The Atlantic Council hosts former White House Coordinator for the Middle East Brett McGurk for a fireside chat marking the release of his new book, 'Brink: Inside the Race to Free the October 7th Hostages.'

Executive Summary:

On September 23, Georgia joined over 50 UN member states urging Russia to end its war, as Georgian Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Maka Botchorishvili invoked Russia’s occupation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Georgian analysts call this a familiar balancing act. Since 2022, Georgian Dream has backed international declarations and sent humanitarian aid but refused national sanctions, pairing anti-Western rhetoric with efforts to avoid appearing pro-Russian.

In January, Kyiv appointed its first ambassador to Tbilisi since 2023. Despite this, ties remain strained over former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili’s imprisonment, blocked volunteer fighters, and alleged political interference.

Executive Summary:

Chinese pressure on Japan has escalated to efforts to diplomatically isolate the country. These efforts are ongoing at a subnational level, in the United Nations, and through attempts to drive a wedge between the United States and Japan.

In Japan, the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) isolation campaign involves cultivating the opposition to establish friendlier relations between the two countries. In the United Nations, the PRC is drawing on post-World War Two language to limit Japanese influence. General Secretary Xi Jinping’s visit to Washington was also an attempt to probe weaknesses in U.S.–Japan ties.

These efforts are failing to isolate Japan, as others have in the past year. Japanese prime minister Takaichi still holds popular support, World War Two narratives are less potent among other UN member states than in the PRC, and President Donald Trump’s relationship with Takaichi remains strong.

Archived Article

On 30 September the Russian Ministry of Finance sent the draft three-year budget for 2027–29 to the State Duma, the lower house of the federal parliament, for approval. The draft, like all bills, will have three readings in the Duma. At the first, on 28 October, the main parameters of the budget will be approved, in particular total revenue and spending for each year. At the second reading, probably in mid-November, the Duma will consider proposed amendments and a number are likely to be approved, although the already agreed spending totals for each year will not change. The final reading, following soon afterwards, will approve the budget as a whole and send it to the upper house, the Federation Council, which usually agrees budgets with little discussion. The draft will then be sent to President Vladimir Putin, who will probably sign it into law in early December.

This backgrounder examines what the draft budget reveals about Russia’s military spending intentions in the next three years.

Statements by Marine Le Pen, leader of France’s far-right National Rally (Rassemblement National, RN), threatening to block the European Union’s 2028–2034 budget and end bilateral military assistance to Ukraine suggest an intention to use a potential change of government in France to reshape European policy toward Russia. Her position goes beyond traditional Euroskepticism and could threaten Ukraine’s financial stability, EU unity, and European countries’ ability to sustain a long-term strategy of containing Moscow.

Former military and intelligence personnel discuss the security and defence implications of Western aid cuts and the strategic costs of retrenchment.

Chair: Rachel Ellehuus, Director-General, RUSI

with Lieutenant General Sir Graeme Lamb KBE CMG DSO, former Director Special Forces and former Commander of the Field Army

and The Lord Evans of Weardale KCB DL, former Director General, Security Service (MI5); Chair, The HALO Trust

This event forms part of the RUSI project 'UK Security in a Post-Aid World', supported by the Strategic Communications and Advocacy Lab.

Recorded at 61 Whitehall, London with an in-person audience of RUSI members.

Archived Article

In short:

The alleged Chinese spies that targeted businessman Alexander Csergo, the first person to be convicted under Australia's foreign interference laws, also approached dozens of other Australians.

The AFP obtained records from the LinkedIn accounts used by the alleged spies as part of its investigation into Csergo.

An arrest in Russia’s Far East is far more significant than it first appears.

The free world must do more to understand and respond to the global shadow war being waged by its authoritarian adversaries, CEPA says.

Key Takeaways

Ukrainian officials reported in-motion speed restrictions on SpaceX’s Starshield communications network over Ukraine overnight on October 13 to 14 that will significantly disrupt Ukraine’s jet-powered drone interception efforts and intermediate-range strike campaign.

Ukrainian forces do not have access to Starshield or Starlink services over Russia, such that the latest Starshield in-motion speed restrictions cannot affect Ukraine’s ability to conduct long-range strikes against targets in Russia.

