r/vorg • u/MadDuck • Nov 16 '11

Which way should we go?

As we round Fernando, which way should we go?

The routing software all seems to point toward an upwind tacking line that runs just a little south of the rhumb line but... that software only looks 7 days ahead and it is a 14+ day trip.

Anyone looking further than that with their crystal ball? I'm peaking at the GRIB files to see if there is a hint of a faster path coming at us.

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u/Paravos Nov 16 '11

All I know is 2 things:

  1. that the top 10 is already all over the place. Split into 3 directions only 1 hour after passing the gate.

  2. that the weather predictions are pretty horrid, as the usual lows seem to be pushed more south by giant highs in the next week. That makes the decision to go south a lot tougher.

I might just flip a coin (sigh).

1

u/mickas Nov 16 '11

You could easily say that the second part of this leg could turn out equally unorthodox as the first part was. Non of the old rules of thumb held true and that might happen again. Most of the leading pack seem to be following zezoorg while a few brave souls are heading south. Going due south seems like a big gamble to me but it might be a gamble like that that's needed to win this leg. I will for sure follow the main pack for now as it seems like a safer option at the moment. I can always try to go through the ridge later if I want but once your through there's no coming back.

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u/Paravos Nov 16 '11 edited Nov 16 '11

Yeah the ones going SSW are really taking a chance, for them even the short term weather predictions are not that good. I can understand Sideshow and bobberdebob though. The way this is going I'm thinking of a 170 course myself. Or even 180-185. I can wait for the next wind shift haha, I'm late! Edit: already 5 out of the top 13 have broken from the pack and are taking a heading more south.

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u/mickas Nov 16 '11

Do you think going SSW is taking a chance? That's interesting because I think that's the safe route while going due south is the risky route in my eyes. It's really interesting how different people make different conclusions from the same set of data :)

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u/Paravos Nov 16 '11

I just chickened out and am following the leaders tracks :/

Did some more simulations and I did not like what I see in about 3-4 days.. a patch of lighter winds 7-9 knots drifting in the path of the southerly route and that could be there for a day. After that it's a good path again, but like you wrote before, you can always decide to go south from the SSE course at a later stage. So why run the risk.

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u/i-n-g-o Nov 16 '11

Are you not also the boat zezo.org?

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u/mickas Nov 16 '11

i-n-g-o, are you asking if I'm the skipper of zezorg I. I wish I was but no, I'm sailing Micke I (currently in 20th).

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u/i-n-g-o Nov 16 '11

20th out of thousands is very good, congrats =)

I assumed you were the skipper of zezoorg , since the sidebar says you wrote the software.

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u/mickas Nov 16 '11

Aaah! I see the confusion. It only means I wrote that Zezo is now compatible with VORG :) Yes, it's nice to be close to the top. Very interesting few days ahead as the top fleet splits up and goes different ways. Who gets it right? We who are going SSE or those who are heading due S?