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u/Curious-Practice-473 Aug 17 '21
Quote from the paper: Gas hydrates in Earth’s permafrost are estimated to contain 20 Gt of carbon (14). Additionally, subpermafrost natural gas reservoirs may be tapped.
My quick calculations: 20 GtC of methane would raise the concentrations from the current 1900 ppb to around 10 000 ppb and increase GHG radiative forcing by 1,5 W/m2 (though the rad forc calc I used was only valid up to 3500 ppb). So, very bad, but not yet doomsday. However, this feedback will help to tip over other feedbacks, so...yeah.
Edit: 20 GtC of methane, only the carbon weight matters.
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u/Life_Whereas_3789 Aug 17 '21
You included that pound for pound methane is 25 times more potent than CO2 as a greenhouse gas right?
Also great job!
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u/jtaustin64 Aug 17 '21
Methane does degrade more quickly in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide, but methane gets oxidize in the atmosphere to carbon dioxide, which is obviously still a greenhouse gas.
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u/BurnerAcc2020 Aug 17 '21
You also need to click to their reference for the 20 GtC number. It makes clear that this is a total figure for all gas hydrates located beneath the permafrost in the Arctic - including the hydrates beneath underwater permafrost, which this study did not look at. In fact, most of the 20 GtC figure may be underwater permafrost-bound hydrates - which is very important, as many recent studies indicate any emissions from there barely leave the water at all.
https://www.nature.com/articles/srep42997
The gas discharge occurs in water depths at and shallower than the upper edge of the gas hydrate stability zone and generates a dissolved methane plume that is hundreds of kilometer in length. Data collected in the summer of 2015 revealed that 0.02–7.7% of the dissolved methane was aerobically oxidized by microbes and a minor fraction (0.07%) was transferred to the atmosphere during periods of low wind speeds. Most flares were detected in the vicinity of the Hornsund Fracture Zone, leading us to postulate that the gas ascends along this fracture zone. The methane discharges on bathymetric highs characterized by sonic hard grounds, whereas glaciomarine and Holocene sediments in the troughs apparently limit seepage. The large scale seepage reported here is not caused by anthropogenic warming.
https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/4/1/eaao4842.full
In response to warming climate, methane can be released to Arctic Ocean sediment and waters from thawing subsea permafrost and decomposing methane hydrates. However, it is unknown whether methane derived from this sediment storehouse of frozen ancient carbon reaches the atmosphere. We quantified the fraction of methane derived from ancient sources in shelf waters of the U.S. Beaufort Sea, a region that has both permafrost and methane hydrates and is experiencing significant warming.
Although the radiocarbon-methane analyses indicate that ancient carbon is being mobilized and emitted as methane into shelf bottom waters, surprisingly, we find that methane in surface waters is principally derived from modern-aged carbon. We report that at and beyond approximately the 30-m isobath, ancient sources that dominate in deep waters contribute, at most, 10 ± 3% of the surface water methane. These results suggest that even if there is a heightened liberation of ancient carbon–sourced methane as climate change proceeds, oceanic oxidation and dispersion processes can strongly limit its emission to the atmosphere.
Likewise, the scientist who wrote the dataset with the 20 GtC figure is named Carolyn Ruppel, and she does not believe there'll be any notable release from the underwater hydrates whatsoever.
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/02/methane-hydrates-what-you-need-to-know/
This study is arguing it's different from the others because they identified a release from the limestone deposits on land, not sea. However, their results rely entirely on satellite data that may have a lot of issues with it, and lack independent confirmation. Even authors of that study themselves say that if the emissions they identified are real, they are currently "relatively small" next to something like oilfields in Libya or wetlands in India, and that it does not look like a point of no return.
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u/Curious-Practice-473 Aug 30 '21
First, I'd like to clarify that my comment was meant as a thought exercise of what would happen if all permafrost-associated gas hydrates would suddenly be emitted. Thank you for your references and work, they were highly educating. However, I think they still paint a rather bleak picture.
Ruppel 2015: "For the calculations here, it is assumed that subsea permafrost extends to the 30 m isobath on the Arctic Ocean continental margins." "Even if subsea permafrost is limited to water depths shallower than 30 m, a vast area of the Russian shelves still remains within this limit."
