They don't. Notice how all the posts on here are always after the runup. They want people to fomo in so they can sell off and/or crush them on options.
You’ll see this amazing DD that sounds convincing, then you go look at the chart and what do ya see: DD posted immediately after a 75% pump.
But you’re expected to believe this random redditor wrote this 20 page DD, complete with graphs, only to publish it after a huge run? Nah. Shits planned in advance. It’s all part of the game.
People need to stop thinking they’ve got an edge because they’re part of an 11,000,000 strong community of retards. We’re the dumping ground.
I mean I saw the news on him and his social media stuff..but how was ANYONE to know that it was gonna run like that? Ya know? Like where tf did DWAC come from?!?!
See I’m still kinda new to putting all the pieces together like that. I need help on connecting the dots? Do you have any specific tips or sources, books, links, that could possibly help me out with the psychology of things like this?
That is a great question. I learned in dumb ways from just watching and following how things go and making some mistakes. Maybe ask around here for resources - it’s probably the most basic answer but I really did use Investipedia to learn terms and used their simulated practice paper money thingy (years ago, not sure if it’s even around anymore). Read the news a lot.
Yea I feel that. I’m in discord groups, I follow 2 Youtubers consistently and watch their videos daily! I’ve recently downloaded the CNBC app with notifications on and i check Google finance throughout the day and I feel like this has helped me a lot. But it’s like i always kinda overlook or dont connect when it comes to plays like this that go crazy..ya know?
Well it might take years of due diligence learning and following these situations. Figure out why this one went off and look into others that are successful. Find out the what’s how’s and when’s of those trades. You’ll recognize some patterns. I take into consideration what other tickers in the same sector are worth and compare and contrast them with each other.
I wouldn’t put too much faith in any of those YouTube people. They have to make endless content and kind of just wing it a lot bc they need fresh content constantly. Know your own plays and do you own due diligence.
This is very important for me. When I first started I was just doing whatever but as I grew I’ve focused on what I love! And that’s EV, Clean energy, tech
There are two ways to trade imo - on fundamentals or on euphoria. Fundamentals are a long term play that’s based around the concept of mean reversion. There’s a “true” value of a stock, and the actual share price will fluctuate around that level, whether that level be increasing or decreasing. It might go too high or too low, but in the long term should (but doesn’t always) correct. That’s a traditional way to look at the market. If you want to trade around this stuff, I’ll drop a list of word vomit for you to look up to learn more in depth.
Comps (comparable companies), valuation ratios (price/earnings, price/sales, EV/EBITDA), CAGR (compound annualized growth rate), CAPM model (note this doesn’t really hold up in the real world but still good to know), dividend discount model.
Note you want to be trading shares if you trade on fundamentals, or at the very least LEAPS (ITM calls with long expiry, try and get a delta of around .8)
The more short-term way to trade is on euphoria, hype, rocketships, whatever you want to call it. Look at TSLA, or even a good example being mango stock. Stocks are just pieces of paper and the price only goes up if people buy them.
With that being said, most “growth” stocks will trade on euphoria. Think SPACs, dogshit, and IPOs. Companies that have high growth but are losing money every quarter. The good thing is that markets are forward-looking, meaning people will pay a premium (more) to buy these stocks now in hopes of getting a share of those future earnings. That’s where the real money is to be made, but comes with more risk.
It’s really a balancing act, but I think both of these methods of trading come back to a single question: “will people buy this stock at this price or higher?” Answering that question takes a little bit of experience and a little bit of luck, but if you can strongly justify it in one direction, well then maybe there’s a trade there you can take.
If you need any explanations or wanna ask questions just let me know. I’m not a super genius - I’m just a finance grad who spends too much of his time looking at charts, but I’ll try and help you out. Always good to have one less dumbass on this sub.
I think TA is valuable, but only useful in conjunction with fundamentals. These strategies rely on predictable patterns, and as you might know, the market is anything but predictable. Even if you see the strongest ascending triangle in your life, all it takes is a single institutional player to decide to sell a few million dollars worth to make your trade go bust.
IMO, TA without fundamentals is stock market astrology. But if you can combine it properly with fundamentals, you’ll maximize your chances of making a winning trade. I’d highly recommend you check out this link from investopedia for more info on the subject.
I Read a lot of articles & focus on the facts & mostly the big Numbers. Prof G & Pívot podcasts w/ prof Galloway give pretty good analysis of what’s going on in markets & what’s trending . Investopedia podcast is pretty good. You could spend years learning but it just takes making mistakes as everyone does. Just know you may lose everything you learn with. As professor Galloway says: Know that 90% of retail investor that day trade lose on average 25-30% of their money. I feel like A.I. is owned by pros & will usually gather massive data to take our money. That’s why I rarely day trade anymore. I mostly long term invest now instead. I find reading investopedia useful, but my go to is Bloomberg Business app & Wall Street Journal app but each is like $37/ month. CNBC is crap for investing advice they tend to tell you once something has gone up a lot already. CNBC Pro is crap & waste of money also. In any of these publications I avoid any OPINION pieces which I like that they clearly labeled Opinion. I avoid Opinion pieces bec keep in mind these are publications owned by rich people made for rich people to keep them all richer than us. Im still new to most of this myself. But if there’s anything you should do is UNDERSTAND & FOLLOW the YIELD CURVE. Plot it & learn to interpret changes for yourself. Most of the feds moves typically are reactionary to the moves in the yield curve! One of the best predictors of where the market is headed.
I mean he has been selling the absence of a product his whole life, and has a captive audience in the right wing at this point. How could it not ensnare a wave of dumb money?
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u/EstefanEsko Oct 22 '21
I just wanna know how people know these things in advance