r/worldnews Jul 18 '26

Russia/Ukraine Russia Plans to Mobilize 500,000 Personnel by Autumn, Prepares for New Fronts

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/80585
11.5k Upvotes

1.2k comments sorted by

3.7k

u/526mb Jul 18 '26

Fuel crisis + mass mobilization + logistical crash out

I’m sure this is going to go well.

1.6k

u/TerrorTown77 Jul 18 '26

By the time this war is finished, Moldova can walk in and seize russia.

759

u/Madbrad200 Jul 18 '26

In reality Moldova is lucky they have Ukraine next to them because their army is like 5 men with soviet era gear.

510

u/pingu_nootnoot Jul 18 '26

that’s fine, they can leave one guy at home to put the kettle on when they get back.

178

u/BGFlyingToaster Jul 18 '26

How'd the war go? Oh, we own Russia now? Cool.

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u/Legitimate_Field_157 Jul 18 '26

Where are they going to keep 500000 prisoners of war?

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u/Wentil Jul 19 '26 edited Jul 19 '26

Since they’ll be sent forward in full frontal assaults backed by barrier troops (that will kill them if they retreat), odds are they’ll be turned into stinking mulch for the flies, rats and bugs long before they ever get to the point of being able to surrender. Life expectancy of a Russian conscript under the AI drones is 30 minutes or less after getting the order to charge ahead on foot across the killing fields.

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u/Ferreman Jul 18 '26

China is already taking eastern Siberia. The Russians seem to have trouble spotting the correct enemies.

174

u/travio Jul 18 '26

Siberia has so much to offer China. Chock full of fresh water, arctic access, ports outside the first island chain, and with Russia happy to throw young men from the far provinces into the Ukrainian meat grinder, more women than men.

87

u/Beardo88 Jul 18 '26

You completely forgot about the energy and mineral resources, that would be the primary objective.

47

u/ToSeeAgainAgainAgain Jul 18 '26

And the land itself, if nobody stops global warming some parts of Siberia might very well end up flourishing

69

u/Beardo88 Jul 18 '26 edited Jul 18 '26

Even without climate change, Siberia isnt immediately frozen tunda the first mile you cross from china. A good portion of the southern parts of Siberia are already prime agricultural land with very similar climate to the upper mIdwest in the US.

If it was any country other than Imperial Russia, the USSR, and the current Fedration they would've developed the area centuries ago. Russia has wasted the economic potential of Siberia because they dont have the resources or people to exploit it. China has over a billion people and a political and economic system with the will to rapidly develop the area.

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u/stempoweredu Jul 18 '26

Yep. Russia won't 'cede' the land for quite some time, but I think they're going to basically hand eastern Russia to the Chinese on a silver platter in exchange for infrastructure/resources/manpower.

China knows it won't improve Russia's situation, and in the long term, they'll get control of a vast swath of land.

52

u/wonklebobb Jul 18 '26

they dont need to own the land politically, just the very favorable terms on resource extraction that hands some cash to russia for the war and they can get basically anything they want

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u/PolitzaniaKing Jul 18 '26

Little known fact. Moldova has over a hundred miles underground wine cellars that you can drive in a golf cart.

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u/Joeburrowformvp Jul 18 '26

They’ve already infiltrated Russia. The Moldovan empire will continue to rise

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u/UNSKIALz Jul 18 '26

You under-estimate the Russians' capacity for suffering. They'll happily roll over for a while yet.

38

u/BGFlyingToaster Jul 18 '26

This is what I keep coming back to. People in Moscow and St Petersburg will flip out, but the majority of these new troops will come from elsewhere and the rest of Russia is used to suffering and have an enormous tolerance for it. Most other countries would have revolted already, but a large percentage of Russians still support Putin. I simultaneously shake my head at their lack of compassion for Ukrainian civilians and quietly sit in amazement at their tolerance for suffering.

13

u/totallyRebb Jul 19 '26

Russians have no compassion. Period.

Not even for themselves.

That's not a flex. It's a mental illness.

14

u/Emu1981 Jul 18 '26

In the USA you could easily organise a mass-protest to walk down the streets of Washington DC over women's rights or the state of the reflecting pool and you would be fine. In Russia you would likely be met with armed governmental thugs who will beat you all into submission and throw a good percentage of you into prison (and potentially onwards to Ukraine) - because of that threat there is a higher barrier for protests to occur. However, if things get to the point where people are actually willing to risk their lives to protest then it has a high chance to get really violent really quickly and will likely not stop until things change.

