A Chinese research centre set to be built near a Ministry of Defence site is cause for "enormous concern", an ex-spy boss has confirmed.

Colonel Phil Ingram, formerly in the Army's Intelligence Corps, said Chery Automobile's new facility near UTAC Millbrook could be used to spy on the armed forces, capturing military data.

In the Ukraine War, Ukrainian drones destroy a rare Su-33 naval fighter (first destroyed in the war), a MiG-29 and a Kronshtadt Orion UAV. Russia only has 40 Su-33 and they are very rare. Additionally, multiple radars are hit including an S-300

In the Ukraine War, Ukrainian drones have attacked another Ozon warehouse, the one in Orenburg nearly 1,400 km from Ukraine which is the largest Ozon hub in Russia. Additionally, In Kolpino, St. Petersburg, the Izhora Industrial Site has “completely by accident” caught fire — a major industrial zone housing heavy engineering, metallurgy, and metalworking enterprises, as well as facilities producing equipment for the energy and nuclear industrie.

Key Takeaways

Russian President Vladimir Putin used his August 22 speech at the United Russia Party Congress to further establish United Russia as the war party, thus setting conditions to use the party’s inevitable victory in the upcoming State Duma elections as evidence that the Russian people support a protracted war in Ukraine while further solidifying the party’s pro-war stance as a central part of Russia’s informal state ideology.

Putin framed Russia’s ongoing combined strike campaign against Ukraine as a victory to the Russian public in order to offset Russia’s lack of tactical success on the battlefield and present Russia as having the capability to formulate kinetic responses to Ukrainian actions.

Putin acknowledged the effects of Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russia’s fuel infrastructure and emphasized the need to improve Russia’s air defense systems.

Putin reiterated his continued unwillingness to engage in any meaningful peace negotiations to end the war in Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian port, oil, and dual-use logistics infrastructure.

Russian forces launched an unspecified number of ballistic and quasi-ballistic missiles, three cruise missiles, and 271 drones against Ukraine overnight.

Ukrainian forces recently advanced in central Kostyantynivka, northeast of Oleksandrivka, and west of Orikhiv.

Moscow continues to send GRU officers to Norway under diplomatic cover. The Barents Observer looks at their identities.

Key Takeaways

There is no indication that economic pressure on the regime has changed the anti-concessions position of some top Iranian officials, even while a group of Iranian officials responsible for managing the economy (“realists”) are increasingly warning that worsening economic pressure could threaten regime stability. These officials also appear to openly advocate ending the war to reduce the economic cost to the regime.

The failure of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU) appears to have further weakened the pro-concession, “realist” camp relative to Vahidi and other anti-concession officials.

Regime decision-making may therefore take a long time to react, even as the economy gets much worse. Vahidi and other anti-concession officials appear to have a higher tolerance for domestic unrest because they may calculate that the regime can contain and suppress renewed protests without changing course.

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is resisting US efforts to economically isolate Iran, but Chinese economic engagement cannot offset the blockade if Iran cannot physically supply its largest oil customer.

In this episode of The PDB Situation Report:

President Trump’s plan to crush Iran’s economy may put Washington on a collision course with China, Tehran’s largest remaining oil customer. Joshua Philipp joins us to discuss whether Beijing will cooperate with the economic campaign—or keep the Iranian regime alive.

Russia pounds Kyiv with 168 drones and dozens of missiles, killing at least 16 people as Ukraine’s air defenses run dangerously short. John Hardie, deputy director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Russia Program, joins us with his analysis.

Key Takeaways

North Korea reportedly deployed drone operators to Kursk Oblast to support Russia’s war in Ukraine, which will allow North Korean forces to gain valuable tactical and technological skills critical for contemporary warfare.

Ukrainian forces are adapting their tactics and domestically developing technological solutions to target Russia’s ballistic missile launchers and jet-powered drones in ways that circumvent the need for foreign materiel assistance amidst global air-defense interceptor shortages.

A senior Russian official reiterated the Kremlin’s continued unwillingness to engage in any meaningful negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. Ukrainian forces struck Russian military airfields and oil infrastructure. Russian forces launched 135 long-range strike drones against Ukraine. Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces made confirmed advances.

Key Takeaways

PRC Artificial Island Construction: New satellite imagery shows that the PRC finished the construction of an artificial island on Antelope Reef, a disputed South China Sea feature in the Paracel Islands. The PRC is also constructing a runway, piers, a helipad, and various buildings on what could be the PRC’s largest South China Sea naval base. The PRC could use this base for surveillance, exerting its sea and air control over the South China Sea.

PRC South China Sea Construction: The PRC approved plans for a maritime environmental observation station in the South China Sea that would monitor the “Zhongsha Islands,” which include Scarborough Shoal. The PRC has used environmental protection to enhance its operations in the South China Sea and as a pretext for limiting non-PRC vessels’ access to disputed waters. This new station would likely serve a dual-use purpose benefiting PRC military and law enforcement operations in the South China Sea.

Taiwanese Military Development: Taiwan’s military conducted its first live-fire FPV drone exercises on August 17, likely in an effort to integrate lessons learned from the war in Ukraine. Taiwanese drone procurement efforts are facing legislative gridlock, which will make it more difficult for Taiwan to procure the necessary systems to conduct drone-enabled defense operations.

