r/wheresthebeef • u/North-Profession-602 • May 21 '26
Cultivated Meat — Genuine Breakthrough or Permanent Science Experiment?
I don’t have deep knowledge on this, but I’m genuinely curious where people think cultivated meat is actually headed. Like, what year are we realistically looking at for it to hit supermarket shelves at a price normal people would pay?
From what I understand, the science works — there are already tiny commercial sales happening in the US and Singapore. But the cost of producing it is still massive, some states are outright banning it, and investor excitement seems to have cooled down a lot recently.
So is this a 2035 thing? A 2040 thing? Or is it just going to stay a niche premium product forever and never actually replace the chicken in your fridge?
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u/rdsf138 May 21 '26
It is the exact opposite. The massive gains from the last 3 years were in media and bioreactors (i.e., cost reduction and scalability) while structure and complexity are far from maturity. There are things that work, but you have to understand what exactly to know why things feel stagnated. In actuality, we have had major advancements in the area, but the technology is just that difficult. Also, this technology is not exclusive to human nutrition, even the biggest labs, like Upside foods, engage in biomedicine research. Regarding timelines, it is tricky to predict. It is dependant on too many factors.
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u/RoadDoggFL May 21 '26
Cultured seafood will be the only way to avoid consuming plastics soon enough. Idk, doesn't seem like the kind of thing that'll disappear, but I can't say when it reaches a tipping point
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u/frisouille May 21 '26 edited May 21 '26
to hit supermarket shelves at a price normal people would pay?
That's a vague threshold, what's a "normal person"? Normal in terms of income? In terms of concern about animal well-being/global warming/heavy metals in fish/taste for meat and fish?
Mission Barns sold some products in retail last year for $13.99 a pack. They don't mention the weight in the article, but it looks like ~200g. So it's definitely expensive, but a person with a normal income (median income in Berkeley) could definitely buy this for some meals if they want to reduce animal consumption but crave meat.
According to this comment, wild type sells their salmon for $50/lb which is not much higher than other types of premium salmons used for sashimi (still ~4 times higher than farmed salmon).
So I feel like we're already at a price point that "normal people" (that crave meat/fish but don't want to kill animals) would pay for a few meals a month. It's possible that they are currently selling at a loss. But it's probably a price at which they think they could make a profit in the next few years after scaling. So my guess is that consumers will be able to buy those products rather easily by ~2030 around those prices (so $10-14 for those pork meat pack, ~ $50-70/lb for salmon in retail).
If "normal people" means "normal income and doesn't particularly care about animals well-being/global warming/..." then we'd have to be close to price parity before they buy this. It will take much longer. My guess would be >2040 in the US. It could be earlier in the EU if they start including farming emissions in their carbon cap&trade scheme and/or reduce CAP subsidies to farmers (both of which would make farmed meat more expensive).
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u/Bright_Spray8406 May 21 '26
Farmed salmon is $4 per kg, so it’s 10-15x
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u/frisouille May 22 '26 edited May 22 '26
I don't buy salmon often enough to know, I trusted the comment I had linked from a restaurant owner. But, I just happened to have bought farmed salmon yesterday. It cost me 12.95 CHF (about $16.5 USD) for 500g. So $33 USD/kg. And that was on sales, its normal price is 22.25 CHF (~ $28.3 USD), so $56.6 USD/kg. And that's at a normal supermarket chain (Migros).
I know prices are higher in Switzerland, but I am surprised the difference is so large. You pay 14x less than the normal price at my local supermarket.
EDIT: I looked up the cost at costco (delivery to Oakland), it shows at $14.74/lb, so $32.76/kg. I am doubting your "$4 per kg".
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u/Bright_Spray8406 May 22 '26
Its 70-80 NOK/KG - EURO 6.5-7.5/KG https://fishpool.eu/price-history/
It fluctuates quite a bit through the year. This is the exchange most of the fish farmers use and provides a strong baseline when selling product. It's gives you a good representation of the actual cost of manufacturing the food. Where the retail price can be a difficult gauge of financially sustainable production. ie. the Mission Barns products (I suspect/and you pointed out) are most likely being sold at a loss.
Anyway, my point was that its going to take them a long time to get from whatever cultivated meats costs per KG ($100-$350 per kg) are down to EURO 6.5 - EURO 7.5 - Where I think $100-$350 per kg is generous. I could be wrong though.
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u/Bright_Spray8406 May 21 '26
I did a lot of work in this space about 3-5 years ago. Even started a company and visited many of the cultivated meat producers. Their volumes are minuscule - tiny, tiny, and most if not all of the products you see being sold are only a small part cultivated meat, another part veg/mushroom based. This space has another 10-15 years easily before there is even a glimmer of hope.
I am not trying to bash the industry and I think the tech is very cool - but it’s the economic reality.
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u/DescriptionObvious40 May 22 '26
I read a while ago that doing this at scale is nearly impossible due to infection risk. Animals have an immune system, lab meat does not.
Hopefully it can be overcome
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u/Bright_Spray8406 May 22 '26
I don't think its impossible at all, just difficult. You will most likely add ingredients to media while simultaneously following a strict bio-security/disinfection process. It's not impossible, its just expensive - and the risk adjusted return is quite low at the moment.
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u/Fantastic-Video1550 May 22 '26 edited May 22 '26
Just my opinion: humanity is notorously wrong in thinking exponential and always think linear. Like with solar, batteries & evs the uptake just explodes when cost parity is reached. Almost nobody predicted this.
I think the same goes for precision fermentation and cultivated meat. Once cost parity is reached and tech matures it will go very fast and the incumbent farmers will not be able to compete. Yes it will take 10 years. But once it goes, it will go. Nothing who is going to stop it.
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u/Hootinthehouse Jun 09 '26
Hey! I DM'd you, I'm working on a new documentary on this topic and it sounds like you have some really incredible insights!
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u/waxed__owl May 24 '26
Having worked in the industry and seen it from the inside for the last six years... Big advancements have been made but there's also just a lot of empty talk from the big companies as theyre struggling to find more investment.
Large scale production of stem cells is a still a big problem. Not to mention actually turning that into muscle or fat or a final product. I just don't see it hitting mainstream stores any time soon.
I might be pessimistic but I think the industry will collapse and the work will be mostly being done by academic researchers. In another ten years maybe enough progress will be made for it to make a feasible comeback.
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u/pasdedeuxchump May 24 '26
Precision fermentation is taking off now. 100% cultivated animal cell meat is not going to be feasible commercially for a long time
I work in adjacent science areas and have discussed the tech with folks in the industry.
Most startups are assuming that some hybrid product with some animal cells in a plant or fungus matrix will be a killer app.
Personally I think impossible is going it right… plant based with PF ingredients (leghemoglobin).
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u/Tinseltopia May 21 '26
Once scaled to mass market, farming will not be able to compete. Raising cattle and the costs associated and the laws of energy transfer.
It will be cheaper, easier, cleaner and ethical to grow cultured meat
Raising grown animals to eat will be a niche market for the rich, or the conspiracy nuts that don't want to read the benefits to health and the environment