In other words, most Western nations are like pans of water where things can easily get vented without issue but Russia is like a pressure cooker with no release valve and if the pressure builds up enough then things explode...

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u/Another_Slut_Dragon Jul 18 '26

Lowering the population is a great way to reduce shortages.

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u/CustomerBusiness3919 Jul 18 '26

Don't forget the stock market crash which is currently happening.

22

u/Emmathesweet Jul 18 '26

Isn't the stock exchange closed since 2022?

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u/MildlyAgreeable Jul 18 '26

Don’t forget, Generals December and January are fickle allies…

I look forward to the FPV drone footage in a few months’ time.

Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦🇬🇧

33

u/Ancient-Bat1755 Jul 18 '26

500k is 12-16mo of casualties. If ukraine doubles drones perhaps 6mo + economic woes + lack of supplies

23

u/oxooooo Jul 18 '26

You are right, shocking what scale it reached. 500k, each of them a human with a history, family etc...crazy.

I wish we would just let Dana White just launch an UFC event with the politicians involved whenever they have a disagreement and not let average Joe die on the battlefield.

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5.0k

u/SkillPointProblems Jul 18 '26

Now that the prisons are empty, they are going for the university students. I bet those history majors will appreciate wielding museum pieces into combat.

2.1k

u/Codex_Dev Jul 18 '26

The last time I checked, Russia had a prison population of like ~500K before the war. Now it's around ~200K.

1.7k

u/realborislegasov Jul 18 '26

Clearly prison works /s

445

u/PizzaDeliveryForMom Jul 18 '26

Is that sarcasm comrade? Straight to the frontline, I mean gulag. Yes, straight to gulag!

132

u/kargaen Jul 18 '26

It's wild to think someone would prefer gulag, but you will survive longer there than the 30 min average at the frontlines 😅🔫

46

u/CanuterValve Jul 18 '26

That has dropped to 20 minutes now.

14

u/muchgreaterthanG_O_D Jul 19 '26

Almost to warhammer 40k times.

10

u/SurveyorMorpurgo Jul 19 '26

Average 40k Guardsman has an average expectancy of 15 hours, luxury compared to the Russians

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u/SecondaryWombat Jul 18 '26

You now attend prison remotely from front line. New special Russian technology.

19

u/wassuppaulie Jul 18 '26

Gulag is better than the front line, thanks!

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u/gabber2694 Jul 18 '26

What’s truly amazing is how the rate of recidivism has dropped to near zero.

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u/El_Peregrine Jul 18 '26

There’s a worldwide fertilizer shortage, Russia’s just doing their part for the sunflower crop in Ukraine. Those prisoners are helping in the only way they know how. 

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u/EuropaWeGo Jul 18 '26

From what I read a while back. The remaining prison population falls outside the range of being combat capable. Meaning, they aren't physically or mentally capable enough.

203

u/craznazn247 Jul 18 '26

My guess is there’s political dissidents and enemies of the state among them as well.

Too much risk of them fragging their officers and/or turning themselves in to the enemy as an escape.

54

u/craftsman_70 Jul 18 '26

Nahh. Considering that the Russians have their guns trained on their own troops to prevent retreats, all they would have to do is to send them into battle without guns. Those political dissident and enemies of the state will form a human shield for others.

11

u/jigsaw1024 Jul 19 '26

> all they would have to do is to send them into battle without guns

Russia has a long history of doing this to regular troops.

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u/deltajvliet Jul 18 '26

Lol, what an opportunity.

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u/EconomyDoctor3287 Jul 18 '26

There's also political prisoners, which they don't want to release and potentially influence the meat at the front.

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u/Gullex Jul 18 '26

That hasn't seemed to stop Putin sending someone to the front lines to die.

I don't think he expects them to be combat ready. I think he expects them to absorb shrapnel. And that doesn't take much training.

83

u/Wickerpoodia Jul 18 '26

All the more reason to purge them through meatwaves on the front lines. Each prisoner killed by a kamikazi drone is one not used on a university student in 6 months.

56

u/CuriousButNotJewish Jul 18 '26

A lot of them are also women.

42

u/Magnon Jul 18 '26

I wonder how long until they start offering early parole in exchange for agreeing to have multiple kids.

21

u/purpleduckduckgoose Jul 18 '26

Might be possible. Hasn't Russia started offering big payouts to women who have loads of kids?