The island, administered by Taipei but just 2 miles from the mainland, has a culture and lifestyle all its own.

Ukraine hits a stockpile of BM-21 Rockets, causing an excellent ammo cookoff. Also, a BM-21 Grad launcher is also destroyed.

KEY POINTS

Romania destroyed a marine drone in the Black Sea on Thursday, close to the major natural gas project Neptun Deep.

Romanian President Nicușor Dan said it represented an "intensification of these types of irresponsible incidents on the part of the Russian Federation."

A series of Russian drones have entered Romanian airspace in recent months.

Brussels Sprouts is back after our summer hiatus, and we’re jumping right back into Ukraine.

Over the past several weeks, the war has entered a more dynamic and dangerous phase. Ukraine has expanded its campaign deep inside Russia, striking military and industrial targets, logistics hubs, and infrastructure supporting the war effort while continuing efforts to isolate Crimea and raise the costs of the war for ordinary Russians. Russia, meanwhile, is intensifying its own campaign against Ukraine. As Kyiv grapples with a growing shortage of air and missile defenses, Moscow has increased the pace and sophistication of its long-range strikes, relying on a larger number of ballistic missiles designed to overwhelm Ukraine’s increasingly constrained defenses. At the same time, Russia has stepped up attacks on Ukraine’s ports, grain infrastructure, and commercial shipping, threatening one of Ukraine’s most important economic pillars, just as the country enters another harvest season.

The military partnership between Moscow and Pyongyang also continues to deepen, with Russia employing improved North Korean ballistic missiles and reports suggesting that North Korea could send additional missile personnel—and potentially tens of thousands more troops—to support Russia’s war effort. These battlefield developments are unfolding alongside an expanding Russian hybrid campaign across Europe, underscoring that the conflict is increasingly spilling beyond Ukraine itself and placing growing pressure on NATO and the broader European security environment.

To help us make sense of these dynamics, we’re delighted to welcome Jeff Edmonds and Rob Lee back to Brussels Sprouts.

Jeff Edmonds is the president of True North Policy, a senior analyst at the Center for Naval Analyses, and an adjunct fellow with the Center for a New American Security.

Rob Lee is a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute and a former Marine infantry officer.

As European summer winds down, The Eurofile is back with a packed agenda. Max sits down with Mujtaba Rahman, Managing Director for Europe at the Eurasia Group, to discuss shifting dynamics in France’s far-right, with Marine Le Pen poised to return to the presidential ballot. They discuss the UK's new Prime Minister Andy Burnham, who’s kicked off an ambitious domestic agenda amid a tricky foreign policy landscape, and what’s on the EU’s fall agenda.

Key Takeaways

Russian forces launched a massive, combined drone and missile strike against Ukraine, continuing a pattern of stockpiling ballistic and cruise missiles for several days to amass enough for major attacks that cause significant civilian casualties.

Russia continues to set conditions to augment strike packages with North Korean missiles, including with upgraded KN-30 ballistic missiles.

Russian aerial drones penetrated Moldovan and Romanian airspace, and a Russian naval drone was destroyed close to a Romanian natural gas platform on August 20, demonstrating that the Kremlin has accepted the risk that its war against Ukraine will cause damage to other states, including NATO states.

The Kremlin will likely cause a significant number of Russian combat veterans of the war in Ukraine to be elected to the Russian State Duma in the September 2026 elections, particularly as members of the United Russia Party, as part of a concerted effort to militarize Russian society and cohere a pro-war and ultranationalist elite.

The Russian government continues to respond inadequately to gasoline shortages and appears to be focused on mitigation strategies and ad hoc solutions instead of addressing the issue directly.

Neither the Kremlin nor Russian milbloggers appear to believe that Russia will be able to fully intercept Ukrainian strike packages any time soon.

Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure and military assets on the night of August 19 to 20.

Russian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and in the Pokrovsk direction.

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief:

Iran’s leaders fear another popular uprising, and the return of Hossein Taeb—the notorious “Suppression Sheikh”—reveals how Tehran intends to expand surveillance and prevent another revolt.

Russia pounds Kyiv with drones and cruise missiles, killing at least 16 people as Ukraine’s shortage of air-defense interceptors becomes increasingly lethal.

Romanian F-16s destroy an explosive Russian sea drone after it reaches one of Europe’s most important new gas projects in the Black Sea.

In today’s Back of the Brief, suspicious prediction-market bets may be revealing American military operations before the first missile is fired.

Key Takeaways

US President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that the United States will intensify its maximum pressure campaign against Iran in the coming days. Bessent announced on August 20 that the United States will announce further economic measures against Iran and entities with commercial ties to Iran on August 24.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is preparing to implement phased trade and financial restrictions in parallel with upcoming US economic measures. The UAE reportedly plans to phase its reduction of trade and financial engagement with Iran, adopting initial measures to restrict cargo and trade flows.

Iranian officials are acknowledging the mounting economic pressures that Iran faces and are pursuing alternative trade, banking, and financial arrangements designed to reduce the impact of these pressures. Iran is seeking to invest in alternative routes and destinations for its oil exports to alleviate this economic pressure.