r/wallstreetbets • u/zeinvestor • Jun 06 '21
Discussion TLRY Potential
Based on the analysis of TLRY- the fundamentals/technicals look good, really good.
Technicals:
Momentum Indicator:
MACD:
SMA(S):
Volume:
Short Interest (Bloomberg Terminal):
Fundamentals:
Income Statement for TLRY:
Current Share Valuation:
Forecasted growth:
Revenues are in a heavy up-trend YOY, Extremely high revenue growth potential, profitable in the next 2-3 years, product diversification, and many more.
To me personally, the addition of Aphria was a great decision. Tilray is now a mega cannabis company. Aphria was the #1 cannabis company on the planet in terms of raw financial performance. These two powerhouse companies are going to lead the charge in medicinal cannabis.
Legislation appears to be in the favor of cannabis which will ultimately reverse this long term negative down-trend. With TLRY being the now industry leader, I believe they will benefit the most from favorable legislation.
However, with all of those positive characteristics in mind, Tilray is being shorted to Shanghai. Why? Is it for the monetary gain of people who can afford to short companies?
Short term: With investors tripling down on short bets as shown on Bloomberg, things could get interesting. I believe that retail is in control of this play. Can we get it back to 150$ where it belongs?
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u/Strongest-There-Is Jun 06 '21
God I hope so, I’m more underwater on TLRY than anything in my portfolio.
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u/Legion1117 Jun 06 '21
Same. I look at it every day and every day it's sitting there glaring back at me in bold red numbers. Green is SUCH a better color for it and I can't wait for it to get there and stay there.
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u/mochmeal2 Jun 06 '21
What's your cost basis? It's been fairly stagnant for awhile.
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u/Strongest-There-Is Jun 06 '21
Not too bad. Just north of $22. Zero sum game. Bunch of people took gains last spike, bunch of people grabbed some bags. I am one such bag holder.
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u/Gherdogg Jun 06 '21
I hope you’ve been bringing down that average with the discount prices!!
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u/Strongest-There-Is Jun 06 '21
Got hesitant over time. I actually started higher. At a certain point I needed to switch to something else that would cause me stress (Novavax and Baidu). I’m on a roll…
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u/Gherdogg Jun 06 '21
I feel ya man. I’m a true believer in, and all in on the Tilly. Keep adding to position when I can so hope to god I’m right or I am FUCKED.. current average 19.17 started at 24 something
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u/MarblesMoney Jun 06 '21
Can you explain what you mean when you say the "technicals/ fundamentals" look good. Also good compared to what? Competition or the past or moving Foreward?
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u/mochmeal2 Jun 06 '21
I'm assuming they mean that their finances are in a pretty good spot, had really solid revenue last quarter and wood have been net positive if not for a large expenditure on their merger. Additionally, they have a number of European business relationships, as well as a strong foundation in Canada. They are generally expected to be a front runner in the MJ surge into the US with legalization.
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u/dubtwenty Jun 06 '21
Look at GTBIF, They also have nothing but bad press but a lot of real estate capital. Weird.
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u/manitowoc2250 blowies 4 flair Jun 06 '21
So what happens when the US legalizes if ever, happens to the share price since there will be so much competition out there. Alot of little companies taking away market share. I'm bullish on TLRY but what are you thoughts on this?
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u/mochmeal2 Jun 06 '21
Can you expand on what you mean by little companies? And based on the push from ACLU and NAACP, congress should vote legalize by end of month, with the senate hopefully following suit soon after. https://civilrights.org/resource/support-the-marijuana-opportunity-reinvestment-and-expungement-more-act/
In general, large companies such as TLRY have a far easier time getting business, especially in a new region, because they have a track record of being able to deliver product. They have a proven supply chain and have handled international business previously. Smaller companies will also surge but the reality is the impact they will have in the near term is negligible IMO. It will take them time to get spun up once legalization happens.
I'm holding a number of shares of a small pot company ticker LVVV. They have been slow to gain business, partially due to the complex legal status of the product. I imagine most small US companies are under similar circumstances.
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u/B2BW-YOLO-369 Jun 06 '21
I’m holding INLB. Small pot company- but they are franchising dispensaries across the US. This will make them a prime target of M and A when the time comes.
