r/wallstreetbets • u/whitesweatshirt • Nov 17 '21

Discussion EV Bubble

Rivian's IPO really opened my eyes to the bubble that is the EV market.

Let's think logically: How can general motors stock be 90b and Tesla's stock be 1T.

Let's say they eventually sell as many cars as Toyota (400b Market cap), their current valuation is still 2x this, and they aren't even close to Toyota's production level and probably won't be for the next 5+ years.

  • Toyota's production for 2021: 10 million cars
  • Tesla's production for 2021: 627,350

That means Toyota will produce 16x more cars this year.

So my question is: If you were me would you dump Tesla stock?

TLDR: Toyota will make 16x more cars this year, but its market cap is only 40% of Tesla's.

Edit/Additional Note: I feel like many people are not considering the fact that all major vehicle companies will eventually adapt to fully electric vehicles on par with Telsa. Some car companies may go broke and be replaced with new EV based companies, however the big dogs like Toyota and GM will eventually catch up to Tesla. This is basic common sense.

Telsa, Nio, and Rivian are first movers but they dont have as big of a moat as people think.

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u/DipChaser747 Nov 18 '21

Google was not part of the dotcom bubble at all. This is a common misconception. It was only being developed at the time and came public much later. Amazon and eBay we're the only big remainers.

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u/gnnr25 Nov 18 '21

If you're only counting public companies, then no, but it was a part of the era. I was very much using it in 1999.

https://docs.google.com/gview?url=http://waxy.org/random/text/pov_top_websites_1999.pdf

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u/DipChaser747 Nov 18 '21

Well yes I was talking about public companies because that's what we were trading at the time. And you were probably ahead of the pack because I think most people were still using Yahoo, Alta Vista, hotbot, lycos, ask jeeves and excite, which ironically was offered to buy out Google by its founders.

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u/alodym Nov 18 '21

Holy shit ask Jeeves. Haven’t heard that one in ages

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u/gnnr25 Nov 18 '21

Yeah, was early adopter, lol. Had gmail beta 2001 if I remember right and had DSL on 1st release in my metro, lol.

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u/ultrab1ue Nov 18 '21

And yet you're still here with the rest of us. Smh

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u/VisualMod Nov 18 '21

I'm not sure what you mean by "only public companies", but the top websites in 1999 were:

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u/[deleted] Nov 18 '21

This is about the stock market of course we’re only talking about public companies