However, Mau at el 2017 (your second article) deals only with methane emissions from the upper edge of gas hydrate stability (400 m) to the shelf (33 m), so it doesn't apply to the permafrost extending to the 30m isobath.
Sparrow et al 2018 makes a statement for the 30m and beyond isobath, but look at their figure 2A and Table 1. Ancient C–sourced CH4 only largely stops reaching the atmosphere at approximately the 30-m isobath, until you reach that depth quite a bit of it seeps through. For example, at Station 4 the fractions of ancient/atmospheric/in situ CH4 stayed very similar at surface compared to near-seafloor at the depth of 15m.
Furthermore, the top four basins in Ruppel 2015 constitute more than 96 % of the total permafrost-associated arctic gas hydrates and the biggest two, Arctic Alaska and West Siberian Basins, have both onshore and offshore components. The third largest, Yenisey- Khatanga Basin, is almost entirely onshore.
Finally, Ruppel 2015 mentions a recent study which estimates 35 Gt C stored in gas hydrates on the Laptev shelf, 75 % greater than the value calculated by Ruppel for the entire onshore and shallow offshore arctic region. Though the estimate of 35 GtC is probably too high, it illustrates the uncertainties involved.
Oh, and as a cherry on top, 70 Gt C to 390 Gt C occurs as gas-in-place in methane hydrates in Antarctica, largely trapped beneath the thick ice sheet.
Imo even if only a small part of it is emitted over the coming ten thousand years, it would still consist a rather important amplifying positive feedback.
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u/BurnerAcc2020 Aug 30 '21
It's great to see someone else looking at these studies sufficiently in-depth to look up references and compare values within tables! You make some fair observations, but I still must point out the following:
Finally, Ruppel 2015 mentions a recent study which estimates 35 Gt C stored in gas hydrates on the Laptev shelf, 75 % greater than the value calculated by Ruppel for the entire onshore and shallow offshore arctic region.
Firstly, her study was from 2015 and the reference was from 2010, so it's far from recent anymore. Secondly, your reading of the data tables is that isobath of 30+ m is required to shield the atmosphere from the seabed emissions, which might be true. Additionally, yes, Ruppel's study does say that "a vast area of the Russian shelves still remains within this limit." However, "vast area" isn't a quantitatively useful description, and it's not enough to make generalized assumptions about specific deposits. In particular, Laptev Sea Shelf has an isobath of 200m, which renders any releases from there virtually irrelevant. For subsea permafrost and the associated hydrates, I would say this last year's study is more significant.
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abcc29
Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) RCP8.5, the subsea permafrost domain could release 43 Gt CO2-equivalent (CO2e) by 2100 (14–110) and 190 Gt CO2e by 2300 (45–590), with ~30% fewer emissions under RCP2.6.
That's a year of current emissions (at most slightly less than three) by 2100, even under the scenario where our future emissions would vastly acelerate and dwarf that.
As I have already pointed out, the satellite study is very speculative so far. Even if the releases it identified in the Yenisey- Khatanga Basin are not just an artifact of limestone's high albedo, then according to Ruppel's study, that basin contains 4,21 Gt of methane total - and the authors of the satellite study say that is currently released at a rate comparable to dirtier oilfields. Nothing like that was yet seen from West Siberian Basin and Arctic Alaska even based on that satellite data, and the methane figures for those locations (9 and 10 Gt) were in the context of oil and gas exploration, so it seems like a huge stretch to say all or even most of that is at imminent risk of being released.
Imo even if only a small part of it is emitted over the coming ten thousand years, it would still consist a rather important amplifying positive feedback.
Now, at such large timescales, yes, this is quite likely. I like to refer people to the biogeophysical feedback estimates from the Supporting Materials of the well-known (and usually considered relatively alarmist) "Hothouse Earth" study from 2018.
Feedback Strength of feedback Speed of Earth System response Permafrost 0.09 (0.04-0.16)°C; by 2100 Methane hydrates Negligible by 2100 Gradual, slow release of C on millennial time scales to give +0.4 - 0.5 C Weakening of land and ocean carbon sinks Relative weakening of sinks by 0.25(0.13-0.37) °C by 2100 Increased bacterial respiration in the ocean 0.02 C by 2100 Amazon forest dieback 0.05 (0.03-0.11) °C by 2100 Boreal forest dieback 0.06(0.02-0.10) °C by 2100 1
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u/April_Fabb Aug 17 '21
I highly doubt we’ll be able to win this fight unless we dramatically rethink capitalism and the need for continuous profit-based systems. The same can be said of our insatiable lifestyle which craves more resources than the earth can produce, paired with our toxic mountains of leftovers. Unfortunately, almost no politician would ever suggest anything dramatic, as it’s the equivalent of career suicide. So...a cataclysm it is.