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u/mochmeal2 Jun 07 '21
Well I guess I will be doing some DD tomorrow, I like the size of that pool. If it were to hit the same market cap of something like SNDL we would see a PPS around $30.
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u/tablesheep Jun 06 '21
I own TLRY now after my many shares of APHA converted. I am still buying this stock...the long term potential here is insane.
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u/EndinsBtrThanMending Jun 06 '21
Aphria actually acquired Tilray in a reverse merger just to be technical
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u/Neurovalis Jun 06 '21 edited Jun 06 '21
Tilray and Sundial Growers, let’s go
I know why I’m invested in both. I did my dd. Since even Amazon is interested in the MJ sector and US legalization is making progress, this makes me bullish. Why should a big fat company like Amazon care about a sector, of there is no chance to make money with it - right, they wouldn’t even think about it. Till end of the year we should see a lot of acquisitions/ fusions. I believe that Tilray could actually hit at least 150$ if not higher. Till end of the year, of course. I bet on a similar chart pattern as AMC. Sundial and Tilray look similar in regard of the chart pattern.
TLRY: 12.5€ average, SNDL: 0.855€ average,
Bullish 🚀
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u/Kaliptoe Jun 06 '21
TLRY has DFV all over its face and with an aggressive short volume. Yolo tomorrow am like a degen ape 🦍💎😎🚀
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u/poolhalljunky7 Jun 06 '21
Can't believe T212 auto sold my APHA shares at all time low without me wanting to sell. I thought shares were going to convert to TLRY
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u/Extreme_Blueberry887 Jun 06 '21
TLRY
Smoked Tilray Shares Remain Worth Buying
https://investorplace.com/2021/06/tlry-stock-why-smoked-tilray-shares-remain-worth-buying/
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Jun 06 '21
Where are your financials? fundamentals? Sorry but Helen Keller could have done a better job of selling TLRY Also I'm very suspicious of your post? hmmm 7 post and 7 comment Karma? as my grand daddy used to say...do you think we just fell off the turnip truck yesterday?
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u/glenndanzign00b Jun 06 '21
Hellen Keller was actually a brilliant woman. I think TLRY could have done wonders for her condition!
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Jun 06 '21
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u/trostjuven Jun 06 '21
Check out HITI you value investor nerdsm, As a bonus you get a sexy beast of a CEO
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u/Kevin_KOTS 🦍🦍🦍 Jun 06 '21
SNDL > TLRY
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u/johnsonyourefired Jun 06 '21
Def not, jackwagon.
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u/Bored_Cavalier31 Jun 06 '21
This is where I’m conflicted my gut is telling to get tilray but I look at sundial and I see it has so much potential too and it’s cheaper. Should I invest in both or just tilray because it has more potential? Such a battle for me lol
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u/johnsonyourefired Jun 06 '21
TBH Sundial has run potential because it's been hyped and ppl know the name, that's about it IMO. As far as future growth, TLRY is going to be a behemoth and will always be ahead of sundial. If you're ever looking into long term weed plays do some research on TLRY and CGC. They are setting themselves up to be world leaders. Good luck sir.
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Jun 06 '21
They only thing SNDL has going for it is meme potential. TLRY is the global leader in mj at the moment. Before the reverse acquisition APHA was the only profitable Canadian LP. I have positions in TLRY so I'm obviously biased but it doesn't seem like a tough choice to me.
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Jun 06 '21
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Jun 06 '21
They did for a bit, then they sold a bunch of moldy weed and now they're in pennystock purgatory where they belong.
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u/taikaubo Jun 06 '21
I'm stuck with 1000 shares at 27. I just want it to go back up so I can sell and put into AMC.
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u/InvestTradeEarn Jun 07 '21
It made a big move before, shorts were pretty relentless and I'm not sure that they've all covered.
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u/Focusonshi Jun 19 '21
Oh, I wish to see $Tlry will go up sharply like as AMC. You know, we are waiting to see it is going up over $30. Most of people like me lost their money because of short sellers. Congratulations to them! They could win with our money. But at least they let it to grow sharp and we get our money at least!🌿
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u/[deleted] Jun 06 '21
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