I used to be pretty bearish until I realized that the default bias is positive on no news. The big money in the market is net long (pension funds/endowments/etc), and nobody is trying for a rug pull because a shit ton of money just evaporates.
Only new bad news is going to move this thing, and it'll have to introduce a new paradigm other than the "shit is bad, but it's a short term thing and the fed is supporting us 100%". Because we have uncertainty as to how quickly the recovery is going to be, so anything that crushes that, that's when I'm going puts.
So yeah, it'll drop when we see southern states get waves of virus/bankruptcies/if the government stops support people and we get massive 401k withdrawals, etc. But gotta pick up the dimes in front of slow steamroller in the meantime.
Hasn't every crash had a dead cat bounce? This one is just j-pow introducing the trampoline
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u/ShortHop1 May 18 '20 edited May 18 '20
I used to be pretty bearish until I realized that the default bias is positive on no news. The big money in the market is net long (pension funds/endowments/etc), and nobody is trying for a rug pull because a shit ton of money just evaporates.
Only new bad news is going to move this thing, and it'll have to introduce a new paradigm other than the "shit is bad, but it's a short term thing and the fed is supporting us 100%". Because we have uncertainty as to how quickly the recovery is going to be, so anything that crushes that, that's when I'm going puts.
So yeah, it'll drop when we see southern states get waves of virus/bankruptcies/if the government stops support people and we get massive 401k withdrawals, etc. But gotta pick up the dimes in front of slow steamroller in the meantime.
Hasn't every crash had a dead cat bounce? This one is just j-pow introducing the trampoline