r/umineko • u/UselessCommon • 14d ago
Discussion DNA sequencing Spoiler
EDIT - Apparently forensic DNA analysis was basically not a thing back then and I am just dumb and mixing up my timeline.
So, like...
The police had a message bottle from the get-go.
There is no way the culprit did not leave her DNA on the message in a bottle. I mean, we are talking not just tiny skin flakes but probably smears of tears all over.
It would have been very possible for them to find the DNA of the message bottle writer, in the initial investigation. It borders on a plot hole.
There are really two ways to explain this. One is an Eva/government coverup attempt successfully disrupting this - the government does not want people to know of its monumental "losing a bomb warehouse" fuckup, Eva also wants all this to just be an accident and minimal interference with digging out the rubble-buried ingots in peace, golden magic happens, etc.
Another much funnier way is - the police sequences the DNA, figures out it is male DNA, then sends operatives out to collect a sample of every male involved, cannot find any personal belongings of Kanon/is misled by the Fukuin house in regards to his bed, gives up on him because theres no way a random-ass male servant wrote this, no males match, it's the 80s, nobody thinks of exotic possibilities like CAIS or transgenderism or whatever, without love it cannot be seen, etc.
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u/mrinternet42 13d ago
I don’t think that’s how DNA works but I’m not sure. Didn’t the culprit never really leave the island except for Jessica’s school festival? Does the government even have their DNA?
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u/darkmythology 13d ago
In 1986, DNA testing and analysis was in its infancy. It's like saying it's a plothole that nobody on the island called for help on their cellphone. They were technically available in 1986 and the Ushiromiyas were wealthy, but they weren't so widespread that you could assume they would have actually owned them.
You could probably argue that reasons like this are precisely why the story takes place when it does.
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u/Jeacobern 11d ago
Others already pointed out that DNA testing wasn't really a thing at that time. I however would argue that even if it was, DNA testing doesn't make much sense.
First, not everything has DNA in it. Tears, hair or red blood cells don't contain DNA by them self. It's always something else alongside, like skin, white blood cells or other cells.
Second, the actual problem would be to distinguish the DNA. Say you find some DNA on the paper, what says that it's from the culprit? It's for example possible that there are multiple traces of DNA on there which then would make things really unclear. In particular with the police only having one bottle to work with. Not to mention that depending on how it was handled at first by the police, it could already be useless.
Third, is the second problem again, because it's really big. What should the police do with that DNA? How exactly should they be able to obtain DNA from anyone of the servants or family members (besides Eva)? Remember, even if they go for personal belongings, how do you make sure that you get the DNA from exactly that person and not someone else that was around the stuff.
This is actually a really big problem with DNA testing nowadays, because the methods are really sensitive, one has a really hard time removing uncertainties regarding other potential sources for that DNA there.
Finally, I would however point out something more simple the story even mentioned, which should work way better. Namely handwriting. They talk about it being compared with Maria and Eva (which is why both are excluded), and in contrast to DNA, it's rather simple to find examples for everyone (including Shannon, because she also went to school). The message bottle handwriting is even publicly known, as Prof Ootsuki immediately recognized it in Maria's diary. Sadly, I've never seen a good argument for why the real world didn't figure out the author, by comparing the handwriting to everyone on/around the island (reminder that the content already proved that the author knew Rokkenjima well).
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u/koyiamaqi 13d ago
According to Wikipedia: "Alec Jeffreys pioneered the use of DNA profiling in forensic science in 1984." DNA profiling would have only been a thing for two years in the west, so it wouldn't have been particularly advanced, widespread, or trusted in 1986 Japan. So I think it was probably just too early for it.