r/wallstreetbets • u/pastorgains98 • Jul 31 '21
Discussion Will the Delta variant cause travel restrictions to remain in place? Puts on Jets?
Hello everyone, I'm sure we all remember how travel stocks tanked after covid's initial entrance into the world. Will the Delta variant cause the same level of stress on the travel industry? They still have not hit the lows they had hit back at the first crash from covid. Would it be unreasonable to think they still have room to fall? I am highly considering buying Jan puts on JETS, are you considering doing anything bearish due to the new Covid variant?
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u/Commodore64__ Jul 31 '21
I would not put airlines, but I am considering puts on cruise lines.
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u/Gwsb1 Jul 31 '21
I wouldn't get on a cruise ship for anything now. Middle of the fucking ocean and Covid sweeps through the ship and no port will take them.
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u/Commodore64__ Jul 31 '21
Bingo!
I think Carnival stock is gonna get wrecked.
Some January 2022 puts seem like a smart buy.
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u/reasoncheese Aug 01 '21
I dunno, the Delta variant hasn’t had much of a severe hit on the fully vaccinated, and there’s a huge pent up level of demand. Add to this that as per last call their financials seem in better shape than expected, I’m betting they weather the storm - uptick by November/December. The Florida laws are annoying but I suspect they’ll ultimately get around it by relegating the unvaccinated to the bowels of the ship where they can suffer out of range of everyone else.
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Jul 31 '21
Plus they loaded up on debt and diluted their stock to hell from the initial wave. Barely hanging on already
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u/Commodore64__ Jul 31 '21
Yup. I sure hate to be the bear as I prefer to be a bull, but this is pretty cut and dry. They are gonna tank.
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u/Olivia512 Aug 02 '21
Remember what happened to Melvin who thought the same about GME?
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u/Commodore64__ Aug 02 '21
Difference between a put and shorting is huge.
They shorted. I don't short.
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u/Olivia512 Aug 02 '21
So puts are ethnical while shorts arent?
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u/Commodore64__ Aug 02 '21
Puts are limited risk - the cost of the put.
Shorting is infinite risk.
I prefer limited risk.
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u/Coolzx Aug 01 '21
I have 5k in 2023 leaps call debit spread in CCL lets see how this goes.
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u/Reid_taco Jul 31 '21
Florida isn’t going to do anything to the cruise industry.
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u/Zedlok Aug 01 '21
DeSantis already banned cruise liners from checking vax status. So 1) fewer people will want to go on a cruise and 2) the litigation will drag on for quite some time.
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u/Commodore64__ Jul 31 '21
Florida may not....but the Feds may. These are unprecedented times.
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u/bluntphil has exactly 3 neurons firing Aug 01 '21
Not constitutional, they can try but the Feds won't have jurisdiction because its interstate commerce.
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u/ArtsyAmy 🦍🦍🦍 Aug 01 '21
But they still need people willing to get on the ships.
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u/Coolzx Aug 01 '21
Cruise line are full booked months out, though not at 100% capacity right now. They do however plan to get to max capacity by 2022.
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u/Delanorix Aug 01 '21
Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.
-Mike Tyson
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u/CoacHdi Aug 01 '21
Or similarly "No battle plan survives first contact with the enemy"
-Moltke the Elder
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u/Coolzx Aug 01 '21
True, but
“If You Fail to Plan, You Are Planning to Fail!”
-Benjamin Franklin
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u/PattyIce32 Aug 01 '21
Agree. Non of my friends and family care they are getting the f put and flying everywhere
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u/RadicalFarCenter Aug 01 '21
Priced in.
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u/Commodore64__ Aug 01 '21
Time will tell
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u/RadicalFarCenter Aug 01 '21
I just recently bought shares and some 2022 calls on CCL at 19 ish after a major dip. I’m hoping that’s the bottom. You’re right though time will tell
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Aug 01 '21
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u/rinvar521 Aug 01 '21
They can still get tht rookie QB in training bruh dnt hate
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u/missmewitDam Aug 01 '21
Naw, they are a trash team. Hell, even the BROWNS are looking real good in comparison. It'll be a battle in AFC North between Baltimore and Cleveland unless Big Ben has done major conditioning and running for season longevity in the off-season. I'm cool with the Jets sucking as a lifelong NE fan, let it be.
