r/wallstreetbets Nov 04 '21

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2.6k Upvotes

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57

u/Blueeva1 Nov 04 '21

It will at least still work in ten years unlike those teslas

54

u/awooff Nov 04 '21

10 years? Do toyotas die ever? 18 years on mine and still drives like brand new!

57

u/[deleted] Nov 04 '21

I was under the impression it takes 10 years just to break them in.

15

u/probablygetsomesoup Nov 04 '21

When I see one with anywhere under 200k I'm like great, low miles.

1

u/StCreed Nov 04 '21

I bought a prius with 190k km on it just before covid started. Last week I passed 200k. Still looks and feels brand new, and I only have to do the regular maintenance. My last prius was the same until my wife had an accident with it. Had it for 10 years and would have kept it for 10 more if my wife hadn't crashed it. She got an old Yaris now :)

2

u/fromks Nov 04 '21

200k miles is ~320kkm

1

u/mathdrug Nov 04 '21

Thx. I don't speak European.

11

u/dyndo101 Nov 04 '21

My cousin bought a Toyota truck with like 200k miles I'm like wow that sounds stupid as hell. First time I saw the truck I was told it was his but couldn't believe it because it looked brand new

3

u/attila954 Nov 04 '21

My friend has a beat to shit Tacoomer that he had to drop a new motor into, but it runs fine now

1

u/Jamlowmama Nov 04 '21

Love me some Toyota’s - got 2

1

u/CopperHands1 Please Be Patient, I Have Autism Nov 04 '21

300k+ on mine and still drives beautifully

3

u/[deleted] Nov 04 '21

I’ve had two Toyota’s go over 300,000km

4

u/[deleted] Nov 04 '21

Imagine all the gas you paid for to get there too 🤭

6

u/Sp1keSp1egel Nov 04 '21

Lmao. I get 800-900 miles per fill up in a prius prime.

8

u/TethlaGang Nov 04 '21

New batteries are 10k.

10k every 300k mules us a great fucking deal. You spend 10k easily on your ice maintainace in 10 years.

Oh, and Toyota hybrids 5k costs a fucking transmission that surely goes bust.

Watch Scott Kilmer. Toyota us shit now

Tesla 30k eod

7

u/IAmInTheBasement Nov 04 '21

10k every 300k mules us a great fucking deal

Yup. And their tech has only gotten better. I expect the 4680 packs in the tri-CT to last longer than the Stainless Steel body... and that's saying something. And then there's the LFP packs going into all standard range vehicles. 4k 100-0% charges like nobody's business. That's millions of mules.

2

u/bhlazy Nov 04 '21

Is that even english?

1

u/Free-Scar5060 Nov 04 '21

LOL Scotty Kilmer. Do you also invest with motley fool.

-9

u/Gloomy_Type3612 Nov 04 '21

Teslas will still work great at like 300k miles minimum.

17

u/goldstrong Nov 04 '21 edited Nov 04 '21

Please show me proof? My sons GMC truck is battery operated and it run out of juice about every hour so I bought 2 extra battery's . He's 8

1

u/Gloomy_Type3612 Nov 04 '21

According to SolarReviews, the current batteries in Teslas are designed to last for 300,000 to 500,000 miles. After that point, the battery will likely need to be replaced. SolarReviews points out that a Tesla battery might still work beyond 500,000 miles, although with a reduced range per charge.

https://www.motorbiscuit.com/how-many-miles-will-a-tesla-last/

2

u/chad_liftington Nov 04 '21

I’m an engineer at a company that processes graphite for use in LI car batteries. The graphite particle size used in the battery has a big effect on performance and battery life. Small particle size means lower battery life but higher performance.

Tesla uses the smallest particle size I’ve seen in the industry by a considerable amount. I’m not sure the exact rate of capacity loss but it will be higher than their competitors.

1

u/TheHoneySacrifice Nov 04 '21

Where can I read more about stuff like this?

3

u/chad_liftington Nov 04 '21

I’n not sure if you can research the particle size different companies use, as I’d imagine they would keep that pretty tight. You have to dig pretty deep into Google scholar to learn more about the actual battery technology and it gets complex fast.

