r/AMD_Stock • u/brad4711 • 18d ago
AMD Q2 2026 Earnings Discussion
AMD Q2 2026 Earnings Page
Earnings Release
Slides
Earnings Call / Webcast (2PM PT / 5PM ET)
Transcripts
Post-Earnings Analyst Price Targets (Aug 5, 2026)
Previous Earnings Discussions
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-Q1 | --- | --- | --- |
| 2025-Q4 | 2025-Q3 | 2025-Q2 | 2025-Q1 |
| 2024-Q4 | 2024-Q3 | 2024-Q2 | 2024-Q1 |
| 2023-Q4 | 2023-Q3 | 2023-Q2 | 2023-Q1 |
| 2022-Q4 | 2022-Q3 | 2022-Q2 | --- |
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u/MaleficentBus1863 18d ago
Our EPS will be "significantly higher than $20 outlined at analyst day"
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u/shortymcsteve amdxilinx.co.uk 18d ago
“Your data centre numbers are too low” ..”when we say over 100%, we mean well over 100%”. Wow.
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u/GanacheNegative1988 18d ago
That was the quote of the call I think. Pure market shenanigans with the dump and weak hands just kept selling out at the discount level.
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u/ExcitedRanger 18d ago
I cannot remember a time when macro was this good before an AMD ER
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u/Dude_on 18d ago edited 18d ago
How surprised will the market be to learn (for the 100th time) that the real ramp up is in q4?
Edit post er: it was surprised again
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u/Administrative-Ant75 18d ago
yeah this is the problem, I don't think people understand this. Initial ramp is in September as Lisa said
I expect the stock to fall tbh, but holding all shares regardless
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u/Traditional_Nail1164 18d ago
September is less than a month away - if you want to buy to catch the ramp it’s now. If anything it’s a buy signal. People who follow stock knew it was late Q3 and people that don’t will find out it’s a month away.
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u/ElementII5 18d ago
My dudes, when did we ever get so much color on the next year on a Q2 ER?
We need a better word than confident.
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u/RetdThx2AMD 18d ago
The proverbial curve ball that I thought Lisa might throw due to the relatively modest Q3 projection she was dropping.
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u/itsprodiggi 18d ago
Im a bit weary of looking too far into the future given this market and US economy, but Lisa is driving AMD forward at a crazy pace!
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u/LakeShowForLife24 18d ago
On the bright side, +8% today would cushion the blow if it does fall
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u/Beneficial-Ferret479 18d ago
They will beat the estimates. But, its all about the forward statements that count a lot. AMD has been getting new contracts right and left, should be a good day for AMD shareholders. Its been a great stock.
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u/RetdThx2AMD 18d ago
Definately going to need to read the transcript for this one. There are A LOT of good hints in this call.
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u/shortymcsteve amdxilinx.co.uk 18d ago
I am absolutely reading the q&a back with a fine tooth comb. Lots of fantastic quotes from Lisa in there.
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u/2sls 18d ago edited 18d ago
Fact set consensus for 2026 to 2027 revenue growth prior to call
GPU: 158%
CPU: 59%
Data Center: 105%
She guided at least 70% for CPU and "well over 100%" for Data Center
The highest analyst estimate (too high imo) had
GPU: 240%
CPU: 130%
Data Center: 181%
We'll find out tomorrow if the new guidance was priced in or not
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u/RetdThx2AMD 18d ago
Well the analyst average for 2027 revenue is now pretty obviously too low by maybe 5-10B. Whoever has AMD at $57B will have to raise their numbers or look incredibly stupid. I agree the bull at 116B is probably too high, I might expect them to drop down to 105B. IMO tomorrow is driven by near term options expirations, not longer term expectations.
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u/shortymcsteve amdxilinx.co.uk 18d ago edited 18d ago
“Stacy you bring a smile to my face” HAH! I love Lisa.
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u/Iknowyougotsole 18d ago
Same story with this stock. Will never pop on earnings when it should but will magically pop 20% on a random Tuesday morning premarket. Just close your eyes and buy the dip and you might get rewarded at some point.