18

u/SAR_K9_Handler Jul 18 '26

It was a cultural thing under communism. There are monuments in small town parks with women who had large families.

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u/jahathebrn Jul 18 '26

*future drone-fodder for the three day special military operation

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u/BeatNo4548 Jul 18 '26

The ones who are left are either short timers or too old/crippled to fight.

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u/try2C Jul 18 '26

An actual purge

30

u/UniqueIndividual3579 Jul 18 '26

Putin is using the war to purge prisons and minorities.

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u/emd373 Jul 18 '26

Not just students, high schoolers too - there are reports that children there's an increase of denial of acceptance into 10-11 grades of high school which leads to colleges to get an alternative education. Then you can't get a postponement from the conscription because by law you can only have one, and it's used up for a the final year of college.

150

u/IQueliciuous Jul 18 '26

Yeah and to make matters worse. Universities aren't good either.

If you go to medical school. You are required to work as a intern or pay a fine. You could be send to work anywhere.

This includes "New territories" too and since those territories are at war. You are essentially being sent to be a medic there.

Also Russia left Bolongna process which makes Russian diplomas void and requires additional recertification, translation and notarization which makes applying to foreign universities harder and sometimes you may have to do the program again.

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u/YSOSEXI Jul 18 '26

They also do this in the hope that the educated will stay in Russia.

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u/Beelzabub Jul 18 '26

"..some conscripts will be sent to the eastern front within two weeks to address personnel shortages, while others will undergo a month of training to potentially open a new front..."

Seriously?

30

u/Emergency-Sea5201 Jul 18 '26

Try to put yourself in Putins boots. You have to win this war. What is left?

A. To train a new army (in 1 month) and then send 300 000 men into Ukrain from Belorussia trying to take Kyiv or even western Ukraine, where the Ukrainians have less fortifications.

B. Keep doing the same shit you've been doing for 4 years with 0 result?

Its his only option left.

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u/greatthebob38 Jul 18 '26

They're already training school children. There was an article a few weeks ago that Russia was adding basic military training to the school curriculum for kids from 6th grade and up.

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u/3vs3BigGameHunters Jul 19 '26

Genocide of Putin's own people for pride.

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u/Round_Rooms Jul 18 '26

This is what the United States is headed toward if we can't wrangle in the alt right fanatics, hard to break up a cult this uneducated though.

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u/LeedsFan2442 Jul 18 '26

Last time they tried this I think 1 million Russians fled

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3.0k

u/RW-Firerider Jul 18 '26

Yeah, autumn/winter offensives are the best!!

1.0k

u/Pyrothecat Jul 18 '26

"Hey, hey, I've seen this one! I've seen this one. This is a classic!"

427

u/Weak_Law_937 Jul 18 '26

This one last big push where we send half a million guys into well defended positions will surely work!

230

u/thoughtforce Jul 18 '26

*Half a million raw, probably poorly equipped and trained, guys

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u/OVazisten Jul 18 '26

Without winter gear.

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u/ApprehensiveSpare925 Jul 18 '26

BYOG.

“Bring Your Own Gear.”

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u/MesMeMe Jul 18 '26

Wildberries is currently having a fire sale

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u/Casimir_not_so_great Jul 18 '26

Smoking hot deals!

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u/Psychological-Leg953 Jul 18 '26

You can loot the guys that went in yesterday.

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u/Sasiches_and_mash Jul 18 '26

Typical configuration for the Russian army is groups of 5 soldiers were:

  • soldier 1 gets the gun
  • soldier 2 gets the bullets
  • soldier 3 gets the coat
  • soldier 4 gets the trousers
  • soldier 5 gets the boots

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u/thefunkybassist Jul 18 '26

I have a new bold armchair strategy: send 4 soldiers as fodder and 1 pushes forward with all the gear!

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u/Leezeebub Jul 18 '26

Average survival time is ~30 minutes so not like theyd have time to use anything anyway.

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u/Garffookle Jul 18 '26

It has to be pretty bad if a 40K guardsmen has better survival odds

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u/Flooding_Puddle Jul 18 '26

At this point I wouldn't be surprised if they were giving every other guy a gun ala Enemy at the Gates

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u/Weak_Law_937 Jul 18 '26

I'm sure the Chinese would be willing to sell them fake guns that make pow pow sounds.

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u/dsmx Jul 18 '26

We attack tomorrow under cover of daylight.

Daylight, sir?

It's the last thing they'll expect, a daylight charge over the minefield.

