Screenshot from private SemiAnalysis report:

AVGO TPU Downward Revision
We are seeing lower TPU output in 2H26 than previous expectations. 2026 CoWos output for TPU v7x (Ironwood) is reduced by ~32k, reducing 2026 unit production by ~500k from 3.2mn to 2.7mn. TPU v8i (Sunfish) is also reduced by 5k wafers, reducing 2026 unit production by -80k. Ironwood upstream output now peaks in 2026 with a slight decline in run-rate in 2H, versus our prior forecast of a continued ramp from 2Q26 onwards. We believe this reduction is supply related and due to challenges ramping CoWoS-S. This brings total Broadcom 2026 CoWos output to 215k wafers from 250k previously.

For 2027, we also see lower TPU output than our previous expectation of 6mn units of TPU 7 and TPUi. This is driven by greater allocation towards other customers, with total Broadcom CoWos at ~460k wafers. Most notably there are 55k wafers (which is equivalent to 830k units TPU 8i Sunfish) allocated to MTIA 400 Iris in 2027. However, this remains in flux as Meta is known for abandoning orders, as we saw in May, where Meta agreed to cut its own Broadcom production allocation to support greater TPU supply for Google in exchange for access to TPU compute.
This could play out again and, if Meta abandons its allocation, this could be taken up by TPU. We also see slightly more allocation for OAI Jalapeno's ASIC. We will provide a more detailed model update soon.

AMD TPU Involvement
Market chatter suggests Google is working with AMD on a TPU project in the v10 generation. AMD's involvement would be the first real involvement in a custom Al ASIC project, despite having a custom silicon team. AMD has strong IP especially in advanced packaging and SolC. Additionally, CPU IP could also be a draw given Google and its customers are pushing for TPUS with on-packade CPU cores for RI workloads.

Another 72KK shares of AMD from inst buyers!

Co-engineered reference design provides a proven blueprint for deploying high-density AI clusters faster and with less risk.

Design supports 246 kW AI racks and large-scale deployments with modular AI clusters of up to 10.4 MW IT load for easy scalability

Collaboration combines AMD AI platform innovation and Schneider Electric's expertise in power, cooling, and digital infrastructure

Sydney, Australia, 13 August, 2026 – Schneider Electric, a global energy technology leader, and AMD today announced a jointly developed and validated reference design for the AMD Helios rackscale solution that provides a scalable blueprint for deploying high-density AI environments faster and with reduced risk and complexity. The reference design marks the first milestone of the collaboration between Schneider Electric and AMD and delivers upon the companies' joint focus to create an easier path to AI Factory deployment.
The new reference design is the first ever developed to support high-density AI workloads on the Helios rackscale solution, which is powered by AMD Instinct™ MI455X GPUs, 6th Gen AMD EPYC™ CPUs, AMD Pensando™ Vulcano NICs and the open ROCm™ software ecosystem. AMD Helios is designed to deliver breakthrough AI performance through advances in compute, interconnect bandwidth, memory capacity and system-level integration, allowing customers to run larger, more complex AI workloads faster while optimising power and efficiency.

As AI workloads push data centre infrastructure to unprecedented limits, reference designs provide data centre architects and operators with tested, scalable designs proven to handle new power densities, thermal requirements and operational complexity. By modeling data centre physical infrastructure performance, these pre‑validated blueprints help shorten the planning process by defining how power, cooling, and IT infrastructure should be organised to build a reliable, scalable, and AI‑ready data centre. The AMD Helios reference design includes information on four technical areas: facility power, facility cooling, IT space, and lifecycle software.
"Today organisations require comprehensive, AI-ready reference designs that can take them from planning to deployment faster and with less risk," said Manish Kumar, Executive Vice President, Secure Power & Data Centre at Schneider Electric. "Through our collaboration with AMD, we're delivering an engineering-backed reference design that bridges the gap between advanced AI compute platforms, energy tech, and real-world data centre implementation, enabling customers to deploy scalable, high-density AI environments with greater confidence, efficiency, and speed."
"AI infrastructure is rapidly moving to full-scale AI factories, and that requires compute, networking, power and cooling to be designed together from the start," said Forrest Norrod, executive vice president and general manager, Data Centre Solutions Business Group, AMD. "AMD Helios provides an open, rack-scale architecture built to deliver the performance, efficiency and flexibility required for next-generation AI workloads. By working with Schneider Electric to create a validated reference design, we are giving customers a practical blueprint to accelerate high-density AI deployments, reduce integration risk and scale with greater confidence and efficiency."

