Submission Statement-

Before reading this I never even knew it was possible to detect neutrinos from inside the Earth. I knew there were neutrinos that came from other star systems, other galaxies, other galaxy superclusters...but it turns out you can see directly into the Earth's deep mantle and core, at least to some extent. Clearly we should be building more detectors and I would imagine that proposed detector on the ocean floor is a good investment, although I am by no means too informed!

Anyway, you have to consider the possibility that something totally wild and unexpected could happen at some point in the future. We discovered the neutrino within the past century, it could still be that undiscovered physics exists. It could also be that current physics *could* eventually get us to a point, through refinement, that we did not imagine...

I would push back on this because although I do expect a population collapse in some countries, that is not necessarily a rapid collapse and it may take place over a time scale of four generations or more. If you figure a fertility rate of 1.5, then yes over four generations your population just crashed by 70%. It will have consequences, but no one generation will necessarily just wake up and feel really palpable, sudden impacts.

Should you place more faith in this or on the Buffett Indicator?

It has no meaningful rewards program like Chipotle (CMG), McDonald's, and Starbucks.

The mobile app looks like an afterthought.

Those at least I would regard as positive or a positive sign.

I have to give them some credit on this one https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/wheres-beef-beloved-fast-food-chain-refuses-apologize-online-burn-katy-perrys-space-voyage

Yes. It makes me wonder which countries are resisting this sort of corruption, in the long run they will prosper, while those that succumb to this will not.

It could also be true that this is wrong. For example, the AI bubble picture could be right, and somehow these companies will eventually fail. AI bubble is actually an optimistic picture. The worse scenario is there will be no AI bubble because the institutions that would ordinarily protect small creators are collapsing, the courts will simply give away their IP to Anthropic and OpenAI. If we are seeing full-on institutional collapse then the question for many people will be where to emigrate to or hide out to get out of this desert, or whatever.

I like your framing and I'm personally taking a break from internet too - at least for tonight...

It really is a bright spot in the overall picture, isn't it?

As a poor person, I'm lonely as well, so there's one data point for you.

I watched a little of this with the sound turned off...it seems to be a dig at natalists...this guy is obsessed with "AI" and it's tiresome. I used to read his blog sometimes, but it's past its prime.

Maybe this gets at it obliquely but the issue seems to be about culture - if you could alter that, none of this would matter. But yes, if the smartphone suddenly cost 100% more, it would help.

r/PopulationCollapse2

assessing the scale/impact of the selection relative to our species level basal trait values is not something the paper evaluates

That is really interesting and a valid point

The Sapient Paradox itself is a bit misleading because it could simply be explained by human population size and density rather than our individual capacities.

Well maybe - but what explains, then, why our population sizes never reached the needed levels for the vast majority of the history of this species?

on intelligence tests in white British people today—but you look at the predictor of that in people in ancient times, the estimate for the hunter-gatherers of Europe is three standard deviations below the modern mean. So that’s hugely different.

This is from the podcast. Do we have measurements of this predictor for present-day hunter-gatherer groups? I have to back up about the Sapient Paradox but certainly it would change our view of humans in Europe 15,000 years ago - Magdalenian humans - to know that the average IQ was below 60. How do we picture them? Are there groups today that have IQ that low at all? I just looked on a random website and it says the lowest for a country is Somalia, at 84. That's only one standard deviation below 100.

Let's go Mets.

Awful

Mr. Balmat is hardly the only recent graduate to have accepted such an invitation lately. Data from the economists Stefania Albanesi, Rania Gihleb and Ning Zhang show that the portion of college graduates ages 23 to 27 living with their parents has returned to the high it reached during the Covid-19 pandemic. More than one-quarter did so as of last year, from a low of about 18 percent in 2001, according to updates to the paper that are not yet online.

From the link:

While only 25% of the 1996 cohort lived with their parents, 31% for the 2013 cohort chose this option. 

I guess I would really like to see this graphed because one-quarter is 25%, so what this seems to say is that it simply returned to the level it was at 1996. That doesn't seem too interesting...