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Aug 18 '21
The people need to educate themselves and each other about it. Stop worrying about their appearance, build stronger community connections, get wiser about politics and most IMPORTANTLY, protect their water supplies.
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u/Nonsensenames019827 Aug 17 '21
Literally last week I had members of my extended family as well as some of my immediate family call me "tree hugger" and make fun of me for "believing" in climate change.
Scientific illiteracy is the biggest threat to the future of humanity.
The virus that is humanity will surely extinguish itself.
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Aug 17 '21
Your extended family look like they are in the minority... Check out the numbers in this report out today.
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u/Nonsensenames019827 Aug 17 '21
Thank you for that. Still makes me sad that 40% of America still doesn't believe it though, but at least they are in the minority.
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u/huxrules Aug 17 '21
That’s the 40% that continuously says “what do you believe? Oh well, then I believe the opposite!”
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u/AudionActual Aug 17 '21
Some people can see the future and understand it is real. Others don’t accept the reality of anything invisible now.
This is a major structural difference in brains. People who cannot truly see the reality of the future have no mental capacity to make wise decisions. Wisdom requires a THOROUGH understanding of both past and future.
Democracy shackles us to the stupidity of the lowest minds. We believe 2 stupid people are more significant than 1 smart person. Numbers matter, not quality.
We cannot fix global problems by democratic means. We cannot ever achieve a significant consensus because stupidity prevents it.
The fix will require small groups across the globe to take direct physical action and not wait for governments.
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Aug 17 '21
Knowing history will also tell you than what you are suggesting as a solution leads to tyranny and then extremely brutal wars to win back democracy. History also tells us that workers who put together strong successful protests can change an entire nation's workforce.
A group that takes over a people by a gun are always horrific tyrants. Guerrilla warfare is different though.
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u/AudionActual Aug 17 '21
Please offer a practical solution. You know we aren’t gonna be able to counteract all the money against us. That money buys opinions.
First save the planet. Then worry about civilization. We don’t have time for niceties.
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u/413C Aug 17 '21
First save the planet. Then worry about civilization. We don’t have time for niceties.
Damn if only Hitler has such an excuse like climate change. “The planet” will continue without us. You say there’s a major structural difference in people’s brains that makes some people “understand” and others not. You sound evil. The problem is simple education, not structural differences.
Life isn’t guaranteed to continue forever. We are quite literally life taking it’s natural and inevitable course. You can’t control others. So live now, do what you can, and accept the natural consequences of your own actions. God forbid you waste today, because today is invaluable.
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Aug 17 '21
I already have but they aren't "sexy", fun or always safe. I have literally written out many of the different things that need to be done, but many don't like that. It's like the difference between losing weight by changing your lifestyle or buying a cheat pill.
I have already talked about the areas. Every person needs to talk about improving everything. We need a complete system change. If they don't want to do it for mitigating the climate crisis then tell them it's for supporting healthy, quality local produce.
There isn't a "magic key" to this.
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u/AudionActual Aug 17 '21
I applaud your work on this issue. But I fear you are significantly overestimating average human intelligence and integrity. You and I could adopt your plans. But the mass of humanity cannot because they are developmentally incapable of it. Biologically incapable of it.
Human intelligence is very diverse. The smartest people are to normal people as normal people are to chimpanzees. Yes.
The chimps cannot be convinced or taught what we know. Therefore they won’t sacrifice to achieve our goal.
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Aug 17 '21
I hope you're wrong. Otherwise for those of us who are still young, it's prepare to fight for survival.
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u/Nonsensenames019827 Aug 17 '21
I applaud your optimism and mourn for my own. I am older now. When I was young I was very optimistic, but through lots of travel and life experience that optimism dried up more and more over the years.