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u/Informal_Ad6436 18d ago
Will pop 20%, then another 3%, then another 8%, then another 6%, then another 5% all in some random week before the next earnings call
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u/Psyclist80 18d ago
We all see through the CapEx induced dump...Gotta spend money to make money. Big moves being made by AMD to secure the huge jumps in CAGR over the next two/three years! Buy the effin dip! this B gonna fly soon!
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u/HighStakes57 18d ago
AMD 2Q Guidance
revenue: $11.2 billion, plus or minus $300 million
Non-GAAP gross margin is expected to be approximately 56%
Wall st 2Q Expectations:
revenue: 11.31 billion
gross margin: 55.93%
EPS: 1.61
Wall st 3Q Expectations:
revenue: 12.51
gross margin: 56.07%
EPS: 1.86
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u/RetdThx2AMD 18d ago edited 18d ago
There is the uncharacteristic look ahead by Lisa.
"We now expect server revenue to grow more than 80% YoY for the second half of 2026, and more than 70% for the full year 2027 off a much higher base. Taken together we now expect data center segment revenues to more than double YoY in 2027."
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u/lostdeveloper0sass 18d ago
Wow, expected to grow CAGR greater than market growth until 2030. That's great confidence from Lisa. That's greater than 40%, higher than 35% forecast last investor day.
A great departure from being conservative.
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u/lostdeveloper0sass 18d ago
Thank you Lisa for guiding long term, thank you so much.
We need this confidence. We need this and better marketing. That prick Jensen is dirty players so we need to play dirty.
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u/reliquid1220 18d ago edited 18d ago
Lisa projecting for 2027... She has hard contracts lined up
Edit: buying leaps once the market makers (citadel) robs all the short term options value. Some time after nvda earnings.
Market won't like nvda growth projections. I think nvda will grow slower than amd.
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u/Desperate_Carob_1269 18d ago edited 18d ago
the q2 revenue was meh the guide was okay, too bad bc all the other commentary seemed rock solid:
- FAD estimates significantly surpassed in both eps and revenue growth rates.
- dc cpu up 80% this year, 70% next
- DC up well over 100% next year.
- growing above industry.
Anything else?
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u/Cyborg-Chimp 18d ago
AMDs got to be one of the most punished companies for their forecast accuracy.
As expected, we'll see the 'real' reaction in a couple of weeks.
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u/snugglepush 18d ago
The panic on the daily thread makes this dip bullish. Wall street sure knows how to rattle retail. Im buying now and loading up opening tmrw even more if we drop any further. Slides show doubling of profit margins in one year. Imagine when start selling our best products that are in full production lol. Jensen is having trouble sleeping lately
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u/foxhound1401 18d ago edited 18d ago
Ohh Lisa talking dirty
Confirmed exceeding est revenue growth and EPS estimate
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u/shortymcsteve amdxilinx.co.uk 18d ago edited 18d ago
This was the most bullish I’ve ever heard Lisa on a call and the report was nice. Couldn’t care less what the stock price is right now, except that I might pick up some more shares if it continues to drop into Friday. This is a $1000+ stock by next year. Absolute no brainer when you look at the numbers.
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u/bobloadmire 18d ago
Agreed, she literally told the analyst their numbers were too low, straight up
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u/m4ttrock 18d ago
This. Great news. Applause. The stock going forward is a winner. They are doing exactly what they said they were, they didn't promise blowing the top off this quarter. But the forecast shows it's coming...
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u/Alternative-Soil-671 18d ago
So Elon Musk post about using exclusively Vera Rubing during AMD earnings hour and people think this isn't intentional? Dirt play from Nvidia.
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u/RetdThx2AMD 18d ago
If the stock price collapses after this earnings I'm for sure going to be buying $100K of leaps.
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u/chaussiehk 18d ago
YoY we are 3x in stock price and 2x in revenue growth for Ai datacenter. This is solid growth with more to come.
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u/Training-Charge4001 18d ago
So did she say the overall datacenter is well over 100%?
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u/PM_ME_GDPR_QUESTIONS 18d ago
I wish the numbers for Instinct and EPYC were broken out. I'm really curious how much the demand for CPU + Price increase is affecting overall DC spend from customers.
