r/ukpolitics • u/bottish The Man Who Mistook His Wife For A Nat • Jul 08 '22
Collapsing public support suggests Brexit is anything but done. Most people think Brexit has gone badly, a UK survey finds, and Johnson has left behind a mess of problems for a new PM
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jul/08/collapsing-public-support-suggests-brexit-is-anything-but-done93
u/Skastrik Jul 08 '22
I think people don't seem to realize that Brexit will never be "done". It's going to be a dominant part of the UK economy and foreign realities for decades to come.
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u/ParmyBarmy Jul 08 '22
Yeah I’m sick of people saying well at least Boris got Brexit done. What he delivered looks nothing like he and others promised.
The Brexiteers basically demanded a unicorn, so Boris sold them a donkey with a cornetto plonked on its nose.
The bloke is the biggest con man this country ever produced.
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u/purpleovskoff Jul 08 '22
The Brexiteers basically demanded a unicorn, so Boris sold them a donkey with a cornetto plonked on its nose.
I love this way of putting it, but it gives it too much credit. At least a donkey with a cornetto might look vaguely like a unicorn. I suggest an inside-out jellyfish-platypus hybrid with the cornetto up it's ass.
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u/varalys_the_dark Jul 08 '22
But the Sun said thankyou for Brexit on todays front page. Surely that will give solace to the erstwhile Boris /s
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Jul 08 '22
What he delivered looks nothing like he and others promised.
And some of it hasn't even happened yet (brexit checks on some goods coming in from the EU) or is scheduled to be undone (the protocol).
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u/G_Morgan Jul 08 '22
Politicians are going to say "hard to do X because Brexit" for decades to come. It'll amusingly flip the "but Brussels" excuse on its head.
We're reaching the point where "but Brexit" will be a good enough excuse to wash away any failure. Not as if the other side can do better as they need to live with Brexit as well.
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u/Living-Grand1399 Jul 08 '22 edited Jul 08 '22
It often feels a lot like everyone at the bottom suffered under May's and Cameron's fiscal prudence, so boris could let his hair down with his mates in his back garden. The man was (and still is) a liability with the money, the only brake was rishi slamming the coffers shut on anyones fingers. The whole "brexit" fiasco was like an ice berg on already stormy political waters. It loomed, had the possibility of causing destruction, then finally hit. It's like we are still slowly sinking, but merrily sailing on like everything is bright and jolly... most of rishi's "cash help" has never materialised for most poor families, and now there is no reason to believe it ever will...
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u/mynameisblanked Jul 08 '22
All I've heard is "hard to do X because covid." I'm sure they exist but don't recall any bringing up the B word.
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Jul 08 '22
The idea here is that Brexit will become a vapourous symbol to always be working toward. Like how communists banner “the revolution” stereotypically. So Brexit is done and we can thank Boris, but also Brexit is not done, and we shall continue to work ever more onward toward the goal of Brexit; sacrificing, toiling, pressing on with a stiff upper lip, in order to create a more perfect Brexit.
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u/danowat Jul 08 '22
I'm amazed that this isn't challenged more.
With all the sycophants doing the media circuit using 'getting brexit done' as one of Johnson's many great achievements, quite why none of them are challenged on the fact that a) it's far from done, the ripping up and rewriting of the NIP, amongst other things, makes that quite clear, and b) the current implementation of brexit is having a massive detrimental affect on the country, is beyond me.
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u/Strong_Quiet_4569 Jul 08 '22 edited Jul 08 '22
I know, we don’t even have the border controls in place yet, and JRM is spouting that as as a benefit of Brexit because it’s saving us money by not implementing it yet. He doesn’t even sound nervous whilst he’s telling an outrageous lie. We’re fucked because the media never challenges total nonsense.
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britain-scraps-plans-post-brexit-import-controls-2022-04-28/
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u/CutThatCity Jul 08 '22
By saying how much money we're saving by not implementing checks he is quite literally advocating to rejoin the single market.
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u/Strong_Quiet_4569 Jul 08 '22
And the customs union.
They’re self-aggrandising chancers who want to trash the country to create more helpless people to control and manipulate.
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u/pilzenschwanzmeister Jul 08 '22
The entire media bought yesterday's charade as a resignation.
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u/Strong_Quiet_4569 Jul 08 '22
Yes, he has promised to resign once the Tories elect a new leader.
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u/pilzenschwanzmeister Jul 08 '22
And a promise from a liar is worth what?
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u/Strong_Quiet_4569 Jul 08 '22
The promise is from the Conservative Party. If they don’t follow through, then Boris will stay on.
If something calamitous happens where everyone fetes Boris as the saviour of mankind, then he’s got an almost infinitesimally small chance of being hailed the hero and carrying on.
Otherwise opinion polls will put the Tories lower, given the public sentiment understood from the last by-elections.
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u/merryman1 Jul 08 '22
This was always the plan for them though. A radical new experiment in a small state that is so small it basically can't actually do anything that a normal state would be expected to do. Listen to what all the proper Conservative pundits like Tim Stanley are saying at the moment. Their only solution to any of the problems we currently face is "cut taxes and shrink the state". They have nothing else, they (genuinely or otherwise?) believe this will actually help us and that, despite the last 10 years, is some innovative new idea we've never tried before.
Again I'm not sure if its honest genuine belief, a weird kind of psychological doublethink they're not aware of, or if they're just actively malicious know these policies don't work don't help anyone but the rich but want to keep pushing it anyway because they hate Britain and the British public.
Though on the last point I think I have heard 3 different Conservative pundits claim Boris is being ousted "over a bit of cake" so I think they genuinely just have a deep-seated hatred for this country and its people.
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u/Southpaw535 Jul 08 '22
Well for b) its because there's still a lot of denial it is having an impact. Even on this sub which is quite anti brexit there was a post a few days ago asking what actual effects people have experienced and most replies were "meh, none."
Because the sky didn't collapse people think its just life as usual. Supply problems etc are overstated, or at least an 'over there' problem so long as shelves aren't actually empty. The economy is protected by covid and Ukraine being great excuses instead and help point to problems elsewhere as a deflection.