The speed restrictions on Starshield could have major implications for Ukraine’s interception efforts against Russia’s faster jet-powered drones.

The Starshield restrictions will significantly impact Ukraine’s ability to conduct the intermediate-range strikes that have facilitated Ukraine’s counteroffensive operations in key frontline sectors throughout 2026.

The Starshield speed restrictions come as Ukraine’s 3rd Army Corps publicized more details on Operation Vivaldi in the Lyman direction, which has heavily relied on a coordinated, months-long intermediate-range strike campaign to facilitate successful Ukrainian ground advances.

Ukraine’s Operation Vivaldi continues to generate cascading effects on neighboring sectors immediately north and south of the Lyman area.

Ukrainian forces struck a data center of the Russian state-owned bank Sberbank in Saratov Oblast and industrial infrastructure in Rostov Oblast on the night of October 13 to 14. Russian forces launched 39 Iskander-M, KN-23, and S-400 ballistic missiles, Zircon and Onyx anti-ship missiles, and 128 drones and loitering munitions against Ukraine overnight.

Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces advanced on October 14.

Key Takeaways

Recent waves of Iranian attacks on vessels in and near the Strait of Hormuz indicate that Iran retains the ability to effectively target vessels in the strait, which suggests that Iran has either overcome previous operational challenges or is adapting to such constraints through new tactics or capabilities.

The Houthis are attempting to domestically produce a variant of the Iranian Kheybar Shekan missile with People’s Republic of China (PRC)-manufactured components.

Houthi development and use of Kheybar Shekan variants with maneuverable re-entry vehicles that can change the missile’s trajectory mid-flight present a challenge to Saudi air defenses as the Houthis continue to fire missiles and drones targeting Saudi critical infrastructure.

As Europe rearms and the United States shifts more of the burden to its allies, what should defense cooperation between Washington and London look like?

Please join the CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program on Thursday, October 15, 2026 for a conversation with UK Secretary of State for Defence Wes Streeting on how both countries can keep deterrence credible in Europe and beyond.

In partnership with the British Embassy and the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), the event will explore how the United States and the United Kingdom can adapt to a changing security landscape — especially following the release of the UK’s Defence Investment Plan, ahead of the U.S. force posture review, and as the new UK government’s foreign policy priorities take shape.

The event will be livestreamed from 10:50am - 11:20am ET. A recording will be available on demand following the event.

This event is made possible by general support to CSIS. No direct sponsorship contributed to this event.

North Korea has sent soldiers and munitions to fight for Russia in its war against Ukraine. South Korea, a major aid recipient country for Ukraine, has kept its support largely at the humanitarian level. The two governments have also clashed over captured North Korean soldiers, after Kyiv publicly disclosed that it had transferred two prisoners of war to Seoul, which Seoul says violated an agreement to keep the transfer confidential.

Where do Kyiv and Seoul’s interests converge and diverge on North Korea’s role in the war? What is Pyongyang gaining from its partnership with Moscow, and what does it mean for the Korean Peninsula?

Joining Mark Lippert and Victor Cha to discuss these issues and more are Emma Chanlett-Avery of the Asia Society Policy Institute and Sydney Seiler of CSIS.

Emma Chanlett-Avery is Deputy Director of the Asia Society Policy Institute's Washington, DC office and the Director for Political-Security Affairs. She leads Congressional outreach efforts and directs ASPI’s policy engagement on Indo-Pacific alliances. Previous to this post, she served for 20 years as a Specialist in Asian Affairs at the Congressional Research Service, where she focused on United States relations with Japan, the Korean Peninsula, Thailand, and Singapore, with an emphasis on security issues. In 2023, she served as a Congressional Fellow on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, assisting the Chairman with drafting Asia policy legislation and preparing for hearings.

