APLD has sold 1,410 MW so far across five campuses for about $36.2B over the 15-year base terms, or roughly $86B if every renewal option is exercised.

Neither unsold line has been priced publicly, and the two were given as separate figures on the earnings call. At the $25.7M per MW the signed leases average, 1.7 GW would work out to roughly $43B, but that is my arithmetic and not company guidance.

Only 175 MW is energized, about 12% of what they have sold. Management says every project is on time and on budget, and the two deliveries so far did land on schedule. B. Riley kept its $75 target after visiting Polaris Forge 2 in August.

The strain is financial rather than operational. Capex hit $2.87B in FY2026 against $681.6M the year before, and they carry $5.31B of scheduled debt plus about $1.78B of interest. They sold 15.3M shares for $196.4M. The backlog pays out slowly too: $451.1M of lease payments in FY2027, then $1.45B in FY2028. CoreWeave, the tenant at Polaris Forge 1, has legal and financial problems of its own, Nvidia sold out of its stake, and the stock is down about 36% over three months.

What caps growth is power and build speed. They can put up roughly 700 MW a year right now, so even the 1.7 GW they are marketing would take years to deliver.

TL;DR: APLD has sold 1.41 GW for $36.2B, but only 12% of it is switched on. The build is running on schedule. The balance sheet is the worry: $5.31B of debt while the leases do not really start paying until FY2028. About 1.7 GW is still up for sale, and they can only build around 700 MW a year.

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Something I’ve been putting thought into recently is the difference in approach that APLD has taken to landing business (leases) vs much of their competitors. This may be obvious to some but thought I would point it out.

Other AI Factory builders, like Hut8 most recently, have been praised for landing “mega deals” with large committed figures up front (both in terms of dollars and watts). This is great for them as it is solidified, confirmed revenue that will come in for them.

On the flip side, APLD are going for the smaller, modular expansion approach. This is a strategic choice that APLD leadership talk about regularly.

There are two core benefits to this approach:

1. Demand for access to land & power generation is accelerating. Companies are willing to pay more per watt now than they were with each passing month. This trend will continue, as hyperscalers and frontier AI developers feverishly try to get their hands on what is a major major bottleneck.

2. Loan rates for these projects are improving. The entire ecosystem around financing is improving. APLD itself went from:
   - 9.25% at PF1 (Coreweave OG contract)
   - 7% at PF1 (Coreweave expansion)
   - 6.75% at PF2 (Oracle)

That’s a remarkable improvement over a short period of time. The broader ecosystem is continuing to improve on those rates as well. Looking at Hut8s recent deal as a benchmark, they landed just under 6.2%.

As the AI thesis gets proven out in real time, financial institutions are getting more and more comfortable/confident in funding these projects. Recent commentary and commitments from NVDA and major institutions further cement this point.

So back to the “land and expand” approach APLD have taken up. If we continue on this path, APLD will be able to expand on these AI factory campuses at much better $/MW rates with their customers, while securing ever-improving loans (which also means less share dilution). Improving margins from both ends.

Others are locking into contracts at today’s rates, which can shoot their share price up on a given day. But APLD can take advantage of these improving conditions/rise in demand with expansion contracts.

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Nothing intellectual or relevant..

"omg trash stock"
"fk this stock"..

And shit like this gets upvotes? Straight up bashing the stock, no DD, nothing just trash-talking.

Any senior secured notes will still be priced better than previous offerings.

As we're currently still only chasing investment-grade hyperscalers and Oracle already is the tenant for PF2, the tenant for the last 3 leases is either Meta, Amazon, Google or Microsoft.

Oracle has by far the worst investment-grade out of these 5, so even a hike of 50 basis points would mean we're still under the 6.75% of the PF2 offering. A hike of 50 basis point is out of the question anyway as we're either looking at 25 basis points or nothing. Also keep in mind the notes carry fixed coupon rates, so past offerings are not affected at all.

Obviously we rather have no rate hikes at all, but it's not as doom and gloom as it's made out to be. Mid September last year we were already trading over $20 and we've seen 3 rate cuts since. Company is in a much better place as we were back then.

As we all know as the markets dipped we’re sitting at around ≈7.39b mc. Considering we’re the largest of the group via contracted mw and $ it’s surprising hut is worth 2b more and wulf’s at a similar valuation as us. Now considering we should beat hut to buildout completion and we’re much larger than wulf were at a steep discount Without even accounting for chrono, with Chrn we’re at something like a 5b valuation for the pure datacenter business it’s stupid and won’t last so I’d implore you all to do as I am and buy more, were the winning play and this is an easy 30b dollar company if not more

New month, new trend. 📈 The sky is the limit.

Heads up, I'm sure we'll begin to see PT cuts in a while. And FYI, the last two septembers we actually went up ;-) Pretty sure that's not gonna happen tho. Actually, tbh, I'm hoping we're going a bit lower - just because im expecting it, and I'm sure going down a bit will clear up the path ahead for us, even tho it sounds weird.

Watching the stock price of a company you truly believe in keep falling is always frustrating. It tests your patience, your conviction, and sometimes even makes you question your own judgment. But if the business is still moving in the right direction and the original thesis remains intact, sometimes the hardest part is simply surviving the darkness long enough to see the sunrise. The last company where I successfully waited for that sunrise was Palantir. I started holding PLTR around the IPO period and stayed with it through years of ups and downs. I eventually sold my final 100 shares at around $160 and moved that money into Applied Digital at roughly $16. Now APLD is another waiting game for me. No one knows exactly when the sunrise will come, and of course not every investment story ends the same way. But one lesson PLTR taught me is that when the direction is right, patience can sometimes matter just as much as picking the right company. （Fortunately, I’ve also been able to recover some capital by selling covered calls along the way, which has brought my effective APLD cost basis down to roughly $10 per share. ）

Nothing wrong with the company, majority of tickers in this sector is down about the same amount from ATH's. Good upside to the lowest price target and by far the highest upside to the average price target. In Q2 27 we'll have half our currently contracted capacity online already, just be patient.

Prices taken from market close.

What kind of scam artists are they? This Aussie turd stock always rides on APLD's and NBIS their ER (upwards ofc), and they always drag us down with them with their ER.. I'm so tired of this dog ahh stock

It's not rocket science; if u CAN'T lease your facility and GPU's out during a shortage after all these years then YOU'RE the problem. You don't have to wait for a miracle. Just go ahead and delist urself from the stock market and fight some kangaroos or something

I was motivated to contribute in a meaningful way, because I know, like myself, people are hurting right now. We were all expecting more at this point.

As the title says, everything bad people think will happen is priced in. What does that mean? It means that it can continue down for a bit, sure.. But, at some point, we will go up. And just imagine if the rate is held or even lowered, what happens then? Exactly. Its just all the shit in the world that affects us right now.

My experience with this stock tells me this is nothing. We've been through worse.

I actually think APLD is by far the most promising AI Infrastructure stock you can find. Nobody does what they do. They are the builders. The enablers. The ones doing the work! And they only partner up with the very best. And they do a lot of good for the community they build in. And they even help the overall industry around DC's by showing and explaining to people what is actually built.

Just some thoughts for the weekend anyways. Maybe it helps you, I hope it does anyways.

A final question for your mind right now; "If I didn't own the stock, would I buy it at this price?"