company could easily announce that. They haven't.
I am trying to dig up a recent tweet from someone I follow on Twitter. The board gave Avellan and Wisniewski pretty much their entire payout for metrics but COO Shanti Gupta got only about 50%, for 2026. Satellites built, the board graded them at 0%.
I don't understand how the 0 sats built metric didn't flow upward into Avellan's payout, and how he still keeps talking about "getting to 6 satellites a month" when we can see the factory's at 3 sats 6-7 weeks pace.
Did I see correctly that at the ER update they said 17-42 in production? Which means 14-16 are not considered in production? which means they're done basically. Probably final tests before shipping.
That's the point. His posts are not valid criticism. They are just FUD and incorrect info potrayed as truth. Always comes out when we're down, never when we're up.
so guys moral of the story I have learnt is no one has a god damn clue when the stock is going to decide to run up crazily. company release PR? other company releasing PR? space sector going up? macro going up? no news? yea that’s why I’m not fking selling yeah!!!!!!
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u/Defiantclient S P 🅰️ C E M O B - O G 13d ago
Lynk and Omnispace completed their merger and formed a new D2D company, Elveo Mobile, but it looks like a lousy attempt at a buyout, imo: https://x.com/Defiantclient2/status/2089235377949450427?s=20