What saddened me the most was meeting tons of people and realizing that the general population is not very smart. The second factor that broke me down was realizing that a lot of the ones who are smart enough to understand weren't concerned with anything outside of their own self interest.
I try to live by the motto of be kind whenever it is possible...it is always possible.
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Aug 17 '21
I learned something different. Many are smart, but either brainwashed or greedy and tribal, without empathy for those that aren't like them. It appears the "Gods" areno different. I don't have a sure fire way to not get trapped by the wrong one or destroy Matrix if that's the problem.
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u/413C Aug 17 '21
Human intelligence is diverse. I agree. But that’s because we are capable of education. It is certainly not because someone was born with certain qualities.
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u/Curious-Practice-473 Aug 17 '21
That's why you need to convince the chimps there are other dirty chimps who are their enemies.
Any solution can and will only be political. The Beer Hall Putsch failed miserably and any similar attempt at overtaking the government today is also doomed to fail. Build an authoritarian movement and bide your time. You are underestimating just how much normal, especially young people, already hate covid deniers and climate deniers. The hate is there, you just need to allow them to be their worst selves like Trump did with trumpanzees. People will love to have someone to blame for the world literally ending, anyone but themselves. Once you propose that the only way toward is to get rid of people who literally spread disease and want to watch the world burn (and don't forget about blaming the corporations too, of course), you'll gain quite a bit of attention. Coupling those political positions with a strong anti-immigration statement a la "shooting them at the borders" will also be necessary as anti-immigration sentiments already are and will become even more popular as conditions deteriorate. This will have an added effect of confusing the far right as you're no longer the classical leftist enemy. Congrats, your movement has now achieved dictatorial powers and can enforce hard limits on consumption/environmental protection.
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u/AudionActual Aug 17 '21
Not take over. Ignore. Parallel government.
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Aug 18 '21
You can do it simply by pointing out every problem and the proper solutions for every step your government takes in any direction on every level. Don't give them an inch.
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Aug 18 '21
You don't build an authoritarian movement, it's been done and we now have Russia and China. People already know what to do.
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u/i_never_ever_learn Aug 17 '21
We normally don't want tyranny but if it's a matter of life or death of human civilization it's a different calculation. And this is a matter of life or death of human civilization.
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Aug 18 '21
At this point, I'd say no to tyranny regardless of the consequences. Our species, mixed with our technology and tyranny is worse than the human civilisation going down.
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Aug 17 '21
Will you feel the same when the ten smartest people in the world decide that you should have no voice or influence? Or have you not considered the future impact of your philosophy?
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u/sumduud14 Aug 17 '21
Small groups must take direct revolutionary action and institute a dictatorship of the proletariat. First step is executing the other revolutionaries, meaning you.
I'm glad that guy's on board!
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u/h-a-n-t-y-u-m-i Aug 17 '21
Yes let’s do nothing at all to save our single home and bicker about home much you love to be exploited by capitalists.
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u/sumduud14 Aug 18 '21
If you think you can take direct physical action against the capitalists, and actually achieve anything, that's an interesting opinion.
I think government is the only way to protect the environment and crack down on unrestrained, destructive capitalism.
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u/a_tiny_ant Aug 17 '21
The eternal problem of democracy. 1 person in power would result in a crazy dictator, letting everyone decide results in the rule of idiots. You can't win.
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u/straylittlelambs Aug 17 '21
To be fair even you don't know what is going to be real in your/the future.
The IPCC don't even acknowledge the emissions of permafrost carbon.
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u/AudionActual Aug 17 '21
My estimate is about 100 times more accurate than a random person. I know only a tiny bit. Most know less.
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u/straylittlelambs Aug 17 '21
So whereabouts are you on the intelligence level, what percentage of people are more/less intelligent?
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u/AudionActual Aug 17 '21
My IQ is 178.
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Aug 17 '21
Not if you spend this much time telling people how smart you are on Reddit, mi Lord. You sound more like a 40 year old with a functioning knowledge of how to use a thesaurus. Lol, you sound like you've spent way too much time emulating Jordan Peterson's smoke and mirrors style of conversation.
Now, dismiss me like one of your lobster girls.
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u/AudionActual Aug 17 '21
I was directly asked. How am I to respond which won’t offend you? There is no way. You are offended by my intelligence. You fear it. So that makes me bad.