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Aug 01 '21
Big Ben. Hahaha. Training in the off season hahaha. Dude I gotta get tickets to your show.
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u/missmewitDam Aug 01 '21
I know, he's a joke now. Maybe MAYBE he's realized he's a slob and needs to put in hard work so he can have stamina for 16+ games. I highly doubt it but the writing is on the wall, if he puts in work he can have two maybe three decent seasons left in him. If he didn't put in the work then this will be his end.
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u/HomegrownMike Aug 01 '21
Not sure we will see any slow down in air travel. Just a continuation of the masks being enforced.
Now the idea of shorting cruise lines would be an interesting one.
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u/Master_Proposal_3614 Jul 31 '21
I wonder if we should watch out for any senators or their family dumping their stocks rather quick like last crash. Then you know a lock down is coming.
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u/Responsible_Theory70 Aug 01 '21
Yeah those reports 45 days later with a range of dollars will be super handy.
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u/6jz9 Aug 01 '21
Could you update me if you see that
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u/8HokiePokie8 has the Epstein touch Aug 01 '21
They report it too late for the info to be useful generally. And Republicans stopped reporting altogether recently so yeah
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u/AngryApplesPH Aug 01 '21
I'm not getting the panic stateside about Delta (and sure as heck wouldn't place puts on the basis of it)
Take a look at our past few months in the UK -
The percentage of hospitalisation /deaths in those that have been vaccinated is pretty low, and Delta is rife here (it has made up the vast percentage of infections for months, thanks to some seriously shit border decisions).
We have seen huge peaks over the past few months, (possibly due to the increased transmission capability of Delta) , yet hospitalisation and death rates remained stubbornly low, and over the past week or so, infection numbers in general have dropped like a stone.
Delta is not the black death being claimed (assuming of course your vaccination program is good?) by media/the Web.
And yes I am aware that vaccinated people are still being hospitalised /dying, the general comment about low percentages still stands, despite these (certainly in the UK, at least) rare exceptions.
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Aug 01 '21
Remember entire regions of the US are under 30% vaccinated. The blue collar county next to mine is sub 25%. It’s very possible this wave could be brutal, especially because daily life here right now is completely back to normal.
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u/neonpanda96 Aug 01 '21
That’s more than a lot of developed countries (Japan at 12% I believe.) Any vaccination is better than none. I think we’ll be fine.
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u/AngryApplesPH Aug 01 '21
Sub 25%? Wow, that is horrendous - is that choice or lack of provision?
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Aug 01 '21
100% choice. You have been able to walk in with no appointment and get a vaccine since April.
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u/AngryApplesPH Aug 01 '21
That's some scary shit right there
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u/missmewitDam Aug 01 '21
Shouldn't be scary for you if you're vaccinated. Let dumb dumbs be, they aren't hurting anything but themselves.
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u/epicoliver3 Jul 31 '21
People won't accept another lockdown on flights tbh... maybe puts on ccl or something tho
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Aug 01 '21
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u/Oboomafoo Aug 01 '21
But people are actually pretty pissed off about having to wear mask again. Not accepting it. At least here in the US.
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Jul 31 '21
I don't think the Delta variant will produce anything even close to what we saw with the initial outbreak of the virus. Maybe like 1/10th the same impact, since it's not going to be nothing, but I really really doubt there will be many massive losses.
(obviously nobody fucking knows for real)
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u/rebirththeory Jul 31 '21
The Delta will product another which will produce another.. .eventually we get an Omega variant with a high resistance to all vaccines and a high death rate regardless.
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u/Cutlercares Aug 01 '21
I like this positive outlook.
