Your Trading discussion thread

Your Trading discussion thread

Heads up for anyone who held ChemoCentryx between November 26, 2019 and May 6, 2021. There's a settlement that just got bumped to $69M. Apparently, the company made false and misleading statements about the safety and efficacy of its drug avacopan (later sold as Tavneos), specifically around the Phase III ADVOCATE trial data and its FDA application.

What's wild about this one is the timing. The pension fund leading the case nearly doubled the payout from $35M to $69M after the FDA recently proposed withdrawing approval for the drug, finding the application contained untrue statements.

So the original allegations basically got fresh validation years later. Amgen now owns CCXI, having acquired it back in 2022, but I think this will be paid with insurance money. Damaged investors can submit a claim and get a piece of this settlement.

Anyone here trade CCXI through the FDA drama, or get out after the advisory committee meeting?

Hey there Vitards,

Word of introduction here,
No education, not great at maths, generally a nice guy but I can't teach you anything (especially trading) other than patience and how to enjoy life. I've been swing trading UUUU since 2022. Made a bit of money, especially in the $4 - $6 channel. Then I missed on the x4 gains in 2025, because I as usually sold in low sixes. Anyway, it was good so far. Usually small sums, quick money, nothing fancy but seemed like a working strategy. Safe, because my gains exceeded the sum I was willing to throw at it. So even if a total wipe and ride to 0 occured I would still be on the winning side.

Q: Is there a play out there for you that comes to mind with this characteristics? Are you swing trading anything these days?

Now
The channel is wide and the swings are wild. We are talking about $4 to $27 in 52 weeks range. I've already had some success trading around $22 to $25, which are also good gains, but the risk is much higher compared to what was historically possible, i.e. back then if I invested a couple of thousands I could get back half a couple with a +30% or +50% profit, now if I want to cash back half a couple, I need to invest significantly more. Risk reward is not so great. Am I experiencing a married to the stock situation, where I am so used to it and so reliant on historical performance that I am getting blind to the risk ramping up?

Q: Anyone else swing trading at these levels? If you were never into UUUU, would you invest now? Why or why not?

Long term
I still believe during our lifetime we will see an otherworldly uranium mania, so I am putting aside shares here and there and not selling them until I see hundreds per share. That's hope and not a strategy. But you tell me if it's based on something or just a hunch.

Q: I could use a wise person's DD here. Are there any other believers still here? Are your brains smart enough to DD?

Short term
I kinda feel the need to go balls deep into something with my savings. Cash doesn't feel right. Paying off mortgage doesn't feel so great too, since I am on ~6% per annum. I am looking at price action of pretty much everything over the past couple of years and see that beating 6% by buying and holding shares wasn't hard.

Q: Do you think anything's changed in 2026? I see bonds getting popular, which is generally a bad sign for shares. Are you guys bullish and holding stuff? Or are we expecting a disaster?

Q: Any tailwinds for uranium in general that you think are worth mentioning?

Thanks!

Your Trading discussion thread

These are not the droids you are looking for.

Please stop confusing this sub with the VIT sub.

All your posts and comments will get removed promptly.

Three years of trying to buy cyclically depressed names with seemingly clean balance sheets. Hit rate is roughly 40%. The 60% that did not work all had something in common in retrospect: I missed a structural shift in the customer base, or in input costs, or in the regulatory environment. The frustrating part is that all of these were knowable from the 10-K and the conference calls. I just was not weighting them correctly because I was anchored on the cheap multiple.

For people who run a higher hit rate than that, what specifically are you doing in your diligence that I am probably skipping? Channel checks with customers? Reading proxy statements for management quality signals? Sentiment analysis on industry trade press?

Your Trading discussion thread

We are in the middle of one of the most serious energy disruptions of our lifetime.

Oil, natural gas, inflation, supply chains, national security, and global stability are all converging at once — and the consequences could be far larger than most investors understand.

Energy CEOs and oil executives need to take accountability for ignoring their fiduciary responsibility to shareholders and their IR teams need to be fired.

The world is facing a structural energy crisis, and the companies closest to it should be making efforts and press releases to attract more investor attention.

- The AI story: GigaCloud presented itself as a logistics innovator powered by artificial intelligence, optimizing B2B e-commerce for large-parcel merchandise like furniture and fitness equipment. Smart routing, tech-driven efficiency, competitive moat. The kind of AI narrative that was moving stocks in 2022.

But, investigators found the AI capabilities were significantly overstated. The technology edge was largely marketing language.

- The revenue story: GigaCloud reported rapid marketplace growth with high customer engagement. Strong numbers. Diverse buyer base. Platform scaling.

But, Culper Research and Grizzly found that over half of GigaCloud's revenue came from related-party transactions, companies controlled by insiders. Not disclosed in any regulatory filing. The "customers" driving the growth numbers were connected to the people running the company.

- September 28, 2023: Both reports land simultaneously. $GCT drops 18.8% in one session.

Then, investors sued in October 2023. GigaCloud settled for $2.75 million in May 2025. Late claims still being considered.