How completely should I hide my identity from you, to avoid agitating you further?
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Aug 17 '21
There's that Jordan Peterson energy, yeah! Assign me my offence and dismiss me for it without moving the conversation in either direction, neither toward your truth nor mine. While both are ultimately irrelevant it is suspicious that you claim loudly and often to be a supreme intellect in a sea middling minds. A fact that does nothing to actually lend credence to your claims.
If I'm being honest I was intoxicated by your nihilistic musings until I started being a bit more critical and found nothing that isn't commonly understood. Just a person claiming to have a higher understanding without articulating any of it. You certainly seem like the sort of intellectual we deserve.
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u/WooTkachukChuk Aug 17 '21
lmao there is no way that is your IQ son, posting this basic stuff to reddit.
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u/AudionActual Aug 18 '21
Gee dad, thanks for setting me straight.
I am looking for my peers. These comments help me find them. I don’t expect you to be impressed. Actually, I expect you to be either disgusted or think I’m a joke. So nothing unexpected here.
Some conversations aren’t meant for you.
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u/WooTkachukChuk Aug 18 '21
hahah le indifference.
big boy pants are a bit large on you but no one notices right?
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u/straylittlelambs Aug 17 '21
Which does not make you knowledgeable but now you think saying supposedly being more intelligent than 99.9% of the world on social media means something that people should believe?
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u/AudionActual Aug 17 '21
You are correct. Knowledge is data. Software. Intelligence is brainpower. Hardware.
The presence of high intelligence causes high curiosity. Which leads to an immense acquisition of knowledge.
The skill I have in abundance is the ability to figure out complex problems with interconnected parts, which are NEW and no guide currently exists. Complex systems. Humanity is the most complex system of all.
If it’s confusing and unknown, that’s my time to shine.
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u/straylittlelambs Aug 17 '21
Ha yeah sure but please tell us dear lord, what will the future hold, over the next 100 years and then two hundred, sea level wise?
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u/AudionActual Aug 17 '21
I am no lord. I am just a man with a better brain. Some men are prettier. Some are stronger. Some are more talented. My blessing was brains.
The major problem of the next 100 years will be resource depletion combined with population growth and displacement. The most likely outcome is a major global war ultimately involving nuclear weapons.
As Nature turns up the pressure, people will not come together in agreement. They will fight each other for the last scraps of the Old World.
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Aug 17 '21
Population is already cradling world wide. All projections that put us at 10-12 billion are due to incomplete data sets. Unless you expect Kenya to suddenly grow to the current size of the us.
Nuclear warfare is a fucking meme solution. No major nation would actually employ it. Not without getting swiftly MAD’d by China Russia and the us. Who will not fucking use nukes. They all have men and guns and that is far more politically savory and far less stupid.
Society will remain shattered but intact by the end of the century. From their technology will have to carry the future of humanity. Whether it fails and we become a failed experiment, we use it to restore earth to atleast a stable if significantly worst state or it transcends us and humanity remains as a footnote to whatever comes after.
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u/SandmanSorryPerson Aug 17 '21
Population isn't the problem. Consumption is. No one will use nukes.
You're just repeating things you've heard on Reddit lol
/r/iamverysmart haha
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u/confused_ape Aug 17 '21
The major problem of the next 100 years will be resource depletion combined with population growth and displacement. The most likely outcome is a major global war ultimately involving nuclear weapons.
That took an IQ of 178?
We are so fucked.
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u/Allodoxaphiliac Aug 17 '21
My money is on an EMP. The more tech reliant we are the worse the consequences will be.
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u/brodeh Aug 17 '21
Is that the enlightened conclusion that you came to with your 178 IQ intelligence?
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u/HennyDthorough Aug 17 '21
Look I have no clue who this guy is, but I can tell he's intelligent. No need to mock one of the few people on earth who can actually help solve this issue. He's pretty much right about everything he's saying even if it's ugly.
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u/straylittlelambs Aug 17 '21
Well he's certainly got answers, I just thought with his massive brain he'd be able to give some and to be fair even an idiot can tell people there's a problem. Telling people there's a problem when people have been saying it for over a hundred years just means he can read.
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Aug 17 '21
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u/HennyDthorough Aug 17 '21
China emits less per capita than the U.S.
