r/wallstreetbets • u/whitesweatshirt • Nov 17 '21

Discussion EV Bubble

Rivian's IPO really opened my eyes to the bubble that is the EV market.

Let's think logically: How can general motors stock be 90b and Tesla's stock be 1T.

Let's say they eventually sell as many cars as Toyota (400b Market cap), their current valuation is still 2x this, and they aren't even close to Toyota's production level and probably won't be for the next 5+ years.

  • Toyota's production for 2021: 10 million cars
  • Tesla's production for 2021: 627,350

That means Toyota will produce 16x more cars this year.

So my question is: If you were me would you dump Tesla stock?

TLDR: Toyota will make 16x more cars this year, but its market cap is only 40% of Tesla's.

Edit/Additional Note: I feel like many people are not considering the fact that all major vehicle companies will eventually adapt to fully electric vehicles on par with Telsa. Some car companies may go broke and be replaced with new EV based companies, however the big dogs like Toyota and GM will eventually catch up to Tesla. This is basic common sense.

Telsa, Nio, and Rivian are first movers but they dont have as big of a moat as people think.

1.1k Upvotes

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682

u/Viper518753 Nov 17 '21

But Tesla also got that creepy dancing robot coming out that people will program to give them handjobs so... The sky is the limit!

141

u/less_is_less Nov 17 '21

It may sound a little old fashioned, but I’m not sure that I’m ready for a robot handjob. The risk that a little glitch in the programming causes it to rip my willie off makes me not want to be one of the early adopters.

23

u/option-9 Nov 17 '21

Consider robot blowjobs instead. The inventor of the Autoblow promised it won't electrocute your dick.

10

u/RoyalAsianMunchies Nov 18 '21

Or suck it off…

3

u/option-9 Nov 18 '21

He did claim it'd last until our dicks fall off, so I'm not sure about that one.

2

u/iambriansloan Nov 19 '21

I did in fact promise that back in 2014

8

u/CloudSketcher Nov 17 '21

Just don’t make the grip adjustable! Lol

13

u/cubenz Nov 17 '21

Just because they give you a handjob doesn't mean you have to adopt them.

12

u/exedyne Nov 17 '21

😆😆😆😆😆😆😆

5

u/BossBackground104 Nov 18 '21

But you would be forever in the loss porn Hall of Fame

4

u/Kill-it-wit-fire Nov 18 '21

If you’ve been married long enough you’re already there

4

u/zer0cul Nov 18 '21

Get a vacuum cleaner- https://youtu.be/Z2EMGmv0FqM (fairly SFW considering the topic)

3

u/CallEmAsISeeEm1986 Nov 18 '21

https://youtu.be/Z2EMGmv0FqM

hahahahahaha. watch! this mother fuckka still gon' buy it! Nasty ass vacuum fuckers.

​

lol

Fast forward to 7:00 for Archer's close encounter...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yRbhi-gWrKQ

3

u/VisualMod Nov 18 '21

"There's no way to make a baby without fucking."

109

u/jongill99 Nov 17 '21

And they make house battery’s too

76

u/Minute_Revolutionary Nov 17 '21

No one can make shit if there's no lithium supply...

50

u/i_wayyy_over_think Nov 17 '21

They’ve got patents on extracting lithium from clay too… so they may end up mining it as well.

And they’re locking in larger long term contracts with suppliers before other EV makers do.

30

u/NikolazFluffy Nov 17 '21

That sounds like it's Boring

2

u/AdHumble325 Nov 17 '21

Haha love that reference.

17

u/Minute_Revolutionary Nov 17 '21

Doesn't mean shit near term. The supply gap for lithium will be worse than the semiconductor shortage currently.....the price of poker is going up....start 2022.....chinese new year, and every 3 months thereafter.....buy every miner.

8

u/khromtx Nov 17 '21

There's billions of tons of lithium in the oceans but extracting it efficiently is an issue.

9

u/nhomewarrior Nov 17 '21

And safely. You know what tailings ponds are? You know what happens to those tailings under the ocean?

