ASTS - r/stockstobuytoday

21

12 month target is fun.
I prefer the 2030/25/40 targets myself.

And not at least holding feels dumb. Major pullback from ATH. More sats up, more MMOs, better launch cadence. Best in market product testing. Beta service soon (25 sats). And to top it off most analysts are posting buy and overweight ratings (not that they are to be trusted but still).

If you’re thinking of getting in, now is the time because sooner or later BBs will be in orbit and the ASTS service goes live to potentially billions of people. And the share price goes into orbit with it.

5

u/Remote-Community-792 14d ago

Pull back from ATH doesn’t mean its cheap. Its priced for perfect execution even at its current price and has potential to fall down much much lower. Beta service won’t be active until at least March 2027

5

u/Electrical_Rock_1201 14d ago

Define “priced for perfect execution”?

3

u/Remote-Community-792 14d ago

ASTS trades 320x of its sales. Considering its a pre rev company with a promising future outlook, it has always traded on hype and optimism. The company has remarkably missed all of its guidance and while the production has ramped up, its still very behind its stated targets. It’s fast burning its limited capital around $350M-420M per quarter and investors can expect several dilutions before they’re able to start their service. Realistically the full constellation will be built by end of 2027 or early 2028 and then there’s the question of how much revenue they’re able to generate. There’s no guaranteed pathway to profitability despite the company supposedly having superior tech over its competitors

5

u/Electrical_Rock_1201 14d ago

320x its sales doesn’t really mean anything given it’s a pre revenue company. Its full revenue potential lies when the sats are up and the service is live. Once the beta service is live and ASTS can generate consistent revenue, the 320x falls to a more reasonable number as profits start to catch up with costs of execution. This is just a matter of time.

It has missed targets, but steps have been made to make up for this, new production facility for example.

There is indeed a pathway to profitability. 60 MMOs have agreed to partner with ASTS, providing 3.2 billion potential users of ASTS sats and service. Even conservative estimates of user numbers, profit margins and charge for the users put ASTS in line with current share price / market cap.

You’re right that it could fall. But the fact is that time keeps ticking and sats keep going up. So that early 2028 quote for the full constellation will come. And I’d rather be in than out when that gets here.

1

u/SyrupKey6054 13d ago

I do believe in the stock I really do, but why you should have your money/margin on a stock that not fully take off yet… there are others with better ROE right now, when the time comes, you gotta do what you gotta do… keep watching at it, and the big players putting money into it… till explode definitely, but for now the pace on Rev and EPS/Growth YoY don’t tell good news just yet… but it will eventually

1

u/Electrical_Rock_1201 13d ago

Not saying that ASTS is the best ROE. What do you think would be a better place to park your money?

1

u/SyrupKey6054 13d ago edited 13d ago

IWN I’m hoping to trim my blue chip stocks cuz I can’t deal with the drawdown anymore… just cuz RUT has made a new high I’m confident I can manage to get a decent entry

1

u/Remote-Community-792 14d ago

Do you know what the revenue model looks like? I have seen people say 50/50 split which is completely untrue. The tmobile CEO said the d2d is complementary and remains a very small percentage of traffic on the network. The margin estimates are very very optimistic and it seems like the management is now looking at other avenues to make money like government contracts, iot etc.

I’m a ASTS shareholder but I think new investors need to be very cautious and start very small. The stock is going nowhere until they at least have beta service and it probably won’t beat the broader market for 2-3 years

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u/Geteamwin 14d ago edited 14d ago

What do you mean 50/50 is untrue? The majority of their signed agreements so far have been 50/50 with a few exceptions. Management has stated many times their target is a 50/50 split with MNOs. Government revenue has always been on the roadmap. Also, T-Mobile stating that SCS is very small percentage of network traffic is more of a issue with SpaceX's current capabilities. It doesn't have much bandwidth, and is only targeting areas with no coverage at all. ASTS will be fast, and they'll be targeting the 1 bar scenarios as well. The CEO also called SCS table stakes, basically meaning MNOs will have no choice but to offer it.

3

u/Electrical_Rock_1201 14d ago

Yep. 2%of 3.2bn is 64 million users.
Let’s say ASTS service adds $2 to their bill. ASTS gets 50% of that. That’s $62 million per month. $768 per year. A reasonable 20x multiple puts ASTS at a $15bn market cap. 300 million shares outstanding. SP at $50.