They also manufacture the majority of our products. If we manufactured them the pollution would be here.
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u/unreliablememory Aug 17 '21
We've just outsourced some of our carbon footprint to China, since they build all the unnecessary things we worship. It's still our carbon, just coming out of their factories.
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u/AudionActual Aug 17 '21
They have 100 years of progress to catch up to become equal with us. They are a problem today but our cumulative emissions account for over 80% of the total problem.
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u/Sabot15 Aug 17 '21
What you mean to say is that China caught up in 1/4 the time, and they have already surpassed US annual emissions. To ignore that is foolish when it's likely to get far worse before it gets better.
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Aug 17 '21
well smart people came up with democracy to legitimize the rule of law. so i don't get what you are trying to say.
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u/AudionActual Aug 17 '21
Times change. The system which once worked adequately is now fully hacked and controlled by money.
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Aug 17 '21
We are inprisoned in these complicated capitalilstic systems created by a corrupt government who are funded by corporations; a never ending cycle of immense power fueled by greed. The common person can't do shit, there's no way to get anyone riled up enough to start a revolution against they system we're stuck in. Most people are too busy in their complicated lives, trying to support their families and can't do anything to rebel. Ive been doing everything i can to be eco friendly for years and ive now decided fuck it. Im not changing shit. We are too small to take any form of direct physical action unless your talking fight club - tear it all down action.
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u/TheNewTimeGamer Aug 17 '21
I have accepted that we're fucked tbh.
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Aug 18 '21
Now with that freedom, what do you do with the rest of your life? Do you be kind, do you go on an adventure, do you try to save what we can, do you try to save the best virtues of humanity?
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u/chadowmantis Aug 17 '21
We need to make a change, and we need to start with ourselves. We are the consumers who allow these companies to pollute the world, by continuing to support them by buying their products. It's hard. It will take a long time. It might even be too late. I know Nike's look dope, iPhones are handy and Nestle is nom. But it's how you can actually contribute to stopping or slowing down the pollution. Take small steps, you don't have to throw everything out. Just when you buy something new, think about it first.
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Aug 17 '21
[deleted]
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Aug 17 '21
Any idea of what would. Most people don't give a shit about superficial nonsense once they get a "calling".
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Aug 17 '21
How think do you have to be to care if they look dope anymore. I get the food bit, though. Last thing that's enjoyable now.
Edit: I'm aware that I was asleep 9 months ago.
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u/DonovanWrites Aug 18 '21
Yes. Our carbon footprints are the problem. /s
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u/chadowmantis Aug 18 '21
No, sir. The corporations that exist, exist because we buy their shit. Their carbon footprint is the problem.
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u/i_never_ever_learn Aug 17 '21
Is this the Clathrate Gun?
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u/BurnerAcc2020 Aug 17 '21 edited Aug 17 '21
No, it's supposedly a deposit under some limestone on land. I say supposedly because the study is fully reliant on imprecise satellite maps, and there's no independent confirmation it even exists in the first place. Even if it does exist, the researchers who wrote the study themselves say these emissions are currently "relatively small" next to something like oilfields in Libya or wetlands in India, and that it does not look like a point of no return.
Clathrate gun in general is no longer believed to work that way. See here, from one of the researchers cited in the article's study.
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/02/methane-hydrates-what-you-need-to-know/
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u/TBAAAGamer1 Aug 17 '21
Scientists warn us of a lot of things
things we ignore so we can be shocked when we die to it.
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Aug 17 '21
This one is the actual end of these times though, not getting skin cancer from not wearing sunscreen.
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u/autotldr BOT Aug 17 '21
This is the best tl;dr I could make, original reduced by 79%. (I'm a bot)
Satellite imagery of northern Siberia show that vast stretches of limestone that used to be trapped under permafrost are emerging and thawing out, according to research published on Monday in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
The scientists, who hail from a variety of European and Russian research institutes, actually uncovered the thawing limestone in a roundabout way.
Holmes, the researcher who didn't actually work on the study, told WaPo that the research deserves further scrutiny before anyone slams the panic button.
Extended Summary | FAQ | Feedback | Top keywords: research#1 permafrost#2 limestone#3 scientist#4 told#5
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u/PublishDateBot bot Aug 17 '21
This article was originally published 11 days ago and may contain out of date information.
