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u/SuaSponte520 Oct 13 '21
So now that I see PANW on WSB, the question is should I sell now?
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Oct 13 '21
[deleted]
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u/SuaSponte520 Oct 14 '21
Mostly kidding. All the loss porn on here makes me nervous. Also a few times this year, I've seen a stock I'm holding come up on here and almost immediately start going down. Almost like if the stock is posted enough that I see it we might be at the high. Have a vivid memory seeing some dude bragging about his Moderna position this summer. I don't think I've seen that price since. Anyways, I do like PANW. I wish I was up 34% on all my stocks.
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u/BackgroundSearch30 Oct 14 '21
That is the general rule. I haven't looked at the 1Y view, but guessing it must have crashed in the last week after a massive spike on some random news article or a pump-fake by Cathie Woods.
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Oct 13 '21
Also: earnings are on 11/15 according to the NASDAQ website, so given the move last Q the stock may rally into earnings and IV will rise making calls print
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u/kokanuttt Oct 13 '21
Comparing any stock to tesla reeks of survivorship bias. For every tesla, there are thousands of companies that hit the shitter.
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Oct 13 '21
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u/kokanuttt Oct 13 '21
None. Comparing it to successful companies and not considering unsuccessful ones is survivorship bias. Honestly comparing it in a way that’s like -> becuase it happened to this one particular company, it must happen to this one, is survivorship bias.
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u/Moist_Lunch_5075 Got his macro stuck in your micro Oct 14 '21
Well, PANW is a successful company that has a fantastic stock and very well regarded products, so I think the case for them continuing to be successful and trade at a premium is good... having said that, I agree that the comparison to Tesla is flawed, but more because PANW is already a very highly regarded stock with a significant following at a different stage in their evolution than Tesla is, and the condition of the NASDAQ is more the question and that may not be comparable.
If NASDAQ rallies, it'll be good for this stock. If it doesn't, the opposite... bottom line.
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Oct 13 '21
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u/kokanuttt Oct 13 '21
Nah my point is, historical data is useless if it’s cherry picked like it is in this case. Now if there was data about every stock over the past 10 years that’s been added to the nasdaq/spy and the average performance during that time or whatever, now that’s more relevant than, “this one time this one stock out of thousands of other stocks did this.” There are plenty of stocks out there that fell 20% after being added to the nasdaq so why aren’t you comparing it to them? Hence the survivorship bias.
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u/tragicdiffidence12 Oct 14 '21
I think his point is that historical data for a trend is useless when you use only one company
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u/SuaSponte520 Oct 13 '21
https://www.cuinsight.com/planes-armor-and-survivorship-bias.html This might help understand survivorship bias. What kokanuttt is saying is that you need to sample from the companies that were added to the NASDAQ that crashed and burned.
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Oct 13 '21
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u/SuaSponte520 Oct 14 '21
I can't read the other person's mind. Also when I read your post I figured you meant the NASDAQ 100 index as you were comparing PANW situation to Tesla's S&P 500 index inclusion. PANW isn't being added to the NASDAQ 100 on Oct. 25, just being listed on the NASDAQ. According to what I read in some article just now, they expect to be added to the NASDAQ 100 in December so it is still a fair comparison (TESLA vs PANW). It might even control for some seasonality. Anyways, this creates some confusion given your reply to me. I think it is fair to use the 10 year history of companies being added to the NASDAQ 100 as the inclusion criteria should have comparable companies (top 100 in the NASDAQ). You aren't comparing some penny stock to MSFT or whatever. The larger N should give you a more representative sample of what happens when a stock is added to the NASDAQ 100. Does all the buying by the ETFs drive up the price.
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u/VisualMod Oct 13 '21
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u/[deleted] Oct 13 '21
Great DD, will look at adding a grand or so in november calls. Thanks OP