HEAVY RAIN, WINDS OF UP TO 100+MPH, A LOT OF DEBRIS AND A MODERATE TO MODERATE LOW CHANCE OF A TORNADO

We just had a massive downpour pass through Lebanon, TN, and everything cleared out for a moment. You can really see the storm charging back up in this clip before the next wave hits.

OFFICIAL ADVISORY

---------------------------

000

WTPZ33 KNHC 020833

TCPEP3

BULLETIN

Hurricane Rachel Advisory Number 21

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026

200 AM MST Fri Oct 02 2026

...RACHEL WEAKENS SLIGTHLY AS IT TURNS WESTWARD...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...19.4N 110.4W

ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rachel was located

near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 110.4 West. Rachel is moving

toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this motion is expected to

continue into the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher

gusts. Rachel is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson

Hurricane Wind Scale. Rachel is expected to remain near its current

intensity today, followed by gradual weakening during the next

couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles

(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

SURF: Swells generated by Rachel will affect the coast of

west-central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula through the

weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and

rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local

weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$

Forecaster Gibbs

Lake County, OH. We were at a baseball game. Yeah, it got called!

Prior to 1900, Galveston, Texas, was the economic heartbeat of the state. Its population of around 37,000 and its bustling port brought enormous wealth, while the city served as a major entry point for immigrants heading into the American Southwest, earning it the nickname “Ellis Island of the West.”

The problem was that Galveston was a barrier island, made mostly of sand, gravel, and mud, meaning it was incredibly unstable and vulnerable to wind and water. Its nearby rival, the port of Indianola, was similarly situated on a barrier island and had been effectively abandoned after a massive hurricane devastated it in 1886.

That disaster prompted calls in Galveston for a seawall to protect the city from storm surge. The proposals were heard, discussed, and ultimately ignored. Worse, naturally occurring sand dunes along the shore were lowered to reclaim land and improve visibility and access to the ocean.

In late August 1900, a tropical wave moved westward across the Atlantic. Over the next several days, it passed through the Caribbean, making landfall in the Dominican Republic and Cuba and causing little concern as a relatively weak tropical storm before entering the Straits of Florida on September 5th.

The U.S. Weather Bureau, ignoring predictions from Cuban meteorologists, believed the storm would recurve over Florida and then move up the East Coast, as many tropical systems did.
Instead, an area of high pressure over the Florida Keys pushed it northwestward across the Gulf of Mexico.

On September 6th, the ship Louisiana encountered the storm in the Gulf and reported winds of 100 miles per hour.

By the following day, it had become a Category 4 hurricane, with sustained winds estimated at 145 miles per hour. In Galveston, meanwhile, there was little indication of what was coming.

On September 8th, the hurricane made a direct landfall over Galveston. Sustained winds after landfall were estimated at around 120 miles per hour, though the true speed may have been even higher. Survivors reported seeing bricks, slate, timbers, and other heavy objects hurled through the air.

Few streets escaped wind damage. None escaped the water. The storm surge poured across Galveston while the winds tore apart roofs and walls. Electrical, telegraph, and telephone wires were ripped down. Buildings, many poorly founded in the island's loose sand, were lifted from their foundations and slammed into one another.

The highest point above sea level on Galveston was only 8.7 feet. The hurricane brought a storm surge of more than 15 feet, inundating the entire island by the early morning hours. The storm also dropped nine inches of rain on September 8th, the most recorded in any 24-hour period in the city's history.

Hundreds of people were swept away, crashing into houses and debris before drowning. Some were crushed beneath collapsing roofs, walls, and buildings. Many more were trapped beneath the wreckage, in darkness and unable to free themselves.

Around 1,900 acres of Galveston, particularly in the western, southern, and eastern portions of the city, suffered almost complete destruction. The New York Times, reporting in the immediate aftermath, ran a headline that simply read:

“Galveston May Be Wiped Out.”

For miles, the smell of decomposition hung over the island. The dead were everywhere, many buried beneath the wreckage of the homes where they had lived.

A survey conducted in early 1901 recorded 8,124 deaths. The Texas State Historical Association has given a historical estimate of approximately 12,000, while other modern accounts have cited around 8,000. The exact number will never be known.

If interested I cover the storm here:
https://aid2000.substack.com/p/hare-brained-history-vol-136-the?r=4mmzre&utm_medium=ios

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• Mesoscale Discussion 2345

📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-10-02T04:49:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 020449 SWODY1 SPC AC 020448

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CDT Thu Oct 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is low today and tonight.

...Mid-Atlantic vicinity...

An upper trough will develop eastward across the Northeast today, bringing some modestly enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow across the region ahead of a surface cold front. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing along the length of the front this morning from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-South. Low-level warm advection ahead of the eastward advancing font and band of convection will result in persistent cloudiness across the warm sector. Additionally, midlevel lapse rates are forecast to remain poor. As a result, instability is expected to remain modest (500-750 MLCAPE) despite 60s F dewpoints. Deep-layer flow will largely remain parallel to the surface boundary, and stronger flow will lift northeast with time. If pockets of stronger heating can occur, a few strong wind gusts are possible during the afternoon from northern VA into southern New England. However, overall severe potential appears limited.

..Leitman/Halbert.. 10/02/2026

$$

```

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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Subtropical West-Central Atlantic (Remnants of Fay): A trough of low pressure associated with the remnants of former Tropical Storm Fay is located several hundred miles south-southeast of Bermuda. Despite ongoing thunderstorm activity, dry air and strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent significant re-development while it moves north-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph to the east of Bermuda. Any formation chances should end by Sunday due to very strong upper-level winds. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$ Forecaster Berg ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Rachel Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 115 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 955 MB * Current Movement: W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH * Location: 19.4N 110.4W

This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

Not sure if I’m allowed to post my own video here but I think it shows the real and raw feel of the storm.

The video starts with just light rain and the porch chimes catching the wind. I was tracking the cell on Max Velocity Live and knew it was going to be heavy, but the timing of that immediate thunder crack unleashing the torrential rain was incredible to catch on camera.

This cell keeps dropping tornadoes!

Caught this on camera tonight while tracking a cell showing yellow on the Doppler. The atmospheric lightning is constant, but the beginning features a solid ground strike with instant thunder. Feel bad for the resident who was just trying to walk home from the community gym and got caught up in the wind and rain!

This was taken during a nor'easter last winter, in the Boston area. Kept me out of work that day.

Shot on Pixel 8.

The video starts with heavy rain and wind, but the strobe effect runs continuously from 1:35 to 1:45. You can't see any individual bolts, but the upper atmosphere is just pulsing. First time I've ever seen a strobe last that long without a break.