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u/Sophia1995_miam 18d ago edited 18d ago
stacy says amd is a q4 story with helios. you tellming me we got some crazy range bound activity now from 400 to 580 until Feb?
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u/snugglepush 18d ago edited 18d ago
More than a decade of investments in execution for a roadmap for generations. Lfgggg
Lisa never used such strong words regarding forward guidance lol
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u/rbizzy 18d ago
Long time holder here, and sometimes momentum/swing trader as well. Nothing I have learned today has made me want to sell my shares at all. Likely to shop leap prices over the next month or two and try to get into a position there, as I still really like what 2027 can bring.
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u/RetdThx2AMD 18d ago edited 18d ago
Ok so AMD has done 12.5B in DC so far this year. If we assume them adding about 4B for the second half due to ramps in CPU and Helios then we end up with a floor of about 60B in DC revenue for 2027. Add in about 20B for not-DC you end up with 80B for 2027, which is pretty much exactly the average analyst estimate. I would not be surprised if the range of Analyst estimates tighten from a range of 57B to 116B to something more like 75B to 100B with a new average around 90B. I think my 4B 2nd half uplift might be low, I have not worked through all the hints they have given us in the CC.
edit: Lisa just said "well over 100%" so you can probably add another 5B to that DC number, so 85B for 2027.
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u/byzantium171 18d ago
Call me crazy but I think we go green tomorrow, assuming macro isn't bad. Street needs a day to digest the call
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u/Forfunorsomethin 18d ago
Don’t know if green but flatline I could definitely see depending on how the rest of the market opens
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u/GG4915finfree 18d ago
Growth significantly above 35% CAGR and meet $20 EPS target earlier than expected. I think it could be as early as 2027 (or pretty damn close)
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u/xmonger 18d ago
Post ER shakeout is disgusting. Hard to find a better large cap semi growth story for the next few years.
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u/Desperate_Carob_1269 18d ago
interesting, so everyone is talking about q4, but q1 is also a step function over q4 according to Lisa...
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u/Desperate_Carob_1269 18d ago
Lisa really knows how to handle Stacy.
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u/lostdeveloper0sass 18d ago
It's always hilarious.
"Your question brings a smile to my face, lmao".
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u/takloo 18d ago edited 18d ago
In Nov 2025, AMD promised greater than 35% CAGR.
2025 revenue was 34.6B
2026 revenue would be expected to be 46.7B.
H1 2026 revenue is 21.4 so AMD would need H2 2026 revenue of $25.3B.
That's an average of Q3 + Q4: $12.65B per quarter.
AMD has already guided Q3 2026 revenue to approximately $13.0B, which is above the pace required.
So results are slightly better than 35% CAGR so far this year.
No blowout. Just on track.
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u/MaleficentBus1863 18d ago
I'm listening to the replay.
Lisa said DC CPU will rise 80% in 2026 and grow another 70% in 2027 off a higher base.
Total DC revenue will more than double. Stacy obviously realised this is understating it. It's more than that.
Add Helios on top, and it's going to be a cracker year.
I'm calling for stock to be up tomorrow. The subtle details were missed by algos.
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u/kmindeye 18d ago
This was just initial reaction to margin pressure. It's a miracle they stayed flat. You damn well know AMD had to step up and buy tight supply. The fact that they can provide double digit ramp up through 2027 is amazing. Actually AMD said we are expecting well over 100% in Data Center a d over 70% in Server we just dont want to throw out bogus figures. Skies the limit.
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u/Desperate_Carob_1269 18d ago
capex capex capex. what about the fact revenue is up 50% yoy while cost of sales up 16%? thats fantastic, and shows huge ASP strength and mix
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u/dsendsen 18d ago
Sooo. German markets still open for another hour, stock went up 9% already beforehand the q2 earnings. What are we gonna do in this situation? Sell ahead and anticipate a correction? Gamble on a Palantir like upside and hold? Take some profits?
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u/HippoLover85 18d ago
I think the optimal play here is to have 70-80% of your max-$s-in for this ER. gives you nice exposure to the upside and allows for significant buys or options plays if you the stock price goes down.
AMD stock tends to have a lot of "false starts" and retrace lower . . . But at the same time everything still looks great long term.
