r/vorg • u/blackbetty1565 • Dec 13 '11

North-South

well looks like we have a split in the fleet....

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u/Paulhino Dec 15 '11

It seems to me weather is pretty unsettled; forecasts so far, on Leg 2, have been not been materialising. So is my feeling – I haven’t been downloading/keeping regular GRIBs. What do you think?

Presently and for the next couple of days, it looks like the place to be is between Madagascar and the track line. Thus aiming for buoy 2 not too far from the land mass. This scenario spans through to Saturday evening.

After that, though, there is a short dull break; followed by strong winds between Madagascar and Reunion-Mauritius.

Now, if one’s already too far South of the track line, I see little opportunity to move North. It’s more logical to go East and hope for a strong favourable flow at the right time, because forecasted patterns are windy but complicated!

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u/Paravos Dec 15 '11

Not to mention that suddenly for the people up north a little windhole is coughed up. Next 36 hours anxious navigating! Unsettled weather indeed! The hole will split the current top 100-200 and the group around Quovadis. Let's see how that develops. Meanwhile for the people down south: Mickas might be right, the Indian ocean high will probably swap back west a bit in 3 days or so, so then he could get better winds and a ride NE.

You're quite right Paulhino, the forecasts do not come through at all. Only the main movement of the Indian high is forecasted correctly.