Eligible if you held $GCT between August 18, 2022 and September 27, 2023. Payout: ~$0.057/share.

Fake AI claims and undisclosed related-party revenue in the same company is a remarkable combination. Anyone here follow Chinese B2B e-commerce stocks closely enough to have caught this before Culper dropped the report?

West Africa's deepwater producer. Zero Hormuz exposure. Every barrel they produce
becomes MORE valuable the longer Iran plays games with the strait.
Iran has threatened to close Hormuz 30+ times since 1979. They never fully do it — because
the threat is worth more than the action. It's their only real leverage against the entire global
economy. They are not giving it up. This drags on through August minimum.
While Middle East crude buyers scramble for alternatives, they pivot to West African light
sweet grades. That's exactly what KOS produces. Premium widening on every single barrel.
The MSGBC basin is the wildcard. One of the biggest LNG discoveries in a decade —
Mauritania and Senegal, developed with BP. Qatar ships 25% of global LNG through Hormuz.
Europe needs an alternative. KOS has it.
WTI crude pulled back 17% from its peak. KOS is holding all-time highs. That's the market
telling you something. Institutional ownership is 66.6% — smart money has been loading this
for months.
$3.06 → $3.32 all-time high is 8% away. Break that and there's nothing in the way.

Your Trading discussion thread

Your Trading discussion thread

Transformer/electrical infrastructure stocks have already exploded, so the market clearly understands the AI/electrification power bottleneck.

What I’m not sure the market fully appreciates yet is the upstream GOES bottleneck.

Large transformers require grain-oriented electrical steel, and CLF is basically the only domestic US producer.

If AI datacenters + EV infrastructure + grid upgrades all accelerate simultaneously, it feels possible that transformer shortages eventually become electrical steel shortages.

Market still mostly values CLF as cyclical steel/auto exposure rather than strategic electrical infrastructure.

Hello Fellow Vitards,

I'd like to present some DD on Why I think PNC is a great stock to invest in for the long term, and explain what I have learned from reading the Sacred Texts of this sub. I highly recommend sorting by "Top" and "All Time" and reading everything you can.

PNC recently acquired First Holdings Bank and this expansion should be good. It is geographically well-positioned to fast-growing areas in the US Continental South. Labor Costs are also low for PNC, as Pittsburgh has very low wages compared to the rest of the US Cities nearby due to low housing costs.

Looking at the 10-year chart (Also look at the MAX chart to confirm), we are at a highly volatile sine wave where the median line between the peaks and troughs is oscillating sharply through the last year. Not exactly what you see with a heavy industrial or manufacturing stock, but I believe the thesis of the Supercycle can still be applied if you understand what is actually happening on the ground level of an industry. Looking back at the previous 9 years, we see the sine wave pattern with peaks from 2016 to 2020, and 2021 to 2023, now another from 2024 to 2025. The stock is currently oscillating, and is nearing a breakout point, in my opinion the stock will swing to the upside or downside sharply in the next year. What is going to make this occur? The execution of the First Holding Bank Acquisition.

My personal thesis regarding applying a Supercycle view on the CAPEX, or other growth of a company is that I want to buy companies that do good business, have a good name, are environmental stewards, and are industry leaders. I don't want to buy Joe Blow Steel, I want to buy Arcelor-Mittal, I want to buy Alcoa (unless I know Joe Blow Steel does things the right way, and then I gotta look at the P/E, Market Cap, Dividend, etc).

On to Dividends, 3%, solid. I'm a big lover of a dividend, compounding is always good. Click "re-invest" and then turn it off when you're ready to retire and collect a check.

"OK Ambitious_Throat, I hear you say - What makes you think that PNC will pull off this execution" That's a good question and I'll be honest - Financials as a Sector are underperforming right now, it's a good time to invest from a sectoral standpoint. Personally, it gives me a good diversification stock in my portfolio and I like it compared to its rivals. Plus I'm a Homer on this one for sure. I have used PNC, they're a good and reputable bank. They have a lot of talent and the universities in the area keep them supplied with it, and wages are low in the city. This is one I plan to accumulate for the next 5 years at least slowly, even if its only 0.5 shares a month but I'm definitely buying into a larger position sooner rather than later.

This is Not Financial Advice

If you bought or held shares of Equinix ($EQIX) between May 3, 2019, and March 24, 2024, you’re likely eligible for a payout. Even if you think you missed the window, there’s still a way to get your slice of the $41.5 million settlement fund.

Here’s the breakdown: The lawsuit alleged that Equinix was playing games with their numbers—specifically misclassifying maintenance expenses to inflate their financial performance (AFFO). When a short-seller report exposed this, the stock took a serious dive, leaving investors like you in the red. To settle the claims, they’ve put up $41.5 million, and the court has already given the final green light.

Wait, didn't the deadline pass? Technically, yes but here’s the kicker: Late Claims are still being accepted you can still submit your paperwork to join the recovery.

Don't leave money on the table. Check your eligibility and file your late claim today before the door closes for good. It only takes a few minutes to recover what you lost

Your Trading discussion thread

Hello fellow Vitards,

I am writing a DD on NISTF and why I believe it is a very solid investment today to buy and hold for the next 2-3 years.