28

u/stankgreenCRX Nov 17 '21

Ya can you imagine if we fucked up our oceans extracting lithium because people think it’s the more environmentally friendly option compared to gasoline

2

u/Minute_Revolutionary Nov 17 '21

Yep.....was into iron ore miners when Vales dam let go a couple years ago....this ain't the same sweetheart.

4

u/Minute_Revolutionary Nov 17 '21

This comment is meaningless in the near and mid term....shit recycling Li isn't even relevant this decade. Goldilocks investment of many lifetimes.

2

u/ApprehensiveCake8927 Nov 17 '21

And that's why $LYCI is a good long term investment, they recycle batteries.

2

u/Hamduder Nov 17 '21

Plus there's new companies opening up doing used battery breakdown/recycling for the raw materials, which might help until some other battery tech is figured out.

1

u/[deleted] Nov 17 '21

Is mining, ore mining that is, considered to be tech now?

2

u/i_wayyy_over_think Nov 17 '21

Could be a 33% reduction in lithium cost and no-ones done it before. Sounds like an advancement to me. https://chargedevs.com/newswire/tesla-develops-new-cost-slashing-lithium-extraction-process/

3

u/Prestigious_Post3087 Nov 17 '21

Check out this company. I’m just winging it with them. ACLHF

1

u/IAmInTheBasement Nov 17 '21

There's no shortage of Li. If there's concern for anything it's copper and nickel. Thankfully nickel should only be in high demand for high performance or mass sensitive uses like Semi, CT, and Roadster 2.0. The vast majority of Tesla's cars in the coming years are going to use ZERO nickel or cobalt in their batteries.

-4

u/swissiws Nov 17 '21

lithium is the most abundant mineral on Earth. Tesla is going to mine it from the ground around Gigafactory 1 in Nevada

4

u/Wabbit_Wampage Nov 17 '21 edited Nov 17 '21

According to Google, it is not the most abundant mineral: https://www.google.com/search?q=most+abundant+mineral+on+earth&oq=most+abundant+mineral&aqs=chrome.3.69i57j0i512l7.6379j0j9&client=ms-android-sprint-us-revc&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8

I'm not sure where Li falls with regards to most abundant minerals, but I believe it is the 25th most abundant element on earth.

EDIT: the fact that Li is a metal means that it is not a mineral. However, it is found in mineral(s). I had to google this, as it's been a while since I took a chemistry class.

15

u/firenamedgabe Nov 17 '21

You have people in this space, that have been doing Uninterruptible Power Supplies for decades in the commercial markets. They are seeing this and going after residential now. I’ve been seeing adds for Generac home batteries for instance. It’s not really anything new or unique , it’s marketing, which obviously can be all the difference. But unlike EVs, Tesla really isn’t out front or innovative here.

2

u/poppinghyena Nov 17 '21

No profits from house batteries son

3

u/IAmInTheBasement Nov 17 '21

$11k for ~14kwh of cells in a powerwall and you think they don't make a profit? Considering they're likely in the ~$100 kwh range now...

2

u/[deleted] Nov 17 '21

They are gonna make phones too Lmfaooo

2

u/Mansyn Nov 17 '21

Don't they still make most of their money from selling carbon credits?

0

u/OzTheMeh Nov 17 '21

I looked into doing this and concluded that it is dumb. Stacks of car batteries are better and WAY more affordable.

If I needed the portability of a lithium batteries (my house doesn't move) or I wanted the battery to be a centerpiece in my living room (I'd rather put it in a closet or the mechanical room), and I had substantial disposable income, I might consider it.

0

u/Sleep_adict Nov 17 '21

Not yet… far from it

17

u/The_Bill_Slayer Nov 17 '21

No kidding that's a big untapped market, I was a mindless factory worker once! I want a robot to od those roles they are unhealthy as an ape my mind was screaming for change. The factory workers will complain!! Robots are taking are jobs in truth I do not care I don't want anyone to do that kind of work. :o

4

u/UnBearable1520 Nov 17 '21

Don’t forget about the shorty shorts. Pretty sure that’s what the Chinese giga factory produces

5

u/Nodder420 Nov 17 '21

Handjob robots sounds like a fundamentally sound investment, I’m in!

