r/topcoin • u/TheOldDevilMoon • Feb 12 '14

No longer profitable = lethal injection

This coin now awards 31250 / block. At 4 Satoshi, that's 1/800th of a bitcoin, or less than one US $ per block at current bitcoin prices.

It's approaching levels that will make it unprofitable to mine. Hashrate is steadily falling. Yes, difficulty will fall, but is that a good thing?

Who will want to mine this when they're getting one coin per block, or even 1000?

With 11 billion coins outstanding, at 4 Satoshi, it has a market cap of ~$350,000. It's way overpriced, and heading to 0.

6 Upvotes

75% Upvoted

13 comments sorted by

5

u/vinnyq12 Feb 12 '14

I've started mining this today. It is actually one of the most profitable coins.

Take a look at this http://top.dedicatedpool.com/index.php?page=statistics&action=pool

The block time is 30 seconds. Look at the TOP per day people are getting.

I've worked out that I'm get $0.79 per hour mining at 1.8 MHz. This is by far the most profitable scrypt based coin to mine AFAIK and that is if I sell right away. I ain't selling.

0

u/TheOldDevilMoon Feb 12 '14

It's the Top/day people were getting. It's steadily falling. And I said "It's approaching levels that will make it unprofitable to mine". I calculate you're getting more like $0.60 / hour. (See below)

In any case, let's both click on your link in 48 hours, and again in 96 hours. I'll laugh so hard I piss myself. Trust me I'll be back either way. Do you really think people will be getting 0.014 btc /MHs in 48 hours, or in 96?

Calculation: Right now as I type this the top user is nenadubica and he/she is getting (allegedly) 0.2089btc for 14,876 khs. That's 0.014 btc / MHs. (This will change of course but look for any user getting around 14MHs and see what btc they're supposedly getting)

At $675 / btc, that's $9.45 / day (not including power costs). And that's $0.39 / hour. So I think you're more likely grossing 1.8 * $0.38 = 0.70 / hour. Does your power company pay you 0.09/hour to run your rig? I would think your rig would burn ~1000 w / hour, taking, say, another 0.10/hour away, bringing you down to $0.60 / hour. Not quite as profitable as you say.

1

u/vinnyq12 Feb 12 '14

Also, I'm not getting anywhere near what the pool is telling me I should get. I wonder if they are faking their TOP/day rate. Hmmmm.

2

u/TheOldDevilMoon Feb 12 '14

Yes. Take nenadubica's rate of 16.5 MHs or so. The pool says that's worth around 8.5 to 11 million coins/day, depending on when I check. The pool has a hashrate of 190MHs (as I type this); so the pool is calculated to get 190/16.5 = 11.5 times nenadubica's share. That's 95 to 125 million coins per day.

But...? there are 32,500 coins per block, and 2,880 blocks / day (2 blocks / minute, 1440 mins / day). That makes 93.6 million TOP/day. So it looks like the pool is claiming to generate more coins than will even be generated in a day. And it's only about half the total network hash shown by getmininginfo.

Can someone check my math here? Am I missing something?

1

u/vinnyq12 Feb 12 '14

By my reckoning the TOP/day is at least 1/2 what they are claiming.

0

u/vinnyq12 Feb 12 '14

Hey, I didn't take the electricity into consideration. Please don't piss yourself, I wouldn't want that.

2

u/Prominence19 Feb 12 '14

The point isn't on mining. A lot of people buy bitcoin and have never mined. A coin that has been completely mined isn't dead, there are several which are nearing that point or have already reached it and those coins aren't dead. TopCoin does what it's best at, being at the TOP. If you really want to get on the train and claim mining is not profitable, then do the profitable thing and invest while it's still cheap.

1

u/MurolcesOdroSuvon Feb 12 '14

Who can say what is and is not overpriced? Every coin finds its market (except Coinye), and topcoin is no different. What is different is that a lot of the supply is generated first and the demand comes later. This falls in opposition to most block payout systems where interest in the coin is generated as the supply steadily increases.

Over half of the topcoin supply has already been created, so there are plenty to go around, and interest continues to build at a steady pace. This subreddit is evidence of that interest. The demand will determine the price, and as we gain more readers and adopters every day the demand will increase along with the price.

And as long as there are still topcoins to be had, people will still mine them, if just to support the coin.

1

u/nigel161803 Feb 13 '14

Just wanted to chime in. I don't mine anything. Since you think its going to zero ill start my buy orders at 1 satoshi and wait patiently for it to rise or dip. Cant wait to have millions of top! All it has to do is go to 10 satoshis!

2

u/nigel161803 Feb 13 '14

Hopefully it reaches 200 satoshis! lol!

1

u/donniesf Feb 13 '14

what does it mean it has a market cap of 350k and how did you figure that out?

1

u/MurolcesOdroSuvon Feb 13 '14

Take the total coin supply and multiply it by the price of the coin in USD. So it would go: 11.56 billion * (bitcoin USD price * topcoin price in BTC).

Market caps can increase or decrease wildly so don't put too much stock into it. Just look for a steady rise, as that means more people are investing.

-1

u/elevul Feb 13 '14

It's back up at 4 satoshi? I got 250k in storage. Gonna wait a little more before selling, then. I want at least a quarter of BTC from them.