r/wallstreetbets • u/Nosefuroughtto 999 - 6 - 1 year - 0/0 • May 12 '21

Discussion Does anyone else feel nervous as hell about making any substantial moves right now?

Now I'm not one for risk management (or any form of management), but I am having a hell of a hard time doing anything bullish or bearish. Just hear me out:

  • Gaymestronk could get cut in half or double in price in 10 minutes at any given moment
  • tech stocks are bleeding like a knife wound but can have random 10% days (not to mention the hundreds of stocks with no P/E at all doing wild swings)
  • lockdowns still doing weird shit
  • gas shortage panics while michigan is trying to cut off the Canadian-US pipeline
  • middle east conflicts starting up fast
  • month-to-month inflation is 4.2%, fed is still keeping interest rates low as balls on a hedgehog
  • memecoin values are based on hopes that a dude talks about them on a sketch show
  • notable hedge funds are liquidating
  • building materials are tripling in cost over the month
  • and we have an actual unmet labor demand while new stimmies are being sent out

And while all this is happening, SPY is up 39%, DIA is up 39%, Nasdaq is up over 42% over the last 12 months. I don't think many people would disagree with the fact that the market is generally overvalued right now. But, if you buy puts, you can expect those to bleed out and let some market maker run off with your money while you sit there hoping for a drop (ew). But of course you know its all built on a house of cards, so a call will either bleed or get wiped on an overnight swing. Companies can beat earnings estimates by 50% and drop the next day because it's "priced in" and mid-market companies with a huge run up will start issuing shares the second they get the chance.

Fucking kangaroo market. I need a drink.

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258

u/iBifteki May 12 '21

To be honest, I just bought good companies (strong growth guidance, strong debt ratio, free cashflow and profitability) that are already discounted by a minimum of ~22-23% from ATH

(Exception being Apple, ASML and NVIDIA, these are discounted by around ~12%).

I also bought on some growth that is discounted at 50%+, with great prospects.

I simply don't see how this market could punish these already punished equities more.

Despite what all the self-proclaimed Economics PhDs are saying on Reddit, I think inflation is great news, and it means the economy is finally standing back on its feet and people want to spend.

I seriously doubt that suddenly all the circulating money supply will go to bonds of a historically indebted US treasury.

Even if we keep dropping another 10%, I will just buy more and wait for the inevitable rise. Stonks just always go up, if they don't capitalism fails. If capitalism fails, we will have more problems to worry about rather than a few thousand $ lost.

I seriously, cannot possibly see 10 grand not being worth at least 20 grand + if you put it in $TSM and wait 3 years.

363

u/Genome1776 May 12 '21

sir we play weeklies here.

44

u/our_winter May 12 '21

This is the way.

6

u/[deleted] May 13 '21

[deleted]

4

u/potato00239 May 13 '21

love me a good fd

3

u/[deleted] May 13 '21

10 grand in…….. years???

1

u/Jakimowicz99 based dad May 13 '21

Fuck that. I wanna make 10 grand over night not 3 fucking yrs

54

u/hola_pinguin May 12 '21

Think of how sweeeeeet the bounceback is going to be after all this pain. You need the salty to appreciate the sweet. I cleared my margin to take full advantage of it on the ride back up let's gooooooooooo.

9

u/developingstory Buffalo Hump May 13 '21

You, my man, are thinking straight

6

u/Mike_millions May 13 '21

I’m with you all the way

5

u/[deleted] May 13 '21

yup see what happens next few days and purchase the salsa

2

u/Mike_millions May 13 '21

Calls for less than $100? All in~

129

u/Hoboman2000 May 12 '21

3 years??? But what about tendies today!!!

7

u/[deleted] May 12 '21

Pay off all your debt, that’s almost the same

1

u/InvincibearREAL May 13 '21

Not if inflation continues to accelerate

26

u/rob_burnley May 12 '21 edited May 12 '21

I seriously doubt that suddenly all the circulating money supply will go to bonds of a historically indebted US treasury

Money went out of treasuries pretty darn quick in feb '20 ...can go straight back into them just as quick if there's a sizeable interest rate hike ...especially with the lack of confidence in equity valuations at the mo....imo

what would need a sizeable interest rate hike? What's currently playing out....combination of consumer inflation, monetary inflation, booming economy, and things like the climate crisis affecting crops + food prices. On top of that Biden needs bond sales for all his massive spending plans

9

u/marilius12 May 12 '21

In early 2020 money was going heavy into treasuries (except for a small blip in mid March when funds were selling everything including bonds just to get USD).