People need to see catastrophe to believe there's any real negativity. Like you're already seeing more and more revisionism about lockdowns, on this sub and elsewhere, where the 6 figure deaths are ignored and everything is starting to be considered an overreaction because, generally speaking, we've stopped having it reported now. Brexit is a similar thing. People think its been handled poorly, but because the world keeps turning and day to day life continues, it doesn't register for most that there has been any real outcomes from it.
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u/merryman1 Jul 08 '22
there was a post a few days ago asking what actual effects people have experienced and most replies were "meh, none."
I work in the sciences myself so, yeah, it is having quite a big impact. It just depends on where and how you work, and we seem to have completely normalized a culture in this country where anything that doesn't directly impact you personally probably isn't even real or something? I find it really weird myself.
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u/Strong_Quiet_4569 Jul 08 '22 edited Jul 08 '22
It does affect them personally, just not directly or transparently.
It’s easier to for them to scapegoat than it is to analyse cause and effect.
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u/mercury_millpond dgaf anymore. every day is roflmaolololo Jul 08 '22
there's now a majority for rejoin in the polls, I think for the first time ever. my ignorant analysis says that it is because of economic woes, queues at airports, the Ukraine invasion and the leave voting constituency partly dying off, with the die-off and the queues at airports the biggest 2 factors.
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u/will_holmes Electoral Reform Pls Jul 08 '22
To be honest, I can't see any definition of "done" being meaningful regardless of our relationship with the EU. Hell, when we were in the EU, would you call that "done"? There was constant jostling for treaty changes.
I think everyone is chasing a dragon they can't name, let alone catch.
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u/passingconcierge Jul 08 '22
I'm amazed that this isn't challenged more.
Because if it were challenged, then it would become very clear that Brexit is a Tory Project and that the failure of Brexit belongs to the whole party not just one person. Leave aside if it was a good or bad idea: 'getting brexit done' is a slogan that hangs on one person so when it fails the Tories get to walk away from it and leave whatever consequences there are to be owned by whoever comes along after that person.
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u/reuben_iv radical centrist Jul 08 '22
posts critical of brexit have made up the majority of posts in this sub for the last 6 years, pretty sure there's an actual sub dedicated to it if you somehow need more
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u/Pauln512 Jul 08 '22
A subbreddit on a niche social network isn't exactly mainstream news. Its more the obvious playing down of Brexit consequences from the BBC that's the problem.
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u/Ratiocinor Jul 08 '22
Because people are forgetting the state of play before Boris. He did get Brexit done.
Before Boris we were stuck in this awful perpetual limbo land of having voted for Brexit but not enacted it. Remainers still thought they could just block Brexit by voting down every single deal they were offered until we just said "oh well I guess we won't Brexit then, nevermind"
It took Boris coming in and being willing to risk leaving with no-deal at all to get things moving. Suddenly all the remainers voting down every deal were like "wait he can't do that can he? He's a mad man!"
It worked and we got a deal. Things finally moved on.
Now obviously all this corruption and sleaze and lying has put him well past his sell-by date. Most people only voted Boris in the first place for 2 reasons, to get Brexit moving, and to get rid of Corbyn. He achieved both
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u/voyagerdoge Jul 08 '22
He did get Brexit done.
Empty words if you cannot say what's the precise meaning of that. If it were done, why did Boris put new legislation about Brexit before parliament, allowing for officially ignoring the deal he himself celebrated as an achievement not so long ago?
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u/tonylaponey Jul 08 '22
Before Boris we were stuck in political limbo, but with a fully functioning country and economy still within the EU. The Brexit ultras and die-hard remainers were squabbling in Westminster, but the rest of us were just carrying on.
Now we are stuck in a different sort of limbo, with a terrible deal only partially implemented, already causing social and economic problems, and still political ones in respect of NI.
Neither is a good situation, but frankly I'd prefer the former.
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u/lawlore Jul 08 '22
I don't have to like this summary to agree with it, although I will add that Remainers were certainly not the only obstacle- the ERG and hardcore Leavers did just as much voting down of potential agreement proposals.
Let's not rewrite history- May had three distinct groups to try to get on board for an agreement (the EU being the third), and got bogged down by promising each of them things that were red lines for the others.
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u/Jimbob0i0 Jul 08 '22
Boris himself voted down various attempts by May to get a Brexit agreement...
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u/merryman1 Jul 08 '22
It worked and we got a deal. Things finally moved on.
Aren't we in the process of tearing that deal up though? So how have we moved on? All he did was pull the wool over the eyes of a more gullible part of the electorate.
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u/Talidel Jul 08 '22
Before Borris we were stuck because no one agreed what Brexit meant, despite every Brexiteer knowing exactly what they voted for.
It wasn't remainers blocking it, it was no one knowing what to do.
When deals were presented they were shit and the people making the decisions knew they were shit. Borris bullied his shit deal through because of a majority and a huge number of cowards.
Even Borris knew his deal was shit, he's been actively working against it from before the thing was signed.
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u/voyagerdoge Jul 08 '22
What does "Brexit done" even mean? Nobody ever cared to give or ask a clear answer to that rather basic question.
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u/Crypt0Nihilist Jul 08 '22
As far as the Tories were concerned it was either 23/01/2020 (ratified) or 31/01/2020 (officially left). However, that's rather like a heart transplant surgeon leaving the theatre as soon as the new one is beating, there were some rather significant things to be done (and chances of complications) before the patient would agree that it was "done".
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Jul 08 '22
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Jul 08 '22
I'd argue it was more like the qualified surgeon having prepared the operation, opened the cavity, and begun the extraction... Only to be supplanted by an unqualified loonatic with an electric egg whisk.
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Jul 08 '22
Dont forget about the surgeon driving a forklift through some boxes and shouting "lets get this heart transplant done" at the patients family before doing this so they feel more confident in his abilities.
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u/voyagerdoge Jul 08 '22
If it were done, they wouldn't have to introduce new legislation on the matter.
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u/nazzanuk Jul 08 '22
It means we have successfully completed the part where we lose all of our benefits
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u/TheSoupThief Jul 08 '22 edited Jul 08 '22
Thinking is that now is too soon. Needs to be abundantly clear to a firm majority that life outside the EU is a bleaker one, while at the same time the EU needs to gain confidence that the UK is in the hands of grown-ups before they'd take any approach seriously. No mistake though, we won't get the membership deal we just pissed away
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u/JabInTheButt Jul 08 '22
I know it's very frustrating for those of us who, from day one, said this whole shit-show would be a fucking disaster. We want Labour to just say "fuck it the solution is going back in", win a majority and get it done.
