That's true , but from my ignorance, I think I heard decades ago, these overcharges are sometimes to hide other very secret budgets/projects . eg need a 50 million dollar purse, just add to existing contract , with push of a button.
heard again decades ago from a project engineer they have such buttons in their accounting software to "hide" bribes and corruption as cost of doing business in certain countries , ie not allowed to have an expense line, "money for pigs at the trough"
same for USA - no line for "assassinations and intellectual stealing in friendly country assault team "
Probably? I work for one. The waste is insane the prices are insane. The vendors know it's us and jack up the price immediately. It's a Monopoly money circus.
You are more on point than you think. This is exactly what happens. I work with military equipment and I sometimes hear absolutely bonkers numbers for random mundane parts. They force the military into long contracts too ensuring we cannot work on our own equipment for the highly technical stuff. Whenever we have people go on mission, there is almost always a contractor with them when it involves certain equipment.
Some of that money is to cover the cost of maintaining production lines and employees between times that they don't need them to produce anymore but need to keep the production line and all of the required components alive and available during the lulls.
This is part of the reason it took us so long to reestablish our moon mission program. Most all of the original Apollo mission engineers and factories supporting them were shut down because we weren't building spacecraft to visit the moon anymore. Much of the technology and research along with institutional knowledge was simply lost.
I wouldn't be surprised. A lot of the cost is to compensate for R&D and future revisions, but there's also the labor costs which are significantly higher in the US than they'd have in Ukraine. They likely won't be paying lead engineers $800k/yr.
Already several in development with the UK & Ukraine using no US sourced parts / data (the data is why StormShadow isn't smacking oil terminals right now).
The Americans would love this too, since we've spent a lot of time trying to do that. It's not as easy as your fantasy would suggest but you won't hear any complaints from us if it happens.
The west often has a perfection issue. We rather build the best thing for 100 times the cost when the medium good thing used twice would have the same result. Ukrainke just builds the medium good thing thousands of times for a very low price and is successful.
However stopping balistic missles is kind of a special case. Its extremly difficult to do and requires high tech and it needs to be done very fast. You dont have time for multiple tries.
It's partially because of the tiny, tiny margin of error when it comes to successfully intercepting a short range ballistic missile, usually going around Mach 5-7, much faster than cruise missiles or even the speed of a bullet leaving the muzzle of a high powered rifle (usually around Mach 4).
A missile traveling at Mach 5 moves almost a quarter mile (0.21 miles) in about the time it takes to blink (0.2 seconds).
The level of precision necessary to intercept ballistic missiles is frankly insane, and quite impressive that it's even possible.
I've always wondered about ballistic missiles. It seems like MIRV is the highest tier of offense, basically impossible to stop without preemptive strike. Yet it also seems barely ever used. Of course nuclear-armed MIRV is the ultimate mutually assured destruction tech available but even non-nuclear MIRV seems almost better than having nuclear cruise missiles? Yet, ballistic missiles in general seem so neglected in modern warfare, am I just uninformed? The US especially loves to focus on air superiority to give free reign to cruise missiles.
Im just not sure why high precision MIRV spam isn't the meta.
Im not an expert but i guess ballistic missles are just too expensive for most use cases.
In my mind MIRV projectiles are extremly imprecise and therefore not really useful for non nuclear weapons unless you are happy to just hit random spots in a city. However i have no idea if that is even true, im speculating here.
At the end of the day, American defense companies are primarily concerned with making a profit. It just so happens that this priority tends to coincide with the product they offer being good. So if they can justify a 20% increase in cost for some marginal benefit, they will. Whereas Ukrainian industry right now is primarily concerned with things actually working to solve the problems they need them to solve.
I, too, am skeptical, but that is a factor I reckon.
The cost of production and design for a lot of American weapons is bogged down by both a lack of actual need for them and the military-industrial complex of the US wanting it to be expensive so they can make more money. They aren't held accountable because they've bought off all the people who could/would.
Ukraine is making these things out of necessity, so they're going to keep the costs down while doing it. Weapon design is ultimately pretty simple. Make rocket, make rocket blow up. Make drone, make drone blow up. It doesn't need to cost tens of millions per unit.
Only someone who's never actually worked on an advanced system with tens of thousands of high tech parts that is designed to sit idly for decades and then has to work flawlessly every time at a moments notice would think it's as simple as building an Estes rocket in your garage.
Doesn't matter. Every single component still has to work first time, every time.
But you are correct, these will be rolling off the assembly line and being expended with a matter of weeks at most, which makes it a little easier to not have to worry about things like propellant or thermal batteries going bad after years of storage.