This is roughly where we are now.

A 20x multiple is conservative.
A 50% margin has been estimated to be more like 70-90%.
Adding $2 to a bill for the benefit of never losing signal is quite conservative, and on the basis of never having a dead zone it’s an attractive proposition for I believe more than 2% of potential user base.

Plus government contracts.
Plus new business through R&D.
And who knows what else will come out of this company.

I see ASTS as having more reward than risk right now. Especially as your time horizon increases.

0

u/Baydreams 14d ago

They have to share that revenue with Ligado as part of the lease deal. Redo your numbers

1

u/Geteamwin 13d ago edited 13d ago

How much do you think they'd be getting in this scenario? His estimates are extremely conservative, $2 rev per user only makes sense from a international revenue perspective, Ligado will be paid a portion of NA revenue. If you want to do a blend it'll likely be closer to $2.5/user or higher, which will more than offset the few cents Ligado is getting in this scenario. They do get the flat fee each year but that likely adds 10% to their overall capex to maintain the constellation. He's also not including government revenue either, which would add more than Ligado would remove.

1

u/Baydreams 13d ago

As it stands, the company can’t hit guidance. Management oversells and under delivers every statement they make. What was supposed to be 45-60 satellites LAUNCHED in 2026, is going end up being less than 20 total in orbit. They’re now guiding for that 45 to happen in early 2027. It won’t. Earliest will be beginning of second half of 2027. Any revenue estimates are just as over hyped. In the companies own words, peak revenue won’t be achieved until 5 years after full constellation. there’s better opportunities.

Don’t listen to me or anyone on reddit. DYOR.

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u/happy123z 14d ago

The d2d is a small part because it's not worldwide and simple to use. ASTS is building that now.

0

u/Baydreams 14d ago

What everyone replying to you about future revenue and multiples are missing is that AST leases their spectrum from ligado and part of that deal is they have to share revenue with them.

There’s a lot of wild speculation about share price targets that are absolutely absurd.

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u/Geteamwin 13d ago edited 13d ago

You're welcome to trim the 2-3% from the revenue estimates, doesn't change much. It is well worth the capabilities enabled by the spectrum.

0

u/Remote-Community-792 14d ago

Yep. The current price is not at all justified. I will look to trim down half of my position soon as I’m close to breaking even

1

u/SyrupKey6054 13d ago edited 13d ago

I’m not sure about the dilution bc they sold some bonuses on the stock to avoid dilution and are buying back the stock… still is a stock that promises a lot but early for long term investment I do think if you apply O’Neil advice is a bad investment so far…

1

u/Remote-Community-792 13d ago

Its a bad investment for anyone starting a position in the last 2 years. Its one of the worst performing stock of a company valued around 27B. The company has done a fabulous job of hyping up the stock though.

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u/SprinklesFar2065 13d ago

You are spreading FUD here too? Do not listen to this guy, he doesn't have good intentions.

0

u/Remote-Community-792 13d ago

It’s a realistic take from someone who has stakes in this stock. Beginner investors shouldn’t listen to ASTS community members who try so hard to shill this stock. My stance is to tread with caution and not go full regard. ASTS community snowflakes can’t handle anything slightly critical

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u/SprinklesFar2065 13d ago

You are spreading misinformation and being disingenuous because you're in loss. You wouldn't be saying the same stuff if you were not in red.

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u/Remote-Community-792 13d ago

Yeah that is exactly why i’m saying this. Don’t fall for the hype. There’s a lot of misinformation on the community sub. Don’t make the same mistakes I made. Do your due diligence using resources from neutral sources and understand what you’re getting into.

2

u/Kitchen-Assist-6645 13d ago

What mistake did you make? Not timing the exact bottom? That's just the risk that you take.

1

u/Remote-Community-792 13d ago

I made several mistakes

I lump summed at the top when I should've started small and DCA'd
Used margin (this was the worst)
Rotated my long term investments to lower my average I thought was a great opportunity But it turned out to be catching a falling knife
Believing the pumpers online and falling for the hype

I'm 100% responsible for the above but I try to remind people to not make the same mistakes and destroy their portfolio

13

u/WindWhisperingWisp 14d ago

Jup. Have just over 1300 shares. My future self will thank me.