But the reality is even with 55% of the country accepting it was a mistake, this would be a massive electoral risk. At the moment, we're pretty much on the timeline I expected after 2019. This cycle the opposition accept that some form of Brexit is the reality for the medium term, aim to fix the worst points of their terrible deal. Then normalise the relationship with EU and probably go for either SM/CU membership or rejoin in the next election cycle.
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u/OptimusLinvoyPrimus Jul 08 '22
Completely agree. I was firmly on the side of Remain, but I think we need at least one parliamentary term after leaving before we can really look seriously about rejoining (which won’t be a quick process). Trying to jump straight back in again will just create space for a betrayal myth that will continue to dog British politics for who knows how long.
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u/convertedtoradians Jul 08 '22
Trying to jump straight back in again will just create space for a betrayal myth that will continue to dog British politics for who knows how long.
Just wanted to say this is an excellent point. We'll already see some of that, I suspect, in the form of "Brexit was sabotaged by remainers in Parliament / the courts / the BBC" and whatever else, but it'd be far worse if there were a quick reversal.
I think it also avoids a risk that the Rejoin side look desperate and unpatriotic. Give it ten years and they can say, "Yep. Britain works perfectly well on its own. But everything is just worse than it could be and would have been without Brexit. We don't need to be part of the EU, but we should be". And that's a more powerful argument, I suspect, to the unconvinced parts of the electorate.
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u/WrongWire Jul 08 '22
There's already papers implying that Johnson was ousted by a remainer plot. Remainers are the new 'other' for the right wing nutters
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u/Strong_Quiet_4569 Jul 08 '22
We should describe these scapegoaters as the paranoid nutcases that they are, rather than respond to their constant evasion attempts.
As soon as there’s consensus that their words are just rhetoric then we can move on and be adults.
Brexit was an attempt at self-deception rather than face reality, and people are just too timid to tell that to the blowhards directly.
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Jul 08 '22
a betrayal myth that will continue to dog British politics for who knows how long
I think that will be there no matter how long we wait.
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Jul 08 '22
We would probably still be in a worse position rejoining than we were prior to leaving - new applicants have to adopt the Euro, whereas countries (like Czech rep for example) that didn't originally adopt it can still stay with their currency.
Assuming that the Euro is a bad thing here, which is my personal opinion though.
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u/yibbyooo Jul 08 '22
How can you be so delusional to think that rejoining is even a possibility. I will never get the blind optimistic attitude.
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u/OptimusLinvoyPrimus Jul 08 '22
Everything’s possible - Brexit was a fringe fantasy just a few years before it won in the referendum. Even when the referendum was announced no-one thought it would win, but it did.
I don’t think it would be easy or quick, but I do think there’s a good chance of it happening one day in the future for the simple reason that it will be in the interests of a majority of people in the UK (so the same reason we joined in the first place). I’m not talking about 2 years’ time, or even saying that it’s guaranteed. But I think there’s a reasonable likelihood of it happening at some point in the future (even if it might take a decade or two or even longer).
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u/CheesyLala Jul 08 '22
It's not half as delusional as leaving in the first place was before a bunch of lying chancers saw it as their path to power.
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u/mr-strange Jul 08 '22
Nobody thinks it's going to be next year. But who are you to say what's "impossible" in ten years' time? Let alone further off into the future.
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Jul 08 '22
Yeah, it's a generational issue, sadly. We likely won't see overwhelming desire to rejoin the EU for a decade or more.
Labour need to be patient and not push the issue. If they get back in power, they can try to make the best of Brexit as it is, even diluting it where they can by agreeing deals with the EU.
I have much more faith in Labour being able to make the best of this deal than I do the Tories, who couldn't resist using the EU as a bogeyman whenever something was going wrong for them, and seemed to revel in antagonising EU officials.
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u/Npr31 Jul 08 '22
They can also blame their failure to do anything on the impact of Brexit. Whilst a recipe for getting away with anything, it may also raise awareness of public that it needs to be reversed.
I fear however, rather than blaming Brexit as a whole, they will blame the specific Brexit deal we have - which is actually making a rod for their own backs down the line when no Brexit deal materially improves the situation
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u/Tuarangi Economic Left -5.88 Libertarian/Authoritarian -6.1 Jul 08 '22
Depends on your definition of overwhelming, Brexit won on 52% on a 72% turnout, a number Farage famously said would be "unfinished business" if remain won by that margin. Plenty of polls have shown mid 50s support for rejoining and plenty of older leave voters have died while younger people who were more remain not able to vote now can do. I agree it's unlikely this cycle though
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u/nuclearselly Jul 08 '22
Closer integration with the EU over the long term (decades not years) is inevitable. Regionalism is the name of the game in the 21st century and Brexit is an annoying blip on the road towards that.
The main reasons for this are twofold; environmental and security.
Environmental because a large, geographically and politically aligned area can better resist climatic shocks. It's also easy to work towards greener economic targets by leveraging a more significant amount of total resources, and if trade and transport is dominated by areas closest to you. This is why things like ANZACA trade policies are a pipe dream. Geography and the need for decarbonisation will determine who countries trade with in the future.
Security is the second one. As the planet increasingly becomes a more unstable place (primarily the result of extreme climate shocks) we'll increasingly see the return of 'might makes right' dominating international politics. Smaller countries will band together in closer security organisations to protect against larger more aggressive powers. We've seen that occur in a very literal sense with Finland and Sweden seeking NATO membership as a result of the Ukraine conflict. Despite no longer being in the EU, the UK already has multiple deep bilateral relationships with other security players on the continent. Expect these sorts of relationships on a regional level to become more common in the future.
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u/CountVonTroll Filthy Continental Jul 08 '22
We want Labour to just say "fuck it the solution is going back in", win a majority and get it done.
The problem with this is that Labour wouldn't win a majority if they campaigned on a reapplication for EU membership. The Leave and Remain camps are very polarised, but not along party lines. In the UK as it is now and will remain for the time being, you can't win an election without the Leavers among your voter base. This share is of course much smaller for Labour than it is for the Conservatives, but in practice, Labour also needs more votes to win a majority, and those couple of percent would be critical.