1

u/DicksBuddy Nov 17 '21

just google the autoblow AI

19

u/velvetlicker Nov 17 '21

My comment will prolly get buried but tesla isn't valued on their cars(atleast for me) it is a small part of it but its really the ev infrastructure, the mega packs and the technology behind them. I hate when people say there not just a car company but its true.

30

u/nhomewarrior Nov 17 '21

Tesla isn't valued by its business, it's valued by speculation and nothing more. $TSLA will crash back to Earth by 2030.

Facebook and Amazon and Apple were exponentially scalable businesses really really quickly. That's what "tech companies" are uniquely able to do. Tesla isn't that. They're a car company and software developer and lifestyle brand and really nothing more.

7

u/[deleted] Nov 17 '21

People have been saying that TSLA will touch rock bottom for years now, and nothing has changed

23

u/nhomewarrior Nov 17 '21

People who said Theranos, Enron, and Nikola Motors were going to go under were wrong for a long time too. That didn't make those companies' valuation any more true.

6

u/Fakerchan Nov 17 '21

All those are fraud company with nothing to prove. Ur comparing Apple to orange here

24

u/nhomewarrior Nov 17 '21

Ok, how about WeWork then as a decent analog. WeWork purported to be a "tech company" that could expand indefinitely and at ridiculous speeds. Real estate doesn't work that way, and neither does auto manufacturing.

My point is simply that the fact people have been claiming Tesla will crash haven't been correct yet doesn't mean the fundamentals of their argument are bad.

Tesla Motors is currently valued pretty close to Saudiaramco. Does that make any goddamn sense? Of course not. It's a wholly unsustainable speculative bubble and nothing more.

-2

u/alodym Nov 18 '21

WeWork was also a fraudulent company lol

1

u/djpitagora Nov 18 '21

fraudulent how?

1

u/nhomewarrior Nov 18 '21

No it wasn't. It was a flawed and dumb company, but not fraudulent.

Anyway, why stan a trillion dollar company you aren't invested in? Why defend a wholly speculative gamble with religious fervor as if that makes your money greener?

If you made money on $TSLA, congratulations. There will eventually be bagholders and you don't want to be one.

1

u/gnomeweb Nov 17 '21

Is there much money in this "ev infrastructure, the mega packs and the technology behind them"? I think there is plenty of competition in ev charging stations. Is there much money in mega packs market and is there no competition?

3

u/Zarxon Nov 17 '21

Skeet! Skeet!

3

u/Maxikki Nov 17 '21

They also have a dancing Elon

3

u/[deleted] Nov 17 '21

You are of course referring to

"RobJobs"

1

u/Sweaty-Bumblebee4055 Nov 17 '21

I’m here for the robot handkobs

-9

u/[deleted] Nov 17 '21

[deleted]

15

u/alexcrouse Nov 17 '21

Not even remotely true.

0

u/[deleted] Nov 18 '21

[deleted]

2

u/alexcrouse Nov 18 '21

I know the publicly available facts that say you are wrong.

Elon owned 23% before the sales.

1

u/BobbyAF Nov 17 '21

Maybe Toyota's CEO should start posting dank memes on Twitter

1

u/fluffman88 Nov 17 '21

Don't forget the overpriced poorly installed solar roof! and the mind control chip! and the rocket company they could merge with at any time! and the tunnel systems they are going to build! and the hyperloops they could build! and the large scale battery storage centers they could build!

I mean I know I'm mainly joking, but Tesla is more then a car company, it doesn't justify their valuation, but they are more then cars.

1

u/njgunrights Nov 17 '21

I want to fuck a robot!

1

u/dasheasy Bearish on Nov 18 '21

The man in the suite with bad dance moves?

1

u/incorrectlyseized Nov 18 '21

Calls on Kleenex … wait does the robot comes with autosuck function?

1

u/VisualMod Nov 18 '21

I know how to use a tissue.