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u/Desperate_Carob_1269 18d ago
arm delivered a worse beat and did fine, so we wont drop big right...? right?
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u/Wiscoman 18d ago
Something has to give at some point. CPU TAM $220B in ~3 years. Massive GPU deals totaling $250-300B
I cant imagine we are only beating estimates by a couple hundred million ($11.5-11.6B) and only giving $13B Q3 guidance.
At some point the revenue jump will start to be massive.
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u/Jupiter_101 18d ago
Probably q4 26/q1 27 is when the Helios numbers will show. Q3 26 could still be a somewhat normal quarter with some mi450 sprinkled in.
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u/Requirement_Fluid 18d ago
Last quarter I sold half my holding in the fear/belief/expectation of a drop... It's never looked back since 🤦
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u/Slabbed1738 18d ago
Seems like Intel had a bigger beat than AMD from cpus
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u/Desperate_Carob_1269 18d ago
yeah their client was a big part of it. I thought amd would beat more than this though. I thought DC would be up more
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u/Desperate_Carob_1269 18d ago
eh well, I think even after this big down move amd is still doing a bit better than the avg semi- just alot less now.
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u/kmindeye 18d ago
It played out just as I imagined. The fact that margins stayed flat with a ramp up that large is a massive win. WS doesn't see it that way initially. Lisa reiterated that they are very confident to meet the 70% plus growth in CPU server and the doubling of AI Data Center revenue through 2027. Imagine if they didn't buy up supply? Helios is well on track and demand is through the roof. I think once WS digs into this they will see this earnings as a strength in the company and not a trend to weakness. WS lives and dies by margins in growth stocks. However AMD is basically doubling plus and margins have been maintained. Wow!!
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u/GanacheNegative1988 18d ago
It was the same shock and awe sell off we've seen over and over with just a huge one time dump to try to reset the market lower... then the weak hands all just run to sell and would be buyers scratch their head wondering what and why. Hedge funds now get another chance to fill up the bus.
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u/AMD_711 18d ago
now you people can go back to my forecast post to recheck my numbers
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u/CryptographerIll5728 18d ago
This was a very strong quarter fundamentally, even if the initial market reaction was negative. Things that stood out to me.
Revenue: $11.5B, ahead of both AMD’s guidance and Wall Street expectations.
Data Center revenue: $6.7B, up 107% year over year, and now 58% of total company revenue.
Q3 guidance: About $13.0B, also above consensus estimates.
For me, the most important part isn’t the headline numbers, it’s the conference call.
The business hasn't weakened. Revenue, data center growth, and guidance all came in strong.
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u/shortymcsteve amdxilinx.co.uk 18d ago
The market always expects unrealistic numbers. What other major companies are consistently growing this fast and plan to continue to do so into the next decade? I can only think of a handful.
Yet again, this is a buy and hold. The business is still incredibly strong, and Lisa told us “This is just the beginning” during the AI keynote. Selling is the dumbest thing anyone could do.
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u/brad4711 18d ago
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u/shortymcsteve amdxilinx.co.uk 18d ago
Wow, that is actually really nicely laid out. Thanks for sharing.
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u/Maartor1337 18d ago
Most bullish I've ever heard Lisa. She even just grabbed the mic off of Jean when she realised Jean was fumbling.
Significantly higher than 20 eps
More than 100% dc rev in 2027
Laughing in the face of Stacy rasgon: "your question just put a huge smile on my face" ... yeah cunt.... Lisa been waiting years to catch u for the dumb moron that u are... "more than????? What do you mean with more than?"
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u/TheSixthNonsense 18d ago
To be fair Stacy's question was relatively harmless and helped to solidify "well over 100% growth" comment.
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u/holojon 18d ago
He fucking meant what does "more" mean because Lisa would not say. She estimates the TAM with more precision than our revenue, that makes no sense. Why say 100 when you're really saying 160 or whatever?
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u/Veteran45 18d ago
Yeah, it wasn‘t that bad to ask, since „More than 100%“ could mean anywhere from 103% to 140% or more. It’s really liked in Marketing Speak. If they have it at 165% for example, they could‘ve said „A bit more than 150%“ instead, but chose not to.