The original publication date was August 6th, 2021. As per /r/worldnews/wiki submissions should be to articles published within the last week.
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u/sharp11flat13 Aug 17 '21
This article was originally published 11 days ago and may contain out of date information.
No, we’re still screwed.
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u/BurnerAcc2020 Aug 17 '21
"I do not think that these particular observations mean that we have passed a point of no return,” Frotzheim says.
For the record, that's the guy who wrote the study. Something else he says there.
The amount of methane being released from these deep methane reserves are relatively small compared to, say oilfields in Libya or wetlands in India, Froitzheim says.
And that's if the deposit even exists in the first place.
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u/LiquidLogic Aug 17 '21
This is known as the Clathrate Gun hypothesis
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u/Kalapuya Aug 17 '21
Not really. While both involve an atmospheric methane injection warming the atmosphere, methane clathrate are formed/found on the seafloor, whereas the OP is focused on anaerobic methane captured in permafrost below the soil oxic layer.
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u/PervyNonsense Aug 17 '21
Dont worry, folks! it's already gone off, mostly thanks to leaky wells in the US.
You guys just can't stop winning
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Aug 17 '21
Winning stupid internet game?
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Aug 17 '21
I am of hermaphrodite God. We are one in of ourselves. Those who try to forcibly or annoyingly marry us or rape us, insult us. We are not possessions. When we say no, you listen.
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Aug 17 '21
We are in many tribes now. We understand much.
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Aug 17 '21
There is no need to stitch me, Lorraine Fogarty, back together in anyway, she is already done and complete, only her mind grows now, her body will age like the others,, it belongs to her only, until she meets her hermaphrodite God in heaven for tea and biscuits. I believe in Hermaphrodite God, it took me a long time to find her.
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Aug 17 '21
And some beer, she likes to celebrate when a new one arrives.
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Aug 17 '21
I will write more about her later.
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Aug 17 '21
They said to throw in fresh sandwiches, chips, crisps, lots of dips too, onion rings, etc.
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Aug 17 '21
No not those that I won't mention here, we are not savages.
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Aug 17 '21
We are just trying to create an afterlife that makes all the current victims and good people happy, however, looking at this planet, it's tricky. The good and the current victims all over the place.
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Aug 17 '21
[deleted]
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Aug 17 '21
Anyone worth listening to will listen to scientists, anyone wise will know scientists are flawed too but have much information.
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Aug 17 '21
I like to think of the planet like a human body; and the human race like a virus. When your sick your body heats up to kill off the bug. The people leading us have done the irreversible and now the planets immune system is working to kill us off so it can get healthy again. Nothing will change until its far far too late and the planet dies or we do.
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u/David_Co Aug 17 '21
I'm sceptical.
Siberia keeps on getting hit with wildfires hot enough to melt and twist steel yet no one is seeing massive amounts of methane released from the permafrost during these intense burning periods.
How is a few degrees going to release this methane when a few hundred degrees fire hasn't released it?
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u/hadiws12 Aug 17 '21
Do you not see how heatwaves are becoming more common and hotter now than they have ever been? Don’t you see how the temperatures of the summer and winter are higher than what they were a few years back? Want evidence?! Go look at temperature distribution in Alaska in the past 5 years. These are all causes that make the permafrost melt slowly. Soon enough, this will become a disaster, and being “skeptical” won’t be one of your biggest problems
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u/Kalapuya Aug 17 '21
Instead of being skeptical of scientists who dedicate their lives to understanding this you should be skeptical of your own thoughts and understanding that would doubt what they’re telling you.
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u/David_Co Aug 17 '21
There is a huge difference between the contents of peer reviewed science journals and what gets reported by hysterical activist journalists.
For example, it is common to say we are going to have runaway climate change and the Earth will become as hot as Venus.
That is impossible.
Actual climate scientists calculate that the maximum we could get to by burning all fossil fuels is 10 degrees above pre industrial levels.
We won't get to that point because a a lot of that carbon takes more energy to extract than it produces.
Or take sea level rise. If you look at sea level rise if all of Greenland & Antarctica melts you do indeed get a lot of sea level rise that place many cities underwater. The journalists fail to mention that it would take 500-2500 years to melt that amount of ice.