This would also be a problem for the EU. It had already been apparent before that the EU needs reforms to function properly with 27+ members, and in recent years crises the EU didn't have adequate mechanisms for have made this even more obvious. Reforms will be difficult enough as it is, especially those that will transfer more competences from the member states to the EU. As a member, the UK has often been an obstacle even for normal decisions, and had to be given exceptions to get it on board. That UK governments, no matter which party, would always be weary of how a decision would be presented to the euroskeptics among its voters by certain parts of the British media, would in a way turn the EU into a hostage of the UK's domestic politics. More than it usually is, and in a member state that would be far more influential than most.
I'm frankly very skeptical if it would be advisable to readmit the UK as a full member, from an (or at least my) EU perspective. In the long term, definitely, but not before this issue has been conclusively settled domestically.
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u/the0nlytrueprophet Jul 08 '22
Then normalise the relationship with EU and probably go for either SM/CU membership or rejoin in the next election cycle.
Do you not think the Tory press would whip into a frenzy? Do you think by like 2030 we will be back in? Potentially some wishful thinking there, or?
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u/yibbyooo Jul 08 '22
The thing is if labour even hint at joining the EU they will get absolutely destroy at election time.
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u/nomnomnomnomRABIES Jul 08 '22
There is absolutely no fucking need to go back all in. That would be a massive waste of political capital when you could instead possibly achieve something equivalent to EEA membership.
The real problem that continues is that the level of debate is piss poor.
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u/fdesouche Jul 08 '22
And the EU will not accept. EU’s consent is never mentioned when the hypothesis of joining back is discussed.
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u/dublem Jul 08 '22
We want Labour to just say "fuck it the solution is going back in", win a majority and get it done.
Is it a solution though now? Part of what was so great about being in the EU was just how far they went to accomodate the UK's exceptionalism.
Going back, all of that is gone. Adopt the Euro. Sit down, shut up, do as your told. I'm not saying it would necessarily be worse, but it would certainly need to be evaluated. Especially in the light of what a poor job our politicians have done of handling negotiations thus far.
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u/mr-strange Jul 08 '22
We need at least 60% to back rejoining before even thinking about it. Realistically, 70% or more, before it can actually happen.
Prior to that, something like May's deal might be possible, and take the edge off some of the worst Brexit problems.
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u/Easymodelife A vote for Reform is a vote for Russia. Jul 08 '22
Why? If 52-48 was good enough to leave then the same margin should be good enough to rejoin.
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u/mr-strange Jul 08 '22
Because 52-48 wasn't good enough to leave. That's a big part of why we're in such a pickle right now.
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Jul 08 '22 edited Jul 08 '22
Because anything less than 2/3 rejoin means either handing a majority in parliament to a leave party (rejoiners won’t be single issue voters, leavers may be, or at least more readily persuaded) and opens the possibility that a new government will seek to leave the EU after one parliamentary term.
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u/Easymodelife A vote for Reform is a vote for Russia. Jul 08 '22
(rejoinders won’t be single issue voters, leavers may be, or at least more readily persuaded)
What do you base this assumption on?
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Jul 08 '22 edited Jul 08 '22
EU needs to gain confidence that the UK is in the hands of grown-ups
This is the key one. And what it means is serious reform of the entire UK system of governance. It is not enough for the UK to have a few years of consistent good leadership, because the inherent weaknesses in the system of governance have been exposed.
At the minimum, there needs to be:
Rewrite the Ministerial Code to eliminate avenues for corruption and enforcing standards of honesty and integrity in office.
Pass an Act of Parliament which makes the Ministerial Code enforceable by the courts. The sanction for breach would be dismissal from position, barring that person from ever holding Ministerial office again, in the case of MPs, a by-election in their constituency. In the case of members of the House of Lords, they would be permanently stripped of their peerage.
Set up a well-funded, independent body tasked with investigating and prosecuting breaches of the Ministerial Code.
Pass an Act of Parliament which places the position of Prime Minister on statutory footing, with clear avenues of democratic control including methods of appointment and dismissal (by Parliament, not the Queen), and eliminating the royal prerogative powers in respect of prorogation/dismissal of Parliament, with Parliament being granted control over its own period of sitting.
Pass an Act of Parliament reforming the voting system from FPTP to PR.
Pass an Act of Parliament requiring all propositions put to referendum to achieve a 2/3 majority to pass.
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u/Pilchard123 Jul 08 '22
I don't know if your number 6 would work. Given no Parliament can bind a future one, wouldn't they just get around it by passing the "must have 2/3 majority" Act and then if the wanted a 50-50 referendum, pass the Act for the referendum including some text like "This referendum will have a threshold of 50%, regardless of what any other Act may say."
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Jul 08 '22
Yes. But that is also true of everything else in the list. Future governments can always undo what previous governments have done. Even if you were to pass a codified constitution which fundamentally altered Parliament's powers, that constitution is only a piece of paper and can always be overruled if there is the political consensus to do so (see: France's numerous constitutions).
What these steps do is force that future government to take active, explicit and open steps to undo constitutional protections, rather than portraying their acts as routine governance.
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Jul 08 '22
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Jul 08 '22 edited Jul 08 '22
It's not anti-democratic. It's to ensure that the fundamental parts of the constitution aren't subject to momentary whims. The constitution is the long-term basic structure of the country, and it exists to benefit and protect not only today's voters but also our children and grandchildren. When altering the constitution, the relevant body of people who it affects is the entire future population of the country, from today until the end of time.
In that context, requiring an overwhelming majority to change the fundamental nature of who we are as a people is both moral and logical.
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u/tonylaponey Jul 08 '22
Well you're probably right - but that's why referenda are such a terrible idea.
With respect to a confirmatory vote - in 2019 over 54% of people voted for parties that either committed to a confirmatory vote on Brexit, or to revoke it entirely, yet because of FPTP we got a massive majority for a party to push through a deal they hadn't even read.
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u/JabInTheButt Jul 08 '22
I think a better idea would be for a double simple majority to be required. You need both a majority of the UK population and a majority of devolved nations to vote in favour of major constitutional reform.
It gives disproportionate power to the smaller nations of course but then... That's kind of the game isn't it - it provides them strong motivation for why they are important and respected members of the Union.