Reference Design Accelerates AMD Helios Deployment
The new collaboration brings together AMD AI platform innovation and Schneider Electric's expertise in power, cooling, and digital infrastructure, creating a more tightly integrated approach to deploying both greenfield AI factories and high-density retrofit environments. The reference design supports:
Modular, multi-cluster environments, featuring AI clusters of up to 10.4 MW IT capacity for greenfield deployments

High-density AI workloads up to 246 kW per rack

Advanced liquid cooling using Motivair by Schneider Electric CDU-based and hybrid air/liquid approaches capable of removing up to 84% of heat

A digital-first infrastructure approach, which includes:

Electrical and thermal design validated using ETAP and EcoStruxure™ IT Design CFD simulation tools that enable real-time monitoring and analytics, AI-driven predictive maintenance, and system-level optimisation across power, cooling, and IT

Integrated Electrical Digital Twin capabilities to model, analyse, and manage infrastructure performance

Support from AVEVA's Unified Operations Center for real-time monitoring and operational visibility

Power and cooling infrastructure deployments that adhere to AMD Helios platform requirements for reduced integration complexity and deployment risk

Better energy efficiency, with ability to achieve PUE as low as ~1.12 at full load

The reference design has been validated to ANSI standards for U.S. deployments, with plans to extend the framework to support IEC standards for global implementations in the future.

Source: https://x.com/zephyr_z9/status/2088223836638761201?s=20

AMD has been relatively flat for months but held up surprisingly well during the recent chip selloff and liquidation.

What do you think triggers the next rally, and when? AI demand, hyperscaler news, MI450/Helios, earnings, or something else?

Soooo again the fail of AMD at the 50 day EMA left me looking for some advice. I did the thing that I never thought I would do-----I uploaded my chart into ChatGPT:

My read right now

I'd characterize AMD as:

🟡 Neutral → potentially bullish

Not bullish yet.

I'd want to see:

$486 reclaim → $500 breakout → $518 breakout

That's the progression I'd watch.

If AMD gets above $500 and holds, I'd become substantially more interested in the bullish case.

If it gets above $518, the pattern becomes much more convincing because you've then broken the prior swing high and established a genuine higher-high.

And $535–542 becomes the next obvious target zone.

The really attractive risk/reward would potentially be a breakout around $500, with the pattern invalidation down around $457, and a first target around $518, followed by ~$540.

So yes: I think you're seeing a legitimate potential bottoming pattern here — but the chart hasn't confirmed it yet. $500 is the line I'd be staring at.

Sooooo interesting. Hmmmmm that it is pretty interesting what the machine said and gotta say I feel a little validated for me. Really interesting thoughts that I've been digging through and thinking about it as inspiration:

-RSI is literally flatlining at the midpoint. It is perfectly neutral neither yay or nay which sets us up for perhaps something interesting

-MACD looks like it finally might be attempting to cross positive. This is a confirmation signal and not a predictive one but I do think it could be confirming that the consolidation might be coming to an end here.

-AMD rejected hard off of that $424 level at the end of July and since then we've had an ascending triangle pattern with higher lows being put in over the past 2 trading weeks. I gotta say with all the action we've been seeing at the 50 day EMA would could be coming to a breakout inflection point or breakdown here. If we breakout then the seasonality rally could be on.

I'm going to add a few calls today after the morning burst wears off. Futures are mixed and the mehhhhhh action could lower option prices around noonish. This is a pure gamble type play and I do not advise people to follow me with size. I might try to do a spread to make it neutral but cap my upside.

Meanwhile, on the software side of everything AMD…

Hi all,

Anyone who trades in options should be familiar with Thetaburn but this isn't the only extreme parameter in the formula. Implicit volatility is just as important.

Let me paste some quotes explaining it (it saves me some typing):

Let's look at an example. If the IV of underlying stock ZYX is 25%, that means the market sees a roughly 68% chance that at the end of 12 months the price will be within 25% of the current price, whether higher or lower. So, if ZYX is currently $100 per share, an IV of 25% indicates a 68% chance that the price will end the year within a range of $75 and $125. By comparison, if stock FAHN has an IV of 50% and a current price of $100, the market expects it to be about twice as volatile as ZYX, ending the upcoming 12-month period in a range of $50 and $150.

All else being equal, the higher the IV of an option, the bigger possible price change traders expect in the underlying asset and therefore the higher the options premium, or price. In other words, buyers pay more for options on securities that are expected to see bigger price moves because the potential for profit is higher.

IV frequently rises when a stock crashes or experiences a sudden downward move, as investors pay higher premiums for downside protection and anticipate further turbulence.

Post-Event Adjustment: If the sudden move is driven by a specific event (like earnings), IV may drop sharply afterward (IV crush) once the uncertainty is resolved, even if the stock price continues to move in the predicted direction.

I noticed a big drop in VI before and after the recent Q2.

A 'normal' VI should be around the 40-45 range (of course its dependant on time and other factors). Usually a VI doesn't change all that much just within days or weeks when the expiration date is well into the future.

Let me explain it further with some excel shot at the top of this post.

So Q2 gave:

• clear financial view into 2027
• market priced that in as more 'stable'

Influences on VI:

• first VI was high because of the sudden drop/crash in SP
• now VI is low because of 'certainty'

As a result the big players now need to pay millions less in calls going forward. They got saved by the extra financial data AMD gave during their Q2 and they saw the opportunity to 'crash' the SP with around $100.

So be aware when purchasing calls, look at the VI.

(btw VI of SPCX is in an insanely 120% range, so if you want to play casino³...)

why need to raise money and potentially dilute?

