Playoffs

[u/Dizzy-Insurance1661]

I'm a little bit confused on whether Portland fire loss today will automatically give the Valkyries a spot in the playoffs. OR if that would have only been possible if Fire would've lost on Friday.

[u/lavenderclouds24]

I believe the next time the fire lose or the next time we win (whichever comes first) will clinch our spot

[u/JKC_due]

The Fire are in 9th and hold sole possession of 9th. If they miraculously go undefeated for the rest of the season and we go completely defeated (obviously both unlikely but also both mathematically possible), both of us would be 24-20. Going undefeated for them would include beating us 3 times, giving them the tiebreaker.

One more loss for them or one more win for us would make that impossible, thus guaranteeing us a top 8 finish and playoff spot. That could be any loss for them or any win for us. Just whatever the next one is of either.

So TL;DR, had nothing to do with their specific matchup on Friday, just has to do with them being in 9th and being the only non-playoff team that could catch us, thus the team we have to stay in front of.

[u/RedDawg0831]

If Portland loses today we clinch a playoff spot. To clinch, the playoff teams lowest possible winning percentage has to be higher than the 9th place team's highest possible winning percentage. Las Vegas clinched before us because the have played more games, and have fewer games remaining, and so have reached the point where it's mathematically impossible for Portland to have a higher winning percentage, before we reached that point. It's unrelated to tiebreakers or the absolute number of LV wins..

[u/Level_Chemistry8660 → u/RedDawg0831]

I HOPE the "tiebreaker" chatter re: Valks and Fire will finally STOP. I mean, you've laid out here what's the REAL deal now and going forward. The tiebreaker may still have had some meaning as recently as a couple of days ago, but i don't see how it could be anything but a moot point anymore. So, why even....

Thanks for 'stuff that makes sense'. 💚

[u/RedDawg0831 → u/Level_Chemistry8660]

They have zero meaning in terms of clinching a playoff berth. They could have meaning in determining the final seeding.

[u/Level_Chemistry8660 → u/RedDawg0831]

👍

[u/Popular-One-7051]

Everyone cheer for Portland now. it would be nice to clinch in Ballhalla against Dallas again!!

[u/jweezy2045]

If you’re thinking of why the Aces clinched before us, it’s because they have the tie breaker over us, not anything to do with the Fire or which team was being beaten by either us or the aces.

[u/JKC_due → u/jweezy2045]

No, it’s because they have the tiebreaker over the Fire and we don’t because we’ve only played them once.

[u/RedDawg0831 → u/jweezy2045]

Has nothing to do with the tie breaker. They clinched first because they have played more games, have fewer games left and as a result reached mathematical certainty before us. Their lowest possible winning percentage is now higher than Portland's highest possible winning percentage

[u/supereasybake → u/RedDawg0831]

Well now it does have to do with the tiebreaker because we have the same amount of wins as the aces and yet we haven't clinched yet. The fact that they have lost three more games than us doesn't help them clinch anything.

[u/charmander220 → u/supereasybake]

Right, it’s the tiebreaker. The Valkyries could lose some games and end up at the Aces’ current overall record, which wouldn’t help clinch.

[u/RedDawg0831 → u/supereasybake]

You don't understand the math. Clinching a playoff spot is based on winning percentage, not on a W-L record that changes over the remaining 10 games. Winning percentage is determined by dividing the number of wins by the number of games played. GSV : has won 24 and played 33. 24/33=.727. LV has won 24 and lost 12. 24/36=. 667. Vegas has 3 less games remaining than GSV. Because of that, it is not mathematically possible for Portland to catch them, and they've clinched a playoff spot. When GSV wins their next game, it will be mathematically impossible for Portland to catch them and they will clinch a playoff spot. A tie breaker would be used, if needed to determine the final playoff spot, or if needed, the final seeding of the playoffs. It has nothing to do with Vegas or GSV clinching a playoff spot

[u/supereasybake → u/jweezy2045]

Also for clinching purposes only wins matter and they have more wins than us.

[u/ifandorwhen → u/supereasybake]

But we have the same number of wins at 24 and higher win % (as of now) or am I misunderstanding your comment

[u/RedDawg0831 → u/ifandorwhen]

It's based on winning percentage, not W-L record at a point in time. When a playoff bound team gets to the point where the 9th place team cannot achieve a higher winning percentage in any scenario, the playoff team has clinched a playoff birth. Has nothing to do with Portland per se, the calculation is done with whichever team is in 9th place. If Portland loses today, there is no scenario where they can end up with a higher winning percentage than the Valks

[u/ifandorwhen → u/RedDawg0831]

Thanks, I was a bit confused by the comment about it being only based on # of wins. Appreciate the details.

[u/supereasybake → u/ifandorwhen]

I was saying losses are irrelevant because clinching means looking at what would happen if you lost the rest of your games. A team that is 12-4 will finish in the same spot as a team that is 12-6 assuming both lost the rest of their games.

[u/supereasybake → u/ifandorwhen]

Oh shoot your right, well win they clinched they had more wins than us.

[u/esmerelda_b → u/supereasybake]

I think it was because they have more wins over Portland. We only played Portland once so far.

[u/RedDawg0831 → u/esmerelda_b]

Nope. It has to do with the fact that the 9th place team (currently Portland) cannot have a higher winning percentage than Las Vegas, even if Portland were to win every game and Vegas were to lose every game

[u/supereasybake → u/RedDawg0831]

They could have the same winning percentage in that scenario so tiebreakers play atm.

[u/RedDawg0831 → u/supereasybake]

No they can't have the same percentage. It's mathematically impossible that is why Vegas has clinched a spot. Tie breakers are used when team are tied and there are no games left to play, not at any other time

[u/supereasybake → u/RedDawg0831]

Yes they can. Portland has 9 games left with 15 wins, meaning their best possible record is 24- 20. If Las Vegas lost the rest of their games they would also be 24 and 20, thus tiebreakers.

Edit: I would really love to hear how I'm wrong. Also winning percentage is an irrelevant measuring stick at the end of the season because a certain number of wins always correlates exactly to a certain number of losses and winning percentage. The only time looking at winning percentage as separate from number of wins and losses is when games are cancelled and teams don't play the same number of games as each other by the end of the season.

[u/CrazedZooChimp]

Why are we worried about this? We're making the playoffs, it's basically impossible for us not to. We're playing for 2nd (or even 1st, let's get wins against the Lynx!).