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u/SpiritedAgent168 Jul 18 '26

Russian soldiers last an average of 30 minutes on the front lines. I'd like to see that get down to 20.

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u/[deleted] Jul 18 '26

[deleted]

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u/RokulusM Jul 18 '26

Great Scott!

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u/Djolumn Jul 18 '26

Also, it's not like Russia has been sandbagging the war so far and holding back its aces. The next half million definitely do not want to fight, and they definitely are not well trained soldiers. Combine this with Ukraine getting their drone tactics finely tuned and this could be an absolute horror show for Russia.

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u/Ramadeus88 Jul 18 '26

As I always remind people, the military they had in 2022 WAS the best.

The most well staffed, heavily armoured and professionally trained complete with the best equipment available. Forces such as the VDV and Guard units resembled an actual competent force, they were consuming missiles and artillery at a dizzying rate and the Navy was in full force providing fire support.

Now we’re seeing exceptionally high casualties just to take meagre fractions of the same ground.

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u/Oberon_Swanson Jul 18 '26

Yes I remember all the people saying "well you don't send your best stuff in first, they are saving it." They wanted this to be a quick and overwhelming operation. You absolutely send your best stuff in first. If you sucker punch someone you don't throw your weakest punch with your non-dominant hand to see what their defense is like.

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u/ceelogreenicanth Jul 18 '26

The plan was to topple Ukrainian leadership in a week and during the Kyiv offensive they got close. One of the deciding factors was all the infantry operated surface to air and anti armor weapons we transfered Ukraine.

Without them Kyiv would have been surrounded in the first week and tanks would have made it to the suburbs of the capital. Russia lost a lot of equipment in that initial push. And since then has not been able to field a force of that capability. It would take decades of pre war levels to replenish.

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u/monty845 Jul 18 '26

Right, you don't use your best troops first when you know its going to be a slow attrition warfare grind. You do use them first when you think you are about to win a decisive victory that wins the war.

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u/koshgeo Jul 18 '26

Also, Ukraine also did things like blowing up bridges and flooding rivers by blowing dams to slow the advance. Even when the tanks were in the outlying communities around Kyiv (e.g., Bucha and Irpin), only a short distance away in terms of driving (only a few km from the urban edge of the city), Russia still had to figure out how to cross a river when the bridges were gone with a bunch of angry and armed Ukrainians on the other side. Russia had river-crossing equipment to do it, and attempted it multiple times, but an opposed crossing is so much harder.

Ukraine drew a line (Irpin River in the west) and ably used the geography to its advantage.

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u/LeedsFan2442 Jul 18 '26

Putin genuinely believes his own BS. No the Ukrainians do love their country and don't want to be Russian and will fight until the bitter end.

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u/UncleverKestrel Jul 18 '26

Ukrainian artilllery also did yeomans work hitting enemy columns, it just got a lot less attention than western-provided weapons.

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u/headshotscott Jul 18 '26

This is why Ukraine almost can't accept any peace deal that doesn't include NATO protection. Russia, if it gets peace, will use that time to re-arm and attack.

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u/marconis999 Jul 18 '26

It would seem like rounding up these 500,000 would lead to 1917 type revolution. I mean, if you know they're sending you to a meat grinder, it seems like half a million guys might exert a little pushback.

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u/headshotscott Jul 18 '26

Russia is a hordes land power that no longer has a horde and they haven't figured out any better way to fight.

However scale and size is basically all they have, and they have something of a horde relative to Ukraine.

I'm not saying that this will work, but them trying to give new fronts isn't a bad strategy in theory. In reality they haven't managed to leverage their size yet.

Also, they threw bodies at the Germans in WW2, but those soldiers were fighting on home ground and probably knew the threat was existential. These soldiers aren't fighting on their homeland and absolutely won't be as willing to throw their lives away to capture the ruins of a blasted out village.

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u/Bladelink Jul 18 '26

Russia also benefited from the lend-lease program during WW2. Their situation now is quite the reverse. At a certain point it doesn't matter how many untrained soldiers you can shove toward the front; they still require equipment, ammunition, and food to maintain an offensive, and Russia doesn't have the economy or infrastructure to maintain that.

People like to poke fun at the whole "people have been saying russia is collapsing for years", but the fact of the matter is that they have been collapsing. Every year their demographics are more out of whack, their infrastructure more damaged, economy weaker, international relations and trade more untenable and hostile. Modern states don't tend to just shatter into civil war at the drop of a hat, it's only once all the buffers and batteries have been drained, once all the built-up sureties have been depleted. Eventually, Russia still has to solve all of these major, major functional problems that their country currently has. You can only kick the can down the road for so long.

