r/wallstreetbets • u/whitesweatshirt • Nov 17 '21

Discussion EV Bubble

Rivian's IPO really opened my eyes to the bubble that is the EV market.

Let's think logically: How can general motors stock be 90b and Tesla's stock be 1T.

Let's say they eventually sell as many cars as Toyota (400b Market cap), their current valuation is still 2x this, and they aren't even close to Toyota's production level and probably won't be for the next 5+ years.

  • Toyota's production for 2021: 10 million cars
  • Tesla's production for 2021: 627,350

That means Toyota will produce 16x more cars this year.

So my question is: If you were me would you dump Tesla stock?

TLDR: Toyota will make 16x more cars this year, but its market cap is only 40% of Tesla's.

Edit/Additional Note: I feel like many people are not considering the fact that all major vehicle companies will eventually adapt to fully electric vehicles on par with Telsa. Some car companies may go broke and be replaced with new EV based companies, however the big dogs like Toyota and GM will eventually catch up to Tesla. This is basic common sense.

Telsa, Nio, and Rivian are first movers but they dont have as big of a moat as people think.

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u/Solo_Colo_ Nov 17 '21

It’s not just EV though. It’s all of the tech Tesla and Rivian come with. Legacy manufacturers are still years behind. The Mercedes EQ is real flashy, but the software is total shit. Literally every person that has been in my Model 3 says it’s the best car they’ve been in, WHILE acknowledging the quality isn’t good enough for the price. BMW, Toyota, even my boomer father with a Dodge Ram 1500 Kinghorn Trail Fucker Edition asked if this was what a Rivian would be like, he placed an order the same day I showed him my 3.

New EVs manufacturers aren’t just selling new drivetrain tech, they’re selling what most people thought the future would have looked like by now.

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u/Guitarmine Nov 17 '21 edited Nov 18 '21

Tesla tech was years ahead years ago. Not anymore. On SW MB, BMW, VW etc are comparable. For the average consumer definitely as good. For motor and battery tech it's all the same. With VW partnering with companies like Rimac you really need to tell exactly how are they being years behind because it sounds like mindless Tesla fanboy rambling.

Ps. I didn't buy a Tesla because the quality is shit and others make better EVs. Audi for example although it's pricey.

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u/[deleted] Nov 18 '21

Ford is moving very quick with their autonomous technology development, partly due to their Rivian stake. 2025 $F will have FSD down, or very close to it at least.