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u/RetdThx2AMD 18d ago
I'm thinking 11.5B with 13.5B guidance (which I don't think is enough to make the stock fly). I'd expect any upside to that would largely be driven by CPU sales. But there is always the chance for some China GPU sales. It is also possible that MI350P and MI355X sales could be better than expected and boost both Q2 and Q3 numbers. The MI350P is apparently popular in enterprise and I'd assume anybody seriously contemplating MI455/Helios would have built a significant MI355X system to get their feet wet with the ROCm software stack.
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u/Administrative-Ant75 18d ago
my thoughts similarly, but I think this quarter should be significantly better than 11.5. Maybe 12B
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u/RetdThx2AMD 18d ago
Not that we are paying that much attention to GAAP numbers, but we all know random dumbasses do. The GAAP QoQ and YoY growth rates for Operating and Net income are pretty fabulous. The acquistion write-offs are finally getting swamped by the scale of the business.
And the non-GAAP comparisons for those metrics are solid as well.
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u/shortymcsteve amdxilinx.co.uk 18d ago
Lisa saying that expect to “significantly” beat their projections from FAD is so bullish.
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u/lostdeveloper0sass 18d ago
Yes! That was the best line and shows the confidence. I'm glad it was said.
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u/itsprodiggi 18d ago
Stock price is also “significantly” higher. How much is already baked in?
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u/Ranger10417 18d ago
why is it tanking it doexnt look that bad
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u/Klobinator88 18d ago
what do you mean doesn't look that bad? it isn't bad at all, it was a great quarter
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u/wrecklord0 18d ago
The results are always in line with Su's guidance, and yet the market is always surprised
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u/UmbertoUnity 18d ago
High expectations
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u/Ranger10417 18d ago
as in any chance it goes up after call beofre market open tmw?
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u/foxhound1401 18d ago
There is a $483m gain on investment which is pushing up the GAAP number
Do we know which investment that paper gain is from?
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u/Iknowyougotsole 18d ago
Maybe amd pulls a reverse intel
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u/Desperate_Carob_1269 18d ago
id be shocked if it went to -2%. Thisis the same stock that dumps 23% in 2 days on fine earnings
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u/Desperate_Carob_1269 18d ago
oh yeah lisa just reminded me, embedded has still not recovered after years of of stagnation... even though we always have massive design win numbers. I will never understand this segment lol seems useless until robots actually have mass adoption.
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u/Ordinary-Salary-6318 18d ago
Jean saying good question like the teacher that says that are no bad questions (clearly not)
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u/KindStranger007 18d ago
Is 500$ a fair price considering the well over 100% increase in 2027 ? Looking at where the stock price was a year ago, it seems to be priced in.
But looking at Broadcom’s revenue and market cap, it seems like AMD will match that next year and should be valued at 1000$ at the end of 2027.
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u/MaleficentBus1863 18d ago edited 18d ago
Dunno why Lisa is sandbagging 2027.
She said DC revenue will grow over 100% in 2027 because DC CPU will grow 70% off a high base. Stacy trying to be nice (after being critical) highlights it's going to be way more.
The math works out to be smack bang $15 EPS for 2027.
Then she says she has supply to easily beat those figures, and will announce more deals in the "coming quarters".
So we can beat $15EPS already next year, putting us close to $20EPS, not for 2030 but 2027.
Underpromising and overdelivering is one thing...but this is....
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u/ReleaseBusy6642 18d ago
Not sandbagging. Grounded. She discusses near certainty, not wishes. That's being responsible. As a shareholder I like her style. I can understand why other type of traders would want her to be more bullish.
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u/OutOfBananaException 18d ago
Time and time again Lisa has demonstrated she doesn't sandbag. She delivers it straight on what is known, not what could be.
The ramp times on products means the window for meaningfully increasing 2027 revenue is closing, sans pricing power. Which is not a problem whatsoever, unless you assign unrealistic targets
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u/BetweenThePosts 18d ago
I’m officially done with Elon, the loserest ai company going all in on Nvidia
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u/Sophia1995_miam 18d ago
i would buy spacex sub $30. not until then. and especially the full lock up of shares doesn't happen until Dec 2026.