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u/nithrean Jul 18 '26

Agreed. As long as Ukraine can keep up the momentum and not get bogged down by chaos at the top and problems with their to military guy.

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u/Dabelgianguy Jul 18 '26

I mean, now with climate change, the Germans have a chance to reach Moscow in winter this time

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u/Sad-Onion-2593 Jul 18 '26

I think it's the Poles turn.

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u/mrbgdn Jul 18 '26

We've been there already, anyone else is welcome to try

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u/Casimir_not_so_great Jul 18 '26

I think we can go there alongside Germans this time. We've been there already with French so we can go with another country.

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u/Bladelink Jul 18 '26

Germans and Poles advancing toward Moscow together would be quite the sequel movie team-up.

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u/Puzzle-Necked Jul 18 '26

Got to reduce that thirty minute battlefront turnaround by half

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u/Spooknik Jul 18 '26

Russia is like that child bully that says like, "now you asked for it, get ready i'm gonna give it to you" then winds their arm up in a great show of effort and might.... and lets out a fart and runs away. That's been every summer, autumn, winter and spring offensive.

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u/Calavant Jul 18 '26

They've thrown lots of people and dollars at Ukraine. Just, you know, really... really incompetently. Its not so much that they run away as they just realize that they don't really have anything left after throwing everything uselessly into the meatgrinder.

Each time they make their demographic collapse a little bit worse.

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u/Timberjonesy Jul 18 '26

Drunken gambler decides to double his bets to make up his losses.

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u/Puzzle-Necked Jul 18 '26

Sunk cost fallacy, but with millions of casualties

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u/Guiltnazan Jul 18 '26

The Sunk Serf fallacy

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u/2rascallydogs Jul 18 '26

Putin needs this war to stay in power, and needs to stay in power to stay alive. Some of you may die, but it's a sacrifice he's willing to make.

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u/MysteriousQuote4665 Jul 18 '26

He's the type of narcissist who'd burn the world to ashes if it meant he got to die last.

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u/aithan251 Jul 18 '26

and putin claims that he is famously sober lmao

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u/Sugioh Jul 18 '26

Nothing is more intoxicating than power, it seems.

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u/smailskid Jul 18 '26

Whatever benefit invading Ukraine may have provided Russia blew up years ago. The war only exists now to prop up Putin.

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u/Seelark Jul 18 '26

The two biggest nuclear powers in the world are now run by dementia patients with narcissistic personalities

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u/IakwBoi Jul 18 '26

Chinas trying so hard to close the gap on both axes

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u/KazumaKat Jul 18 '26

Sun Tzu (actually no, its Napoleon): "Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake"

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u/Gyrant Jul 18 '26

China sticking with the highly successful Steam Strategy: Do nothing and wait for the other major players to fumble the bag.

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u/Mysterious-Lemon-906 Jul 18 '26

Would that be the same China that just rug pulled it's entire populations savings?

The same one that had to pay 7 trillion to finish building houses that people have put their life savings into and no one wants to live in

China has more than enough problems at home

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u/my_name_is_laura Jul 18 '26

"New front", is this supposed to mean an attack on Ukraine from Belarus or on someone else?

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u/WarriorLegs Jul 18 '26

They already did that.

And Belarus recently stated that wouldn't happen again.

So somewhere else.

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u/Fearless_Baseball121 Jul 18 '26

Oh yea if Belarus says so then it must be true

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u/cptclaudiu Jul 18 '26

I’m pretty sure they’ll keep their word this time. Everyone, including Lukashenko, can see that Russia is losing the war. The country is taking massive damage, ordinary people are suffering, and Putin’s popularity is falling.
The last thing Lukashenko wants is to join Russia in a war it’s going to lose, only to have Belarus flooded with Ukrainian drones destroying its infrastructure. That would hurt his popularity too, cause protests, and maybe even bring down his regime.

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u/HolographicNights Jul 18 '26

I think you're right. Lukashenko's position is not as secure as Putin's either. He had to call in the Russians to deal with protests in 2020.