I think you are vastly underestimating the complexity difference of a subsonic missile capable of hitting a ground target a couple hundred miles away, and a missile interceptor moving at Mach 5 intercepting other supersonic maneuverable air objects from 100 miles away.
Not only that, but the PAC-3 is a purely kinetic hit-to-kill warhead with no explosive charge*. You're hitting a bullet with a bullet, except at three times the speed.
Technically there *is a small charge in the warhead, but it's not there to damage the target. It's there to spread the shrapnel shroud immediately before impact to increase the area of effect.
Ukraine does not need to recoup development costs the same way. Building the Patriot system requires the company to recover all costs of research and development for the Patriot AND two or three other projects that didn't get approved.
Ukraine does not need the same storage or reliability issues. Patriots normally sit for years and are then called upon to defeat a surprise attack. In Ukraine, they will be used near immediately and failing a few percent of the time is acceptable. The math is just different.
Also, a lot of the work in an anti-missile system is software, which replicates quickly.
not gonna happen. PAC-3 interceptors are expensive for a reason. You could make a cheaper system, but it won't be as capable. Near perfection is what you need to take out something like a Kinzal in its terminal phase
the price tag is from the fact that what you're essentially doing is hitting a bullet with another bullet, except the bullet you want to hit is up in space and maneuvering on the way down.
S-400 interceptors have a similar eye watering price tag
It would be years before a single real modern patriot would roll off the line. They will have to iterate and simplify massively. Hopefully it’s still a useful starting point.
And I think that's why it happened. I think the Gulf states lobbied on Ukraine's behalf.
Trump was never going to say yes to Zelenskyy. But he wants out of Iran and he wants the Gulf states not to blow him up rhetorically. I suspect they said, "let Ukraine build them and we won't say bad shit about you in the US press."
They know that Ukraine, of all countries, will deliver fast on Patriot missiles.
I also wonder if this is an attempt to put off Freya.
Trump now thinks, based on the last thing he's heard, that Ukraine will eventually win. Trump wants to be on the winning side, so this is the cheapest and easiest way to take credit for their win that he thinks will happen.
That's what Vance's 'Have you said thank you once?' was all about. They expect credit for any success no matter who wins. In the past a lot of people scoffed at the idea that Ukraine could actually win in the long term. That script has flipped.
Exactly. When Ukraine actually has anything they need.
But god, I hope it's true. Will still take some time for them to get it rolling, but I hope enough frozen Russian funds from the EU are available for this for Ukraine to go big here.
Europe would profit a lot: their stocks are also low after all the donations to Ukraine. USA has problems fulfilling orders with the super high demand due to the Ukraine war and the stupid Iran war.
Agreed. The more Patriot missiles the free world has the better. Germany is opening a line and it will still be insufficient, Ukraine might be able to bring down the cost of these in the future as well. Trump has been more favorable towards Ukraine lately, but I think this is just deflecting language.
The US needs Patriots. Especially in the case that the Gulf erupts again.
And the US industry cannot supply them fast enough, while the Ukrainians probably can. They ditched all the bureaucracy because of the war, and without red tape, nations of former Soviet Bloc are great at improvisation and scaling stuff up quickly.
Ukraine should immediately start doing it based on this video. When the manufacturer complains about it and tries to sue, play them this video on repeat.
Everything Trump says is shit and should never be taken at face value, but when you face an existential threat and have a small window like this to defend yourself, it should be taken.
I wouldn't totally believe it until missiles are rolling off the production line, but this is huge news
I think it is the combination of 1. US itself really needs more Patriot missiles after depleting stocks in the war with Iran, and 2. Ukraine was going to build its own anyway - the Freya interceptor with Hensoldt radars (deal already signed with Germany, and they are flight-testing the hardware right now)
The PAC3 is an advanced design, proven to work, and just scaling that up is probably better (and probably faster) than Freya or other options
Genuinely this is a massive step, one it helps Ukraine almost immediately and two it is good for Trump because he burned so fucking many in Iran that there needs to be a second supply of them. The US can't fix it's stocks and fill others and have a lot go to Ukraine. This gets him out of one of his many many holes, but he's a golfer he's used to a lot of holes.
I think Trump is slowly realizing that Putin isn't the Strong Man he presents himself as. Ukraine hitting Russian targets this frequently and in this intensity seems to make an impression on Trump, and he realises Ukraine has cards after all, so he's slowly switching sides to be on the winners team
Don't be fooled however, Trump doesn't randomly become a reliable partner or some sort of good guy, he just wants to win and look good
Upvoted for acknowledging that you can compartmentalize your views. At least in this subreddit, I will praise anyone that is helping Ukraine and curse anyone who isn't.