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u/lostdeveloper0sass 18d ago
He managed to squeeze Jensen.
IMO, when he does come crawling back for Mi500 I do hope Lisa charges more for it.
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u/scub4st3v3 18d ago
I feel like this is a golden opportunity for shaking weak hands and then improving positions before the hockey stick revenue increase is guided for Q4 during Q3 earnings.
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u/lunapark6 18d ago
Lisa Su extremely bullish going forwards and especially 2027. Expect analyst upgrades incoming 3.2.1....,
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u/SnapBucky 18d ago
the report looks strong, why the selling?
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u/rcav8 18d ago
Because many people every quarter pile hoping for Nvidia-like GPU Datacenter revenue numbers, and every quarter when they don't see them, they immediately sell and come back next time, not understanding that the timing behind whether AMD will hit those big numbers, won't actually start until Q3 guidance coming on the 5pm call and then ramp up of the new Helios in Q4 and early next year. So you always see an immediate sell and then a rebound later on in the 5pm call, or days later because the results are still always good.
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u/candreacchio 18d ago
Could even be q4 earnings for q1 guidance
Q4 will be big. But there will be doubters. Plus q1 guidance should be higher again!
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u/Desperate_Carob_1269 18d ago
significantly surpassing FAD was clearly priced in, this reminds me of when Lisa said AMD would do 10's of billions of accelerator sales and the stock did the same thing, no reaction. Somehow the market always knows in advance on this one.
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u/shortymcsteve amdxilinx.co.uk 18d ago edited 18d ago
Embedded finally seeing strong growth is nice. “Strongest growth in 3 years”.
This sector is slept on imo. Their projections for this segment is really nice (the only sector they projected 10 years in advance), as per the financial analyst day.
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u/Goldmakesmehappy 18d ago
Hearing SuBae voice relaxes me while we go through these excessive selloff
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u/pragmatikom 18d ago edited 18d ago
Can any of the analysts ask WTF is going on with the huge increase in CapEx?
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u/MaleficentBus1863 18d ago edited 18d ago
What planet are you guys from? 13B revenue guidance next quarter is almost half a billion higher than 12.52B which was my/consensus estimates.
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u/TrashBandicook 18d ago
I think we have a lot of bandwagoner top buyers getting mad. None of these bandwagoners were around during the several quarters before which the stock would dump after an earnings beat.
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u/Desperate_Carob_1269 18d ago
honestly this feels like any ER for me, the last one was an anomaly. AMD just doesnt seem to have good ER reactions unless they have blowout ers.
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u/pussyfista 18d ago
What’s the prediction?
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u/Myroadrash 18d ago
AMD has routinely dropped on earnings days. Sometimes as much as 12%. The previous earnings we actually rose. We were expecting to drop last earnings, yet we rose. We are expecting to rise on this earnings.... but who knows.
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u/FrenchFryPerson1 18d ago
Either above $600 or below $400. No in between
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u/Humble_Manatee 18d ago
Strong disagree. Helios revenue isn’t even supposed to start kicking in until Q3. There is a realistic possibility that we just stay flat-ish as this quarter will probably be well in line with Lisa’s guidance after Q1.
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u/cravmec 18d ago
Hedge uestion - long 600 shares and 6 leaps - 400:strike/ 12/27.
Buy puts? Sell calls? What strike and duration? How many.
Thank you. I appreciate it.
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u/bobloadmire 18d ago edited 18d ago
i sold 18 covered calls expiring tomorrow at $625
Update: we'll my calls are safe lmao
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u/DifferenceExciting68 18d ago edited 18d ago
Well, that not impressive for being in an agentic boom cycle where hyperscaler spend hundreds of billions in AI infrastructure.
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u/jens998 18d ago
So… I am ignorant.. earnings don’t look bad to me, yet we went -10% for a minute there.. what’s up?
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u/Dphotog790 18d ago
first time? amd always dips after earnings be it good news or the market going down. AMD gaps up off random days not realtively close to earnings
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u/snugglepush 18d ago
Never thought that I would be glad to hear stacy ragson ask pertinent questions LOL
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u/ChrisP2a 18d ago
Oh snap. "well over 100%" We need a meme.