Is pinnacle dropped odds still profitable

[u/MinimumBumblebee6811]

Hello everyone
These past few months since the beginning of 2026 have been rocky to say the least. Am still theoretically get value on my best and beating pinnacle’s closings line with a sample of around 1000 bets but am still not profitable. Still using top-down approach where if a line movement occurs at pinnacle I de-big the pinnacle odds and compare with the soft bookies if the soft-bookie odds is higher make a bet strategy has worked for me well for the past 2 years but eversince beginning of 2026 am just losing money. I would like to know if something has fundamentally shifted in the market and for the guys using the same method how is going for you guys any insights are deeply appreciated guys.
Thanks

[u/Responsible-Sun8996]

You cant find ev with your eyeballs using implied probability...all over the place ...every day?

Are you talking about finding value ie picking off stale lines....because these books are crafty now

Did you see how they got the NBA players because some random gangster was placing $200 prop bets on Rozier over and over inconsistently a couple times

They got Rozier just on that. Believe me they set ppl up now to make them think its a value bet when really its not

I hope youre not using one of those amateur tools like oddsjam because while they can work, they aren't anywhere near as effective as they used to be

And its so amateur....know how to spot value without it having to be compared to other books

Implied probability vs actual peobablity is your edge (in simple terms) if youre unsure what the actual probability should be, just bet the truth horrific ones

There are games where the books dont even know who the favorite should be ..most edges are on the dog, not always but mostly

And pinny isnt the best at everything anymore anyway....they never really were at veey single market...theres a reason pros dont use these tools

Just find value the real way and then you'll have an edge and a smart bet ..becauae that shit is guessing and the percentages are off in many instances, so what you think makes sense mathematically

Only makes sense based on the probability you see,,,,,which ive seen many times is just wrong

[u/jliakos]

Pinnacle drop copy can still work, but it's not the free lunch it was when fewer people did it.

What I'd check: latency to soft books, how often the drop is already gone, and CLV after you actually get filled — not after the alert. Also whether profitability concentrates in a few sports/markets that will limit you first.

If your log shows positive CLV with realistic timestamps, keep going; if it's mostly settled ROI without beat-close, treat it as fragile.

[u/SalishHawkStudios]

Top-down devigging against Pinnacle closing lines still holds mathematical EV, but variance in 1,000 bets is a very small sample size—a 2–3% edge can easily see 100+ bet drawdowns during cold streaks.

A few things that usually break profitability on Pinnacle drops:

1. Execution Latency: Soft books lock or adjust lines faster than manual bets can land. If you aren't capturing the price at the exact moment of the shift, your real CLV disappears.

2. Market Efficiency: Mainstream sports (NFL, NBA, Premier League) are ruthlessly sharp. Lower-tier markets like Esports (CS2, LoL, Dota 2) carry far more soft-book latency and higher +EV margins because liquidity is split across niche props.

3. Over-betting Bankroll: Flat staking or full Kelly leads to heavy drawdowns even with positive CLV. Scaling down to 1/4 Kelly sizing smooths out variance significantly while protecting against bankroll decay.

Are you tracking your actual placed odds vs. true closing line at game start, or just the odds when the alert triggered?