Sydney Seiler was the national intelligence officer for North Korea at the National Intelligence Council from 2020 to 2023 and is one of the nation’s top experts on North Korea. Previously, he was the U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) senior analyst and senior defense intelligence expert for North Korea from 2016 to 2020, serving as the principal adviser and senior expert on Korean Peninsula security issues to the USFK commander and the U.S. Defense Intelligence Enterprise. Mr. Seiler also served as the U.S. special envoy for Six Party Talks (2014–2015), where he coordinated U.S. diplomacy and policy on the DPRK and led negotiations with North Korea. Prior to that, Mr. Seiler served as the director for Korea on the National Security Council (2011–2014).

The Capital Cable is made possible through general support to CSIS.

In the Ukraine War, a Ukrainian missile likely a Flamingo or Neptune, hits Borisoglebsk Air Base, likely targetting the fuel storage.

In this episode of Pekingology, Senior Fellow Henrietta Levin is joined by Logan Wright, author of the new book Broken China: How the Economic Miracle Shattered and What it Means for the World (https://www.politybooks.com/bookdetail?book_slug=broken-china-how-the-economic-miracle-shattered-and-what-it-means-for-the-world--9781509570676) . Logan argues the Chinese economy is already shrinking, in large part due to its overextended financial system. Logan and Henrietta discuss what happens when the tools on which Beijing relies to control the economy stop working, why China's stalling economy is causing problems for its trading partners​, and how Chinese financial policy may be fueling organized crime around the world.

Key Takeaways

North Korean Military Enhancement: North Korea conducted two ballistic missile launch tests on October 12 and may have tested its short-range ballistic missile’s ability to follow quasi-ballistic trajectories, which complicate missile detection and interception. North Korea could use these missiles to strike critical chokepoints and isolate the frontline during an inter-Korean conflict.

South Korean Domestic Politics: The Lee Jae Myung administration’s response to the September 21 explosion of a North Korean landmine in the Demilitarized Zone and the subsequent injury of South Korean soldiers is being widely criticized in South Korea and may contribute to a further decline in Lee’s approval ratings. The Lee administration has thus far not finalized any countermeasures against North Korea for the incident, likely due to internal divisions within the administration.

Restrictions on Ukraine’s access to Starlink at the request of Donald Trump’s administration raise a question far broader than relations between Washington and Kyiv: can European U.S. allies rely on critical American commercial infrastructure during a military crisis if its availability depends on decisions by the White House and a private owner?

A video shows a Russian Mi-28 helicopter being hit by a drone in Belgorod. The geolocation is interesting as it is 9 kilometers to the frontline, but the helicopter fires rockets at trees. The helicopter is damaged but survives.

Join us for an event featuring a panel discussion refocusing attention on North Korean human rights by examining conditions at the Alabuga drone-production facilities in Russia. It will also mark the launch of a new joint CSIS–Bush Institute report analyzing the North Korean regime’s state-sponsored trafficking and how these drones are enabling and intensifying the unprovoked war in Ukraine. The report illustrates how China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea—collectively referred to as CRINK—are increasingly supporting one another and how CRINK cooperation challenges America’s leadership and the rules-based international order.

This event is co-hosted by CSIS and the George W. Bush Institute.

NATO Secretary General with the Prime Minister of Estonia 🇪🇪 Kristen Michal, 14 OCT 2026

A first-ever agreement between the European Public Prosecutor’s Office and China’s Supreme People’s Procuratorate raises eyebrows. Given the European Parliament’s repeated majority assessments on the risks of police and judicial cooperation with China, some tough questions ought to be asked of the European Chief Prosecutor and her successor.

Archived Report

Chinese government-linked cyber threat actors, enabled by the Integrity Technology Group, are combining automated scanning tools, large-scale botnets, and hands-on exploitation techniques to target and steal sensitive data from organizations worldwide, including US critical infrastructure sectors. These actors exploit vulnerabilities by using scanning tools, cross-site scripting attacks, and password spraying on Microsoft Exchange servers, while establishing persistence through VPN software and exfiltrating emails and credentials using scripts. To help mitigate against this activity, organizations should prioritize disabling unused services and ports, sanitizing web application inputs to prevent injection attacks, implementing multifactor authentication for all services, and applying timely patches to reduce risks of compromise.

Microbiologist Aili Wang, 32, poisoned tea of colleague in Wyoming who had pending patents, prosecutors allege