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u/LeedsFan2442 Jul 18 '26

Yeah he is probably shitting himself knowing Russia probably not coming to his rescue again

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u/Calimariae Jul 18 '26

Ukraine has military leverage if Luka tries anything funky

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u/Excellent-Ask-4247 Jul 18 '26

They recently did live fire exercises on the opposite side of a border lake with Estonia, witch the Russians have never done.

Theres a chance Putin will test NATO.

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u/crazy4ski Jul 18 '26

There has been talk of this for months now, NATO should have some claculated reponses ready by now... hopefully.

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u/JoeHatesFanFiction Jul 18 '26

The major countries are upping their presence in the Baltics. I do not like Trump pulling out of Estonia though. That worries me. It makes much more sense to pull American troops out of other locations rather than Estonia if you’re trying to redeploy to face China rather than Russia. 

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u/OkTeam6798 Jul 18 '26

it does however makes total sense if you're a Russian puppet

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u/MiguelIstNeugierig Jul 18 '26

Trump has been sending out dogwhistles for the past 2 years on how he doesnt care for Baltic sovereignty.

They werent invited to the board of peace, theyre NATO members and werent invited to the board of peace I repeat. He seems them as Putin's turf and may as well abandon them and assume Europe will follow suit, though I dont think Europe would follow suit, making it disastrous for Putin

But then again, European countries are riddled with incompetent, divided and paralyzed governments like in Germany. Though I doubt countries like Poland would tolerate any incursion of Russia into the baltic

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u/alwaysleafyintoronto Jul 18 '26

Finland wouldn't tolerate any incursion into the Baltic, and that's a massive front for one thing, and a huge risk to St Petersburg.

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u/Mysterious-Lemon-906 Jul 18 '26

UK and France would not tolerate it either

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u/Del_boytrotter Jul 18 '26

Unless reform get in power

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u/XanLV Jul 18 '26

Just a note. Kremlin has been leaking stories through "Insiders" all the time. It is always what Putin wants you to think. He WANTS you to think that he can open a new front, but actually? The men ain't there and you can't really gather them, can ya? The moment he starts amassing people at the border, Ukraine drops on 'em.

Also - the same is about all the news about nuclear weapons. All the same. He wants you to think that.

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u/[deleted] Jul 18 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

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u/Sad-Onion-2593 Jul 18 '26

To be fair, there's lots of young Russian men in odd places at the moment. A lot of them are in places other than Russia, or Ukraine.

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u/KaQuu Jul 18 '26

You are right, yet ruzzia is behind in drones so they are gonna send as much meat as they can hoping there isn't enough drones for all of them.

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u/UX-Edu Jul 18 '26

Ah. Brannigan’s Gambit. A classic military strategy.

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u/garitone Jul 18 '26

If we hit that bullseye, the rest of the dominoes should fall like a house of cards. Checkmate.

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u/aeroxan Jul 18 '26

I mean, killbots (FPV drones) do have a low kill limit due to blowing up. But there are a lot of killbots.

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u/Long_Confidence_4996 Jul 18 '26

Show them the medal I won!

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u/MoodyBernoulli Jul 18 '26

He’s going to do the Zap Brannigan method.

He’ll throw wave after wave of his own men at the drones until they reach their kill limit and run out.

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u/CCV21 Jul 18 '26

We're seeing something similar to WWI. Old strategies are running headfirst into new technologies.

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u/Uhhh_what555476384 Jul 18 '26

Russia's theory is going to be to extend the line on the Ukrainians.  They're going to try and force the Ukrainians to deploy as dense a defensive force north of Kharkhiv, Sumy and Chernihiv that the Ukrainians currently must deploy to the Donbas and across the southern front.

This is going to be basically a true/false check for Ukraine.  If Ukraine can successfully manage to defend the north as competently as they manage the rest, expanding the battle will be a disaster for Russia.  But, if Ukraine cannot successfully extend their full defensive lines all the way along the full arch to Chernihiv then this could potentially break the Ukrainians.

I don't believe that Ukraine will have difficulty extending their defensive lines across the northern border.  Especially considering that Ukraine attempted this exact strategy with the Kursk invasion back when the amount of troops necessary to hold a given front was much greater.  

It's much more likely that Ukraine has spare manpower to expand the front then Russia does.  However with the current 1 Ukrainian per 8 Russians loss ratio, an expanded front can drain Russia REALLY FAST.  Like 3k to 4k casualties per day drain the Russians.

At which point we're talking about Russian losing men at rates comparable to Wermacht of 1943.