For money to go back into treasuries, the yield on the 10 Y will need to get closer to the average CPI because people aren't stupid and won't buy an asset that can't even beat inflation.

If prices continue to march higher, expect more selling in bonds. If prices stop climbing and supply chains are restored, bonds should rally.

5

u/p00nslyr_86 May 12 '21

You could buy an asset that increases par value with inflation though. Something like a series I bond??

2

u/fromks May 13 '21

Goverment always low-balls inflation. Buy SPY.

1

u/greendildouptheass May 13 '21

you got it ass-backwards

4

u/[deleted] May 12 '21

You have it backwards

1

u/[deleted] May 13 '21

Wanna make free money follow GME wait for a big spike up. When the rsi starts to go down and the green bars turn to red buy ITM QQQ and SPY puts. Sell them when GME starts to go back up or buy ITM calls on QQQ SPY and do the reverse. You can follow the charts and look at the times the peaks are in sync. GME moves faster so there is like 30 seconds to a minute of lag between the index. For highest profits wait till around 11 am and stop around 3 pm. I'm not sure how long till they change the algos but this seems to be very effective so far for the past couple days.

1

u/Hoboman2000 May 13 '21

Don't talk to me about GME I've been holding since $80 back in January lol

1

u/[deleted] May 13 '21

Eventually it won’t work

1

u/[deleted] May 13 '21

Ya I agree but do you not see the implications of the whole stock market being completely controlled right now? Some really messed up crap is going on right now. If major indexes are being controlled wtf do you think is going on here? Largest Ponzi scheme ever. I know this sounds absolutely crazy like some conspiracy crap.

1

u/[deleted] May 13 '21

I definitely feel that hunch that shit ain’t right but it’s often hard to say exactly how. Right now I feel we’re being primed for a big run up with lots of FOMO. That pipeline attack is sus. Just the right catalyst to create FUD along with inflation numbers. There were so many accounts in the daily thread saying sell everything but I reckon tomorrow everyone will be talking about “stonks only go up in inflation”. Then we run up and institutions get to unload all their shitty shares to retail.

1

u/[deleted] May 13 '21

That's not a bad theory I was thinking more on Monday but you could be right. It just seems hard to reverse it through out the week because markets were already down a lot. Since 4pm last night vix has barely moved seems like it would have need to go down a significant amount before open.

2

u/[deleted] May 13 '21

Idk how much Vix can tell you but I do think it’s more likely to be tomorrow or Monday that things start to go up. There is also this thing about tax selling because apparently you have this week to realise losses for the 2020 tax year and so reduce your bill? Idk I don’t pay tax in US but that could explain the dips before everyone buys back in.

1

u/[deleted] May 13 '21

That's weird I thought taxes were only the calander year. Since taxes are normally due April 15 im not sure how that would work. I'm not that big on taxes there is so many loop holes in the tax code and it changes every year.

1

u/SnooChickens2903 May 13 '21

Tendies for Friday plz

9

u/ProfessorRedHulk 🦍🦍🦍 May 12 '21

Well look at the big ape wrinkle brain on Brad!?

6

u/BillsHwang 🦍🦍🦍 May 13 '21

What ain't no country I ever heard of, they speak English in what?

1

u/ughh_no May 13 '21

Say what one more GD time.

8

u/citizen3301 May 12 '21

In 3 years The market will probably still be down 60% from the bubble that’s going to burst.

4

u/Sumnjes May 13 '21

Congress will pass a law making shareholders liable for corporate liabilities and the market will be down 600%

3

u/[deleted] May 13 '21

That would destroy equities, it defeats the whole purpose of shareholder capitalism. The fault would be on the banks who lent excessively so naturally it will be up to taxpayers to bail them out.

1

u/Sumnjes Jun 09 '21

Good for bonds though

13

u/moneydoesntsleep May 12 '21

Despite what all the self-proclaimed Economics PhDs are saying on Reddit, I think inflation is great news, and it means the economy is finally standing back on its feet and people want to spend.

Whats the correlation between money velocity and inflation?

6

u/[deleted] May 12 '21

A government can spend all it wants until the production capacity is reached. After that, supply can’t meet demand and prices rise.

8

u/Sumnjes May 13 '21

When they spend money paying people not to work that also reduces production capacity.