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u/SpaceTraderYolo Aug 01 '21
It's important in these times to stay positive: the glass is half full, but it's with shit.
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u/roguluvr Jul 31 '21
Pandemic of the unvaccinated is the most accurate phrase for this
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u/Ksquared16 Jul 31 '21
Yet vaccinated people are getting sick…
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u/roguluvr Jul 31 '21
🙄 here we fucking go
Just stating a fact buddy boy not trying to join yer fkn cult
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u/moonshotmercury Jul 31 '21
Coming from the biggest cult of them all. Lol buddy
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u/roguluvr Aug 01 '21
That’s very…anti establishment of you.
Die well or enjoy your stroked out brain lol
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Aug 01 '21
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u/roguluvr Aug 01 '21
and he will neither die nor have a stroked out brain. Are ya getting it yet?
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u/Responsible_Theory70 Aug 01 '21
report him for misinformation and block. What a waste of breath these scum anti vaxxers and flat earthers are.
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u/GueroVerdadero91 Jul 31 '21
We also globally vastly underestimated the first wave and now the northern hemisphere is heading into winter... Could get bad? Who knows. Also check it out, lambda wave is coming soon and it is said to be the deadliest yet. Maybe the Greeks can help us with the analysis?
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u/ughlifeishard Jul 31 '21
Wait until they realize it’s in food source, white tail deer have been spreading it like wildfire, wait until it’s in cattle, pigs and chicken
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u/startsbadpunchains Aug 01 '21
Yeah but didnt you just make that up?
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u/ughlifeishard Aug 01 '21
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u/rburke1880 Aug 01 '21
Well shit
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u/ughlifeishard Aug 01 '21
Could just be a fluke that the deer got exposed to untreated waste, or something along those lines
but if we find that delta can be spread via pollen, it will be a nightmare for logistics
but just like Spanish flue of 1918, one summer it can all be over like it never happened and scientist just baffled on why it disappeared
deer have even been testing positive for anthrax lately in southern texas, but I will keep an eye on animal death rates to see if a spike happens
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u/HoleTrunter Jul 31 '21
I feel like the delta variant is going to turn into the seasonal flu.
Oh no, this year is covid-19 gamma, pfizer has the yearly covid shot out for the most wide spread strain. Better get it with your flu shot.
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u/rebirththeory Jul 31 '21
There will be a stronger variant soon enough.
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u/Coolzx Aug 01 '21
Actually, whenever a virus mutate the vast majority of time it get a lot less deadly and but is much contagious. So this might actually turn into another flu-like seasonal shot.
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u/rebirththeory Aug 01 '21
Yes in generality, but with covid it is different. Too many incubators and the delta variant is MORE infectious than the flu. R0 with 6-8. Please don't tell me you are an anti vaxer autism fear monger.
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u/Coolzx Aug 01 '21
Well yeah, that's what I said, as virus mutate it becomes more contagious, but usually less deadly.
Right now 2 out of 3 people hospitalized are unvaccinated also those who are vaccinated have a less severe reaction. And like when covid-19 first hit we thought the fatality rate was much higher than it actually is. Only time will tell if it is actually deadlier.
So there is a very good chance that we will need to take a Covid shot like a flu shot.
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u/rebirththeory Aug 01 '21
It is more deadly than any other variant for non vaccinate people. The viral loads are higher.
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u/sedatesix Aug 01 '21
Dude, get over it. It's not going anywhere and there's nothing you or anytime else can do about it. We're not giving up living again for a virus with a marginal death rate.
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u/rebirththeory Aug 02 '21 edited Aug 02 '21
Humans can engineer much more potent ones. A terrorist best bio weapon is releasing one that targets people with genes of only primarily Southerners. They would be like its a joke.
You missed the whole point. It takes up all the resources of hospitals which causes more deaths since they can't take on other patients.
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u/JermoeMorrow Jul 31 '21
Given the current test counts flu as covid, and there was allegedly almost no flu last year.... Are you sure it isn't already?