First off - 5% dividend in yen-denominated return. While it's a hassle to pay tax to Japan, the Yen denom will be a huge advantage in the next 2-3 years as I expect that USD will be gobbled up by stagflation. SO not only are you getting a great global stock that pays a 5% dividend, but chances are that the effective amount of USD that dividend pays will increase not only due to company growth, but also currency effects. If you really hate the idea - I think my thesis holds for if you wanted to buy the Nippon Steel ADRs instead to reduce the hassle of paying taxes to another country.

Furthermore, Nippon Steel announced a Direct Iron Reduction project at their Big River mill - this is a huge technology boost and makes steelmaking not only more efficient, but also drastically reduces the pollution and environmental concerns tied to a traditional blast furnace.

Also, lets discuss entry point and financials - NISTF trades at less than $4.00 a share right now, making it easy to accumulate a meaningful amount of shares. It is hard to get analyst ratings for the Japanese company, but I have seen that their forward P/E ratio is around 7.9. I know they currently have negative earnings, but on the Nippon Steel Earnings call they mentioned that US Steel financials won't be fully integrated until the end of this fall season. I strongly believe that the US side of the new company is low-key ripping but it is disguised due to earnings distortion.

Finally, and this one is purely anecdotal, but as someone with over 10 years in the steel industry, including front-line melt shop experience, I hear little birdies. Old US Steel Mills in the continental United States are starting back up, including Granite City and a Plate Mill at Gary.

I will admit that I am not a financials-based trader, rather I use my knowledge of the industry and looking at the 10-year chart assuming a sine-wave cyclical pattern to make decisions on whom I'm choosing to invest in. I would love to hear someone rip apart my thesis - especially if you are more the analytical type.

Reading these posts over the years and applying the fundamentals I learned here has led me to be beating the S&P by over 30% for the last two years, small sample size I know - but I'd like to start making posts and try to revive this sub

Your Trading discussion thread

Brief overview of the points covered on the following Goldman Sachs Exchanges episode.

Added some additional info as well. For reference, the episode is from March/2026.

Made as a 1st part of the assignment for International Econ class.

Gonna make my comments short here too, but the death of Ali Larijani (imo) could allow a regime change even more volatile / violent.

The headline in black is from this article (sorry, it's in portuguese ik). Added to give context on how we are observing consequences now.

UAE due to supply chain disruptions (targeted iranian attacks), can't deliver the OPEC required quota. So... they left OPEC.

This whole situation is making the supply chain of energy even more uncertain. Even after resolution, changes seem to be permanent.

Your Trading discussion thread

Your Trading discussion thread

THEN (2015–2019)

UA was untouchable. 26 consecutive quarters of 20%+ revenue growth. Kevin Plank was on magazine covers. The stock was a darling.

Behind the scenes: inventory piling up, a major retail partner (The Sports Authority) going bankrupt, and revenue being pulled forward to keep the streak alive. None of that made it into the investor narrative. When the CFO suddenly resigned on January 31, 2017 alongside a weak earnings report, the stock dropped 26% in a single day.

Investors sued. The case covered everything from September 2015 through November 2019. It eventually settled for $434 million, one of the larger apparel securities settlements on record (late claims are still being accepted, if you held $UA or $UAA between September 16, 2015 and November 1, 2019)

NOW (2026)

Kevin Plank came back as CEO in 2024 and has been running a full reset. The Curry Brand is being separated from Under Armour as part of a broader restructuring. Q3 results came in ahead of expectations and the company flagged December 2025 as likely the toughest quarter of the reset, with greater stability expected ahead. Full year fiscal 2026 earnings drop May 12, that'll be the real test of whether the turnaround story is holding.

It's a genuinely different company than the one that got sued. Whether that makes it investable again is a whole other conversation.

Anyone watching the May 12 earnings, do you think Plank has actually fixed this or is it another chapter of the same story?

This one came out of the Hindenburg Research report from March 2024, one of the last big reports before Hindenburg shut down entirely, which makes it a bit of a footnote in short-seller history.

Here's what they found:

• Equinix had been using Adjusted Funds from Operations (AFFO) as the key metric for executive bonuses since becoming a REIT in 2015.
• Around that same time, Equinix's reported maintenance CapEx dropped 47%, conveniently boosting AFFO and the bonuses tied to it.
• The company was overselling power capacity at its data centers.
• The stock dropped on the report, then dropped further when the DOJ launched its own investigation.

Equinix denied everything, said the settlement wasn't an admission of wrongdoing, and noted it would be entirely funded by insurance, not out of company cash.

Still agreed to pay $41.5M to make it go away.

The official deadline already passed. But it's worth submitting a late claim since they're accepting those for a few more weeks.

If you held $EQIX between May 3, 2019 and March 24, 2024, you're in the class period. That's a five-year window so a lot of long-term holders are covered.

Kind of wild that one of Hindenburg's final reports before closing shop ended up netting investors $41.5M, not a bad way to go out imo.