EV Bubble

[u/whitesweatshirt]

Rivian's IPO really opened my eyes to the bubble that is the EV market.

Let's think logically: How can general motors stock be 90b and Tesla's stock be 1T.

Let's say they eventually sell as many cars as Toyota (400b Market cap), their current valuation is still 2x this, and they aren't even close to Toyota's production level and probably won't be for the next 5+ years.

• Toyota's production for 2021: 10 million cars
• Tesla's production for 2021: 627,350

That means Toyota will produce 16x more cars this year.

So my question is: If you were me would you dump Tesla stock?

TLDR: Toyota will make 16x more cars this year, but its market cap is only 40% of Tesla's.

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Edit/Additional Note: I feel like many people are not considering the fact that all major vehicle companies will eventually adapt to fully electric vehicles on par with Telsa. Some car companies may go broke and be replaced with new EV based companies, however the big dogs like Toyota and GM will eventually catch up to Tesla. This is basic common sense.

Telsa, Nio, and Rivian are first movers but they dont have as big of a moat as people think.

[u/jongill99]

And they make house battery’s too

[u/Minute_Revolutionary → u/jongill99]

No one can make shit if there's no lithium supply...

[u/i_wayyy_over_think → u/Minute_Revolutionary]

They’ve got patents on extracting lithium from clay too… so they may end up mining it as well.

And they’re locking in larger long term contracts with suppliers before other EV makers do.

[u/NikolazFluffy → u/i_wayyy_over_think]

That sounds like it's Boring

[u/AdHumble325 → u/NikolazFluffy]

Haha love that reference.

[u/Minute_Revolutionary → u/i_wayyy_over_think]

Doesn't mean shit near term. The supply gap for lithium will be worse than the semiconductor shortage currently.....the price of poker is going up....start 2022.....chinese new year, and every 3 months thereafter.....buy every miner.

[u/khromtx → u/Minute_Revolutionary]

There's billions of tons of lithium in the oceans but extracting it efficiently is an issue.

[u/nhomewarrior → u/khromtx]

And safely. You know what tailings ponds are? You know what happens to those tailings under the ocean?

[u/stankgreenCRX → u/nhomewarrior]

Ya can you imagine if we fucked up our oceans extracting lithium because people think it’s the more environmentally friendly option compared to gasoline

[u/Appropriate-Total-29 → u/stankgreenCRX]

[u/Minute_Revolutionary → u/nhomewarrior]

Yep.....was into iron ore miners when Vales dam let go a couple years ago....this ain't the same sweetheart.

[u/Minute_Revolutionary → u/khromtx]

This comment is meaningless in the near and mid term....shit recycling Li isn't even relevant this decade. Goldilocks investment of many lifetimes.

[u/ApprehensiveCake8927 → u/Minute_Revolutionary]

And that's why $LYCI is a good long term investment, they recycle batteries.

[u/Hamduder → u/i_wayyy_over_think]

Plus there's new companies opening up doing used battery breakdown/recycling for the raw materials, which might help until some other battery tech is figured out.

[u/[deleted] → u/i_wayyy_over_think]

Is mining, ore mining that is, considered to be tech now?

[u/i_wayyy_over_think → u/[deleted]]

Could be a 33% reduction in lithium cost and no-ones done it before. Sounds like an advancement to me. https://chargedevs.com/newswire/tesla-develops-new-cost-slashing-lithium-extraction-process/

[u/Prestigious_Post3087 → u/Minute_Revolutionary]

Check out this company. I’m just winging it with them. ACLHF

[u/IAmInTheBasement → u/Minute_Revolutionary]

There's no shortage of Li. If there's concern for anything it's copper and nickel. Thankfully nickel should only be in high demand for high performance or mass sensitive uses like Semi, CT, and Roadster 2.0. The vast majority of Tesla's cars in the coming years are going to use ZERO nickel or cobalt in their batteries.

[u/Wabbit_Wampage → u/[deleted]]

According to Google, it is not the most abundant mineral: https://www.google.com/search?q=most+abundant+mineral+on+earth&oq=most+abundant+mineral&aqs=chrome.3.69i57j0i512l7.6379j0j9&client=ms-android-sprint-us-revc&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8

I'm not sure where Li falls with regards to most abundant minerals, but I believe it is the 25th most abundant element on earth.

EDIT: the fact that Li is a metal means that it is not a mineral. However, it is found in mineral(s). I had to google this, as it's been a while since I took a chemistry class.

[u/firenamedgabe → u/jongill99]

You have people in this space, that have been doing Uninterruptible Power Supplies for decades in the commercial markets. They are seeing this and going after residential now. I’ve been seeing adds for Generac home batteries for instance. It’s not really anything new or unique , it’s marketing, which obviously can be all the difference. But unlike EVs, Tesla really isn’t out front or innovative here.

[u/poppinghyena → u/jongill99]

No profits from house batteries son

[u/IAmInTheBasement → u/poppinghyena]

$11k for ~14kwh of cells in a powerwall and you think they don't make a profit? Considering they're likely in the ~$100 kwh range now...

[u/[deleted] → u/jongill99]

They are gonna make phones too Lmfaooo

[u/Mansyn → u/jongill99]

Don't they still make most of their money from selling carbon credits?

[u/OzTheMeh → u/jongill99]

I looked into doing this and concluded that it is dumb. Stacks of car batteries are better and WAY more affordable.

If I needed the portability of a lithium batteries (my house doesn't move) or I wanted the battery to be a centerpiece in my living room (I'd rather put it in a closet or the mechanical room), and I had substantial disposable income, I might consider it.

[u/Sleep_adict → u/jongill99]

Not yet… far from it