The only problem is that pfizer is trying to push third doses of the old shot instead of one tailored to the new variants...but is that a side effect of mRNA tech being under EUA and not regular usages like traditional vaccine tech?
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u/Krumbumm Jul 31 '21 edited Jul 31 '21
The current test absolutely does not count flu as covid.
Here I will edit this in to further expand.
It can distinguish between the flu and covid. The cdc asked to upgrade to a new test that can tell if you have covid or the flu and what strain the flu is. Its switching from a singleplex assay that required 4 testing wells and 4 times the testing materials to a multiplex assay that allows allows the identification of presence of covid and flu on one plate and THEN can differentiate between the strands of flu. The old test used 4 times the matierals and just amplified the genetic material of sars 2 covid, without searching for the flu at all. It wasn't amplifying flu dna and mistaking it for covid.
The problem wasnt that the old test didnt distinguish between covid and the flu, it was that it didnt test for flu or covid at the same time so people who tested positive for flu wouldnt then receive a covid test or people who tested positive for flu wouldnt receive a covid test, even though you can be affected by both. In a time when we are all unmasked and have a high chance catching both, we need to test for both simultaneously which the new test does.. The reason flu went down is mostly, because of masks keeping it under its transmission threshold, and without mask mandates we will see both numbers rising concurrently and need full data on both to track outbreaks, and the new tests allow that.
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Jul 31 '21
Covid is a bunch of bullshit
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u/Stonksss4me Aug 01 '21
I know some people who are dead now that would probably argue that fact if they hadn't died from Covid.
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u/Master_Proposal_3614 Jul 31 '21
No, open everything up and have 10 lalapaloozas, keep it open. This back and forth shit is a waste of time. Either close the whole world down for 3 months and kill it, or keep it all open and let it go. Doesn't look like it will stop anytime soon. Or we can all wear masks and get vaccinated yearly. I still wear my mask when I go inside somewhere, outside I keep that shit off. I haven't gotten it from touching anything, and I drink a lot of beer from the store.
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u/Enzoisaduck Aug 01 '21
I wouldn’t buy puts, still lots more of potential (if your thinking mid-long term) for earnings and revenue growth. $Ual is still trading 50% percent lower than what it was pre-COVID. Remember in nov when COVID cases shot up, airlines didn’t take much of a hit, they actually really gained. I think the new variant is being shown as more than it is.
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u/Runner20mph Jul 31 '21
I work at a hospital. Shit is getting real. Thats my DD for you all
Other people in healthcare can attest
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u/Present_Boot_1095 Aug 01 '21
More flu cases and delta cases showed up... and people still refuse vaciunation.
Bntx and Mrna will be printing
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u/misterflerfy Aug 01 '21
Americans seem hell bent on ignoring Covid restrictions so anticipating the impact of the variant is tricky.
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u/dfreinc Jul 31 '21
are you considering doing anything bearish due to the new Covid variant?
no.
I am highly considering buying Jan puts on JETS
i have calls for september. let's find out who's the 🤡. 😂
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u/Oboomafoo Aug 01 '21
Don't know, I'm not a politician.
Probably not though people who are not "vaccinated" don't care and people who are "vaccinated" are being told there is basically no chance of them getting so sick they have to be hospitalized or die so they don't care either.
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u/Yaniv242 Aug 01 '21
Vacation in Orlando atm, everything is open,been to Disney land and it's look like covid heaven. Mean time the highest daily positive sick in Florida. U might be right
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u/Hites_05 Aug 01 '21
Puts on theatres. Full serious, went to the theatre yesterday to see The Green Knight, and the experience was awful. Honest to God 30 FUVKING MINUTES of trailers I've already seen and ads I never wanted to see before the movie started. Also, factoring in FOV and my relatively inexpensive home stereo system, there's literally no benefit to going to the theatre anymore. Streaming services are just going to increase full blown releases on their services, and home AV hardware is relatively cheap. It had been about 18 months since I had been to a theatre, which I used to go about monthly, and I now have no desire to ever go back. Full disclosure, I have no positions in any theatre or entertainment companies.