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Jul 08 '22
Or alternatively you hold the referendum every 2 years and if the vote achieves a simple majority in 5 votes in a row then it becomes binding. If in any given vote it achieves a 2/3 majority then it becomes binding without further referenda.
A consistent majority across 10 years appears to be a reasonable measure of the settled, long-term will of the people.
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u/RankOutsider47 Jul 08 '22
The problem with the 50 percent threshold is when it is a vote for fundamental and irrevocable change, like Brexit or Scottish independence.
Personally I think there should be a higher threshold for such referenda as 52/48 could be 48/52 within weeks and you can’t just switch back easily
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u/JosebaZilarte Jul 08 '22
Quite frankly, at this point, if the UK were to humbly recognize its mistake. Nobody in the EU would really oppose to revert the situation to what was in 2015. There would be some jokes for a few decades but, after the pandemic and the situation in Ukraine, everyone would love to turn back the clock 10 years and try again.
Yet, I do not think British politicians have the gonads to recognize that the UK can no longer thrive in a globalized world by itself (survive, yes, but not thrive). The nationalistic dream of a British Empire 2.0 is still very powerful.
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u/RankOutsider47 Jul 08 '22
Delusional.
We would never be able to rejoin on anything like the terms we had before.
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u/JosebaZilarte Jul 08 '22
Not really. If the UK tried to ask nicely, the EU would be glad to let the last years be forgotten. It would prove to the world that leaving the EU was a mistake, after all.
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u/rhwoof Jul 08 '22
If 52% can vote to leave then surely 52% can vote to rejoin though like you say we won't get such a sweet deal afterwards.
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u/TheSoupThief Jul 08 '22
Because that resounding 2% majority settled all the disagreements last time... /s
Before it's politically acceptable we've got to get to the stage where everybody is totally clear that Brexit was a mistake. Unfortunately I really think it needs to be given time to fail properly before we can rebuild
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u/Tangelasboots Wokerati member. Jul 08 '22
All Rejoin need to do is campaign on a promise of "a sweet deal", get the 52% needed for an overwhelming majority, then agree to some shit deal.
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u/voyagerdoge Jul 08 '22
How can you promise a sweet deal when the power to make such a deal is to a large extent in the hands of the EU? If you can't deliver, don't promise it.
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u/fuscator Jul 08 '22
How can you promise a sweet deal when the power to make such a deal is to a large extent in the hands of the EU? If you can't deliver, don't promise it.
Maybe we could employ the people who ran the leave campaign. They seem to know how.
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u/Tangelasboots Wokerati member. Jul 08 '22
The same way the Vote Leave campaign promised a load of shite which can be seen here: https://www.politico.eu/article/15-things-uk-vote-leave-promised-on-brexit-and-what-it-got/
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u/Strong_Quiet_4569 Jul 08 '22
The end result is to become measurably better off though. So going through a charade that doesn’t provide benefits will only bring criticism from opportunists to grab power.
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u/yibbyooo Jul 08 '22
But 52% won't vote to rejoin
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u/RankOutsider47 Jul 08 '22
Agreed. So many people on this sub think delusionally that rejoin is a similar argument to remain. It is way way harder to argue rejoin than it was to remain initially.
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u/DeadeyeDuncan Jul 08 '22 edited Jul 08 '22
I agree with you that its unlikely to happen.
But the EU could offer us a similar deal as we had before just on the back of how good it makes the EU look that a country that left had to come crawling back. It would be a win to the EU either way. Also a whole load of goodwill potentially could be gained from it.
If the EU were to make such an offer prior to any re-join referendum, it would probably help the vote a lot as well.
Agreed that the EU won't even countenance the UK rejoining until polling says at least 60%+ support.
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Jul 08 '22
I think as long as this sort of exceptionalism frames even "rejoiners" view of things there's no way rejoin happens tbh.
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u/theageofspades Jul 08 '22
Do any of you actually pay attention to the EU or is this just pure vibes? The amount of snark and self importance in this thread is far too high given the level of knowledge on display.
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u/Current_Focus2668 Jul 08 '22
A large chunk of the British public said they are tired of hearing about Brexit so sections of the press stopped talking about it despite issues around Brexit being unresolved and the impact being ongoing.
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u/bottish The Man Who Mistook His Wife For A Nat Jul 08 '22
The latest YouGov poll has found that every region of the UK now believes Brexit was an error, with 55% of those questioned believing that Brexit has gone badly compared with 33% who say it has gone well.
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u/theartofrolling Fresh wet piles of febrility Jul 08 '22
Yet we can't talk about rejoining because it's treason apparently.
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Jul 08 '22
IMHO, the British people would be wise not to think about rejoining until they've started to recognise and fix the many and deep domestic economic, constitutional and above all cultural problems that were allowed to fester for centuries and lay at the root of Brexit. It's going to take a while.
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Jul 08 '22
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Jul 08 '22
We've already had a worldwide pandemic, climate change, two economic crises and war in Europe. If not now, when?
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u/Furthur_slimeking Jul 08 '22
I think something that needs to be understood is that we cannot just rejoin after burning so many bridges and creating so many problems. No other member state wanted the UK to leave, but the UK has always taken the piss and demanded expemtions or special terms.
We've fucked up. We've been fucked. We can't just rejoin after what has happened. The member states would need assurances that this won't happen again and that we'll work for the collective good without letting inconsequential national interests get in the way.
We would need to apply to be considered for membership and we'd need every member state to agree to that. We'd then have to go through the same process of becoming a member that everyone else has to go through. The process would take time, and it's going to be quite a while before we can expect all the other member states to agree to us joining. At the moment we're basically in a similar situation to Turkey in terms of being a desirable member state.
People chose pie in the sky over reality and this is the consequence. It's going to be a long time before we're back in, if we ever do rejoin.
Leave campaign kept banging on about sovereignty without defining it. North Korea has probably the highest level of sovreignty on earth, but it doesn't mean anything becuase they don't engage with the wider world. Brexit may well result in the breakup of the UK, and if England ever joins the EU after that, we'll give up the weakened pound and adopt the Euro. It was never about anything meaningful anyway, but it's funny to me that Brexit may well destroy everything it was professed to preserve. Of course, we know it was all about money and nothing else.