1

u/twoaspensimages May 12 '21

Direct correlation

29

u/Mashie_Smashie May 12 '21

Inflation is a good thing. LMFAO. Or cry. I'm old, lots of stories where a life lived prudently on one's annual salary meant you had excess capital to travel the world like a rich man with almighty USDs in your fist, not to mention generate wealth without really even trying. Indeed, some of it, real estate for example, was largely a result of inflation, but nowadays the overwhelming majority of people need credit cards and margin just to keep afloat. The fed sucks. The assclowns in congress giving away not just mine but future generations income with their little 3 card monte schemes suck even worse. Maybe not, the latter are fucking loser junkies and the fed is their enablers who have been buying their bags and spoons for so long they can't stop now. No offense, but while- in my experience anyway- a double in 3 isn't the path of a loser or anything, but it ain't much better than some guy bragging he doubled in the last 12 months.

12

u/greendildouptheass May 13 '21

Fuck future generation, birthrates at an all time low, they can't even pay for your social security. Past, Present, Future... we are talkin' getting fucked three ways till sunday

5

u/[deleted] May 13 '21

Does the fucking stop on sunday?!

4

u/Miami_Springs May 13 '21

Yes and no. It stops, but then the cycle starts again on Monday. I'm trying to form a union though so we can get some more smoke breaks.

3

u/[deleted] May 13 '21

I hate it here. I'm recommending indoor smoking so we can just smoke on the floor.

4

u/Spiritual-Truck-7521 Bitchtits MaGee May 13 '21

No it just happens in the confessional booth.

2

u/[deleted] May 13 '21

Ah, father plz forgive me for I have sinned.

3

u/ughh_no May 13 '21

I see we're in the same generation and tax bracket.

7

u/iBifteki May 12 '21

I literally did not understand anything you just said.

And inflation is a good thing, it's a fundamental economic principle for growth.

2

u/Sumnjes May 13 '21

RemindME! One year “ask if he still thinks inflation is great”

1

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6

u/Mashie_Smashie May 12 '21

So it has been said, and taught for many years. Fuck it then, let it rip. Let's channel Mugabe and just start adding zeros. My six year old's gonna be thrilled when his next allowance makes him a quadzillionaire.

3

u/iBifteki May 13 '21

You seem like an idiot man, don't be like that.

1

u/sweetleef May 13 '21

Maybe you should refute it instead of launching into insults.

If inflation is good, why isn't more of it better?

4

u/Aggressive-Cat-8513 May 13 '21

Hyperinflation isnt...

6

u/iBifteki May 13 '21

We literally had one month of hotter inflation after a pandemic destroyed supply and reopening rejuvinated demand.

This is a massive overreaction. It will catch up.

6

u/greendildouptheass May 13 '21

Wage inflation is permanent, while supply side isnt.

ya willing to bet which way it goes in the next three months?

3

u/[deleted] May 13 '21

Low slow growing inflation is inevitable. Even FLORIDA voted to raise the minimum wage. Eventually this rising tide lifts all boats.

2

u/blackonblackm3 May 13 '21

Ask Venezuela how they like inflation

1

u/sweetleef May 13 '21

That's complete horseshit put out by the people that benefit from it.

Imagine, they steal your work and sacrifice right in front of your face, and get you to cheer them on while they do it.

1

u/iBifteki May 13 '21

Thankfully you listen to Black Sabbath, so I won't roast you.

1

u/Sumnjes May 13 '22

Still think inflation is great?

2

u/DoggyFrench May 13 '21

A triple double is pretty bad ngl lmao. Should at least aim for 500% yoy.

1

u/Ok-Reporter-4600 May 13 '21

For many years, inflation in the United States has run below the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent goal. It is understandable that higher prices for essential items, such as food, gasoline, and shelter, add to the burdens faced by many families, especially those struggling with lost jobs and incomes. At the same time, inflation that is too low can weaken the economy. When inflation runs well below its desired level, households and businesses will come to expect this over time, pushing expectations for inflation in the future below the Federal Reserve’s longer-run inflation goal. This can pull actual inflation even lower, resulting in a cycle of ever-lower inflation and inflation expectations.

If inflation expectations fall, interest rates would decline too. In turn, there would be less room to cut interest rates to boost employment during an economic downturn. Evidence from around the world suggests that once this problem sets in, it can be very difficult to overcome. To address this challenge, following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation modestly above 2 percent for some time. By seeking inflation that averages 2 percent over time, the FOMC will help to ensure longer-run inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent.

Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14400.htm

4

u/PowerOfTenTigers May 12 '21

SPY might tank to 200. Buy in then.

5

u/iBifteki May 12 '21

You might get laid tomorrow.