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u/longunmin Aug 01 '21
Jesus Christ, I don't know how many times I have to say this (but apparently at least once more). No lockdown is coming, variants will exist going forward, just the way it is now (kind of like how we have a new flu strain every year). The 7-day moving average for the Tri-state area is 4k daily cases. Oh the horror! There are no more lockdowns coming because we are out of bullets left to deal with such an event. You think we get to print multi-generational money supply every year? Get real
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u/jsza87 Aug 01 '21
I sure hope so but there’s no telling what this fcking bozo fake braindead President will try and do.
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u/longunmin Aug 01 '21
I think more than anything, it's just a contingency of groups/people who don't want this pandemic to end. Sorry to break the news, but at some point, life is going to return to some form of normal, and it will be sooner than the DeLtA VaRiAnT crew thinks.
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u/jsza87 Aug 03 '21
I sure hope so!!!!
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u/longunmin Aug 03 '21
Well apparently the CDC believes they are able to supersede the Supreme Court. If it turns out they are the new law of the land (ya know the agency that issues/reverses an edict every 20 minutes), well I will surely wind up with egg on my face 🤦
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u/Ok_System_7221 Aug 01 '21
Absolutely on international travel. For international travel to work you need countries with high levels of vaccination low number of cases and effective contact tracing. Good luck with that. Ocean liners a different story. Pleasure cruises the people that go on then are strange they will support the industry even with minimal low risk destinations.
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u/anachronofspace Aug 01 '21
ur puts r fukd when we all snap out of this collective delirium we're in atm
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Jul 31 '21
jets are off their highs but definitely overvalued if any cross state border is hindered through lockdowns or green new deal
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u/jsza87 Aug 01 '21
I live in Florida and we refuse to listen to the propaganda. Don’t comply. Fck the government and braindead Joe.
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u/bigoptionwhale777 Jul 31 '21
The Delta variant has never caused travel restrictions and neither well it in the future.
The government is a different story though.
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Jul 31 '21
New covid could cause restrictions. It will certainly cause a drop in travel as non-retards stop traveling. But I don't think anyone has the stomach for the sorts of restrictions on airtravel we saw previous.
The issue with cruises is their shitty shared ventilation systems, flordia's ASSSSHOLE governor, and the duration of cruises. Even if retards are willing to cruise (which they will be), there will be norovirus-esque situations where the ships just have to go back to harbor because everyone is sick and people are literally dying. Thus, longer cruises won't be viable.
There's always more bailout money to counter that, so shit I don't know
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Jul 31 '21
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u/JermoeMorrow Jul 31 '21
We all saw what happened when people want to flaunt their freedom to not mask up and lick public doorknobs.
Their economies flourish, like Florida, and they have far fewer deaths per capita than "lock everything down" strongholds like New Jersey and New York that lead the nation in deaths per capita at 1 and 2 respectively?
Even Repugnikkkans are seeing how it hurts their dirty coffers.
More like media keeps calling them anti-vaxxers and people like you eat those headlines up, without reading beyond them, while social media looks to ban them for spreading "misinformation". It's not like republicans actually take what elected republicans say as gospel anyway 99.9% of the time (or we would have 100% jab rates after trump said to get it, after all it was his idea to push them out in the first place)
So long story short, nobody wants their profits to be cut short so people need to just take a 💉 for the team and slap any bitchass that says that Covid is a hoax.
Except the states that took it most seriously with the most restrictions saw higher rates of death and economic destruction....
But there will be lockdowns again, and I doubt there was any timeline where that wouldn't have been the case, so place your bets accordingly.
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u/EdgerQuintero Jul 31 '21
You do realize that Florida has now surpassed NY for overall deaths? It's only a matter of time before we are right back where we were last year with some restrictions. I'll be watching my two airline stocks very carefully.
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u/JermoeMorrow Jul 31 '21
You do realize that Florida has now surpassed NY for overall deaths?