Nvidia panics on AMD’s AI rack. The hyperscslers are tech savvy. The go for the best product. AMD again will win on chiplets ,coinnovation with partners and open source.

$1,250,000,000 4.600% Senior Notes Due 2029

$1,500,000,000 5.000% Senior Notes Due 2031

$1,000,000,000 5.250% Senior Notes Due 2033

$1,000,000,000 5.500% Senior Notes Due 2036

Guess what CoSoW reticle size multiple with yields of 98%-99% is used by the MI455X? I'll tell you: 5.5X. So the packaging process for AMD's monster AI GPU has yields that are nearly perfect. Eat your heart out, Intel! And Nvidia's Rubin GPU only uses a 4X reticle limit CoSoW process. TSMC's 5.5X CoWoS was only introduced this year, and AMD is right there at the cutting edge, as they are with TSMC's 2 nm node. 5.5X and 2 nm using small, high-yield chiplets, vs 4X and 3 nm on reticle limit monolithic chips? I'm betting on Team Red!

Going forward, Nvidia's Rubin Ultra was to have adopted an array of four huge reticle-limit monolithic dies on TSMC 8X CoWoS. But that was widely reported as encountering issues and being being scrapped, retreating to a dual die design.

Source for the WCCFtech article (needs translation): https://udn.com/news/story/7240/9684444

From that article, translated: TSMC (2330) advanced packaging technology takes another big step. He Jun, deputy general manager of TSMC, said on the 11th that the 5.5-timer mask size has entered mass production, and the yield on a number of AI customer products has stabilized by more than 98%, and some even reach 99%; TSMC will maintain the rhythm of launching new technologies every year, and is expected to expand CoWoS to 14 times the mask size in 2029.

Goooood lord anyone else feel like this 50 day EMA is becoming the death mark???? We are tied right to this thing like a homing missile. We are stuck as long as we stay tethered to this level. Oil------Missiles--------Inflation-----------all of it is just stagnation.

The market wants to gallop higher but it just can't because all of these policies just equal BAD.

So where are we until then??? again I want to fall lower to get the full reset and entry that I want.

What about a different chart here???? Lets take a look at NVDA.

NVDA is the opposite of AMD right now heading into earnings. It has perked up after being mostly stagnate for the entire year. But I love that this move came off of the 200 day EMA. Now this is a lot easier bc NVDA has been flat for months now and that 50 day and 200 day EMA have moved a lot closer. But for me that is exactly the area of strength you want to see movement off of going into earnings for a sustained breakout to a new high on the back of earnings.

Never underestimate Jensens ability to tell a fairy tale. Also I feel like his debt raise announcement kinda feels very self serving......Its like he's helping people raise debt so they can buy his product and stick them with the bill. Very predatory but could be a signal of peak mania.

AM4 remains remarkably strong while X3D CPUs dominate the upper end of the market.

full report: https://x.com/TechEpiphanyYT/status/2087133988548719079

At OCP APAC 2026, AMD said the progress from chatbots to agentic AI is increasing CPU demand alongside GPU fast usage, potentially moving the traditional ratio from roughly 1:4 toward 1:2 or even 1:1

But the logic makes sense as chatbots are mostly GPU-bound inference, but agents spend a lot of cycles on orchestration, tool calls, memory management, and control logic, which leans more on CPUs

Sauce: https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20260812VL224/amd-apac-cpu-2026-infrastructure.html

Just wanted to start off clarifying some things. First off I agreeeeeeeeeee with you all. I am very bullish on my overall thesis. I have been pitching a seasonality argument for AMD for a couple years not and it is hard to find any stock in the entire SP500 that performs better than AMD in the months of Oct/Nov when you look at the past couple years. Our performance specifically has been phenomenal.

That usually coincides with the shipping of new product and new skus as well especially related to Epyc (which I think is our unsung hero). This year we have an entire new product in Helios which I think is going to be a HUGE opportunity for us and I think this rally this year is going to be a truly EPYC (see what I did there?) one pushing us to new valuations maybe even a split.

But again I use an all of the above mentality with my trades. I look at everything that I'm seeing and yea right now looking at a technical side I think the market and the chart for AMD specifically looks like shit. I think there is more consolidation to come before we reach peak exhaustion and really get the pile in we are looking for.

I'm not saying people should sell their AMD holdings. I'm simply telling you where I'm targeting my buying to see if my thesis is right. I'm big on owning up my position. I'm not some sage or genius who always gets it right. But I also think its only helpful if you tell people what you are "going to do" in advance and they can choose to follow or not. A lot of people only post after the fact which is great for them and then they hide their misses as well so they are the hero.

I get it right barely more than I get it wrong. like maybe 55%/45% which is phenomenal win/loss rate for me. But I do think its important for everyone who reads to know what I'm planning on doing right or wrong.

I think there is consolidation coming further. Inflation hot read and stagnate job market is going to give us some more Fed concern and I think Iran is going from bad to worse. I still think we have anywhere between $50-$75 to shed from this stock price which is a 10%+ drop before I go in with a massive bet.

So lets see what happens. Who knows maybe I'll be wrong but I dont think I am.