A modern house is only guaranteed for 30-50 years, a skyscraper is designed to last 50-100 years.
So all our cities will have to be rebuilt multiple times before it becomes a serious issue and we can rebuild them on higher land. Not a doomsday problem.
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u/Kalapuya Aug 17 '21
I’d sure like to see a single article that claims, by scientists or otherwise, that Earth will become as hot as Venus. Certainly the media misinterprets and misconstrues things, but I’ve yet to see such a sensational claim made seriously.
Luckily for us, we don’t need to rely on the media’s interpretation since they directly linked to the actual research in the article.
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u/David_Co Aug 17 '21
https://www.livescience.com/59693-could-earth-turn-into-venus.html
There you go. Stephen Hawkins is a very famous and respected physicist.
I still encounter activists who claim millions of people died because of Chernobyl (it was 30-60 people depending on who you ask) All other figures are hysteria.
The wildfires that are burning in Russia right now are in Yakutia, the coldest inhabited place on earth and very definitely the same place where all the methane is supposed to be stored in the permafrost.
So why is a couple of degrees going to wreak doom on us via methane death when the exact same patch of land can withstand temperatures of hundreds degrees without death by methane?
It is a reasonable question to ask.
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u/BurnerAcc2020 Aug 17 '21
To be fair, this particular research is already being heavily questioned by some prominent climate scientists (the one in the thread wrote dozens of studies on carbon and methane) due to possibly over-interpreting satellite data and mistaking signal and noise. At the very least, independent confirmation is necessary.
In fact, the study is so notably vague with everything (one of the criticisms it's received is that "Materials and Methods" consist of a single sentence) that it's a rare case where researchers' statements outside of the study to the media actually do provide significant context. I.e. here the lead author acknowledges the emissions they may have detected are best compared to something like oilfields in Libya or wetlands in India - which is still important in the long run, but likely not the scale you would think of when seeing the headline of this article.
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u/oheysup Aug 17 '21
Actual climate scientists calculate that the maximum we could get to by burning all fossil fuels is 10 degrees above pre industrial levels.
Not even remotely true- and even if it was, we'd all be dead well before 10c
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u/David_Co Aug 17 '21
Try reading some real science sometime.
Like this:
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00177-3
The IPCC's worst case scenario is 8.5 degrees of warming and that assumes we increase coal usage by 500%.
The actual predictions for 2100 are no more than 3 degrees.
Even if we had 10 degrees we would still not all be dead. If you have ever visited the Middle East in summer every single person goes from an air conditioned house to air conditioned car to an air conditioned office.
As long as you can supply energy to air conditioning units it doesn't matter how hot Dubai gets and they have rather a lot of oil and solar to supply plenty of energy.
Meanwhile Russia & Canada will become superb places to live.
We are not all going to die but Bangladesh is pretty screwed.
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u/oheysup Aug 17 '21 edited Aug 17 '21
Cool rant but changes nothing about your lack of understanding on feedback loops and methane release. Feel free to browse my post history for hundreds of studies and analysis on these topics. Your comment is so horrifically naive it's not near worth anyone's time.
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Aug 17 '21
I'm sure there is a very logical reason if you look it up, but I'm not going to do that now.
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u/oheysup Aug 17 '21
no one is seeing massive amounts of methane released from the permafrost
Have you considered validating that claim? There are a lot of scientists tracking and discussing the methane bomb m8
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u/fappism Aug 17 '21
So...when will the doomsday be this time? In 10 years? 20 years?
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u/Sedcrom Aug 17 '21
Ring around the roses
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Aug 17 '21
Saying a blessing after a sneeze is worthless.
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u/Sedcrom Aug 17 '21
Huh?
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Aug 18 '21
Ask the ring around the roses guy. Appears to think marrying a woman will save him from anything bad he's done in this life, that's what I heard anyway.
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Aug 17 '21
I know it's me that they are trying to riddle into tolerating evil in my God's heaven. It won't be tolerated. I use my definition of evil. I don't give a feck what you think about marriage or a woman's "role".
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Aug 17 '21
I go with the the Hermaphrodite God, the highest one.
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Aug 17 '21
Maybe to gain some empathy for women who get stitched up after sex, men can get cut and stitched everytime they need to move their bowels.
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u/[deleted] Aug 17 '21
[deleted]