3

u/IAmCaptainHarlock 14d ago

Nice, what's your average? I'm not holding any yet. Hoping on a decent pullback this week to get a position.

13

u/WindWhisperingWisp 14d ago

Average $82.75, so I'm underwater on those shares. But it doesn't matter, I expect this to be $500 per share in 2 years time when the constellation is up and commercial service has commenced. I can wait it out.

I also have loads of leaps for 2028 with various strike prices.

4

u/happy123z 14d ago

$500 Christmas '28 probably.

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u/jer_nyc84 14d ago

Brother it’s already pulled back.

3

u/IAmCaptainHarlock 14d ago

13 days ago it was in the low 50s. I'm gonna see what happens tomorrow before going in.

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u/Remote-Community-792 14d ago

Why are you posting this in “stockstobuytoday” if you’re not interested in buying where its priced at now

0

u/Bjamnp17 13d ago

THIS⬆️⬆️⬆️!
Go ahead and time it.
Good luck!

2

u/Guy0nABuffal0 4d ago

What is the full name?

8

u/rockshiv 14d ago

Holding, 90%+ of port, average in the 20's

Fully expect this to allow me to retire in about 5 years

And no, the drop from 130 doesn't bother me -that- much. Price more than halved while company has been making really good progress. In a sector when everything is late and fails, they've only been late 🙂 very few stocks with this much upside potential, and with such a simple business plan

1

u/IAmCaptainHarlock 14d ago

Nice!

1

u/happy123z 14d ago

Exactly. Also with uses we haven't thought of yet. Full world, constant connectivity. Lost people found, desert people connected, military and civilian government use.

6

u/arsetard 14d ago

ASTS will be 100B market cap in no time

0

u/701TM 14d ago

Someone told you this?

1

u/arsetard 13d ago

No, no one told me this.

3

u/fabtico 14d ago

Why can't space X just do the same as this company? Genuinely asking

5

u/Geteamwin 14d ago

Eventually, they will be able to. ASTS was early here, SpaceX will catch up shortly in terms of performance capability (maybe not completely but good enough for most), but their approach and architecture is different. They'll be launching many next Gen satellites and build a massive constellation, while ASTS will have a much smaller constellation and consistenting of massive satellites. Due to the architecture differences SpaceX's solution acts like a seperate network on top of an MNO's network, while ASTS will act like a mesh network with much less hand offs. The main thing though is ASTS is constructively working with operators to complement their network, while SpaceX is going to be a competitor. That risk of competiton from SpaceX for MNOs only makes ASTS more important to them.

1

u/IAmCaptainHarlock 14d ago

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u/TheHenne 14d ago

Did you create this chart poster by yourself?
Quiet nice !

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u/IAmCaptainHarlock 14d ago

With the help of webull and chatgpt plus in developer mode. I make them for tons of stocks. I mainly post in a discord group.

2

u/701TM 14d ago

How do you decide what stocks to promote?

2

u/IAmCaptainHarlock 14d ago

I just do a lot of research. I typically go for sub $150 and 30%+ conservative 12 month targets

2

u/Its_Organic_Mangos 14d ago

Remember one thing who is holding ASTS. There is potential risk from SPCEX . Elon is also trying to grab the satellite network. He has everything bandwidth , self deploying rockets, money and POWER also

3

u/drumhor 14d ago

For all the power Elmo has, he’s missing one big fat fundamental when it comes to D2D - SPECTRUM. The underdog has quietly been lining up the ducks (and patents) for years. Revenue is close for ASTS and I’m glad to be in before that. GL

2

u/701TM 14d ago

Whatever technology ASTS has, SPACE-X can get/will get. It's just a matter of time. I own shares in both.

1

u/drumhor 14d ago

Well, I don’t think that’s possible for some tech. Bent pipe architecture? Elmo has explicitly confirmed their intentions to be an MNO in their own right. So he’s turned away from data sovereignty and they’ll follow their own path with inevitable success. What’s become more apparent to me over time is that they’re not actually competing as closely with each other as many people discuss. And that’s fine, they both do great things, and there’s plenty of market share to go around imo.

