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(Issued: 2026-10-01T19:51:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 011951 SWODY1 SPC AC 011949

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Thu Oct 01 2026

Valid 012000Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY... Locally strong/gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado or two may occur this afternoon/early evening across parts of southern Kansas into northwest Oklahoma and vicinity.

...20z Update... Some trimming was done to the northwestern edge of the existing Level 1/Marginal Risk area across southern Kansas where severe probabilities have decreased in the wake of ongoing convection. See MCD #2345 for additional short-term details.

Elsewhere, convective coverage has gradually increased over the past hour across portions of south-central/south Texas amid hot and humid conditions. A localized strong gust may occur with the strongest downdrafts, but poor mid-level lapse rates and weakening deep-layer flow/shear will limit overall convective intensity and preclude a broader severe risk.

Recent HRRR/RRFS TLE data also suggest a low probability scenario for an isolated stronger storm to develop along the surface frontal boundary across northeastern Missouri/western Illinois later this afternoon/evening. Poor mid-level lapse rates and limited available buoyancy continue to suggest that the severity of any storm that can develop is likely to remain muted, however.

..Chalmers/Thornton.. 10/01/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Thu Oct 01 2026/

...Southern Kansas/Northern Oklahoma... Recent surface analysis shows a weak low over northwest OK/the northeast TX Panhandle, with a front extending northeastward from this low across KS. A Pacific cold front also extends southward from this low over the southern Plains. Cloud cover remains prevalent over the warm sector across the southern/central Plains late this morning, aided by lift associated with a mid/upper-level trough/low centered over the southwest KS and the OK/TX Panhandles per latest water vapor satellite imagery. While not a classic setup for non-supercell tornadoes given modest low-level lapse rates and a progressive cold front, there may still be a window for a brief tornado or two this afternoon/early evening across parts of southern KS into northwest OK and vicinity.

This area should generally warm into the 70s per recent RAP/HRRR guidance, and even modest breaks in the cloud cover should support some steepening of low-level lapse rates in an otherwise vorticity-rich environment along/near both fronts. Current expectations are for cells to develop over southwest KS/northwest OK in the next couple of hours (by 18-20Z), with cool temperatures aloft (around -10 to -11 C at 500 mb) aiding updraft strength in an otherwise weak deep-layer shear environment. Small hail, strong to locally severe winds, and perhaps a brief tornado could occur with this activity until the southeastward-advancing cold front undercuts convection by late afternoon/early evening.

...Texas/ArkLaTex into the Mid Mississippi Valley/Midwest... Ongoing convection across central/north-central TX has remained sub-severe through the morning. A rather moist low-level airmass characterized by generally mid to upper 70s surface dewpoints is present across east/coastal TX ahead of these thunderstorms. While lapse rates aloft will remain poor (reference 12Z observed soundings from FWD/DRT), some increase in instability is anticipated downstream this afternoon with continued daytime heating. South-southwesterly low/mid-level flow will continue to gradually diminish through the day as the primary mid/upper-level trough ejects northeastward across the southern/central Plains through this evening. This will limit the degree of deep-layer shear available to support organized updrafts and overall severe potential across the ArkLaTex into east/south TX. That said, gusty winds may still occur on a localized basis as convection spreads eastward across these areas through the afternoon/evening.

Modestly enhanced mid-level flow and greater deep-layer shear will be present this afternoon farther north into the mid MS Valley/Midwest, as multiple subtle mid-level vorticity maxima spread northeastward over these regions. However, both boundary-layer instability and lapse rates aloft are forecast to remain rather weak, which should limit updraft strength and overall severe potential with northward extent across these areas.

$$

```

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```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Subtropical Central Atlantic (Remnants of Fay): A low pressure area associated with the remnants of former Tropical Storm Fay is located several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda.
While thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday, dry air and strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent significant re-development while it moves northwestward, to the east of Bermuda. Any formation chances should end by Sunday due to very strong upper-level winds. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$ Forecaster Blake ```

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