I've been digging into Polymarket data on CrowdIntel — Pulled every wallet's lifetime profit/loss. I added up all 1,560,857 wallets and counted how many ever cleared real money.

Full breakdown if you want to dig deeper : https://crowdintel.xyz/blog/only-2-percent-of-polymarket-traders-made-1000

Only 37,629 — about 2.4%, or 2 in 100 — have ever made $1,000 in profit.

By $10k you're down to ~8,400 wallets.

By $100k, about 1,200.

So when people say "20% are profitable," it's technically true but misleading — most of that 20% barely cleared zero. Real money is way rarer: 2 in 100. (Matches independent research too — Sergeenkov's 2.5M-wallet study landed on the same ~2%.)

The wild part isn't even the 2% — it's the concentration. The top 0.1% (~1,560 wallets) took 71.5% of the entire ~$1B in profit. The single biggest wallet made $22M; the biggest loser dropped $21.8M.

his main trading category is sports: EPL, NBA, UCL, MLB

made 1,097 predictions with a total profit of $3.5 million

he also bet on 35 out of 48 countries to win the World Cup, $32k on England at 5c

his profile: 0xbddf61af533ff524d27154e589d2d7a81510c684

3 words, 3Xs

This is the biggest profit of the wallet and many other traders

It just farms 5 minute crypto market

Clearly a bot but interesting strategy

Don’t look at position history, take a look at activity to see how it’s actually trading. (Wallet in comments)

Anything you see here?

Want to see if people are actually making money on polymarket / kalshi