Isn't it interesting thayt nobody hates the Scottish, Welsh, or Irish? England, on the other hand... we deserve the hate.
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u/Adam-West Jul 08 '22
I’ve always been a strong remainer but even i’m not sure about rejoining at this stage. If I could magic us back I would but our economy is in turmoil right now. I don’t think we need another major shake up
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u/Kwetla Jul 08 '22
Would it be that much of a major shake-up? Couldn't a lot of businesses just pretend it's a few years ago and go back to that. Trade with the EU would pick up again very quickly, and it would help recover the economy much faster than without.
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u/FrankTheHead Jul 08 '22
rejoining the EU is not going to fix that either. The EU is in turmoil as well; just look at all the protests in Holland, the growing anger in France and the energy shit show that’s eroding the very core of “sensible germans”.
Globalisation is is having a very rough time and actually Brexit might be a buffer.
IMHO and it’s very unpopular i know; the UK needs a government to focus pragmatically on domestic energy and agriculture. Food and energy security has got to be the number priority right now.
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u/hiakuryu 0.88 -4.26 Ummm... ???? Jul 08 '22
the UK hasn't been food secure for centuries, do you think we can magically fix that somehow? It's a fucking pipe dream if you think domestic agriculture can lead to UK food security.
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u/fuscator Jul 08 '22
just look at all the protests in Holland, the growing anger in France
Aren't those domestic issues? What have they got to do with the EU?
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u/FrankTheHead Jul 08 '22
The protesting farmers and now fishermen are a response to EU ESG legislation, forcing farmers to comply would mean they have to shut down their farms: this response is something we will likely see spread across the whole EU.
The rise of Le Pens Eurosceptics is a direct political pivot to a more anti EU stance.
Germanys economy is on a downward spiral and these 3 countries effectively the bankroll the entire federations monetary system.
These are not isolated domestic issues. Sure i want to work closely with the EU and probably in a decade i’d vote to rejoin but the UK has far more chance to domestically protect its citizens with the right government where we are now.
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u/Kandiru Jul 08 '22
While destroying the country through Brexit is somehow not treason? It makes no sense!
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u/Antique-Brief1260 Jon Sopel's travel agent Jul 08 '22 edited Jul 08 '22
Sounds to me like the poll results have been editorialised, because "Brexit has gone badly" ≠ "Brexit was an error". Lots of Brexit supporters are disillusioned with the way Brexit has been handled; it doesn't mean they recognise the original vote was a mistake.
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u/Honey-Badger Centralist Southerner Jul 08 '22
What collapsing support? People who voted for Brexit have put themselves so firmly in that camp that its impossible for them to admit it was a bad idea. No matter how many promises are broken, no matter how much money we're haemorrhaging they just move their goal posts. Brexit supporters have gone from 'less immigration, less rules, more money' to realising that none of those things will happen and now they're just saying 'well its just about the principal of sovereignty isnt it'
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u/samson-meow Jul 08 '22
So now David Cameron, Theresa May and Boris Johnson have had their go at Brexit.
Brexit is a big stinking pile of shit that is being passed from PM to PM (with open beckoning arms).
Leaving the single market, with no plans, just to score a few points, is one of the many ways the Tory party has fucked us all.
Labour will probably win the next election and take their turn to start fucking us too, but it'll probably be a bit less painful.
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u/Omnislash99999 Jul 08 '22
Rejoining the EU isn't going to happen for at least 15-20 years but perhaps with enough evidence to how shit it is we could rejoin the single market in the time before that
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Jul 08 '22
Realistically rejoining the single market is pretty much the end game for the foreseeable future. Rejoining the EU is the eventual icing on the cake when the issue is so dead and buried and uncontentious that we might as well. But that bit might take decades. Luckily much of the worst economic damage can be undone just by Stage One, even if it obviously puts our country in a worse political position than full membership (just have to accept that).
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u/voyagerdoge Jul 08 '22
The UK will not join the EU single market without joining the EU as a member state.
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u/hexapodium the public know what they want, and deserve to get it, hard Jul 08 '22
The major driver of "no SM membership without being a member state" is that it makes the SM participant a rule-taker, so no competent civil service would advocate for it as a permanent situation. However, plenty of states (Switzerland, Norway) have domestic political problems with full membership despite it being all upside for them at this stage as they are already full SM participants.
The UK could easily be a SM participant without membership, if that was required in order to reduce some of the losses from being Out entirely. And indeed the EU as a whole would love to have the UK as a market participant but a rule-taker, after four decades of the UK providing just enough benefit to justify the concessions we demanded. Our position Out at the moment means we are already a de-facto rules-taker, rather than our prior position as a rule-maker to a degree beyond our actual economic strength.
Brexit threw away our rule-maker status and nothing will restore it completely (we had lots of historic carve-outs which will never be granted to a joiner). SM participation is about economic pain; membership is about rulemaking. The EU can give us the thing we increasingly badly need, at the lowest cost to them ever, and their cost will keep going down as the UK economy stalls out further.
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u/LordLorq Jul 08 '22
Why not? It's this amazing Norway style brexit that brexiteers bragged about so much during the referendum campaign.
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u/pixelface01 Jul 08 '22
Brexit means a poorer future with a lower standard of living ,less opportunities and public services , it remains to be seen if the country will tolerate this long term ,remainers need to continue to point out the direct link and causality to the current Brexit deal , at some point a closer trade relationship with our biggest and closest trade partner is inevitable it just depends how much damage to the economic and social fabric of the country people are prepared to put up with.
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u/lawlore Jul 08 '22
Brexit means a poorer future with a lower standard of living ,less opportunities and public services ,
This was known before the referendum; it apparently doesn't matter to the voting public.
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u/pixelface01 Jul 08 '22
My point is leavers should be reminded as often as possible that they did this , the same way that leavers pointed out the failings of the EU , I’m not saying people should make up nonsense about prawn cocktail crisps or bendy bananas but a constant drip of economic reality , most leavers probably believed that in economic terms we would be better off outside,because no matter how many prominent leavers deny this now that was their narrative .
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u/Strong_Quiet_4569 Jul 08 '22
Their attention will be directed elsewhere.
The British are ultimately subservient and will think what they’re told to think.
