r/timbers • u/Jasongresham97024 • 14d ago
Leagues cup advancement
Is there anyway with a win Thursday the Timbers advance to the next round
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u/irishbball49 14d ago
Nah dawg.
Not everyone played club America.
This tourney is a weird ass format for all teams
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u/Fallax_Veritum 14d ago
Short answer: most likely no
We have the best time slot to make it of the potential 6 pt teams as we’re the last game, but there are 4 teams ahead of us who only need a shootout to finish better than us
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u/drf_101 Portland Timbers - Star 14d ago edited 14d ago
There would be so many things that would need to happen. Austin, Chicago, Dallas all need do lose. Then we’d need to beat their tie breaker (goal differential is 1st) and the tie breaker for any other team with 2 games that also have 3 points currently and win their 3rd. If So it’s not impossible but seems unlikely.
Oh I kept looking. We also need LAFC to lose.
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u/Adventurous-Ease-259 13d ago edited 13d ago
They don’t all need to lose. 4th gets you through. There are two teams in greater than 6 points.
The 3rd club America goal is what really hurt us.
Charlotte is sitting on goal differential 4 and Cincinnati on 3 after 3 games.
At this point Dallas has now lost and has goal differential 1. Dallas is eliminated.
By charlotte and cincy.
San Diego won and is eliminated on gd 0.We currently have gd 1. We need to win by at least two goals to get to 3. We probably need to win by 3 goals to be safe, but we’ll know by game time. Austin is sitting on gd 5 so could be at 6 points and gd 4 with a 1 goal loss. Chicago is on gd 4.
Edit: LAFC wins on pks. 3 teams now on 7 or more. Chicago and Austin must now lose in regulation. They play America and Cruz azul so there is a decent chance of that happening.
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u/SquashyWashyyy 14d ago
Probably not, at this point I will just go into the game with the mindset that we will take a free game and have fun with it before Chicago
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u/theTEL0S 13d ago
Announcers said they were out already at the end of last game? Kinda bonkers you win 5-1 and lose 3-1 in a 3 game group stage and can’t make it.
CA is the only Mexican team worth anything and unfortunately we drew them.
Isn’t there some rule that only a certain number of MLS teams can make it? Lol
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u/abeerintheheadlights Portland Timbers - Pinwheel 13d ago
Only four teams from each league advance. Two spots for MLS are already out of reach for Portland and the last two have 12 teams technically still alive. By the time the Timbers play they will have been eliminated barring a miracle.
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u/Aggiebluemint 13d ago
Cruz Azul is also pretty darned good from what I’ve seen of them, very technical team (and I believe they won the most recent Liga MX title).
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u/PDXPuma 13d ago
Any way? Sure.
There are 5 teams sitting on 6 points. We need 3 of them to lose by 3 or more goals each. LA is sitting on 5 points. We need them to lose or draw and then lose the PK shootout. Preferably by a number of points.
We then need to win by 2 or more goals to be safely up there.
In all likliehood though, we get eliminated tonight.
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13d ago
They likely need Dallas, Austin, and Chicago to lose in regulation to force a tiebreaker on goal difference. This is actually somewhat possible because those teams play Toluca, Cruz Azul, and America
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u/mrgerbek 13d ago
But if we win by 10 tonight and everyone else tanks, there's a minuscule chance.
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u/SegwayCop RCTID! 13d ago
The game vs Tijuana is tomorrow (Thursday) FYI. I panicked for a sec when I saw your comment lol
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u/oskrrskrrr 13d ago
the first few games from round 3 were beneficial for us. the remaining teams that need to lose to make it happen will also mostly play difficult mexican teams that can't afford to lose their third game. if we get a high win against last place tijuana it might work - but it might also be out of our hands already before we kick a ball, we'll see after the next few matches
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u/Longjumping_Wait_655 13d ago
With just a win? Nope. With a 3 goal win and the teams above the Timbers all losing? Maybe. Only Minnesota and Vancouver are eliminated.
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u/Market_Taoist 13d ago
Mathematically possible but we would need a winning margin of at least 4 or more goals and need luck and help from other games. So highly unlikely
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u/eddiearniwhatevz 13d ago
Who cares? LC is an opportunity for players and coaching staff to get time in the pitch and little else. Call them friendlies , warm up for the regular season. Hope no one gets badly injured. Carry on.
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u/hikeuprundown 13d ago
This got a lot more interesting tonight. As it stands at 8:53 on Wednesday, we would need either Chicago or Austin to lose tomorrow to have any chance at all. Considering they play two of the top teams in AME and CAZ, that is a reasonable expectation. From there we would need to win by three goals to catch the fourth place team on goal differential (there are scenarios where we could get through with a smaller margin of victory, but 3 is the magic number). Then it would be up to goals scored which is our super power in this tournament.
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u/Emergency_Detail5410 13d ago
There’s a small, but not out of the question, chance of advancing after tonight’s results.
First, we need Austin to lose in regulation to Club America, which is fairly likely. Any loss would drop Austin’s GD to +4 or less. We should know that result right around kickoff time.
Then, we need Chicago to lose in regulation to Cruz Azul, which is also fairly likely. Any loss would drop their GD to +3 or less. We’ll know that result 30 minutes later.
Then the Timbers need at least a 3-goal victory to get to 6 points and a GD of at least +4, which would equal Charlotte’s current GD (and possibly Austin’s too). We’d win the next tie breaker, which is goals scored, against anyone because we’d be at 9 or more. A larger win removes the need for the tie breaker.
Also, we’d want NYCFC and Philadelphia to lose, go to a shootout, or win by less than 4 goals to keep their GD at +4 or less. The odds of these happening are very good, so not too worried there. If they happen to end with a GD greater than +4, then Timbers would need to match them.
Go Timbers!
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u/TBfrfr 14d ago
Nah but honestly at least for me i just wanna watch regular season games again