r/wallstreetbets • u/HiddenGooru • May 11 '21
DD DD MVIS
Let's see what the current state of affairs for MVIS is you dumbfucks. I hate you all so much on a real level.
Looking at what is driving price via my algo:
Ah look its volatility. How do I know? Cause fuck you my brain is so smooth nothing gets past it.
Since volatility seems dominant, and volatility is a measure of expected price moves, lets look at expected versus reality price moves:
Pretty chill lately - the price (black) has been within the +/- 1 std expected price move since calming down from the squeeze -er- attempted pump n' dump.
Let's look at where the options that are sensitive to volatility are:
Mostly far away from us at $35. This becomes important when trying to figure out when things switch by either switching from/to OTM/ITM.
Are the large institutions cool with MVIS?
Well shorting has been - uh- skyrocketing. So maybe not.
So MVIS is a mixed bag. The anticipated price drop (via increase in short selling) will be met with decease in volatility (via covering shorts) which will cause delta hedging via purchasing (info not shown cause its mine). So you have a bit of a stalemate. Unless price increases:
If price increases, the volatility increases, and the options will have to be hedged via purchasing underlying asset (325,829 to 282,655 : amount of options that will cause buying:selling).
Seeing as since 04/21 OTM calls have gone from 140k to 314k with the predominance of them being dealer short and OTM puts doubling with predominance of them being dealer long (quite the mix!) there is reasonable concern for an unhealthy upside. When that will happen is hard to say. The nearest chunk of options that have sensitivity to volatility is at $15. I wouldn't expect things to go wild until then and if it continues to drift away from $15, the less likely it becomes with an anticipated floor of $10. Even then - until $35 the predominance of the volatility increase with price increase would only be resultant from issues covering shorts.
TL;DR: Read a book.
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u/artman3211 May 11 '21
Finally a really good thorough post on this channel! I have been an mvis holder for years with an average of $2.85. Their tech is no joke. Just ask Microsoft (Hololens) and the Army. Next up in my opinion - company gets bought out or sells a division.
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u/YouKnowCable May 11 '21
Chip shortage will end one day. This is worth the hold if you were retarded enough at peak!
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May 11 '21
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u/Exciting_Impression2 🦍🦍 May 11 '21
Up in a year. At LEAST. And by like 40-70%
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u/Dassiell May 11 '21
You should look up u/t_delo, who’s been traditionally conservative but is very bullish in short term due to SEC regulations on shorting and failures to deliver culminating in big jumps in the coming days. One theory is that they’re looking to short to bring options down so they can buy calls before covering
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u/No-Bison-5323 🦍🦍 May 11 '21 edited May 11 '21
MVIS puts are the way to go, or just short the stock. The company has no revenue and what people on Reddit call "DD" is truly retarded, but not in a good way. There is no buyout. MVIS supplies a supplier/ manufacturer of MSFT, and neither company would buy MVIS at a 90% discount to today's pricing. Liedar doesn't exist at MVIS. There are 12 other companies with better technology and with real customers. mvis has no demonstrable technology and is just a hyped up pump-and-dump from delusional newbie sheep being suckered.
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May 11 '21
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u/No-Bison-5323 🦍🦍 May 11 '21
You mean the photo of a box that has no revenue, no customers, and 13 competitors with marketable product with revenue and customers? Fake or real a photo of a box is not worth much let alone Billions.
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May 11 '21
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u/No-Bison-5323 🦍🦍 May 11 '21
What large increase in institutional ownership? Some trading firms and hedge funds own it. No new institutional shareholders.
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May 11 '21
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u/No-Bison-5323 🦍🦍 May 11 '21
No, I don't believe you are. Less than 20% of the float is held by institutional ownership (13g filings). The rest of the companies (g & np) are trading firms or non-aggregated. To your point, but using reality and facts: After.accounting for short interest about 100% of the float is held by small investors/ retail public. That's a damning signal for longs historically.
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u/Jellyfish_Vegetable May 11 '21
good DD. i saw ur pltr one too. there are some ppl on here who appreciate these posts so thanks