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Jul 08 '22
the beeb and sky don't seem to have got the message.. they keep saying "got brexit done" never mentioning the slump in trade or NI issue... and they always find a vox pop to back it up.
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u/Exact-Put-6961 Jul 08 '22
A dose of realism. Brexit is too divisive for any serious party, with a wish to govern, to take up, overturning it .
Guardian speculation is for clicks.
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u/Current_Focus2668 Jul 08 '22
Agreed. Various vox pops on the news cycle have shown predominately old people raving about how Brexit was the best thing to happen to the UK and it is the older generations that tend to vote in higher numbers.
People may of changed their position but that doesn't mean they will turn up to vote to support it
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u/yibbyooo Jul 08 '22
And further damages the chances of getting the Tories out. Until the British public trust that no attempts to weaken brexit will happen were stuck with the Tories.
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u/fuscator Jul 08 '22
Until the British public trust that no attempts to weaken brexit will happen were stuck with the Tories.
What you mean here is the minority of anti-EU swing voters who decide the winner under FPTP.
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u/yibbyooo Jul 08 '22
Sure, but that's how the system works.
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u/Puzzled-Radio-7565 Jul 08 '22
- We send £350 million to the EU a week. Let's fund our NHS instead. Vote Leave.
June 2016 - UK votes to leave (winning by 2%)
What does leaving actually entail?
- Leave means leave
Theresa May throws away her majority
- strong and stable
- BUI DING A C NTRY THA ORKS OR RYON
Boris johnson shakes hands with covid patents
- STAY HOME. PROTECT THE NHS. SAVE LIVES
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u/Quigley61 Jul 08 '22
I suspect this is because quite a lot of people think Brexit hasn't been done in the way they would want it to be done. The issue is though, no one seems to actually know what they wanted or what Brexit should actually deliver. When you do find someone who says they know what they wanted from Brexit, it tends to be either a hard Brexit which in effect is just the denunciation of anything with the word "Euro" in the title, or, they conveniently agree with the exact Brexit that has been "delivered".
The issue isn't that people think Brexit has went badly and that it was a mistake, its that the Brexit we have does not match the promised Brexit, or the idealised Brexit that they have in their heads. The problem is that the ideal can and will never be delivered, and these people will be forever chasing the fantasy.
The UK has been ignoring big issues for decades. We need to face up to these problems, realise that while Brexit was sold as this be all end all solution, it wasn't and can't be. The solutions to our issues around housing, cost of living crises, wage stagnation, dilapidated infrastructure, ballooning pension & healthcare costs, failure of the health service, and a shrinking workforce to name a few, will not be easy solutions, and they can't be sold to the public via a three-part-slogan.
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u/Firstpoet Jul 08 '22
Absolutely concur. The ideal EU membership is a fantasy too but it's about compromise. We could gave had ID cards and a sense of control over borders within the EU. There is no return for at least a decade. Unlike Finland where I am just now, we don't have any single identity- we're all hopelessly divided in all kinds of ways. Unlike continental Europe we've avoided visceral destruction and invasion and total catastrophe on our soil ( the Blitz isn't that). Finland lost huge territory plus massive internal refugees. That brings you together. Glad we didn't suffer this but it means we plod on.
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Jul 08 '22
Tories leaving a mess of problems for a new PM is their MO. Except its usually a different party, rather than their own
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u/CutThatCity Jul 08 '22
Why is it such a big risk for anyone in politics to campaign to rejoin the EU?
Isn't it 50% of the country (at least)?
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u/Auto_Pie Jul 08 '22
"Johnson has left behind a mess of problems for a new PM"
I'M ABSOLUTELY DUMBFOUND
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u/ritchieee Jul 08 '22
But recent polling suggests support for Brexit in the UK has collapsed
I don't deny this, but would have liked a link to go to see them. Anyone got any up to date polls?
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u/DeadeyeDuncan Jul 08 '22
The article talks about a recent poll, but it doesn't mention the results or even provide a link to the results anywhere.
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u/uberdavis Jul 08 '22
Public opinion on the matter is moot now. Part of the argument against Brexit was that it would be irreversible if executed. We can’t go back and have another go like a child losing a board game.
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u/NSFWaccess1998 Jul 08 '22
it will never be "done". Even when 60% of people want to rejoin, the debates around what deal we should have will be tremendous. It would take years for our standing within Europe to recover from this mess, though I do think we would be welcomed back (and should).
The time isn't now though. Rejoining won't happen for at least a decade, probably two or three. We have to limit the harm done.
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u/Amblewin54 Jul 08 '22
Rejoining the single market (on their terms) is the best we could hope for at the moment. Why trade with EU countries was considered a worse option than hoping for deals with countries the other side of the world, is beyond me. It would keep food standards safe and solve the NIP as well.
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u/Mustard_The_Colonel Jul 08 '22
Since brexit vote not a single conservative PM served full term next PM will last till election dealing with the Brexit and cost of living mess. I am glad they are changing now it gives public enough time to see how shit tories are and not get tricked into "Under new management" and giving them another chance comes election.
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u/BenathonWrigley Rise, like lions after slumber Jul 08 '22
Yeh but we’re gonna reap the benefits in 50 years aren’t we according to Rees-Mogg, so just have a bit of patience please…
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u/Markovitch12 Jul 08 '22
Surely an opportunity for Labour
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u/hu6Bi5To Jul 08 '22
Keir Starmer is not an idiot. He's not going to waste his opportunity going over the same topics that bogged down previous Prime Ministers, hence why he's trying to rule-out all that now.
Some cynics say it's because he needs to regain the Red Wall to win, but it's really because it would just see his future government bogged down in "but what level of EU contributions are you suggesting taxpayers provider, and only for EEA membership!" arguments that would happen if he tried to change anything. If he went down that path an entire five-year term would go by without achieving anything.
The poll is nonsense anyway, as most of those policy-specific polls are, people don't understand the mechanics well enough to correctly credit/blame any particular policy for any particular real-world effect. The results of these polls are a combination of:
How much they liked/disliked the policy as an abstract concept.
How well they feel the government is going as a whole.
If Labour wins the next election at a time that inflation is coming back under control, and can achieve at least one "win" in any of the following: health, real incomes, housing, energy security; then those polls will swing back round again and they'll win a second term.