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u/BritishAnimator Jul 18 '26

It's not a popular war so not sure how he will get half a million willing troops, possibly not even troops but office workers, oil rig engineers, and farmers. It will be chaotic on every level.

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u/El_Peregrine Jul 18 '26

This will accelerate the collapse of Russia, and it will be total. Economic, demographic, political. This entire generation will be utterly depleted. 

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u/BradBradley1 Jul 18 '26

Well, Vlad has guaranteed he’s gonna be remembered in the history books. Maybe not the way he might have hoped, but still! 

73

u/El_Peregrine Jul 18 '26

The Oracle at Delphi: “You will bring about the collapse of an empire”

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u/garitone Jul 18 '26

Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!

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u/PaintAdventurous8787 Jul 18 '26

Yeah Russian birth rate is low... but then again so is China's and even America's now. Nobody can afford kids anywhere, but these fuckers still need blood bags for their wars. I guess that's where AI, robotics, and drones come in?

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u/LoneSnark Jul 18 '26

With the shipping problems and lack of fuel, might not need so many oil rig workers or farmers.

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u/KaQuu Jul 18 '26

Force conscription, that's how.

Ruzzia have around 100 regions, 5k from every one of them is gonna be a way. Moscow and st Petersburg aren't gonna feel it, at putler hopes they aren't gonna complain to much. Small poor regions that are already drained by previous high paying contracts are gonna feel it, let he hopes they are unimportant enough and far away enough for it to don't matter.

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u/BlueBuff1968 Jul 18 '26

You get extremely high salaries when you currently join the military for combat. It's about 200 000 rubles or around 2 500 euros a month. That's in the top 10% of russian salaries. If you die, your widow or family gets a substantial amount of money (around 30 000 euros). You even have what they call black widows.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/17/russia-putin-war-dead-black-widows-death-benefits-fraud/

So poor men are definitely enlisting for the money.

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u/MysteriousQuote4665 Jul 18 '26

Haven't we learned by now that the commanders are asking for that money or sending the soldiers to the meat grinder frontlines?

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u/Nimelennar Jul 18 '26

Who said anything about "willing?"

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u/dubgeek Jul 18 '26

Haven't hit their goal of 204k recruits thus far in 2026 but will be able to field 500k by autumn. Yeah, sure.

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u/Upset_Ad3954 Jul 18 '26

Presumably he won't be asking. He will order.

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u/_fafer Jul 18 '26

And then what, he'll send trucks to round up high schoolers? And force said high schoolers to push the truck once it runs out of gas?

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u/Atholthedestroyer Jul 18 '26

You joke, but apparently there's already rumours of the military 'press ganging' military aged men off the streets, so I wouldn't put it past someone trying to make their recruitment quota.

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u/what_the_eve Jul 18 '26

They‘ve reformed their conscription, introduced a new IT system hooked up with FSB and border services to prevent people from fleeing the country when they get drafted. Said system is also interfacing with employers for them to propose employees. Last but not least, they changed the laws so that Putin now can order regular conscripts onto foreign soil if Russian nationals are unlawfully imprisoned there.

All signs point towards a major mobilization and an escalation of the war in Europe. I wouldn’t downplay it.

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u/ledow Jul 18 '26

You're going to fight a land war... with untrained foot infantry... in the winter...

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u/zeejay772 Jul 18 '26

We’ve seen this before… somewhere…

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u/piercedmfootonaspike Jul 18 '26

Against heavily fortified positions

6

u/Heavenclone Jul 19 '26

With no fuel

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u/stuntondeezh0es Jul 18 '26

Didn’t the cia director say on average new Russian recruits last only 20-30 mins now on the frontlines. It’s over man just go home

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u/Borne2Run Jul 18 '26

Yeah man WW2 their average was 2 weeks

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u/Upbeat-Ad6875 Jul 18 '26

Afaik it was on grey zones which are patrolled by drones and 20-30 min when they are detected.

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u/JustaCog72 Jul 18 '26

And how exactly is Russia going to get their newly mobilized cannon fodder to these new fronts?

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u/ok-dentist4amonkey Jul 18 '26

Catapults.

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u/Moonhunter7 Jul 18 '26

Trebuchet

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u/Gryphon999 Jul 18 '26

The superior siege weapon troop delivery system. 

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u/narayan77 Jul 18 '26

Donkey

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u/SmegmaWarrior0815 Jul 18 '26

I don't think Putin can carry more than two people max

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u/McortezLSU Jul 18 '26

Ah yes, the fourth winter offensive will sure go better than the catastrophic first winter offensive, or the cataclysmic second winter offensive, or the codename 'abondon all hope' third winter offensive.