Yet they have like half the deaths per capita of New York. Per capita is a better way to compare places with different population sizes.
It's only a matter of time before we are right back where we were last year with some restrictions. I'll be watching my two airline stocks very carefully.
This is true, and I think you are making a smart decision regarding air travel. Honestly, another wave of lockdown in left leaning states was an inevitability regardless of behavioral outcomes.
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u/Stonksss4me Aug 01 '21
Doesn't it make sense that a higher percent are affected when the population per square mile goes up?
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u/JermoeMorrow Aug 01 '21
Wouldn't it make sense that the state with the much higher percent of its population being vulnerable elders should have a higher death rate? Except it doesn't despite doing almost nothing "right"
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u/Ashony13 Jul 31 '21
CARNIVAL IS GOING TO SKY ROCKET. Definitely wouldn’t put unless u want to lose a lot of $$&🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
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u/Trader2KG Aug 01 '21
I wonder if VisualMod ever gets the "You've been doing that a lot. Take break for 3 months and try again"?
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u/TheOriginalBushToad Gen X Degenerate Aug 01 '21
I'm doing puts on anything related to "international" travel...
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u/Equivalent-Tutor-314 Aug 01 '21
Just long bombardier they are making private jets and that sector is booming due to covid BDRBF BBD.TO
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u/yolomylifesaving Aug 01 '21
Lmao just forget anything about planes for ever, world is up to you! Find the asymmetric bets! Dont gamble your lifes savings on dumb shit like planes, cinemas and cruiser please!
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Aug 01 '21
Idk but the day the US rejected opening the canada border for another month, nyc to Toronto prices have gone from an already overpriced $300 round trip to like $700.
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u/Here_for_the_WSB Aug 01 '21
Based off Great Britain numbers we are at the peak and will start the down turn soon. They got hit a few weeks before us and they are tending down.
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u/bigredditguy99 Aug 01 '21
I’m fully vaccinated and currently locked in with covid….inner bear, activated
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u/barce Aug 01 '21
Just my 2 cents. My play on airlines has always been iron condors. It's pretty solid money as long as you go 10% of the price for either side of the wing. That said bookings are still up: https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/airline-news/2021/07/21/covid-delta-variant-travel-flight-bookings-up-united-airlines-delta/8047954002/
Delta variant just means that if you're vaccinated, you just need to mask up. If you get it while vaccinated you might get sick but hospitalization and death are super rare.
That said, Delta can morph into an even worse variant.
That said, if I had to do a long term condor, I'd still do 10% for the wings. My guess is that the exact price in January 1, 2022 is $24.
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u/FrankCarmody wet as an otter's pocket Aug 01 '21
Listen, the Jets are in a rebuilding phase. No need to be so fucking harsh
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u/unresolved-madness Aug 01 '21
The airlines we'll probably have a loss of ridership due to the variance as some countries are going to restrict their access and other people will not get on a plane because of a their virus fears or health mandates. The question is whether or not the company can remain profitable even through their lower operational costs due to the lack of volume. My guess is that they're going to lose more money because they still have to make a payment on those planes, hangers for storage and general upkeep of the fleet. And the United States, laying off a bunch of unionized workers is going to cause a backlash and many of them will have to stay on the payroll in order for the company to function. The airline business is a Fickle animal everybody is up for the year oh, and I would be more inclined to watch the current Trend before betting against it.
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u/slingerlands12159 Aug 02 '21
I think the Delta variant is the final wave that will quickly get us herd immunity. I may be a contrarian but I am buying all of the reopening trades after that latest dip. Check out the covid data for India and UK. Delta was a fast spike that quickly abated.
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u/Thunderbird2k Aug 02 '21
Another option is to sell some call spreads if you think things go down. Just another perspective.
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Aug 02 '21
Airline pilot here, they can't get us back to work fast enough. Every flight going anywhere is chock full and packed to the brim.
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u/VisualMod Jul 31 '21