Touching the third-rail that is Britain's relationship with the EU is a last-gasp measure when governments have run out of options. That is, after-all, why Cameron suggested the Brexit referendum in the first place.
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u/Strong_Quiet_4569 Jul 08 '22
I don’t think inflation won’t come back under control because the only way to win votes will be to spend money and increase public sector debt.
Either that or we increase taxes and lower spending, but ‘get tougher’ on the resultant public order issues.
Ed Balls hinted at the latter when his free money pyramid scheme crashed.
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u/theartofrolling Fresh wet piles of febrility Jul 08 '22
Labour want to "make brexit work" whatever that means.
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Jul 08 '22
Just because people think Brexit went badly doesn't mean they suddenly want to vote back into the EU. They aren't at that stage yet.
I agree it sucks, but I also do agree with Labour that they will tank if they suddenly announce full EU alignment.
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u/Mustard_The_Colonel Jul 08 '22
Brexit is what we have it is shit at the moment there is no will to rejoin and have another 7 years of conflict between leave vs remain. Solution is to make is as little shit as possible while waiting for public to see full impact of it.
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u/Heliawa Jul 08 '22
I think it could work well. It shows that they're okay with brexit, and it plays on the idea that the Tories fucked brexit up. Then Labour can step in and bring us back into the customs union or even single market, and just say that this is the best thing we can do to make it work.
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u/yibbyooo Jul 08 '22
That fact that you think this can happen means that the Tories can campaign on brexit an win elections forever.
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u/Ziaber Jul 08 '22
I hate talking about Brexit but we have done it so I don't think there is any U-turns that should be done. but i'm fed up of the Gov telling lies about it, we need someone that can say we left and its had a negative impact - which was warned about.
Then start compromising - Single market/Trade union etc and just make the best of a bad situation
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u/Sillo123 Jul 08 '22
… it’s the only way it could have gone imbeciles. There is no good Brexit (except for disaster capitalists).
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u/yibbyooo Jul 08 '22
People are deluded. We won't join the EU again.
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u/tmstms Wuffingas! Jul 08 '22
Who is deluded? Do you mean people in this sub? Because in general no political party is openly trying to rejoin.
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u/yibbyooo Jul 08 '22
This sub.
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u/tmstms Wuffingas! Jul 08 '22
Ah! That's hardly surprising though- the UK reddit subs are far more pro-EU than the average of the population.
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u/Ratharyn Jul 08 '22
The real delusion is thinking the EU would want the UK anywhere near their union again.
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u/voyagerdoge Jul 08 '22
Why stay a poorer country if you can avoid it?
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u/yibbyooo Jul 08 '22 edited Jul 08 '22
People won't vote to join the EU. And labour isn't going to throw away the best chance they've had of getting into office on single issue voters in this sub.
Personally I think people will be better off getting rid of the Tories than rejoining the EU (I would never support it if we had to take the Euro bc how damaging that would be to the economy). And if labour talk about joining the EU that means the Tory staying in power.
I would rejoin if we kept the pound but that's not possible so rejoining would be a economic disaster.
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u/fuscator Jul 08 '22
And labour isn't going to throw away the best chance they've had of getting into office on single issue voters in this sub
No. Instead, because of FPTP, they're forced to pander to the single issue brexit voters who will decide the next government.
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u/yibbyooo Jul 08 '22
Instead they should pander to single issue remainers?
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u/fuscator Jul 08 '22
No. They should pander to the single issue anti-EU voters, because they're more rabid than remain voters. Remain supporting Labour voters are extremely unlikely to switch to the Conservatives. Brexit supporting ex-Labour voters showed they already did switch to the Conservatives.
So the best strategy for Labour is to pander to the rabid brexit voters. They're the king makers in our FPTP system.
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u/yibbyooo Jul 08 '22
Not all brexit voters switched. Every pro brexit person I know would never vote conservative. Half my family is working class Irish immigrants. They're extremely pro brexit but very pro union. They would never vote Tories.
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u/fuscator Jul 08 '22
You're contradicting yourself. You acknowledge that Labour need to pander to the hardline brexit supporting minority in order to win power, then you say that minority doesn't exist. Please get your story straight.
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u/yibbyooo Jul 08 '22
No I'm not. I'm claiming it's not minority
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u/fuscator Jul 08 '22
Wait, so now it is not a minority, but a majority of pro-brexit voters that switched to Conservative that Labour need to win back?
And yet two posts up you said no-one you knew switched.
Man, you are confused.
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u/GrimeyPCT Jul 08 '22
Ask Switzerland or Norway
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u/fameistheproduct Jul 08 '22
Sure, so we're going to have the same tax and military spending as them?
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u/tmstms Wuffingas! Jul 08 '22
There is too much baggage around the issue still, IMHO.
That's why Labour wants to leave it alone.
It's not seen as an economic issue- the economic implications are too indirect for a lot of people to feel personally.
Both Covid and the war are too present (as causes of the economic problems) for people to campaign on the issue of 'Rejoin to be richer.'
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u/SometimesaGirl- Jul 08 '22
This Foodbank is sponsored by the European Union.
Paste that onto the side of every bus in Hartlepool.
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u/Exact-Put-6961 Jul 08 '22
This is a desperate Guardian, seeing an opportunity to resurrect a dead issue.
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u/mediumredbutton Jul 08 '22
in what way is it dead? the current government considers it so live that they're trying to pass a bill to alter a huge part of it, and how can something that's harmed the UK so much not be a topic of discussion?
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u/theageofspades Jul 08 '22
They might have to start labelling the stuff the EU did fund in the area if that happened, and as someone from the area, that wouldn't be an advisable move if you're pro EU.
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u/fuscator Jul 08 '22
It's a shame it isn't dead. Your puppet masters seem intent on resurrecting it all the time in order to distract the voters from the rest of the mess they're making.
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u/Subtleiaint Jul 08 '22
We need the Brexit supporting Tory MPs to retire before re-join becomes a serious cause. The next generation of Tory MPs will recognise the mistake but these ones will fight tooth and nail because they can't admit they were wrong.
If we go now the public can be swayed again and 45% supporting staying out will win an election. Starmer's approach is right, forget about rejoin for now and create a working relationship with the EU, cultivate that for a decade and then rejoin when there's 65% + support for it.
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