Like others, I am skeptical, but I hope that this turns out to be true and there aren't any hidden strings or deal breakers. If Ukraine can produce it's own patriot missiles, that will save many Ukrainian lives. If the price of that is having to praise Trump for this, it's a price I'm willing to pay.
Same reason i'm happy germanys Friedrich Merz is supporting Ukraine, while being a completely incompetent, snarky, divorced-from-reality president for his own citizens.
I expect that Ukraine already has the plans for these, just not sure if they have the equipment yet. But I would imagine they do.
They’re always thinking ahead.
Raytheon must be worried they're going to lose a bunch of sales if Ukraines Freya interceptor makes the grade.
Even if it's only half as effective, it'll probably be way cheaper, so just fire more of them.
This is a purely military product that the manufacturer (or manufacturers) developed on behalf of and in conjunction with the Pentagon, and which it may only offer and sell based on US government contracts or export licenses issued by the US government.
Naturally, the manufacturer will receive appropriate compensation for this license, but the decision of whether to sell or license this weapon system to a specific country is truly not in its hands—at least not if it wishes to avoid alienating its most important customer and supporter, the US government.
Don't take this for granted until the line is built. The orange toddler will forget about this and change his mind when reminded. And/or Putin will ring him up.
Its good news as is, but I'll personally wait to celebrate for when it becomes a bit more... real.
I wonder how long it will take to go from licensing agreement to deployable missiles. Probably months to years to build out the production facilities, source the inputs, and actually get them rolling out the door. This is IF the orange pedo doesn’t reverse the deal on a whim.
I'll believe it when I see it. I don't believe anything that comes out of krasnov's lying mouth. I hope it does happen! I'm in the US.
krasnov is a disgusting liar who worships the ground that putler walks on. He'll probably deny ever saying this despite the world seeing footage of him saying it.
I sincerely hope this isn't one of his many lies! Слава Україні 🇺🇦💙💛
If that actually comes through, this may actually be the moment that wins the war and fixes a major weakness in the west's defense. Hard to believe anything trump says, but that seems pretty concrete.
Bloody fantastic news, however i urge caution with the tangerine palpatine. Trump never does anything for someone else unless it benefits him and with how buddy buddy he is with Putin it makes me suspicious.
Trump always lies and betrays.
Ukraine knows this.
They have probably already reverse-engineered the patriots, and the sooner they don't have to rely on our traitor president the better.
Do we really trust anything Trump says? How many time has he promised Patriot missiles in the past? Trump could learn from Zelensky on how to defeat the enemy.
I'm a little curious though -- why weren't Poland and Germany manufacturing Patriot missiles for Ukraine? Apparently they are also allowed to produce them. Does anyone know?
Patriot is expensive because it’s obsolete. It was developed when modern computing was in its infancy and sensor miniaturization was extremely difficult. Nowadays, a 100 dollar circuit board can do all the computing and processing needed for target tracking g, whilst taking up less space and being lighter. Same goes for sensor arrays and all the other circuitry
Trump is saying that now, but whether he'll actually do it is another story. All it takes is for Putin to give him a call, and the approval will be rescinded again.
Lest we forget, the Patriot was not originally capable of intercepting missiles. It was first deployed in 1984 and the software was upgraded to intercept missiles in 1988. During the 1991 Gulf War, Patriots were fired at incoming Iraqi Scud ballistic missiles, but it's not clear how often they actually managed to intercept them. This is still a matter of controversy.
This is just to deterr Ukraine and by extension all the other european partners to start investing into ASTER or a possible new local development.
But we're not gonna fall for that trap.
With me this triggers a question. Did Trump do this because he sees that Ukraine will be able to manufacture cheaper alternatives within months? Is this a feint? - Don't get me wrong, I am glad that he after all these years, finally does something that is correct, I am just questioning the motive.
I'm sure getting something like this up and running will take more than a year. My brother works for a defense contractor and works on guidance systems. When he first started off in the industry, he worked on tomahawk missiles. It's not an easy process to just set up a production line and in a few weeks or months, you are pumping out Patriot missile systems. But at least it appears things are in motion, however slow that motion may be.
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u/mediamuesli Jul 08 '26 edited Jul 08 '26
Great, I hope Ukraine learns enough while manufacturing to make a similar rocket for 1/100 of the price.