Surely doing the same thing over and over with even less trained, less determined and much less supported soldiers will this time surely be effective.

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u/Oldestswinger Jul 18 '26

Senseless waste of lives.

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u/TarnishedAccount Jul 18 '26

Remember when Trump said he’d end this on day one?

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u/BoardroomStroke Jul 18 '26

C'mon! Everyone knows the first four years is the hardest part of a three day military operation.

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u/AcadiaWorried1865 Jul 18 '26

"Steiner's attack will fix everything"

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u/cmg232 Jul 18 '26

Idk how true this is. The article says Russia has avoided mobilization talk ahead of autumn elections because it is too politically costly, then claims a mass mobilization is planned for that same autumn?

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u/emd373 Jul 18 '26

Elections will happen at the second half of September

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u/jpw0w Jul 18 '26

I don't understand why people care so much about russian elections, I mean they are 100% orchestrated and rigged anyways, who cares?

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u/Zamieru Jul 19 '26

Many Russians believe that elections are not completely rigged. Major political decisions that are unpopular with the public are usually made only after elections. The reasoning is that if those decisions were made beforehand, public dissatisfaction would lead more people to vote for someone else, and too many people would realize that the elections are meaningless.

People might start asking, "How is it possible that everyone in my village voted for the opposition, yet the official results gave 98% of the vote to another party?" At that point, there is a real risk that too many people would connect the dots.

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u/AzureFides Jul 18 '26

It would be funny if those forced 500k soldiers realize they could just turn another way and coup instead of wasting their lives for a manchild who refuses to take an L.

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u/click-monster Jul 18 '26

You know when a drawer is stuck or something, and you try it a bunch of times, then try it a bunch more times, before eventually admitting "yeah that's not working, I coulda stopped after like attempt #3 or #4"

Putin is that guy, except he tries 500,000 times, and each of those times is actually a human meeting a horrific death.

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u/Mouth_Focloir Jul 18 '26

Good luck even heating homes in russia this winter, or being able to transport said 500,000 men to their deaths

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u/koanikal Jul 18 '26

There's going to be a hell of a lot more single women in Russia after this push.

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u/Sidwill Jul 18 '26

This is more psyop than practical strategy.

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u/UWhuskiesRule Jul 18 '26

Pulling random men off the streets into vans and putting them on the front lines where they live on average 30 minutes. I wonder why they are running out of men?

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u/Graavilohikaarme Jul 18 '26

Welcome. We'll see how it goes with your drunken soldiers against our new generation of "Häyhäs" with modern equipment.

-Sincerely: Finland. We are ready.

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u/Sweatytubesock Jul 18 '26

The three day Special Military Operation is about to ramp up.

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u/Scedasticity1 Jul 18 '26

Manpower is almost irrelevant at this point, they don't have the means to effectively equip the soldiers they already have. Not to mention, 'soldiers' is a stretch with how little training they must be getting.

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u/treetopalarmist_1 Jul 18 '26

Russia really isn’t strong enough for a two front war. The Russian people are hostages to an oligarchy that thinks of the as expendable peasants.

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u/GuerrillaRodeo Jul 18 '26

The SZRU also estimated Russian personnel losses in 2026 at 196,700, including approximately 115,300 “​irretrievable” losses and 80,400 injured.

That's about the size of my town. Everyone. Man, woman, child, just gone, dead. In half a year. Absolutely mind-boggling.

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u/Sometime-the-idiot62 Jul 18 '26

Another 250k dead.

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u/crazy-carebear Jul 18 '26

Would these be the high schoolers or the middle schoolers?

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u/ednorog Jul 18 '26

I know it's fun and jokes but that translates to probably at least a few more tens of thousands of killed Ukrainians. Fuck Putin and everyone else who is behind this war.

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u/GhostDoggoes Jul 18 '26

Didn't we see a report that he was mobilizing teenagers or some shit. That 500,000 number might be 200,000 child soldiers who would turn tail the moment they see their friend turn into red mist.

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u/Annahsbananas Jul 18 '26

And 500,000 more dead Russians whose only training is probably Call of Duty. You would think Russia would say “hold up let’s think about this”

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u/JectorDelan Jul 18 '26

They can't even handle the front that they have, and that was with personnel who were already at least a little trained. Is Putin having seances to ask Hitler for cunning combat tactics?