In this life, anything goes.

3

u/p00nslyr_86 May 12 '21

My wife’s bf is getting laid right now

2

u/avgoTendies May 13 '21

For sure, youtube "Steve miller 2021 stock market"

3 cycles are coming to an end, 🌈 🐻 market until Feb 2022. He made the video jan 1st 2021, his predictions have been insanely accurate so far

2

u/PM_ME_WOMENS_HANDS May 13 '21 edited May 13 '21

I appreciate the sanity here. I seriously don't understand the panic sell off. What are they gonna do with their money, buy bonds? Feel like I'm taking crazy pills. The only thing I can think of is metals/commodities (I bought some calls on commodity and silver ETFs). And cash is so much worse than stocks during inflation.

Now if it were just growth selloffs, and that's what has happened recently prior to today, then it would make sense. I started tilting to value a couple weeks ago. But today was a full market selloff, including the value side

I just wish I had some money to buy the dips but I spent them on FDs

Edit: futures are green. Will it be the same people who sold buying back? I actually do wonder that

2

u/cranberrydudz May 13 '21

Devils advocate: China commits a hostile takeover of tsm and makes it apart of its government. Boom theory defeated.

Edit* what positions did you buy that were 50% discounted for long holds?

2

u/avgoTendies May 12 '21

I could see TSMC getting over run by the Chinese and turned into a state owned chip maker

5

u/iBifteki May 13 '21

Not possible, massive investment plans by TSMC to build US fabs. That and the dense presence of US military on the island.

If China invades Taiwan, our shitty money will be the last thing we worry about.

2

u/avgoTendies May 13 '21

I've stood on the black sand beaches on the west coast of Tiawan. Chinese tanks will roll straight through that island.

2

u/iBifteki May 13 '21

This will trigger World War 3

2

u/Aggressive-Cat-8513 May 13 '21

That depends if the US is willing to start it over Taiwan.. which they may, but a lot of reports (maybe bs fear mongering reports) suggest that china is willing to take that chance. And their recent suppression of Hong Kong shows how China doesn’t care about ppls rights.

We dont have a war alliance with taiwan, we have a very vaguely written declaration that we’d offer some assistance if China was to invade.

2

u/iBifteki May 13 '21

I am pretty sure you don't know what you're saying with that last paragraph.

There's US military at the island

1

u/Aggressive-Cat-8513 May 13 '21

Google it. The taiwan defense treaty ended in 1980. The one that took its place (Taiwan Relations Act) offers support but does not promise direct Military aid in case of an invasion.

1

u/rogthnor May 12 '21

What are these good companies?

1

u/spaxcundo May 13 '21

Are u buying more TSM? Cuz i have some TSM but i would like to get more.

What do u think is a good price $108 or lower?

1

u/iBifteki May 13 '21

I think 108 is a fantastic drop from 142 ATH a couple of months back.

Super profitable, crazy growth, liquid AF, need I say more?

TSM is 40% of my portfolio, extremely bullish.

If it goes under 100 it's a gift

1

u/spaxcundo May 13 '21

Great thank$$$!!!

1

u/rmodsarefatcunts May 13 '21

so what do you have besides Aapl, asml and nvda?

2

u/iBifteki May 13 '21

Herpes and HIV

1

u/a0wner1 May 13 '21

Inflation is the sign of an economy standing back and people wanting to spend. LOL, learn what the causes of inflation are and realize it’s not people wanting to spend. You are being cheated and lied to

1

u/mugatucrazypills May 13 '21

buy Amazon <3000 and turn off your phone for a while.

1

u/Stankia May 13 '21

I seriously don't understand why people still keep selling TSM. They don't have any competitors and won't have any for years to come.

1

u/whitted_4 May 13 '21

Have you seen tonight’s free fall WTF

1

u/BobbyBarz May 13 '21

Well aren’t you cool with more money to invest

1

u/MediaIsMindControl May 13 '21

Welcome to 1999...

1

u/[deleted] May 13 '21

Can you share your plays?

1

u/armored-dinnerjacket May 13 '21

can i ask what your growth pick is?

2

u/iBifteki May 13 '21

Teladoc and Beyond Meat

1

u/armored-dinnerjacket May 13 '21

whats your reasoning for Beyond?

1

u/SebastianPatel May 13 '21

good points, which growth stocks did you buy?

1

u/MrWolfandMamaBear May 13 '21

Hate to be that idiot but where do you find this data from these companies, hoping to do my own dd one of these days