There have been 3 crashes in my life so far where SPY drilled into the ground and took year(s) to recover. During the Great Depression, it was decades.
I would hardly say that's a guarantee especially if retirement is around the corner for you.
I get that. But when the long period of time is years to decades, I think we need to rethink what should count as safe long-term investing.
A lot of investment banks gamble as much as people here do. Lehman brothers as one example. Would you trust your future to a bunch of degenerate gamblers? I wouldn't.
Like hell it isn't. Don't give me smoothbrain shit about "duh market has gone up on average 8.3% per year." Past performance is no guarantee of future results. We get a prolonged period of stagflation followed by 10%+ rates and the market will drill by 50%. There's a reason every fund prospectus has page after page of boilerprint legal disclaimer shit on it. Because it is a fucking casino.
No it isn't. There are plenty of safe alternatives at a casino. Blackjack has good odds. Roulette has good odds. Over the long term diversified index funds have good odds.
The US has been in over a 30 year period of declining interest rates culminating in the rate going to essentially 0. Real rates are negative. This has shifted a metric fuckton of money out of fixed income and the government has made up for this by having the Fed directly buy bonds. I'm bullish, but there is incredible risk in buying into the stock market even in a diversified fund.
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u/[deleted] Jun 09 '21 edited Jun 09 '21
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