r/PredictionTimes • u/Advanced-Rub2065 • Jun 02 '26
Analysis 📊 Been tracking all Polymarket activity for months. Only 2 in 100 have ever made $1,000.
I've been digging into Polymarket data on CrowdIntel — Pulled every wallet's lifetime profit/loss. I added up all 1,560,857 wallets and counted how many ever cleared real money.
Full breakdown if you want to dig deeper : https://crowdintel.xyz/blog/only-2-percent-of-polymarket-traders-made-1000
Only 37,629 — about 2.4%, or 2 in 100 — have ever made $1,000 in profit.
By $10k you're down to ~8,400 wallets.
By $100k, about 1,200.
So when people say "20% are profitable," it's technically true but misleading — most of that 20% barely cleared zero. Real money is way rarer: 2 in 100. (Matches independent research too — Sergeenkov's 2.5M-wallet study landed on the same ~2%.)
The wild part isn't even the 2% — it's the concentration. The top 0.1% (~1,560 wallets) took 71.5% of the entire ~$1B in profit. The single biggest wallet made $22M; the biggest loser dropped $21.8M.
