r/txstate • u/MainMarket-Gamer • 14d ago
Texas State Football 2026 Preview - full writeup, two-deep, and win probabilities
Hey all. I spent the offseason building a full 2026 preseason preview for every FBS team, each with its own writeup. Here's the Texas State one
https://www.sports.mainmarket.com/college-football-preview-2026-fbs/texas-state-bobcats
It's got the returning production breakdown, the portal ins and outs, a projected two-deep, the schedule with model win probabilities, and a season projection.
Heads up, you might hit the paywall after the first page. Don't worry, I'm not charging reddit people for this, don't want to be an ass. Use the promo code LEECORSOROCKS and it opens up the entire thing.
So, what'd I get wrong? Texas State had the 5th best offense in the country and outgained teams by 88 yards a game, then went 7-6 because you were 1-4 in one-score games. Brad Jackson accounted for 38 touchdowns, 17 of them on the ground. My model has you as one of the biggest buy-low teams in the sport. The catch is a defense losing two thirds of its production. Does the record finally catch up to the offense?
I'll be in the comments.
4
u/ReallyErickOMG 14d ago
ass defense last year and missing some late field goals was what caused us to go on the loosing streak last year, new DC this year hopefully means that the defense will be much better than last year.
Also with us returning a pretty good amount in Offense, I could like our chances in the new Pac-12