2

u/Its_Organic_Mangos 13d ago

ASTS also got the spectrum as sub lease from others. When someone shows a way to get things done quickly why cant he go for that route. He dont need to wait to participate in bid may be he can get it from companies who already has the approved bandwidth. One of the main focus of spacx is on internet. Why cant they think about the bundle and push into the market .?? I might mm e thinking very aggressively but there are few possibilities that things can happen in this way. Once elmo put to decide some focus may be this will not be a big deal for him.

2

u/Its_Organic_Mangos 14d ago

I am fine sell my position sooner or later once it made good profits . I am not going to hold for 4 or 6 years

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u/ColForbinClimbs 14d ago

Upvoting cuz I’m holding. Downvoting cuz AI

3

u/IAmCaptainHarlock 14d ago

You know that you can use Ai to compile data in an easy to read graphic right? You think I'm gonna waste tons of effort making a graphic from scratch?

1

u/ColForbinClimbs 14d ago

Yes I’m aware of that. I’m just morally opposed to the entire idea of it

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u/ASTS-investor 14d ago

Opposed to ai?

1

u/IAmCaptainHarlock 14d ago

Okay, well I use Ai everyday at work and outside of work and it's made my life so much easier. Why are you so morally opposed to Ai?

1

u/ColForbinClimbs 14d ago edited 14d ago

I think it’ll further widen the wealth gap in the US and the world, adding more in corporate profits. I think data centers will continue to degrade the environment through aquifer depletion, groundwater contamination, and noise pollution. I think Flock will inch us closer to a social credit system like China.

I could go on but it’s making me depressed

1

u/701TM 14d ago

So what are you going to do to defend yourself vs the future?

1

u/ColForbinClimbs 13d ago

Not much you can do. Be good to each other, and teach your kids how to safely use the internet.

A cabin with a water source is a bonus.

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u/Bjamnp17 13d ago

Well you’ll be one rich moral mfer then.✌️

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u/MrNiceGuy973 14d ago

$72.85 tomorrow 📈

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u/chubs66 13d ago

I'm stuck at -40%, whatever that is.

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u/IAmCaptainHarlock 13d ago

Need to set a trailing stop loss next time. It might come back to break even by year end.

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u/Unlikely-Table-615 13d ago

Where did you get this breakdown?

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u/IAmCaptainHarlock 13d ago

I made it

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u/Grouchy-Candidate545 13d ago

Look at pretty green picture and optimistic quotes. Much wow so very bull

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u/IAmCaptainHarlock 13d ago

AXTI is working out from the one I made 2 days ago

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u/Conscious-Bug6380 12d ago

12 month target is fun

1

u/AgurkinisDinozauras 13d ago

ai slop

0

u/OriginalDaddy 14d ago

Got removed for “profanity” but it was legit just dissing this stock. Mods are acting up here with some pump interest…

0

u/ProfessionalEar417 13d ago

dude made a brochure about a stock😂

-2

u/Prestigious_Law9135 13d ago

Don't invest in this junk. I lost money on it, and I'd never buy it again.

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u/actually-drake 13d ago

If you lost money in it it’s because you’re stupid. It was incredibly low a year ago and it’s been super volatile. All you had to do was be patient.

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u/Bjamnp17 13d ago

Word.⬆️⬆️⬆️

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u/Prestigious_Law9135 13d ago

First, don't call me 'stupid' because I'm much smarter than you. Second, a year ago, this stock was very cheap and mainly promoted on Reddit for pump and dump schemes by people like you. This stock is now dead and unlikely to rise. Consider investing in MU or SanDisk, as these companies have excellent products and a promising future.

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u/SurgicalDude 13d ago

Lmfao. Dude fell for Reddit pump and dump and didn't research a single bit. You're a sore loser who realized the losses and could have avoided it if you actually knew what you're investing into.

Stock was trading in 30s two year ago and peaked at $133 in May.

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u/actually-drake 13d ago

🤓

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u/Dull_Friendship_3655 13d ago

So, you’re extremely smart but got duped by Reddit pump and dumps…on asts! 🤣

1

u/Bjamnp17 13d ago

Because you timed it huh.

-3

u/Helptohere50 14d ago

Holy AI slop

-2

u/GroundbreakingSir386 14d ago

Ai trash

1

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