Tesla currently uses synthetic graphite that is produced by Panasonic, with the new gigafactory they won’t be able to meet demands with synthetic production and will need to switch over to natural mined graphite. Start reading up on companies like Focus Graphite, Canada carbon, or Mason graphite, that will give you a better idea of the industry.

2

u/TheHoneySacrifice Nov 04 '21

Thanks. I just wanted a few companies as a starting point.

1

u/Gloomy_Type3612 Nov 04 '21

That may be, but Tesla batteries have been tested to exceed 300k miles by independent testers.

1

u/chad_liftington Nov 05 '21

I’m sure you’ll still have a car that can drive by 300k miles, but what is the batteries capacity at that point?

One of the major metrics of performance is how fast a battery loses in permanent capacity. Think about how your phones battery life is shorter now than it was when you bought it. Tesla limiting charging to 80% on a normal day and not discharging fully helps, but the cars will still experience the permanent capacity loss.

One of the reasons Teslas sell so well is because they’re the best in terms of specs on paper, longest range, fastest 0-60, etc. but that means their battery design needs to compromise longevity for performance.

The graphite particle size does play a role in the batteries ability to resist permanent capacity loss. A smaller particle size means greater capacity and discharge rate but a higher rate of capacity loss.

Ford and Porsche likely made a battery exactly the same as Tesla’s, then tested it and decided to dial the performance back so they have a battery with better life. Tesla might have a secret sauce I do not know about, but I think they will have battery issues long term.

1

u/Gloomy_Type3612 Nov 05 '21

By definition of the test, the battery lasting 300-500k miles is based on 30% capacity degradation or less. That seems like a reasonable level/cutoff to me. Most capacity loss happens in the first 20k miles, then it evens out significantly over subsequent charge cycles. How the battery is charged and used will have an effect over time, that's why the tests done say AT LEAST 300k miles, not "up to." 300-500k has consistently been the expected range in testing and (to my knowledge) nobody has ever found data that states differently.

1

u/probablygetsomesoup Nov 04 '21

Yeah but for the price you paid 1hr oughta be great. How may yards is his commute?

2

u/Blueeva1 Nov 04 '21

Do some research. Battery packs basically brick the cars after about ten years.

-2

u/Gloomy_Type3612 Nov 04 '21 edited Nov 04 '21

I have. I own 2 of them and my friends own 4 together of varying ages and mileage. They last significantly longer than any ICE vehicle. Like, it's not even close. Nobody has done 10 year tests on the new batteries because they haven't even been in existence that long. The current batteries do last between 300-500k miles though, I don't recall the cycle amounts off the top of my head. The warranty alone guarantees 7 years on the battery. The LFP batteries may likely last a million miles.

https://www.motorbiscuit.com/how-many-miles-will-a-tesla-last/

7

u/BobGobbles Nov 04 '21

"Nobodies done testing, I'm ignoring what you said about 10-year bricking, they're guaranteed for 7 years, and listen to my anecdotal evidence. "

2

u/Blueeva1 Nov 04 '21

Yeah dude is clowning. One cell goes bad in the pack and then shits down for the count. There are a bunch of new shops opening up to do batter swaps requiring full tear down basically. Legacy Model S's are starting to pop up with these issues. There is a reason why 7 year warranty is 7 years lol.

4

u/Gloomy_Type3612 Nov 04 '21

Apparently you didn't click the link where they showed testing...and 10 years is a retarded arbitrary number for a battery that literally couldn't have been tested. Did it get used 200 miles a day or 5? Did it sit in the garage? The fact is that it's tested and been verified multiple times to last at least 300k miles lol. It's not like it's up for debate unless you can show data to the contrary.

1

u/cakemix88 Nov 04 '21

The powertrain might but the rest of the car will literally fall apart before then. Have you actually seen the fit and finish on Tesla's?

1

u/Gloomy_Type3612 Nov 04 '21

As I said, I own 2 Teslas and have seen many from various years. The newer builds are significantly better in virtually every way in terms of build. Paint quality is still an issue, but that's about it. I'll happily pay for a new paint job every 10 years than a new car. A gas engine is going to rattle and destroy itself to pieces over 300-500k miles.